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Toledo weather - Wed Jun 22 2016

md 1023 concerning severe potential...watch unlikely for southern lower mi/far northeast indiana and far northwest oh

mesoscale discussion 1023
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0707 pm cdt wed jun 22 2016

areas affected...southern lower mi/far northeast indiana and far
northwest oh

concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely

valid 230007z - 230200z

probability of watch issuance...20 percent

summary...an isolated hail threat will be possible across mainly
southwest and south-central lower mi...and perhaps far northeast
indiana and far northwest oh as elevated storms developing over far
southeast wi and across southern lake mi track to the southeast this
evening. limited severe storm coverage precludes the need for a
watch at this time.

discussion...trends in early evening mosaic radar imagery indicated
a cluster of elevated storms extending from extreme southeast wi
e/se across southern lake mi...with a storm over the lake
/approximately at 35 nw beh/ having indicated possible hail around 1
inch in diameter per mrms data. storms ongoing in far southwest
lower mi into northeast indiana have tended to be weak. this would
suggest this activity may be surface-based given presence of weak
instability. meanwhile...the stronger storms located across
southern lake mi appear to being fed by a 40-kt southwesterly
low-level jet in northeast il per area vwps...with the stronger
instability in il. effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt across the
discussion area will support storm organization...with the threat
for isolated severe hail this evening.

..peters/edwards.. 06/23/2016

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...dtx...iwx...grr...

lat...lon 42988622 42688510 42388441 41938401 41638393 41358421
41418478 41428519 41678579 41868637 42068657 42608654
42988622

First warning for the complex

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Issued: 6:33 PM CDT Jun. 22, 2016 – National Weather Service

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
northwestern Lee County in north central Illinois...

until 715 PM CDT

at 633 PM CDT... a severe thunderstorm was located near Dixon...
moving east at 20 mph.

Hazard... 70 mph wind gusts.

Source... radar indicated.

Impact... expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to
Mobile homes... roofs... and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Dixon... Walton... Franklin Grove and Nelson.

Including the following Interstate...
I-88 between mile markers 49 and 61.

This includes... Sauk Valley College.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 am CDT for north central
Illinois.

Lat... Lon 4188 8963 4190 8962 4188 8928 4169 8940
4181 8963
time... Mot... loc 2333z 287deg 19kt 4184 8958

Tornado... possible
hail... <.75in
wind... 70mph

Izzi

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA
LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 610 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...GRADUALLY DEEPENING CONVECTION NOW ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS THREATENING
EVERY FORM OF SEVERE WEATHER...THEN AFTER A FEW HOURS...INTO A
COMPLEX OF STORMS WITH MOSTLY A DAMAGING-WIND RISK. AN
ORGANIZED...DERECHO-PRODUCING SYSTEM ULTIMATELY MAY DEVELOP FROM
THIS ACTIVITY TONIGHT.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS
IOWA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF VALPARAISO INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035.

...EDWARDS

Much of Ohio is now under a flood watch for tonight, but not our area.

For Hancock County ...

... Flash Flood Watch in effect from 10 PM EDT this evening
through Thursday morning...

strong and possibly severe thunderstorms overnight will produce
torrential rainfall. Intense rainfall rates could produce a
quick two to three inches of rainfall. This rapid runoff can
overwhelm storm drainage systems and small streams and creeks.
Some areas could be impacted by storms multiple times overnight
which could push rainfall totals over four inches.

Given this rainfall will occur during the night when the impacts
of flash flooding are more difficult to see... those living near
small creeks and streams which respond quickly to heavy rain
need to monitor rainfall and stream levels during the night.
Those traveling are encouraged to be alert for water over Road
which may be difficult to see... and turn around if water is
indeed flowing over the Road.

md 1020 concerning severe potential...tornado watch likely for ern ia...far srn wi...nrn into cntrl il...nw ind

mesoscale discussion 1020
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0338 pm cdt wed jun 22 2016

areas affected...ern ia...far srn wi...nrn into cntrl il...nw ind

concerning...severe potential...tornado watch likely

valid 222038z - 222215z

probability of watch issuance...95 percent

summary...scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by 23z.
these storms will quickly become severe with tornadoes...damaging
winds and large hail possible into the evening hours. a tornado
watch will likely be needed within the next hour for portions of the
mcd area.

discussion...convection during most of the morning hours and related
cloud cover across ia/wi/il/ind has resulted in maintenance of
strong capping /as evident in 19z regional raobs/. however...recent
clearing in the last 1-2 hours has allowed for strong surface
heating with temperatures climbing from the upper 60s f into the mid
70s to low 80s f as far north as the il/wi border. additional
heating and moistening should continue to erode the cap. as deep
layer forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the upper
shortwave impulse...storms are expected to develop across ern ia/sw
wi/far nw il by 23z. once storms develop...they are expected to
track e-se along a strong instability gradient in the vicinity of a
warm front draped across nrn il into central ind.

steep midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 c/km per dvn and ilx 19z raobs
and 0-6 km shear greater than 50 kt will support rotating updrafts
and large hail. furthermore...rich boundary layer moisture with
mixing ratios near 14 g/kg and backed low-level winds evident in 19z
raobs and...more recently...indicated by regional vwp/s...will
support a few tornadoes /potentially one or two sig tors/. storms
are expected to grow upscale into a southeastward propagating mcs
with a coincident increase in damaging wind threat into
indiana...and later tonight the ohio valley.

..leitman/guyer.. 06/22/2016

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...iwx...ind...lot...ilx...mkx...dvn...arx...

lat...lon 41509103 42529189 42969203 43259176 43229105 42958906
42508793 41868652 41458606 40868600 40478615 39868638
39658669 39548714 39628784 39988867 40839009 41269075
41509103

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 221647
IAZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-WIZ000-230200-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Select a General
Area this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
Northern and central Indiana
Northern and central Illinois
Western Ohio
Southwestern Lower Michigan
Southern Wisconsin
Northeastern Iowa

* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
A few intense tornadoes
Scattered large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
Widespread damaging wind gusts with some greater than 70 miles
per hour along with tornadoes and isolated large hail are
expected this afternoon and evening from northeast Iowa into
extreme southern Wisconsin, northern and central Illinois,
southwest lower Michigan, northern to central Indiana and parts
of western Ohio. A wind damage threat may also affect the upper
Ohio Valley and central and southern Appalachians.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

..Leitman.. 06/22/2016

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
908 am edt wed jun 22 2016

lez142>146-162>166-ohz003-006>011-017>022-027>033-036>038-047-231315-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh-lucas-wood-
ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-
summit-portage-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-
mahoning-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
908 am edt wed jun 22 2016

this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

thunderstorms may be severe late today and tonight.

severe thunderstorms will develop in the midwest today. these
severe thunderstorms have a good chance of reaching the local
area tonight...especially northwest and north central ohio.

damaging winds are the primary severe weather threat. widespread
damaging winds are possible. isolated tornados are possible.
torrential downpours will occur with the storms.

.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed.

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 221324
IAZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-WIZ000-221800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0824 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Great Lakes
and the Ohio Valley region this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
Northern and central Indiana
Western Ohio
Northern Illinois
Southwestern Lower Michigan
Southern Wisconsin
Northeastern Iowa

* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
A few intense tornadoes
Isolated large hail up to baseball size

* SUMMARY...
Widespread damaging wind gusts with some greater than 70 miles
per hour along with tornadoes and isolated large hail are
expected this afternoon and evening from northeast Iowa into
extreme southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, southwest Lower
Michigan, northern to central Indiana and parts of western Ohio.
A wind damage threat may affect the upper Ohio Valley late this
evening into the central Appalachian mountains during the
overnight period.

Preparedness actions...

..Cohen/Guyer.. 06/22/2016

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
643 am edt wed jun 22 2016

lez142>146-162>166-ohz003-006>011-017>022-027>033-036>038-047-231045-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh-lucas-wood-
ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-
summit-portage-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-
mahoning-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
643 am edt wed jun 22 2016

this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

thunderstorms may be severe late today and tonight.

severe thunderstorms will develop in the midwest today. these
severe thunderstorms have a good chance of reaching the local
area late today or tonight...especially northwest and north
central ohio.

damaging winds are the primary severe weather threat. widespread
damaging winds are possible. isolated tornados are possible.
torrential downpours will occur with the storms.

.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation will be needed late today and tonight.

fxus63 kiwx 220901
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
501 am edt wed jun 22 2016

..widespread severe weather expected by early tonight....

synopsis...
issued at 152 am edt wed jun 22 2016

a warm front will return northward today as low pressure moves
toward the area. this will result in a renewed threat of showers
and thunderstorms, and an elevated threat of widespread severe
weather late this afternoon and early tonight. in addition, there
is a potential of heavy rainfall tonight. high temperatures today
and thursday will be around 80. lows tonight will be from the mid
60s to lower 70s.

short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 450 am edt wed jun 22 2016

a significant severe weather outbreak is expected late today and
early tonight. a fast moving upper level disturbance over the
northern plains will race southeast and move across the area early
tonight. storms over north dakota associated with this system early
this morning will move southeast and eventually intensify into a
fast moving line of storms. these storms are expected to produce
widespread wind damage by early tonight over the forecast area as a
warm front moves northeast. substantial low level shear will elevate
the risk for tornadoes, so have included this mention in the
hazardous weather outlook. have coordinated rainfall amounts with
the weather prediction center and have raised amounts tonight as
precipitable water values top 2.0 inches. the spc has shifted the
moderate risk just a little to the southwest from the day 2 outlook
yesterday to be more in line where upper level support will be
colocated where storms are able to become surface based.

long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 450 am edt wed jun 22 2016

the severe weather threat will be waning early thursday as the upper
level disturbance moves out of the area. lingering showers will end
by thursday afternoon with conditions becoming less humid later in
the day. heat and humidity will begin returning friday with highs
climbing to near 90 late in the weekend. heat indices will top 90
degrees sunday. have raised shower and storm chances sunday and
sunday night favoring the model blend.

aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z wednesday night)
issued at 146 am edt wed jun 22 2016

vfr conditions to continue through 12-15z. warm front and
associated elevated convections will overspread the area from the
west aft 15z. expect to see vfr to mvfr conditions as the core of
warm air and afternoon heating work to produce more cu/stratus.
next round of convection works into the region as mcc/mcs moves
out of il/wi toward the end of the taf period. expect to see
significantly lower cigs/vsbys as this convection moves in.

iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
mi...none.
oh...none.
lm...none.
&&

synopsis...lewis
short term...skipper
long term...skipper
aviation...lewis

visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

follow us on facebook...twitter...and youtube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsnorthernindiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/nwsnorthernindiana

spc ac 220559

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1259 am cdt wed jun 22 2016

valid 221200z - 231200z

...there is a mdt risk of svr tstms across parts of ern ia...srn
wi...nrn il...nrn and cntrl ind...sw lower mi and wcntrl oh...

...there is an enh risk of svr tstms across parts of the upper ms
valley...srn great lakes...oh valley and cntrl appalachian mtns
outside of the moderate risk area...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms across parts of the upper ms
valley...srn great lakes region...oh valley...srn and cntrl
appalachian mtns and mid-atlantic outside of the enhanced risk
area...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms across parts of the mid to
upper ms valley...srn great lakes region...oh and tn valleys...srn
and cntrl appalachian mtns and mid-atlantic outside of the slight
risk area...

...summary...
widespread damaging wind gusts with some greater than 70 miles per
hour along with tornadoes and isolated large hail are expected this
afternoon and evening from northeast iowa into southern
wisconsin...northern illinois...southwest lower michigan...northern
to central indiana and parts of western ohio. a wind damage threat
may affect the upper ohio valley late this evening into the central
appalachian mountains and mid-atlantic during the overnight period.

...upper ms valley/srn great lakes/oh valley/cntrl appalachians...
an impressive and unseasonable fast-moving shortwave trough will
move esewd from the nrn plains into the upper ms valley today. ahead
of the system...a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across
the mid to upper ms valley extending ewd into the oh and tn valleys.
this setup will be favorable for a significant wind damage event
across parts of the upper ms valley...srn great lakes and oh valley
this afternoon and evening.

at the sfc...a warm front is forecast to setup from nrn il into
cntrl ind during the day with a wnw-ese oriented sharp gradient of
instability located along the front. a band of convection may be
ongoing near or just to the south of the warm front from ia sewd
into cntrl il at the start of the period. this convection is
forecast to move sewd into the oh river valley and may have an
isolated wind damage threat. as a moderately unstable warm sector
develops back to the west across the mid to upper ms valley...an
associated 60 to 75 kt mid-level jet will approach the region from
the west. the progressive mid-level jet will enhance large-scale
ascent and strengthen deep-layer shear across the upper ms valley
making conditions favorable for organized severe storms.

sfc-based thunderstorms are forecast to first initiate in ne ia to
the northeast of a sfc low during the mid afternoon. supercells with
large hail...wind damage and perhaps a strong tornado will be
possible with the initial development but a rather quick transition
to linear mode should take place. this line of storms is forecast to
move quickly esewd across nrn il into ncntrl ind where a bowing
linear mcs appears likely. model solutions including the cams and
deterministic solutions show differing scenarios but are supporting
this idea that a fast-moving linear mcs will track esewd across the
moderate risk area. i am favoring a more east southeast mcs track
much like the wrf-nssl4...nam and gfs solutions along the expected
gradient of moderate instability from near dubuque ia across srn
parts of the chicago metro to between south bend and indianapolis
ind to near columbus oh. a swath of wind damage along with a cluster
of tornadoes will be possible along this corridor. wind gusts above
65 kt will be possible near the apex of the bowing mcs. the
elongated instability corridor parallel to the mid-level flow
combined with a well-developed fast-moving upper-level system will
make a derecho possible across the region from late afternoon to the
mid evening. a wind damage threat may affect parts of the upper oh
valley late this evening into parts of the cntrl appalachian mtns
and mid-atlantic during the overnight period.

..broyles/picca.. 06/22/2016

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z

From JR's : articles
3270 words - 22377 chars - 18 min read
created on Jun 22, 2016 at 05:40:24 am
updated on Jun 22, 2016 at 07:27:28 pm - #
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