• Nov 17-18, 2013 forecast

November weather in the Great Lakes Region

(My Nov 14, 2013 comment in a ToledoTalk.com thread about possible severe weather on Nov 17, 2013.)

Thanks for the heads up. I don't include the 4-plus day convective outlook in my weather web app.

"I don't think it bears reminding of how violent storms can be in November, considering what happened just a few years ago."

November weather in the Great Lakes ...

# - ... when it comes to volatile weather for the Great Lakes region, I believe November is second after the March-April period. Floods, strong winds, heavy lake-effect snow storms, bitter cold, and warm temps are somewhat common occurrences in November. As one weather dude said, it's winter and summer fighting it out.

# - A few Novembers ago, the northeast Ohio snowbelt got hammered with a multi-day lake effect snowstorm that dumped snow amounts that were measured in feet not inches. And we're only a few days away from the four-year anniversary of the deadly tornados that hit western Ohio. In the Great Lakes region, I don't think any other month produces the weather extremes like November. To a meteorologist, November is a fascinating time.

Nov 10, 2002

The Veterans Day Weekend tornado outbreak that impacted parts of northwest Ohio occurred on November 10, 2002.

An F4 tornado hit Van Wert, Ohio, killing two people. November 2012 Toledo Blade story about the 10-year anniversary of the Van Wert tornado.

20 tornado touchdowns were recorded in Ohio on Nov 10, 2002. Here are the ones reported closer to Toledo.

Intensity	Location	County	Time	Path Length	Damage
F1	E of Cygnet	Wood	4:54 pm	4.5 miles
F2	N of Fostoria	Hancock, Seneca	4:57 pm	9 miles
F0	SE of Perrysburg	Wood	5:10 pm	0.1 mile
F3	SE of Tiffin	Seneca	5:15 pm	21 miles	1 death
F1	NW of Millbury	Wood	5:19 pm	0.5 mile
F1	Fremont	Sandusky	5:20 pm	3.5 miles
F2	Port Clinton	Ottawa	5:30 pm	10 miles
F1	W of Norwalk	Huron	5:42 pm	7.5 miles

(Prior to 2007, the National Weather Service used the Fujita scale to rate tornadoes. Now they use the Enhanced Fujita scale. )

Nov 17, 2013

"Things to keep in mind with these systems. They don't require the same level of heating and instability as Spring/Summer events require because storms this time of the year tend to have better upper air dynamics."

On Nov 10, 2002, Toledo Express Airport recorded a high temperature of 66 degrees.

The current Toledo forecast calls for high temps on Sun, Nov 17, 2013 to be in the low to mid 60s.

While this Sunday may feel relatively nice, the lack of hot weather may be deceiving if all of the other dynamics exist for severe weather. It may not "feel" like a thunderstorm day.

I assume that in 2013, more people have the ability to be alerted to bad weather than in 2002. The Van Wert tornado destroyed a movie theater that was mostly evacuated shortly before the tornado hit.

Tablets, cell phones, apps, social media. Should be no excuse to be somewhat aware today. And being aware does not mean being hysterical. No need to build bunkers nor cancel anything.

Nov 17-18, 2013 forecast

A slight diff in the forecasts between Sun and Mon:

Sunday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 68. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday: A chance of rain showers before 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Since temps are expected to fall all day Monday, temps will probably be in the 30s on Monday afternoon, which will be about 30 degrees cooler than 24 hours earlier.

Tuesday's high temp is forecast to be in the mid 30s.

Toledo's record high temp for Nov 17 is 71 degrees set in 1931.

Current forecast discussion from the Cleveland NWS:

a big change is coming through this period as a november gale develops across the great lakes region over the weekend.
potential still exists at this time that we will likely see at least wind advisories posted for sunday into monday. potential does exist that we will need to go higher with high wind warnings.

cold front sweeps through the area sunday night and the overnight lows could possibly be the high for the day on monday. we should see nearly steady or falling temperatures during the day monday and into monday night.

The SPC's day 3 (Sunday) convective outlook includes all of Ohio and southeast Michigan in the Slight risk for severe thunderstorms.

#weather - #blog_jr