• Additional Comments
• Media
• Nov 2013
• More analysis
• Carty in Campaign Mode?
• Perrysburg - Toledo Voters
• Another Nov 6, 2013 comment
• Nov 7 story

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21 min

Toledo voters by the numbers

(My Nov 4, 2013 comment in a ToledoTalk.com thread about Toledo's mayoral election.)

"Toledoans are the sons and daughters of farmers, heavy manufacturing factory workers, all made of hard working stern stuff ..."

I don't understand what that has to do with anything, but for the record, Toledoans are also the sons and daughters of nurses, designers, chefs, accountants, etc. who also work very hard.

The rest of this post could be a bit numbers heavy.

For most Toledoans, none of this politics stuff matters much anyway, and that's probably okay.

It was no surprise that Toledo's voter turnout in the September 2013 primary was 15 percent.

I don't know what the expected turnout is in Toledo for tomorrow's election, but I'm guessing it will be around only 30 percent.

Since the September 2013 primary had a lower turnout than the September 2009 primary, then I assume the same will occur with the November 2013 general election.

Toledo's voter turnout in the November 2009 election was 34 percent, so that's why I'm guessing tomorrow's Toledo voter turnout will be 30 to 32 percent.

And since some eligible voters are not registered to vote, then more than 70 percent of Toledo's eligible voters will not participate in tomorrow's election. That seems to be the biggest message of all.

Apparently, Toledo has only about 160,000 registered voters.

According to the census, Toledo's 2010 population was 287,208. 24% of residents were under the age of 18.

In the 2010 census, 68,930 Toledoans were too young to vote.

That means 218,278 Toledoans were eligible to vote. Granted, Toledo's population has declined a bit more since the 2010 census, so the number of Toledoans eligible to vote today may be around 215,000, but only 160,000 are registered.

A difference of 55,000? That seems off.

25 percent of eligible Toledo voters are not even registered to vote. Really?

In September 2005, Toledo had 189,454 registered voters. And that number today is allegedly around 160,000. That rate of decline among registered voters is greater than Toledo's population decline. Maybe that's because most of the people leaving the city or dying off were registered voters, leaving behind a growing percentage of unregistered voters in Toledo. That probably does not matter, since most of the registered Toledo voters don't vote.

Most Toledoans do not care about the outcomes of elections.

For the September 2013 primary, the only cities that held elections in Lucas County were Toledo and Maumee. The Lucas County BOE reported a total number of registered voters for that day of: 164,645. Take away the Maumee voters, and I'm guessing the Toledo number is about 160,000 registered voters.

The turnout is measured against registered voters and not eligible voters.

Let's be optimistic and say Toledo will have a "high" turnout tomorrow of 35 percent.

35% * 160,000 = 56,000 Toledoans will vote tomorrow out of approximately 215,000 Toledoans who are eligible to vote. (That's a real turnout of 26 percent.)

In Toledo's November 2009 mayoral election, 67,000 votes were cast with a 34 percent turnout. But a 35 percent turnout tomorrow may only equal 56,000 voters. Huh? That seems like a large drop-off in only four years.

If Toledo's turnout is under 35 percent, then it's possible that the number of Toledoans voting tomorrow will be lower than the number of Toledoans who are eligible to vote but are not registered to vote.

Bizarre. But my arithmetic may be way off, since I've had no coffee today.

If 67,000 people voted in Toledo's November 2009 mayoral election, then I find it hard to believe that fewer than 60,000 votes will be cast in tomorrow's election. Maybe the Lucas County BOE's registered vote number is off. But I can't believe the BOE would make a mistake.

But if the numbers are correct, and my turnout prediction is correct, then only about 25 percent of Toledo's eligible voters will vote tomorrow.

For local media orgs trying to attract an audience, it might be best to ignore politics. On the other hand, it could be an opportunity for a small, startup media outlet to focus only on regional politics.

Additional Comments

(From my other Nov 4, 2013 comment in the same thread.)

Since my September choice, Opal, is not in the race, then I take a simpler approach to this decision process.

The Blade editorial board endorsed Collins.

Jack Ford endorsed Collins.

Allegedly, Carty Finkbeiner has helped Collins on this campaign.

With the Blade, JaFo, and Czarty backing Collins, then Collins is not an independent.

When a person irritates the Blade, JaFo, and Czarty, then that person is doing something right.

Toledo's future???

Collins has the support of three major destructive forces from Toledo's past. In case you forgot, those would be the Blade editorial board, Jack Ford, and Carty Finkbeiner.

That's not a future.

Easy choice: Mike Bell for Toledo Mayor.

"The blade link provided was to show the relative comparison between the two candidates in gross dollars received and spent."

So? Look back at the September 2013 primary. Sep 10, 2013 Blade story.

Lopez raised $103,393
Bell raised $91,010
McNamara raised $90,296
Collins raised only $10,267, but he finished second.

The financial differences between Bell and Collins in the general election is significantly lower than what Collins faced in the run-up to the primary.

The top four finishers in the September 2013 primary:

(I) Michael P. Bell	6340	27%
(I) D. Michael Collins	5806	24%
(D) Anita Lopez	5443	23%
(D) Joe McNamara	5328	22%

That's a lot of anti-Bell opposition. That's probably the reason why Bell has spent nearly all of his campaign money.

The Ohio Democrat Party 'supports' Collins, but the statewide party does not 'endorse' Collins. Politics.

Prior to the September primary, Ohio Democrat Chairman Chris Redfern 'identified defeating Mayor Bell as the party’s top goal for 2013.'

Democrats all over Ohio want to defeat Bell, eh?

From the Sep 27, 2013 Blade story :

“We will not coordinate with Mr. Collins’ campaign,” Mr. Redfern said. “We will communicate directly to registered Democrats in the city of Toledo about the importance of defeating Mike Bell.”

"This is our city to be run the way we see fit."

Fine. But how do you explain this statement that was posted above:

Prior to the September primary, Ohio Democrat Chairman Chris Redfern 'identified defeating Mayor Bell as the party’s top goal for 2013.'

The statewide political party's top goal was defeating Bell.

Redfern said:

“We will communicate directly to registered Democrats in the city of Toledo about the importance of defeating Mike Bell.”

Why is a statewide political party meddling with municipal politics? This is our business, right? Why is Toledo's mayoral election the business of Cleveland, Dayton, Youngstown, Zanesville? Answer: that's politics.

Media

Nov 5, 2013 election day coverage.

Mid-day Toledo Blade story

Voter turnout today, as of 1 p.m., remained low in Lucas County.
Only 11.9 percent of registered voters had made it to the polls, according to the mid-day data collection from the Lucas County Board of Elections.

As of 9 a.m., turnout was 3.7 percent.

Compared to the 2009 general election, in which total turnout was 37.5 percent, as of 9 a.m., 6.5 percent of voters had gone to the polls; as of 1 p.m., 15.5 percent of voters cast ballots.

The 5 p.m. turnout in 2009 was 26.5 percent.

Voter turnout for the November 2009 general election :

Voter turnout in Lucas County was 36.96.
It was 33.9 percent in Toledo.

So this year's turnout Lucas County turnout compared to 2009:

Lucas County Voter Turnout Percentages
	2009	2013
9:00 a.m.	6.5	3.7
1:00 p.m.	15.5	11.9
5:00 p.m.	26.5	(23)*
final	37	(34)*
Toledo only	34	(32)*

* my predictions as of 3:50 p.m. EDT, Nov 5, 2013.

Above Blade story updated shortly after 6:00 p.m.:

Voter turnout in Lucas County rose to 20.5 percent as of 5 p.m., the board of elections reports. The 5 p.m. turnout lags behind 2009, which was 26.5 percent, according to Lucas County.

So ...

Lucas County Voter Turnout Percentages
	2009	2013
9:00 a.m.	6.5	3.7
1:00 p.m.	15.5	11.9
5:00 p.m.	26.5	20.5
final	37	(32)*
Toledo only	34	(30)*

Nov 2013

Blade reports :

Turnout was 25.4 percent of registered voters in the city.

25.4 percent? That's much lower than the 30 to 32 percent that I predicted.

More analysis

"Maybe voters are just impatient and want more improvement sooner. No one knows the exact answer."

SB5

Sorry, hockeyfan, but sadly, this election was probably about one simple thing: Bell's support for SB5 in 2011. Two years ago. The unions don't forget.

Again, the statewide democrat party made the defeat of Mike Bell its number one priority of 2013 because of Bell's 2011 support of SB5.

Don't over-think it. It's that simple.

Chinese Invasion

A secondary issue against Bell for some narrow-minded Toledo voters may have been the yellow horde that have landed on Toledo's shores. Combine the two issues.

Mike Bell: perceived anti-union support and pro-Chinese support.

Remember the bumper sticker that's seen often around here:

"Out of a job yet? Keep buying foreign."

Politics

Is the bumper sticker and Bell's first term even remotely related? No. But it doesn't matter. In politics, these things only have to be perceived as being related. Somehow, selling Toledo land to the Chinese will take away jobs from Toledoans.

Approximately 80 percent of adult Toledoans did not vote yesterday. The ones who did vote probably don't want to digest complicated issues ahead of the election. They want things boiled down to simple, edible chunks.

Mike Bell: anti-union, pro-Chinese. That's easy for a union town to understand and to oppose.

No pro-citizen for you

Back in August 2013, Mike Bell said,

"I'm not anti-union, I'm pro-citizen."

Pro-citizen? We can't allow that kind of broad thinking in Toledo.

Freedom is Cancer

This morning, I heard Michael Miller of the Toledo Free Press interview Mike Collins on WSPD.

Collins said right-to-work is a "cancer" on this state.

A November 2004 Columbus Dispatch story said Toledo was the second-most unionized city in the nation. Toledo may not be number 2 today, but you know that it's up there. So what is that? A decapitation?

Results Map

Hey, we gots a map of data. justread will be pleased.

http://toledobladedata.com/electionresults

Maybe this election results map at the Toledo Blade explains the vote outcome

South Toledo connection, or not

Ludeman, Martinez, and Spang got elected to Toledo City Council at-large seats. They are from South Toledo.

Collins is from South Toledo. I thought maybe that the South Toledo voters who turned out for the council people helped carry Collins, but it appears that Collins did quite well and even better in north and west Toledo.

Look at the vote totals in the wards in and near Collins' home:

7 (Collins' home)
Bell: 1,212
Collins: 1,683

16
Bell: 1,427
Collins: 1,945

24
Bell: 1,216
Collins: 1,573

Approximately a difference of 500 votes in each of those three wards.

Here are totals from a couple wards, located at the other end of the city along the Michigan border:

1
Bell: 1,036
Collins: 2,074

3
Bell: 979
Collins: 1,952

23
Bell: 1,254
Collins: 2,353

Approximately a difference of a 1000 votes in each ward. Collins did two times better further away from his district.

Collins' Team

At least Lisa Renee Ward ( psyche777 ) will be on Collins' mayoral team next year. Collins announced that this morning on WSPD. Many people may not realize it, but that's a major positive for Toledoans.

My January 2012 comment :

It seems, however, that the investigative work may have been done by Lisa Renee Ward [Legislative Aide at City of Toledo], the former blogger at Glass City Jungle. So thank her.
No surprise here. She did this kind of work for years on her site. It's no coincidence that Ward was involved in exposing this government problem. Ward being the one behind the investigative work, at least the initial investigation, makes more sense to me than any newspaper.

If five Lisa Renee Wards existed in our local media, then our local government entities would be very nervous.

In July 2011, Lisa Renee Ward shutdown her Glass City Jungle blog and stopped working for the Toledo Free Press to take a job in city government as a legislative aide for some city council members.

But I noticed this photo caption in last night's Blade story

D. Michael Collins, center, looks over the shoulders of Robert Reinbolt, left, and Christopher Fofrich, right, while waiting for the returns to start coming in at an election viewing party at the Teamster's Local 20 Hall on Tuesday.

If it's the same Robert Reinbolt, he was Carty Finkbeiner's chief of staff during Carty's last term as mayor.

Hopefully, Collins does not load his mayor's office with a bunch of people from previous regimes.

JaFo

Jack Ford elected to Toledo City Council. Great day in the morning. That's what happens when 80 percent of Toledo adults don't care.

Czarty

Here's an interesting and frightening thought.

Have you noticed that Carty Finkbeiner and Jack Ford have become buds or at least political allies recently? They have appeared together in public multiple times and not as enemies.

Czarty and JaFo went at each other pretty good in 2005. Ford represented the A-team democrats and Carty the B-team democrats.

But this fall, Carty and Ford seemed to rally together around a common opponent: Mike Bell.

And now Carty's new good friend, Jack Ford, just got elected to city council.

Collins won the mayor's race. Collins is a District 2 city councilman, and obviously, his council seat opens up in January.

Carty lives in District 2. Will Carty push to be appointed to Collins' vacant District 2 council seat?

Imagine Czarty and JaFo on Toledo City Council in 2014.

Opal, what have you done?!

Carty in Campaign Mode?

Blade photos of Collins' election day:

http://www.toledoblade.com/gallery/Michael-Collins-Election-Day-2013

Again, it's Collins' election day photo gallery:

"Dennis Duffey, secretary-treasurer of the Ohio State Building & Construction Trades Council (OSBCTC), left, speaks with Chris Redfern, right,"

"Former Mayor Carty Finkbeiner, right, speaks to Democratic Party Executive Committee member Mike Friedman, left, during the D. Michael Collins [election viewing] ..."

"Former Mayor Carty Finkbeiner speaks to former city councilman Art Jones, right, during the D. Michael Collins election viewing ..."

Uncle Carty is still rocking the sweater look. He has a new ally on city council in Ford and an ally as the new mayor. In the past, Rob Ludeman has carried Carty's water, so that's another ally on council.

I'd be surprised if Carty does not ~~seek~~ demand the District 2 council appointment. He may not get appointed. He might have to wait until the 2015 election, but he looks like he's already in campaign mode. But then again, Uncle Carty has always been warm and cuddly with people.

Perrysburg - Toledo Voters

Both cities held mayoral elections in November 2013.

Toledo
Mike Bell 21,536
D. Michael Collins 28,002
49,538 votes cast.

Wikipedia: Toledo demographics

2010 census population: 287,128.
24% of residents were under the age of 18 = 68,911 residents.
218,217 residents were of voting age.
2012 population estimate: 284,012 (loss of 1.09%).
-1.09% * 218,217 = -2379
Estimated number of 2012 voting age residents: 215,838.
49,538 votes cast / 215,838 = ~23% of Toledo adults expressed an opinion on who should be mayor.

Perrysburg:
Laura M. Hummer 1,931
Michael J. Omstead 2,822
4,753 votes cast.

Wikipedia: Perrysburg demographics

2010 census population: 20,623.
26.5% of residents were under the age of 18 = 5,465 residents.
15,158 residents were of voting age.
2012 population estimate: 21,161 (gain of 2.61%).
2.61% * 15,158 = 396.
Estimated number of 2012 voting age residents: 15,554.
4,753 votes cast / 15,554 = ~31% of Perrysburg adults expressed an opinion on who should be mayor.

Another Nov 6, 2013 comment

Final look at the numbers for two November 2013 mayoral elections:

approx 23% of Toledo adults voted for mayor.
approx 31% of Perrysburg adults voted for mayor.

Amazing lack of interest.

Comparing 2013 to 1993.

In the November 1993 Toledo mayoral election, Carty Finkbeiner defeated Mike Ferner by 672 votes. In that election, 92,470 votes were cast.

In the November 2013 Toledo mayoral election, 49,538 votes were cast.

Toledo's population in 1990 was 332,943.
Toledo's population in 2010 was 287,208.

Obviously, the declining population explains much of the drop, but relatively speaking, the vote count in 2013 seems significantly lower than in 1993.

Does a declining population lead to declining interest? I doubt it. Perrysburg showed little interest in their mayoral election yesterday.

Maybe today, people are too busy and have too many other interests to care about local politics. It's simply not a concern anymore for most people.

Humor

January 1994 - Toledo Blade - A new era begins for Toledo government - "Mayor Finkbeiner, new city council take office today"

In that 1994 city council lineup, Rob Ludeman was the District 2 councilman, and Jack Ford was an at-large councilman. They were the top-2 vote-getters in yesterday's election for city council at-large.

If the C-man can worm back into 2014 city government, we could keep the new era going.

Nov 7 story

Nov 7, 2013 Toledo Blade story by Tom Troy titled Turnout dives over course of city’s strong-mayor setup

(The Blade wanted the strong-mayor form of government.)

From the story:

The total votes cast in Toledo’s mayor race this year — 49,538 — is a little more than half the total votes cast in the first strong-mayor election in 1993, 92,470.
And unlike 20 years ago, voters in this election had 30 days before Election Day to cast an early ballot in person or mail in a “no excuses” absentee ballot.

Yeah, we got those numbers, but the story failed to mention that Toledo's population has declined by at least 45,000 people in the last 20 years.

2005:
Carty Finkbeiner	47,351	61%
Jack Ford	29,169	38%
	76,520
-
2009:
Mike Bell	35,118	52%
Keith Wilkowski	31,987	48%
	67,105
-
2013: unofficial
Mike Collins	28,002	56.5%
Mike Bell	21,536	43.5%
-	49,537

Rob Ludeman	27,038
Jack Ford	25,081
Sandy Spang	23,690
Steven C. Steel	21,177
Theresa M. Gabriel	19,274
Adam J. Martinez	19,202

Ward	Voters	Turnout	Location
16	3,431	40%	South
7	2,928	38%	South
22	2,705	36%	West
21	3,162	35%	West
1	3,149	34%	North