• Nov 17 - 1411
• 1417
• 1442
• 1452
• 1501

Severe weather threat for Sun, Nov 17, 2013 - Part 2

This post Severe weather threat for Sun, Nov 17, 2013 is getting to big, so continuing here.

Nov 17 - 1411

Short while ago

1417

md 2018 concerning tornado watch 561...562...564... for far ern il...ind...lower mi

mesoscale discussion 2018
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0106 pm cst sun nov 17 2013

areas affected...far ern il...ind...lower mi

concerning...tornado watch 561...562...564...

valid 171906z - 172030z

the severe weather threat for tornado watch
561...562...564...continues.

summary...widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes...some of
which should be significant...will evolve from il into ind and lower
mi through mid-afternoon.

discussion...the nrn two-thirds of an extensive convective band has
consolidated into a qlcs from srn lk mi into e-cntrl il. with an
impressively large surface pressure rise/fall couplet noted across
the mid-ms valley to midwest...tendency for fast-moving linear
organization should continue across nrn ind and lower mi. embedded
mesovortices will remain capable of damaging tornadoes while
extensive swaths of strong to severe wind gusts should remain
attendant to the qlcs as an 886 mb surface cyclone over sern wi
continues to deepen.

farther s...tendency for more discrete supercell structures appear
probable for convection emanating newd out of srn il. although
downstream surface temperatures are cooler...very strong low-level
shear noted in kvwx vwp data will support a considerable risk of
significant tornadoes as convection remains coincident within a
plume of lower to middle 60s surface dew points.

..grams.. 11/17/2013

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...dtx...apx...lmk...iwx...grr...ind...pah...lot...
ilx...

lat...lon 44528595 44528470 44118430 43138440 39638542 38508650
38168746 38138787 38238832 38638834 40298780 42508673
44528595

1442

Toledo Express weather at 2pm.

Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 65 F
Humidity : 76%
Wind Speed : S 17 mph - Gust 30 mph
Barometer : 29.50 in
Dewpoint: 57 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

1452

I'm seeing only a small amount of the white inside cells that indicate severe.

1501

A couple of those cells along or near the IL-IN border are isolated at least along the western and southern edges.