Sample day 3 convective outlook text page

spc ac 170722

day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0222 am cdt mon jun 17 2013

valid 191200z - 201200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms for parts of mt wed afternoon
to wed night...

...synopsis...
a vigorous shortwave impulse embedded within the basal portion of
the amplified wrn conus upper-level trough should eject newd from
the nwrn great basin to the nrn rockies by early thu. this will
induce lee cyclogenesis over ern mt with a cold front accelerating
ewd across the nrn high plains wed night. farther s...the dryline
will probably mix off the higher terrain in the cntrl/srn high
plains. a mid-level ridge should continue to slowly slide ewd across
the great plains with weak height rises mainly late in the period.

...mt...
preceding days of low-level moist advection should yield
predominately 50s surface dew points across most of the lee of the
nrn rockies at peak heating wed. with steep lapse rates throughout
the troposphere...air mass should become rather unstable with mlcape
likely reaching 1500-2500 j/kg. mid-level height falls and dcva
downstream of the approaching shortwave trough will overspread wrn
mt by afternoon and into cntrl mt by evening...with isolated to
scattered tstm development likely occurring over the higher terrain.
meridional mid/upper-level wind profiles will favor n/nely storm
motions with a few supercells primarily producing large hail.
convection may grow upscale during the evening as the llj
strengthens with an organized cluster producing a mix of severe
wind/hail.

...great plains...
although moderate to strong buoyancy should exist across the bulk of
the plains...overall pattern appears nebulous for warranting slight
risk probabilities attm. with mid-level heights slowly rising and
moderate 700 mb winds becoming predominately swly...it appears
probable that the wrn periphery of the plains moisture plume should
mix e of the higher terrain /especially in the lee of the srn
rockies/. however...the nam remains farther w than the
ecmwf/ukmet/gfs/cmc and suggests another round of cntrl/srn high
plains convection will fire wed afternoon. most other guidance
suggest convection may remain quite isolated along the dryline owing
to a strengthening eml/capping inversion. where isolated dryline
tstms are able to form...sufficient deep-layer shear will exist for
supercells and a risk for severe hail/wind. somewhat higher tstm
probabilities are apparent along the leading edge of the cap where
nocturnal elevated tstms are possible as the llj strengthens. some
of this activity may pose a risk for marginally severe hail/wind.

..grams.. 06/17/2013

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