24 min

Possible Jan 1, 2014 snowstorm

late sun night, dec 29, 2013 afd:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=IWX&issuedby=IWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

COLD LONG TERM EXPECTED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SNOW AND EYE ON
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WEDS INTO THURS.

BRIEF BREAK IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR START OF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE
PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO REGION OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUES AFTN AS UPPER
LVL TROF MOVES THRU. BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH BUT
MAY SKIRT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH HIGHEST POPS RELEGATED NEAR
IN/MI BORDER. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS (DUSTING TO INCH) POSSIBLE MAINLY
NORTH OF US 6 WITH THIS WAVE. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL
WINTER STORM THAT WILL AFFECT AREA WEDS INTO THURS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT PRONOUNCED SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN LEE OF ROCKIES WEDS AND
EJECTING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY BY THU.
GENERAL TRACK OF SFC LOW FROM SO MO WEDS AFTN TO CENTRAL IN WEDS
NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL OH BY THU AM. WITH 850MB LOW CLOSING OFF AND
MOVING RIGHT ACROSS AREA AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS WOULD PUT
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER CWA AND IN LINE FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING
SNOW. 12Z MODEL SUITE STILL DIFFERS A BIT ON TIMING WITH GFS
FASTEST...GEM IN THE MIDDLE...AND ECMWF REMAINING ON SLOWER BUT
STRONGER SIDE OF ENVELOPE. HAVE CONTINUED TO HEDGE TOWARD THIS
SLOWER COLDER SOLUTION WITH CONFIDENCE GROWING IN PROBABILITY OF
ACCUM SNOW ESP ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS POINT TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC ACCUMS BUT COULD SEE UPWARDS OF
3-6 INCHES BASED OFF CURRENT SOLUTIONS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS/QPF
ACCORDINGLY ESP ACROSS NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AS
SYSTEM WILL BE ONE TO WATCH FOR START OF 2014. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM IN NW
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN BRIEFLY FOR END OF THE
WEEK/START OF WEEKEND. MODEL DISCREPANCIES GROW AGAIN BY END OF
PERIOD BUT COULD SEE ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM BY SUNDAY INTO START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH PLUNGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR.

TEMP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON TRACK OF EACH WAVE AND
SUBSEQUENT MIDWEEK SYSTEM. REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN MID TEENS TO LOW 20S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS THRU THE WEEK. BRIEF MODERATION
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR 30 BUT THIS MAY HINGE ON
DEPTH OF SNOWPACK.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DTX&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1150 PM EST SUN DEC 29 201

##LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CREATE A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH RESPECT TO
THESE SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN BETWEEN 06-12Z. GIVEN THE SHORT WINDOW OF LIFT AND MOISTURE
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN THE BETTER
MOISTURE. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO WITH LOWS OF 10 TO 13 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA GIVEN THE
COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
ON TUESDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW PROVIDING ANOTHER COOL
QUIET DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THIS
APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT...HOWEVER IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/wx.html#/weather/html/forecast-discussion.html

afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1147 pm est sun dec 29 2013

near term /until 6 am monday morning/...
dynamics slowly supporting the dendritic growth zone over the
region which has in some locations reverted back from snow over to
freezing drizzle. looking at ir satellite temperature estimates in
the clouds over the region it looks that the freezing drizzle may linger
for a few more hours. an advisory has been issued to cover the
threat raised by any addition of freezing ice accumulation.
fortunately the moisture is limited and the potential accumulation
is limited to a light glazing on exposed surfaces. could see a
transition over to snow and back to freezing drizzle over the next
couple hours. the main hazard areas are in the east and in higher
terrain regions. once the final transition to snow occurs the
snowbelt region could still see around a half to an inch
accumulation. the temperatures meanwhile continue to fall allowing
for a quicker freeze/icing on any exposed wet surfaces from the
earlier rain. temperatures by daybreak will be in the teens and
winds will support wind chills in the single digits.

short term /6 am monday morning through wednesday night/...
monday 12z 850mb temps will already be down to -14-16c as the cold
air deepens across the region. am expecting a little lake effect
snow to occur on monday however by afternoon...winds should be
backing as another low develops across the central lakes. will
have around an inch for the snow belt for the day. monday night
brought chance pops back the region as moisture increases as a
short wave moves across the lake and deepens the surface low.
tuesday am expecting the lake effect to increase with better low
level moisture across the area and winds veer to onshore again.
tuesday night and wednesday more overrunning moisture moves in
from the west. will have chance pops for much of the area again.
&&

for the above afds, cle says nothing about a possible storm.

mon, dec 30

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
715 am est mon dec 30 2013

short term /6 pm this evening through thursday night/...
high pressure will briefly move across the lake tonight as low
pressure moves into the central great lakes. any lake effect snow
should shift up the lakeshore toward buffalo or completely end.
this clipper will not have much moisture to lift on tuesday so
snowfall will be light. the air will be slightly colder in the
wake of this low tuesday night with the expectation that lake
effect snow will develop. at this point it appears that 3 to 5
inches will be possible tuesday afternoon into tuesday night.
later shifts will need to consider the potential for a lake effect
snow advisory.
we will then have another brief lull between storm systems late
tuesday night into early wednesday. we will then monitor the
location of a warm front that will attempt to lift into southern
ohio by early thursday morning. a much stronger storm system will
then track along this warm front into ohio with a heavy swath of
snow possible late wednesday night into thursday. will mention
this in the hwo with the possibility of significant snowfall for
much of the region.

dec 31

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
435 am est tue dec 31 2013

.a clipper storm system will cross the area today. as the colder
air spills across lake erie this afternoon lake effect snow will
develop. the heaviest snowfall will occur over northwest
pennsylvania around erie.

wednesday into thursday...low pressure will move out of the
central plains across the ohio valley to the east coast. snowfall
amounts will depend on the exact track of the low but currently
the heaviest snow may occur across northern ohio and northwest
pennsylvania where 6 to 10 inches of snow may occur. as the low
passes it will allow for some additional accumulations from lake
effect snow that could persist into friday morning.

ohz003-006>010-017>019-311745-
/o.ext.kcle.ws.a.0005.140101t1200z-140102t1500z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...findlay...tiffin...norwalk
435 am est tue dec 31 2013

...winter storm watch now in effect from wednesday morning
through thursday morning...

accumulations...2 to 3 inches of snowfall may occur on new years
day. the heavier snow will arrive wednesday night with another 2
to 4 inches possible. by thursday as the snow begins to taper
off an additional 1 to 2 inches may occur. this would produce a
storm total of 5 to 9 inches with locally higher possible.

timing...snowfall will develop over the region on wednesday and
continue into at least thursday morning. the snow will then
taper off through thursday afternoon.

winds...westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph will be common new years
day but will increase out of a northerly direction at 15 to 20
mph wednesday night then continuing into thursday.

impacts...travel will be impacted tuesday through wednesday
night.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter storm watch means that heavy snow is possible. if you
are in the watch area...remain alert to rapidly changing weather
conditions. stay tuned to the national weather service or the
local news media for the latest updates and possible warnings.

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
950 am est tue dec 31 2013

short term /wednesday through thursday night/...
a storm system from the southern plains will move near the ohio
river valley wednesday night into thursday. snowfall will spread
into the area on wednesday and continue to expand in coverage and
intensity into wednesday night. there is still a bit of
uncertainty with the track and timing of the low but all models
indicate that the heavier swath of snow will be across north ohio
into nw pa. we have modified the area of the winter storm watch
slightly in an attempt to give better timing of the storm system
across the region. as mentioned above the heavier snow will spread
into the region wednesday night and continue into thursday. as
winds become northerly wednesday night into thursday there will
likely be some enhancement of the snowfall as moisture is pulled
off of lake erie. this could provide for higher snowfall amounts
for all locations from the central highlands northeastward across
ne ohio. as the storm exits on thursday the lake effect snow will
likely focus from ashtabula county westward to lorain and ashland
counties. by the time the storm ends many locations will likely
receive 6 to 10 inches...locally higher where the best lake
enhanced snowfall occurs.

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
1205 pm est tue dec 31 2013

.cold air spilling across lake erie will cause lake effect snow
to occur across the area. the heaviest snowfall will occur over
northwest pennsylvania around erie although additional bands will
occur in northeast ohio.

ohz003-006>010-017>019-027>030-010115-
/o.con.kcle.ws.a.0005.140101t1200z-140102t1500z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...
upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...ashland
1205 pm est tue dec 31 2013

...winter storm watch remains in effect from wednesday morning
through thursday morning...

accumulations...2 to 3 inches of snowfall may occur on new
years day. the heavier snow will arrive wednesday night with
another 2 to 4 inches possible. by thursday as the snow begins
to taper off an additional 1 to 2 inches may occur. this would
produce a storm total of 5 to 9 inches with locally higher
possible.

timing...snowfall will develop over the region on wednesday
and continue into at least thursday morning. the snow will
then taper off through thursday afternoon.

winds...westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph will be common new
years day but will increase out of a northerly direction at 15
to 20 mph wednesday night then continuing into thursday.

impacts...travel will be impacted today through wednesday
night.

At TT:
http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/165696#168003

No major tweaks to the forecast.
Winter Wx Adv for the counties in the western Toledo metro area, Winter storm watch continues Central and East. Overnight and morning models came in a bit higher on snow amounts.

GEM: 6-8"
06Z GFS: 10-12"
12Z GFS: 12-15"
WRF (which only goes 48 hours out and is a 10:1 ratio): 2-5"
06Z NAM: 5-7"
12Z NAM: 7 to 10"
Euro: 6-10"

Snow ratios are going to be closer to 15:1 or 20:1 in most cases, so the WRF amounts would need to be adjusted up accordingly. So the average across these models: 6-9" of snow. That seems like a safe be but would not rule out someone getting up to 12" of powder based on the higher ratios with this system.

! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 31, 2013 at 12:48:14 pm #

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
418 pm est tue dec 31 2013

.lake effect snow will continue across northern ashtabula county
into the night before tapering off.

wednesday low pressure will move east out of the central plains
and move across the ohio valley wednesday night and early
thursday. the system will spread snow across northern ohio and
northwest pennsylvania with light snow starting overnight. the
snow could shift north of much of the region wednesday afternoon
before dropping back south across the area wednesday night and
thursday. in addition...winds will become gusty from the north and
northeast causing blowing and drifting.

ohz003-006>010-017>019-010530-
/o.upg.kcle.ws.a.0005.140101t1200z-140102t1500z/
/o.new.kcle.ww.y.0019.140101t0500z-140102t2100z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...findlay...tiffin...norwalk
418 pm est tue dec 31 2013

...winter weather advisory in effect from midnight tonight to
4 pm est thursday...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter
weather advisory for snow...which is in effect from midnight
tonight to 4 pm est thursday. the winter storm watch is no longer
in effect.

accumulations...1 to 2 inches overnight and an additional 1 to 3
inches wednesday. wednesday night and thursday another 4 to 6
inches are possible.

timing...snow will develop tonight and continue much of
wednesday through thursday.

winds...northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph will occur wednesday
night and thursday.

impacts...travel will be impacted tonight through thursday.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter weather advisory is normally issued for a variety of
winter weather conditions
such as light snow, blowing snow, sleet, freezing rain and wind
chills. while the weather
will be significant, the word advisory implies that severe winter
weather is not anticipated.
stay tuned to noaa weather radio for further details or updates.

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
418 pm est tue dec 31 2013

ohz003-006>010-017>019-012130-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron-
418 pm est tue dec 31 2013

...winter weather advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 4 pm
est thursday...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and
northwest ohio.

.day one...this afternoon and tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

winter weather advisory.

.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

winter weather advisory.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
315 pm est tue dec 31 2013

synopsis...
issued at 1249 pm est tue dec 31 2013
a frontal boundary will develop over the region by
tonight...generating periods of light to moderate snowfall into
wednesday. accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are expected along and
north of us-30 during this time. additional snow is expected wednesday
night into thursday as a low pressure system tracks through the
ohio valley. otherwise...cold conditions will persist through
friday.
&&

short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 315 pm est tue dec 31 2013

..first round of accumulating snow arriving quickly...
some changes to event preparing to unfold tonight into wednesday
morning mainly in higher details on timing/amounts.
light snow was rapidly overspreading northern illinois with vsbys
already down to 2 miles or less at ohare airport. this will quickly
advance east and reach nw parts of the advisory area in the 21 to
00z window as strengthening fgen forcing occurs across mainly the
northern half of the area. models continue to focus main band of
snowfall along and either side of the i80/90 toll road with the
southern extent of accumulating snowfall near a knox to warsaw to
paulding ohio line. in general...running with snow ratios in the
15:1 range...but cold temps and nice alignment of omega and dgz
later this evening into overnight hours could yield pockets of 20:1.
ratios of 15:1 with a quarter or more of qpf will easily yield 2 to
5 inches of snowfall through wednesday morning. road conditions will
quickly deteriorate this evening for those preparing to celebrate
the new year and slippery conditions with pockets of low visibility
will create further hazards overnight. no changes to headlines at
this point. if higher ratios do occur...then changes could be needed
to current advisory. one positive note is winds will not be overly
strong...generally 5 to 15 mph range...which will help limit blowing
of the snow but still be sufficient to cause drifting in outlying
areas.
brunt of omega will be shifting into ne parts of the region weds
morning. this will allow snowfall to lessen for a period across the
advisory area. in addition...arrival of slightly warmer air will
lower ratios to the range of climo (13:1). have nudged pops down
slightly but still held in categorical range with transition to next
system quickly occurring by afternoon.
&&

long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 315 pm est tue dec 31 2013
stronger large scale ascent associated with consolidated central
conus upper trough will overspread pre-existing low/mid level
baroclinic zone wed aftn-night. this will act to enhance the fgen
circulation locally through deformation with organizing band of
light/moderate snow expected to slowly sink sewd with time wed
night into thu am. moisture/ascent on 280/285k isentropic surfaces
still enough to support decent snow accums with mixing ratios
increasing to btw 2.5-3.0 g/kg. however...models still disagree to
some extent on handling of smaller scale waves embedded within
trough axis. gfs/ecmwf continues to be more focused on a
weaker/farther south solution with primary focus on southern pv
anomaly digging into the tn valley...while the bulk of remaining
guidance is farther north with sfc reflection and core of lift per
5-3h q-vector progs. hard to pinpoint how this will play out but
expecting additional accums/impacts regardless. will issue an
outlook (sps) across southern counties for potential
light/moderate snow accums (2-5") and extend the advisory across
the northern half of the fa into wed aftn/eve where total snow
accumulations btw tonight and thu morning may end up in the 6-10
inch range. long duration and expected lull tomorrow favors an
advisory instead of a warning for now.
thursday into friday will feature a reinforcing shot of cold/dry air
in wake of system. northerly trajectories with 850 mb temps
plummeting to near -18c will bring about the concern for a lake
effect single band into northwest indiana later thu aftn-thu
night. bulk of guidance continues to favor areas just west of the
local area / porter-lake counties in indiana / for greatest
impacts but do expect band to eventually pivot into our far
northwestern counties at some point with accumulations possible.
brief moderating trend...tempered a bit by expected snow
cover...is anticipated on saturday as flow backs southwesterly in
advance of a cold front. reassertion of -epo/northeast pacific
positive height anomalies this weekend will allow next shot of
very cold air (potentially coldest of the season so far) to filter
into the region behind this cold front sunday into early next week
as piece of polar vortex displaces south toward ontario/quebec -
maybe as far south of the northern great lakes. something to watch
in this transition will be a potential winter storm in the sunday-
monday timeframe with frontal wave as shortwave energy rounds base
of trough and attempts to phase with energy pivoting around polar
vortex.
&&

afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
350 pm est tue dec 31 2013

short term...through tonight
the confluent flow and subsidence aloft this morning was only strong
enough to briefly disrupt the lake effect snow band over the
southern cwa. the strengthening sw flow was able to tighten the
convergence zone once again producing a band of light snow across
wayne and washtenaw counties. this band has been quite progressive
thus accumulations will be held to under a half inch. the band is
also tracking into a region of lower dewpoints helping to weaken it.
arctic airmass will hold over the state into the overnight as the
front is now lifting into the ohio valley. satellite loops show mid
level clouds associated with the front streaming into the chicago
area which will spread into se mi this evening. current radar
reflectivity over northern illinois on the regional radar mosaic
lines up well with the 850 mb front which will reach southern lower
mi between 03z and 06z. as the front aligns west to east across the
ohio valley...isentropic ascent along the 295k surface will
increase over southern mi. looking at cross sections...models
indicate an enhance plume of moisture...specific humidities of 2
g/kg...aligned with the best frontal forcing between 700-800mb
nosing across the mi/oh border. a weak theta e gradient will be set
up over the area by midnight but a better surge enters after 06z.
northern stream jet max that dove down trough mi this afternoon will
move east enough so that we start to get into the right entrance
region toward morning which will lend some upper level support to
the start of the event. with the very dry arctic airmass in
place...dewpoints single digits across the area...how fast the
column get moistened is in question. with a limited duration
expected overnight kept the accumulations to around an inch south of
about i696. with the north staying clear of most of the
snowfall...look for temps to drop overnight into the low single
digits. with thicker clouds and snowfall across the south temps
should stay in the low teens.
&&

long term...
quasi-zonal wnw flow over the great lakes will strengthen as the
upper height gradient tightens in response to approaching low
amplitude pacific energy. the ongoing fgen response over the upper
ms valley this aftn will extend east with time as this energy zips
along allowing the low-level response expected to persist in a
relatively steady-state through wednesday morning. during this time,
modest isentropic ascent will take place along the low-level frontal
boundary while an organized fgen circulation ramps up beneath the
strengthening right entrance of the upper jet. moderate static
stability should keep vertical motions associated with the fgen
response somewhat in check, which is important for allowing some
semblance of moisture transport to continue up the frontal slope and
should help prevent a very sharp cutoff to the accumulating snowfall
on the northern edge.
the 12z guidance are all in generally good agreement regarding the
important features the pattern with the main difference of note
being the actual qpf output. curiously, both the nam and nmm are
producing virtually identical and highly improbable qpf totals on
the order of 2x that of ecmwf/gfs/arw, a sign that the similar
microphysics used in both models may be to blame as they
oversimulate the response to tomorrow's environment. have therefore
leaned heavily toward the aforementioned trio of nwp with an
emphasis on the higher resolution arw. the net result is a more
narrow swath of appreciable accumulation across the central/southern
cwa than would be suggested by the nam/nmm. while moderate snowfall
will be ongoing south of 8 mile road in response to the
aforementioned developing fgen response on wed morning, current data
suggest that the bulk of accumulating snowfall - save for some
bleed-over into southern livingston/oakland/macomb counties - will
get underway mainly after 21z when upper forcing ramps up and the
baroclinic zone begins to pivot in cyclonic fashion ahead of an
approaching shortwave.
snow ratios of 14:1 to 16:1 are reasonable given the cold thermal
profile and dgz in the neighborhood of 300mb deep across central
portions of the cwa. further south, a potentially shallower dgz over
the southern two tiers of counties will be offset by lower elevation
forcing along the frontal slope. here, organized vertical motion
below and within the dgz should force a good degree of
supersaturation and ultimately result in a good environment for
dendrite formation. it is within this area that 4 to 6 inches of
snowfall is expected and for which a winter weather advisory has
been issued. amounts will taper to 2-4" within the next tier of counties
and to 2" or less along the i-69 corridor.
lake effect will also become a concern by wednesday afternoon as a
favorable northeasterly fetch develops across lake huron and 0-1k
theta-e lapse rates fall to moderate values around -3k/km. although
it appears that the nam is oversimulating the contribution of lake
enhancement to the overall low-level moisture field tomorrow,
especially north of i-69, it does appear that minor accumulations
will be possible across the thumb into tomorrow night. of greater
concern will be thursday into thursday night when colder air and a
more favorable northerly fetch will result in considerably more
overlake instability and at least the potential for significant lake
effect snow accumulation.
extended forecast through the first weekend of the new year into the
beginning of next week will see temperatures in the upper 20s before
taking a plunge yet again. main story will be the temperatures as
another arctic blast looks to overtake the area early next week
along with continued potential for snow showers. upper level ridge
will shift east on saturday...with lows dropping into the single
digits saturday morning. an upper level trough then starts to dig
through the midwest later in the weekend which will help to moderate
temps...although readings will still remain below normal before
another reinforcing shot of even colder arctic air takes over.
&&

http://www.toledoblade.com/local/2013/12/31/6-8-inches-of-snow-expected-to-blanket-Toledo-area.html

#weather

From JR's : articles
4442 words - 28383 chars - 24 min read
created on Dec 30, 2013 at 02:15:20 am
updated on Dec 31, 2013 at 08:35:18 pm - #
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