• Nov 17-18, 2013 forecast
• SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook
• Fri, Nov 15 Hzrd Outlk
• Fri night info, Nov 15
• Sat, Nov 16

November weather in the Great Lakes Region

(My Nov 14, 2013 comment in a ToledoTalk.com thread about possible severe weather on Nov 17, 2013.)

Thanks for the heads up. I don't include the 4-plus day convective outlook in my weather web app.

"I don't think it bears reminding of how violent storms can be in November, considering what happened just a few years ago."

November weather in the Great Lakes ...

# - ... when it comes to volatile weather for the Great Lakes region, I believe November is second after the March-April period. Floods, strong winds, heavy lake-effect snow storms, bitter cold, and warm temps are somewhat common occurrences in November. As one weather dude said, it's winter and summer fighting it out.

# - A few Novembers ago, the northeast Ohio snowbelt got hammered with a multi-day lake effect snowstorm that dumped snow amounts that were measured in feet not inches. And we're only a few days away from the four-year anniversary of the deadly tornados that hit western Ohio. In the Great Lakes region, I don't think any other month produces the weather extremes like November. To a meteorologist, November is a fascinating time.

Nov 10, 2002

The Veterans Day Weekend tornado outbreak that impacted parts of northwest Ohio occurred on November 10, 2002.

An F4 tornado hit Van Wert, Ohio, killing two people. November 2012 Toledo Blade story about the 10-year anniversary of the Van Wert tornado.

20 tornado touchdowns were recorded in Ohio on Nov 10, 2002. Here are the ones reported closer to Toledo.

Intensity	Location	County	Time	Path Length	Damage
F1	E of Cygnet	Wood	4:54 pm	4.5 miles
F2	N of Fostoria	Hancock, Seneca	4:57 pm	9 miles
F0	SE of Perrysburg	Wood	5:10 pm	0.1 mile
F3	SE of Tiffin	Seneca	5:15 pm	21 miles	1 death
F1	NW of Millbury	Wood	5:19 pm	0.5 mile
F1	Fremont	Sandusky	5:20 pm	3.5 miles
F2	Port Clinton	Ottawa	5:30 pm	10 miles
F1	W of Norwalk	Huron	5:42 pm	7.5 miles

(Prior to 2007, the National Weather Service used the Fujita scale to rate tornadoes. Now they use the Enhanced Fujita scale. )

Nov 17, 2013

"Things to keep in mind with these systems. They don't require the same level of heating and instability as Spring/Summer events require because storms this time of the year tend to have better upper air dynamics."

On Nov 10, 2002, Toledo Express Airport recorded a high temperature of 66 degrees.

The current Toledo forecast calls for high temps on Sun, Nov 17, 2013 to be in the low to mid 60s.

While this Sunday may feel relatively nice, the lack of hot weather may be deceiving if all of the other dynamics exist for severe weather. It may not "feel" like a thunderstorm day.

I assume that in 2013, more people have the ability to be alerted to bad weather than in 2002. The Van Wert tornado destroyed a movie theater that was mostly evacuated shortly before the tornado hit.

Tablets, cell phones, apps, social media. Should be no excuse to be somewhat aware today. And being aware does not mean being hysterical. No need to build bunkers nor cancel anything.

Nov 17-18, 2013 forecast

A slight diff in the forecasts between Sun and Mon:

Sunday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 68. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday: A chance of rain showers before 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Since temps are expected to fall all day Monday, temps will probably be in the 30s on Monday afternoon, which will be about 30 degrees cooler than 24 hours earlier.

Tuesday's high temp is forecast to be in the mid 30s.

Toledo's record high temp for Nov 17 is 71 degrees set in 1931.

Current forecast discussion from the Cleveland NWS:

a big change is coming through this period as a november gale develops across the great lakes region over the weekend.
potential still exists at this time that we will likely see at least wind advisories posted for sunday into monday. potential does exist that we will need to go higher with high wind warnings.

cold front sweeps through the area sunday night and the overnight lows could possibly be the high for the day on monday. we should see nearly steady or falling temperatures during the day monday and into monday night.

The SPC's day 3 (Sunday) convective outlook includes all of Ohio and southeast Michigan in the Slight risk for severe thunderstorms.

SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook

Issued on Fri, Nov 15, 2013 for Sun, Nov 17.

spc ac 150830

day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 am cst fri nov 15 2013

valid 171200z - 181200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over a portion of the tn and oh
valleys and great lakes areas...

...synopsis...

a shortwave trough with attendant strong upper jet embedded within
base of the synoptic trough will eject negatively tilted through the
mid ms and oh valleys sunday...reaching a portion of the nern u.s.
toward the end of the period. this feature will induce a sfc cyclone
that is forecast to undergo significant deepening as it moves newd
from the upper ms valley into the great lakes sunday afternoon. cold
front trailing from the low will sweep through the mid ms...oh and
tn valleys...while a warm front lifts nwd through the oh valley and
great lakes.

...oh and tn valley regions...

a strong 50+ kt swly llj will advect partially modified gulf air
with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s into the oh valley and
great lakes region with mid 60s likely farther south across the tn
valley area. the moisture return will be accompanied by widespread
clouds that will limit diabatic heating of the boundary layer in
much of pre-frontal warm sector. moreover...areas of showers and a
few thunderstorms will probably be ongoing over a portion of the oh
valley warm sector. thus the primary destabilization mechanism will
probably be moisture advection...but sfc based instability will
likely remain somewhat marginal /mlcape aob 500 j/kg/...especially
with nwd and ewd extent into the oh valley and great lakes.

nevertheless...the deepening cyclone will be accompanied by an
increase in frontogenetic forcing along the cold front sweeping ewd
through the oh valley. storms may increase during the day along
pre-frontal warm conveyor belt beneath diffluent upper jet exit
region. other storms will initiate along strengthening cold front.
potential will exist for pre-frontal storms to develop supercell
structures given strength of vertical shear and size of hodographs
along llj...but extent of any tornado threat will depend on degree
of boundary layer destabilization. otherwise...storms will likely
evolve into lines along the cold front with a threat for widespread
damaging wind as the activity develops ewd through the oh and tn
valley regions.

...ny and pa...
storms will eventually outpace the moist axis sunday night and
encounter much weaker instability as they approach the nern states.
however...at least a modest threat for isolated damaging wind with
remaining low topped convection cannot be ruled out late this
period.

..dial.. 11/15/2013

click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product

note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0830z

Fri, Nov 15 Hzrd Outlk

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
503 pm est fri nov 15 2013

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-162215-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
503 pm est fri nov 15 2013

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...tonight.

hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.days two through seven...saturday through thursday.

there is a slight risk of severe weather late sunday afternoon and
sunday evening with the passage of a strong cold front. the primary
threat will be strong thunderstorm winds but there will be a
chance of tornadoes.

there is a chance that winds will be fairly gusty ahead of the
front on sunday but the strongest winds are expected behind the
cold front sunday night. winds may gust to 50 mph and a wind
advisory may be needed. strong winds may continue along the
lakeshore into monday.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed from late sunday afternoon
through late sunday evening.

$$

Fri night info, Nov 15

"what's going to happen and when."

Tune in on Sunday morning. At that time, the NWS should have a pretty good idea on the who, what, when, and where.

But here's a little taste from the most recent hazardous outlook message issued by the Cleveland NWS at 5:03 p.m. on Fri, Nov 15, 2013:

there is a slight risk of severe weather late sunday afternoon and sunday evening with the passage of a strong cold front. the primary threat will be strong thunderstorm winds but there will be a chance of tornadoes.

there is a chance that winds will be fairly gusty ahead of the front on sunday but the strongest winds are expected behind the cold front sunday night. winds may gust to 50 mph and a wind advisory may be needed. strong winds may continue along the lakeshore into monday.

And for the SKYWARN people:

spotter activation may be needed from late sunday afternoon through late sunday evening.

My big concern is that the NFL broadcasts could be interrupted by the local TV weather people.

From the forecast discussion issued by the Cleveland NWS at 9:40 p.m. on Fri, Nov 15, 2013:

interesting weather setting up during this time frame as the warm sector approaches the area with a strong wind field in place. spc has the entire area in a slight risk for severe storms which will be conditional on the degree of heating and instability that can be materialized.

we could see a break in the showers during the daytime hours [Sunday] with showers and thunderstorms developing as the cold front approaches late in the day.

southerly winds will range from 20-30 mph with a few gusts to 40 mph possible. expecting skies to stay mostly cloudy but if we do end up with some breaks in the clouds then winds could be stronger.

temperatures on sunday will be critical to the severe weather potential and effected by coverage of showers.

I assume that means that the NWS won't know for certain until Sunday. If the region has more sunshine than expected, then the severe potential increases. But if Sunday is cloudy and a bit rainy ahead of the front, then I'm guessing that the severe threat decreases. I'll defer to JustaSooner.

A bit more from the forecast discussion:

character of the severe weather will depend on instability with line segments producing damaging winds the most likely scenario. however...there will also be a threat for mini-supercells and tornadoes given the tremendous shear.

winds will remain gusty sunday night behind the front and a wind advisory may be needed with gusts of 40-50 mph possible.

temperatures will drop back into the mid 40s by monday morning with falling temperatures continuing monday afternoon. winds will remain gusty on monday...especially near the lakeshore.

Sat, Nov 16

It's a bit unusual for our area to be under a Moderate Risk for severe weather at any time of the year, especially on the Day 2 Outlook.

The latest hazardous weather outlook:

a squall line is expected to develop and move across the
local area late sunday and sunday evening. very strong winds are
expected just off the surface. heavy rain from the squall line
could bring these strong winds down to the surface causing
widespread damage. this is very dangerous situation.

in addition...strong and gusty winds are expected behind the cold
front responsible for the squall line. wind advisories may be
needed sunday night into monday.

From the most recent area forecast discussion:

it's going to be a busy period with a lot of weather.

we are basically expecting a 6 hour or so period of showers
late tonight and sunday morning probably followed by a period of
dry weather and then another round of showers and storms late
sunday and sunday evening.

this second round of precip is potentially very dangerous

the cold front associated with the low will sweep east across the area sunday night.

a pre frontal squall line moving at considerable speed is expected.

widespread wind damage appears to be a possibility and the severe
weather outlook has been upgraded to moderate which seem reasonable.

From the Storm Prediction Center

potential exists for a widespread damaging wind event and a few
tornadoes sunday afternoon and night...especially in and near the
moderate risk area across parts of the oh valley and great lakes.

however...degree of the tornado threat
/should these storms develop/ will depend on magnitude of
destabilization within the warm sector boundary layer.

otherwise...storms should initiate along strengthening cold front
from the great lakes swwd into the mid ms and tn valleys and
subsequently develop ewd. given strength of vertical shear...these
storms will likely evolve into an organized linear mcs with lewp and
bow echo structures capable of producing widespread damaging wind.
isolated tornadoes associated with embedded meso-vortices also will
be possible with the squall line.

If a line of storms does form, it will move into the area quickly with not a lot of advance warning, and any storm could be brief but intense.

Regardless, it will be windy on Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday morning.

Lake Erie forecast:

sunday night... southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and
increasing to gales to 40 knots overnight. rain showers with a
chance of thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of rain
showers overnight. strong wind gusts possible in thunderstorms.
waves 3 to 5 feet building to 10 to 14 feet.

Most of the info has been moved to here:
Severe weather threat for Sun, Nov 17, 2013

#weather - #blog_jr