11 min

November weather in the Great Lakes Region

(My Nov 14, 2013 comment in a ToledoTalk.com thread about possible severe weather on Nov 17, 2013.)

Thanks for the heads up. I don't include the 4-plus day convective outlook in my weather web app.

"I don't think it bears reminding of how violent storms can be in November, considering what happened just a few years ago."


November weather in the Great Lakes ...

# - ... when it comes to volatile weather for the Great Lakes region, I believe November is second after the March-April period. Floods, strong winds, heavy lake-effect snow storms, bitter cold, and warm temps are somewhat common occurrences in November. As one weather dude said, it's winter and summer fighting it out.

# - A few Novembers ago, the northeast Ohio snowbelt got hammered with a multi-day lake effect snowstorm that dumped snow amounts that were measured in feet not inches. And we're only a few days away from the four-year anniversary of the deadly tornados that hit western Ohio. In the Great Lakes region, I don't think any other month produces the weather extremes like November. To a meteorologist, November is a fascinating time.


Nov 10, 2002

The Veterans Day Weekend tornado outbreak that impacted parts of northwest Ohio occurred on November 10, 2002.

An F4 tornado hit Van Wert, Ohio, killing two people. November 2012 Toledo Blade story about the 10-year anniversary of the Van Wert tornado.

20 tornado touchdowns were recorded in Ohio on Nov 10, 2002. Here are the ones reported closer to Toledo.

IntensityLocationCountyTimePath LengthDamage
F1E of CygnetWood4:54 pm4.5 miles
F2N of FostoriaHancock, Seneca4:57 pm9 miles
F0SE of PerrysburgWood5:10 pm0.1 mile
F3SE of TiffinSeneca5:15 pm21 miles1 death
F1NW of MillburyWood5:19 pm0.5 mile
F1FremontSandusky5:20 pm3.5 miles
F2Port ClintonOttawa5:30 pm10 miles
F1W of NorwalkHuron5:42 pm7.5 miles

(Prior to 2007, the National Weather Service used the Fujita scale to rate tornadoes. Now they use the Enhanced Fujita scale. )


Nov 17, 2013

"Things to keep in mind with these systems. They don't require the same level of heating and instability as Spring/Summer events require because storms this time of the year tend to have better upper air dynamics."

On Nov 10, 2002, Toledo Express Airport recorded a high temperature of 66 degrees.

The current Toledo forecast calls for high temps on Sun, Nov 17, 2013 to be in the low to mid 60s.

While this Sunday may feel relatively nice, the lack of hot weather may be deceiving if all of the other dynamics exist for severe weather. It may not "feel" like a thunderstorm day.

I assume that in 2013, more people have the ability to be alerted to bad weather than in 2002. The Van Wert tornado destroyed a movie theater that was mostly evacuated shortly before the tornado hit.

Tablets, cell phones, apps, social media. Should be no excuse to be somewhat aware today. And being aware does not mean being hysterical. No need to build bunkers nor cancel anything.

End Toledo Talk comment

Posts related to Nov 17, 2013 severe weather

Tornado to Lake Effect Snow


. /Fri-evening-Nov-22-2013-Area-Forecast-Discussion">Fri evening, Nov 22, 2013 Area Forecast Discussion

Gaylord, Michigan is located near the top of the lower peninsula of Michigan. Gaylord is the county seat of Otsego County.

On Sun, Nov 17, 2013, a small tornado, EF-0, touched down in Otsego County.

EF-0 CONFIRMED JUST SOUTH OF EXIT 270 ALONG INTERSTATE 75 IN EXTREME SOUTHERN OSTEGO COUNTY. TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST PAST MILE MARKER 268 AND TRAVELED FOR JUST OVER ...

As of Fri, Nov 22, 2013, nearby Antrim County in Michigan is under a Lake Effect Snow Watch.

Statement as of 4:15 PM EST on November 22, 2013

... Lake effect snow watch in effect from Saturday morning through
Sunday morning...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a lake effect
snow watch... which is in effect from Saturday morning through
Sunday morning.

Hazardous weather...

  • a period of heavier snowfall expected overnight with the
    passage of the Arctic front.
  • Heavy lake effect snow showers develop on Saturday and persist
    through Saturday night.
  • Lake effect snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches by Sunday
    morning with localized accumulations exceeding 12 inches
    possible.
  • Gusty northwest winds will produce some blowing snow and single
    digit wind chill readings.

Impacts...

  • snow covered roads and poor visibility in falling and blowing
    snow will result in hazardous travel.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

  • a lake effect snow watch means there is a potential for a
    large amount of snow in only a few hours. Visibilities and
    snowfall can vary greatly... impacting travel significantly.
    To learn more... visit US online at weather.Gov/Gaylord or
    find US on facebook and twitter.

Nov 23, 2013

Statement as of 4:12 AM EST on November 23, 2013

... Lake effect Snow Advisory in effect from 10 am this morning to
10 am EST Sunday...

The National Weather Service in northern Indiana has issued a
lake effect Snow Advisory... which is in effect from 10 am this
morning to 10 am EST Sunday.

Hazardous weather...

  • timing... lake effect snow showers will develop later this
    morning and increase in coverage into the afternoon. More
    organized... stronger... lake effect snow bands are expected to
    develop later this evening into tonight.
  • Snow accumulations... 2 to 5 inches. As is typical in lake
    effect... the highest accumulations will be entirely dependent
    on the placement of snow bands. Areas outside of the heaviest
    bands may only see a dusting to 1 inch of snow through Sunday
    morning.
  • Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph may lead to some blowing and
    drifting... especially in open rural areas.

Impacts...

  • hazardous travel conditions due to reduced visibility in lake
    effect snow.
  • Untreated roads may become snow covered and slippery.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A lake effect Snow Advisory Means Lake-effect snow is forecast
that will make travel difficult in some areas. Lake-effect snow
showers typically align themselves in bands and will likely be
intense enough to drop several inches in localized areas. Use
caution when traveling.

11/23/2013 0900 am

10 miles S of Grayling, Crawford County.

Snow m3.0 inch, reported by spotter.

12 hr total thru 9 am. Snowdepth 3 in.

11/23/2013 0900 am

10 miles S of Grayling, Crawford County.

Snow m3.0 inch, reported by spotter.

12 hr total thru 9 am. Snowdepth 3 in.

Antrim, MI

Lake Effect Snow Warning
Statement as of 9:55 AM EST on November 23, 2013

... Lake effect snow warning remains in effect until 7 am EST
Sunday...

A lake effect snow warning remains in effect until 7 am EST
Sunday.

Hazardous weather...

  • through late morning: lake snow showers will continue... with 1 to
    2 inches of snow by noon under the heaviest and most persistent
    bands.
  • This afternoon and tonight: widespread lake effect snows will
    occur... but with one or two primary heavy snow bands likely to
    dominate.
  • Storm total snowfall: as is typical with lake effect snow...
    accumulations will vary widely across the warned area. Storm
    total accumulations ranging from 4 to 8 inches will be the most
    common... but accumulations over 12 inches will likely occur
    under the most persistent and heaviest snow bands. Areas
    outside of the heaviest bands may only see a few inches of snow
    through tonight.
  • Other hazards: gusty northwest winds up to 30 mph will lead
    to some blowing and drifting snow. In addition... wind chill
    readings will fall to around zero at times.

Impacts...

  • snow covered roads and poor visibility in falling and blowing
    snow will result in hazardous travel.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

  • a lake effect snow warning means localized heavy lake effect
    snow is forecast that will make travel very hazardous.
  • We welcome your snowfall reports anytime at 1-800-647-8676 or
    online via facebook and twitter.

11/23/2013 0852 am

Alba, Antrim County.

Snow m3.5 inch, reported by spotter.

12 hr total thru 9 am. Snowdepth 5 in.

11/23/2013 0852 am

Alba, Antrim County.

Snow m3.5 inch, reported by spotter.

12 hr total thru 9 am. Snowdepth 5 in.

Grand Traverse
Lake Effect Snow Warning
Statement as of 9:55 AM EST on November 23, 2013

... Lake effect snow warning remains in effect until 7 am EST
Sunday...

A lake effect snow warning remains in effect until 7 am EST
Sunday.

Hazardous weather...

  • through late morning: lake snow showers will continue... with 1 to
    2 inches of snow by noon under the heaviest and most persistent
    bands.
  • This afternoon and tonight: widespread lake effect snows will
    occur... but with one or two primary heavy snow bands likely to
    dominate.
  • Storm total snowfall: as is typical with lake effect snow...
    accumulations will vary widely across the warned area. Storm
    total accumulations ranging from 4 to 8 inches will be the most
    common... but accumulations over 12 inches will likely occur
    under the most persistent and heaviest snow bands. Areas
    outside of the heaviest bands may only see a few inches of snow
    through tonight.
  • Other hazards: gusty northwest winds up to 30 mph will lead
    to some blowing and drifting snow. In addition... wind chill
    readings will fall to around zero at times.

Impacts...

  • snow covered roads and poor visibility in falling and blowing
    snow will result in hazardous travel.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

  • a lake effect snow warning means localized heavy lake effect
    snow is forecast that will make travel very hazardous.
  • We welcome your snowfall reports anytime at 1-800-647-8676 or
    online via facebook and twitter.

Missaukee, MI

Lake Effect Snow Warning
Statement as of 9:55 AM EST on November 23, 2013

... Lake effect snow warning remains in effect until 7 am EST
Sunday...

A lake effect snow warning remains in effect until 7 am EST
Sunday.

Hazardous weather...

  • through late morning: lake snow showers will continue... with 1 to
    2 inches of snow by noon under the heaviest and most persistent
    bands.
  • This afternoon and tonight: widespread lake effect snows will
    occur... but with one or two primary heavy snow bands likely to
    dominate.
  • Storm total snowfall: as is typical with lake effect snow...
    accumulations will vary widely across the warned area. Storm
    total accumulations ranging from 4 to 8 inches will be the most
    common... but accumulations over 12 inches will likely occur
    under the most persistent and heaviest snow bands. Areas
    outside of the heaviest bands may only see a few inches of snow
    through tonight.
  • Other hazards: gusty northwest winds up to 30 mph will lead
    to some blowing and drifting snow. In addition... wind chill
    readings will fall to around zero at times.

Impacts...

  • snow covered roads and poor visibility in falling and blowing
    snow will result in hazardous travel.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

  • a lake effect snow warning means localized heavy lake effect
    snow is forecast that will make travel very hazardous.
  • We welcome your snowfall reports anytime at 1-800-647-8676 or
    online via facebook and twitter.

Ashtabula Inland
Lake Effect Snow Warning
Statement as of 10:15 AM EST on November 23, 2013

... Lake effect snow warning remains in effect until midnight EST
Sunday night...

  • accumulations... total accumulations of 6 inches to around one
    foot are forecast by midnight Sunday night. The highest
    accumulations will be across the higher terrain of inland
    northwest Pennsylvania.
  • Timing... lake effect snow will develop this afternoon and
    continue tonight and Sunday before tapering off Sunday evening.
    The snow will become heavy at times... especially tonight and
    early Sunday.
  • Winds... northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph
    on Saturday night... decreasing on Sunday afternoon.
  • Impacts... motorists should be alert for rapidly changing
    conditions that occur within bands of lake effect snow.
    Blowing and drifting snow is also likely.
  • Temperatures... will fall to the near 20 degrees Saturday night
    and and hold nearly steady on Sunday.
  • Visibilities... could be below a quarter of a mile at times.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
Road and visibility conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio
for further details or updates.

#weather - #blog_jr

By JR - 1997 words
created: - updated:
source - versions

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