Early jan 2014 weather forecast

morning jan 1 2014 info

Today at 7:00 a.m., I measured 2.25 inches of new snow that accumulated since it began last evening between 9:00 and 10:00 p.m.

From this morning's winter weather advisory statement for our area:

accumulations...2 to 4 inches of [additional] snow is possible today.
snowfall will become heavier tonight with another 4 to 6 inches
possible by thursday night.

in addition...winds will shift to the north/northeast and increase in
intensity on thursday. this will cause blowing and drifting
snow...along with decreased visibility.

north to northeast winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph
with gusts to 35 mph.

A solid mid-winter weather pattern is setting up for the near-term, anyway. Forecast calls for some below zero temps and possibly another snowstorm on Sunday and Monday, followed by even "cooler" air early next week, which could create a significant lake effect snow event in the northeast Ohio snowbelt. Forecast:

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -2. Wind chill values as low as -17. North wind 10 to 16 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 12. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 4.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 31.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Sunday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 29.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 16.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -1.

Tuesday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 8.

Jan 1, 2014 Cle NWS morning statements:

the potential exists for another major winter storm to affect the
local area sunday through tuesday. an arctic cold front with the
coldest air in quite some time is expected to move east across the
area on sunday while low pressure moves northeast along the front.
the storm will bring with it snow to the area. the arctic air mass along with
gusty winds could also bring some dangerously cold wind chills to
the area as well.

early next week some of the strongest
cold air is forecast to move into the region by all of the long
range models. as upper level ridge moves east of the area by
sunday...large or should i say massive polar low slides south toward
eastern canada and the united states by monday.

models are starting to come into agreement with the development of a
low pressure system that will move northeast along the cold front
sunday at the surface. the storm system is expected to intensify as
it moves into the region.

some of the biggest storms for this area originate out of the gulf coast
region when an extreme cold air out break takes place.

as arctic air spills into the
region sunday night into monday...conditions could possibly become
really nasty. *the front and low pressure system on sunday could have
the potential to bring some significant snow and dangerously cold
wind chills to the entire forecast area.* added to that will be gusty
winds with the storm system producing blowing and drifting snow.

then...as low pressure moves east with the arctic front...we are not
done yet. the synoptic snow will transition into a lake effect snow
event. the potential exists with lake temperatures in the lower 30s
and lake wide open for some intense lake effect snow bands.

---

I like using data provided by Forecast.io who also maintains the Dark Sky iOS app.

• http://forecast.io/lines - displays forecasts from the various data sources used by Forecast.io.
• http://forecast.io/raw - Forecast.io raw data sources.
• Forecast.io 7-day forecast for Toledo

If you view Forecast.io Lines for Tuesday, January 7, Forecast.io only shows two models predicting temps that far in advance: GFS (Global Forecast System) and CMC (Canadian Meteorological Center).

And those two models show a wild range of morning low temp predictions for Toledo for Tue, Jan 7:

• cmc: +3
• gfs: -19

For Tue, Jan 7, Forecast.io predicts a morning low temp of -10, and the National Weather Service predicts -2.

For Friday morning, January 3, here are Toledo's morning low predictions:

• gfs: 0
• Cleveland NWS: -2
• nam: -5
• Forecast.io: -6
• cmc: -6
• sref: -6

---

fxus61 kcle 020534
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1234 am est thu jan 2 2014

synopsis...
low pressure over the central plains will cross the ohio valley on
thursday and redevelop along the east coast thursday night...then
move out to sea. arctic high pressure from the northern plains will
slide across the ohio valley and lower great lakes on friday. the
high will be east of the area on saturday and temperatures will
moderate a little. the next arctic cold front is due on sunday. a
wave of low pressure my develop on the front. even colder arctic
high pressure is expected the first half of next week.
&&

near term /through today/...
light snow continues to slowly progress to the east. the current
area of snow matches the models fairly well and is consistent with
the current forecast. snow should spread over all sections of the
forecast area after midnight. no major adjustments to this
forecast. i will tweak temperatures and dewpoints to reflect the
current trends but the remainder of the forecast will remain intact.
previous discussion...
tough forecast to categorize. erie pa has already had close to 5
inches of snow since midnight but they will have a lull through
this evening. snow will increase overnight from northwest to
southeast as the relatively weak panhandle hook tracks northeast
for part two of the event.
we already obviously have a nice baroclinic zone in place which will
tighten as cold advection increases on the north and west side of
the surface low with the arctic high in place. the trough aloft is
still well to the west and the best jet dynamics are not progged to
be over head until thursday. the jet dynamics are progged to
increase by thursday night but that will primarily affect the
coastal redevelopment. no gulf inflow of moisture into the storm. we
will have to make all of the snow from dynamic and thermodynamic
forcing/upward motion. the snow will remain relatively fluffy
although the flakes may be small much of the time.
the northeast wind will pick up by thursday morning and blowing
and drifting will start to become an issue...especially across
northwest ohio. i am about 50-50 on upgrading to a winter storm
warning for the lakeshore counties from lorain county across the
snowbelt into nw pa. the deciding factor at this point is that i
think the snowfall rates will not become very high...probably
staying less than a half an inch an hour. would rather see a
period of 1/2 to 1 inch an hour snowfall rates for a while to have
a bigger impact. will stick with the winter weather advisory but
it will be high end at a number of locations as far as snow totals.
will not issue wind chill advisories until the winter weather
advisories expire...the winter weather advisories also include low
wind chill.
temperatures will not drop off much tonight...then steady or
slowly falling on thursday.
&&

short term /tonight through friday night/...
the snow will pull out from west to east thursday afternoon/evening
and evolve into a lake effect event. the wind will be northerly for
a while thursday night so the secondary snow belt...southern
cuyahoga county into medina and summit counties...will continue to
see snow showers. the remainder of the snowbelt will also see snow
showers. the arctic air will not hold much moisture and the snow
showers will not amount to anything heavy...but the snow showers
will probably be persistent. it will clear across northwest ohio.
with fresh snow cover...low temps will drop below zero where there
is clearing. wind chill advisories will be needed...at least the
first half of thursday night until the wind diminishes.
the fluffy snow will settle nicely on friday. the lake effect snow
showers will gradually end as high pressure moves overhead. there
should be a plenty of sunshine for northwest ohio. highs barely
getting out of the single digits. used the raw boundary layer
model temps in the forecast...usually works better than mos
guidance during an arctic outbreak.
&&

long term /saturday through wednesday/...
after a chilly end to the work week...the roller coast ride
continues. high pressure will be across the east coast with
southerly flow for the ohio valley. area gets a surge of warmer air
saturday and will bring temperatures up around freezing. cold front
from the upper midwest with the first blast of cold air crosses the
area early on sunday. a wave of low pressure will develop along the
front...question is when. ecmwf is strongest with the low
development across eastern oh and keeps the cold air held back. tend
to side with the colder solution of the gfs/ensgfs and allow that
cold front to cross the area fully sunday. unfortunately with so
much uncertainty and model high temperatures ranging from the teens
to the lower 30s. have settled around 30 with an early high. snow
most likely with this system...especially with the colder solution
we are going with. likely a shovel-able snow.
the next big weather impact will come with temperatures early next
work/school week. good agreement amongst the models with the degree
of cold air that will spread across the region. this will be some of
the coldest air we have seen in a few years. some single digit lows
for sunday night. monday night and tuesday night will be at or below
zero for lows. the last time cleveland hopkins airport had a low
temperature below zero was just shy of 3 years ago. added concern
with these temperatures will be the wind. there will be enough to
make it feel even colder. at this point for early next
week...everyday sensible weather will be tough to pinpoint. upper
trough lingers across the great lakes with minor disturbances that
are too hard to time this far out.
&&

aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
a recent break in the ceilings has quickly deteriorated as we can
expected mvfr ceiling for most areas this evening...which will
drop to ifr as the snow spreads east over the next 3 to 6 hours.
the best forcing for snow will be after daybreak...which will
coincide with an increase in winds. wind speeds near the lakeshore
will be gusting near 30 mph...closer to 20 mph inland. the wind
combined with the light snow cover and ongoing snow showers will
likely lead to visibilites under a mile for the better part of
thursday. the low is expected to pull away thursday
evening...however blowing snow will continue to reduce
visibilities. as the winds shift to the north by evening some lake
huron snow bands could develop and impact cle...but too difficult
to pin point the lake effect bands at this time.

outlook...ifr conditions will linger in snow showers late
thursday night...especially from cle/mfd east. non- vfr
conditions will return saturday night into sunday with snow
showers accompanying the next cold front.
&&

marine...
biggest concerns for the lake will be the increasing north-northeast
winds tonight through thursday night and elevated heavy freezing
spray conditions for that same time period. some concern that winds
could reach low end gales for the central third of the lake thursday
afternoon. glerl ice accumulation/freezing spray model showing a
period of freezing spray reaching the extreme category thursday
night. low temperatures thursday night expected to reach single
digits. after deepening low pressure tracks across the ohio valley
thursday...high pressure will move over the lower lakes and ohio
valley friday. by this point wind/waves will be diminishing. next
cold front crosses sometime on sunday with a wind shift to the
northwest. winds not overly strong with this...but pick up
again...20-25 knots monday.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 1 am est friday for ohz011>014-
020>023-031>033-038-089.
winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
ohz003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
pa...winter weather advisory until 1 am est friday for paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est friday for lez142>149.
&&
$$
synopsis...kosarik
near term...garnet
short term...kosarik
long term...oudeman
aviation...jamison
marine...oudeman

#weather