November weather in the Great Lakes Region

(My Nov 14, 2013 comment in a ToledoTalk.com thread about possible severe weather on Nov 17, 2013.)

Thanks for the heads up. I don't include the 4-plus day convective outlook in my weather web app.

"I don't think it bears reminding of how violent storms can be in November, considering what happened just a few years ago."

November weather in the Great Lakes ...

# - ... when it comes to volatile weather for the Great Lakes region, I believe November is second after the March-April period. Floods, strong winds, heavy lake-effect snow storms, bitter cold, and warm temps are somewhat common occurrences in November. As one weather dude said, it's winter and summer fighting it out.

# - A few Novembers ago, the northeast Ohio snowbelt got hammered with a multi-day lake effect snowstorm that dumped snow amounts that were measured in feet not inches. And we're only a few days away from the four-year anniversary of the deadly tornados that hit western Ohio. In the Great Lakes region, I don't think any other month produces the weather extremes like November. To a meteorologist, November is a fascinating time.

Nov 10, 2002

The Veterans Day Weekend tornado outbreak that impacted parts of northwest Ohio occurred on November 10, 2002.

An F4 tornado hit Van Wert, Ohio, killing two people. November 2012 Toledo Blade story about the 10-year anniversary of the Van Wert tornado.

20 tornado touchdowns were recorded in Ohio on Nov 10, 2002. Here are the ones reported closer to Toledo.

Intensity	Location	County	Time	Path Length	Damage
F1	E of Cygnet	Wood	4:54 pm	4.5 miles
F2	N of Fostoria	Hancock, Seneca	4:57 pm	9 miles
F0	SE of Perrysburg	Wood	5:10 pm	0.1 mile
F3	SE of Tiffin	Seneca	5:15 pm	21 miles	1 death
F1	NW of Millbury	Wood	5:19 pm	0.5 mile
F1	Fremont	Sandusky	5:20 pm	3.5 miles
F2	Port Clinton	Ottawa	5:30 pm	10 miles
F1	W of Norwalk	Huron	5:42 pm	7.5 miles

(Prior to 2007, the National Weather Service used the Fujita scale to rate tornadoes. Now they use the Enhanced Fujita scale. )

Nov 17, 2013

"Things to keep in mind with these systems. They don't require the same level of heating and instability as Spring/Summer events require because storms this time of the year tend to have better upper air dynamics."

On Nov 10, 2002, Toledo Express Airport recorded a high temperature of 66 degrees.

The current Toledo forecast calls for high temps on Sun, Nov 17, 2013 to be in the low to mid 60s.

While this Sunday may feel relatively nice, the lack of hot weather may be deceiving if all of the other dynamics exist for severe weather. It may not "feel" like a thunderstorm day.

I assume that in 2013, more people have the ability to be alerted to bad weather than in 2002. The Van Wert tornado destroyed a movie theater that was mostly evacuated shortly before the tornado hit.

Tablets, cell phones, apps, social media. Should be no excuse to be somewhat aware today. And being aware does not mean being hysterical. No need to build bunkers nor cancel anything.

#weather - #blog_jr