Tt post sep 16 2015

Foodie posted at 09:16:41 AM on Sep 16, 2015:

Based on the results of yesterday's election, I quite confidently predict Czarty will be the next mayor. Toledo voters definitely fit the definition of insanity.

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I don't know. Weeks ago, I thought that the order would be:

1. Bell
2. Carty
3. Hicks-Hudson

But with the state democrat party providing heavy artillery support to PH2, and since PH2 is the only "real" democrat in the race, now I think that PH2 has a good chance of winning.

Past mayoral elections:

2005:
Carty Finkbeiner - 47,351 - 61%
Jack Ford - 29,169 - 38%

2009:
Mike Bell - 35,118 - 52%
Keith Wilkowski - 31,987 - 48%

September 2013 primary:
(I) Michael P. Bell - 6340 - 27%
(I) D. Michael Collins - 5806 - 24%
(D) Anita Lopez - 5443 - 23%
(D) Joe McNamara - 5328 - 22%

I think that PH2 will attract the voters who chose Ford in 2005, Wilkowski in 2009, and Lopez and McNamara in 2013.

And since the rest of the November 2015 vote will be divvied up among at least four other candidates, then PH2 may have enough to win.

Normally, the mayor takes the oath of office in January. But since we have a special election this year, I think that the mayor will begin serving the remainder of D. Michael Collins's term as soon as the board of elections certifies the vote, which could be in late November or early December.

Looking ahead, Toledo's next regularly scheduled mayoral election will occur in 2017. Regardless of who wins this November, that person will not be elected mayor in 2017.

First of all, Carty and Bell have been vague about whether they would run in 2017 if they win this year. But it doesn't matter.

Like the internet, the "word on the street" is always correct.

And the street states that Wade Kapszukiewicz will be the officially-endorsed democrat candidate for mayor of Toledo in 2017. Currently, Wade is in his early 40s.

Wade considered running for mayor this year, but he remained loyal to the party and chose to endorse PH2. If PH2 had been an independent or a republican, then obviously, Wade would have entered the race.

If PH2 wins this November, then I'm sure that the party will find something else for her to do after 2017. Maybe a state or county position would be available.

Wade should win easily in 2017. And if chooses, he could probably win again in 2021. The next chance for someone else to be mayor of Toledo may not occur until 2025.

I'm guessing that Marcy Kaptur will leave office within the next 10 years. Assuming that redistricting does not occur, then a democrat from either the Toledo or Cleveland area will be anointed as Kaptur's successor. Will that be Wade, Webb, or someone else?

#toledo #politics