• NW lower MI
• NE OH
• UP MI
• Sat morn, Nov 23 AFD

Nov 22-24, 2013 Weather

Fri evening, Nov 22, 2013 Area Forecast Discussion

A minor lake effect snow event is forecast in northeast Ohio.

fxus61 kcle 222348
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
648 pm est fri nov 22 2013

synopsis...
cold front will exit east of the area this evening with a ridge
building in from the west. an arctic cold front will push south
across the area on saturday with lake effect snow developing. strong
high pressure will build east across the ohio valley late sunday.
&&

near term /until 6 am saturday morning/...
update...forecast on track. no significant changes.
original...area radars continue to show a light drizzle across ne
ohio/nw pa late this afternoon. will carry drizzle in the forecast
for a few hours with conditions drying out behind the cold front
this evening.
suface analysis shows one area of low pressure over quebec with a
seondary low developing developing north of lake superior. the first
low will exit to the northeast tonight with a ridge sharply building
into the low levels in advance of the second system. satellite
imagery shows the clearing line moving across western lower michigan
and will push into nw ohio during the evening. skies will clear
except for ne oh/nw pa where enhanced troughing downwind of the lake
will aid lake effect cloud developement. temperatures will fall into
the upper 20s for inland areas...holding near 30 along the lake.
&&

short term /6 am saturday morning through sunday night/...
upper level trough seen on water vapor imagery over canada will
surge south over the great lakes region on saturday...pushing an
arctic cold front south across the area. the 850mb temperature at
churchill manitoba was down to -24c this morning and models are in
agreement that the h850 temperature will drop to near -18c by sunday
morning. the initial frontal passage will lack moisture and will
just carry chance pops for most areas except downwind of lake erie.
those areas will see a quick burst of snow with the front and could
result in up to an inch of snow accumulation over the higher
terrain.
a break is expected before the lake effect snow ramps up during the
evening as the moisture depth increases with the passage of the
upper level trough. the combination of extreme instability over the
lake and upslope northwesterly flow will allow lake effect snow
showers to fill in across the snow belt. the heaviest accumulations
are expected in nw pa where models indicate we will establish a lake
huron connection. snowfall rates beneath this band could be 2 inches
per hour but hard to define exactly where this band will set. it
looks like fairly high chances of it impacting erie and crawford pa.
the airmass is cold enough that not expecting the lake to reduce
accumulations enough to leave the lakeshore areas out.
accumulations in nw pa will exceed 6 inches in many areas but
local amounts could exceed a foot by the time the snow ends if the
band becomes stationary.
have expanded the les watch to include geauga county where the
upslope component will cause enough enhancement for accumulations of
4 to 8 inches. the bulk of this will fall on saturday night with the
passage of the upper level trough. the rest of the snow belt will
see accumulating snow and lake effect snow advisories may be needed
in periphery counties. northwest winds will contribute to blusterly
conditions with speeds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph. the snow
will have a high snow/liquid ratio (15:1 or even 18:1) given the
cold airmass and will blow around easily.
strong high pressure over the midwest will expand over the ohio
valley on sunday and will be accompanied by very dry air. dewpoints
fall into the single digits and teens and snow will decrease in
coverage from west to east as this dry air intrudes. the
complicating factor of this forecast is how long it will take for
snow to decrease...given the limited moisture with the system.
decided to let the watches continue for another forecast package to
allow additional time to consider the moisture quality and placement
of lake effect snow bands before making determination on
warnings/advisories. heavy snow also not expected to develop until
saturday night.
&&

long term /monday through friday/...
very few changes to the long term today as the period looks cold
with occasional snow showers. will try to start the period off dry
on monday. a system will pass to the north on tuesday and drag a
cold front across the region. some warm air advection precip could
occur as early as monday night but better chances for measurable
precip will come with the front. winds will become favorable for
lake effect snow late tuesday through wednesday night. moisture
appears to be somewhat limited as it will be a dry airmass. as a
result...no more than chance pops for the time being. the surface
ridge will move just to east of the area on thursday and then linger
on friday. this will prevent an airmass change. high temps the
entire week will be a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
&&

aviation /23z saturday through wednesday/...
difficult forecast for the overnight hours. significant
drying...at least at midlevels will be coming in overnight.
evening nw gusts will subside some and the winds will back more
westerly as temporary ridging nudges toward the area. questions
will be what will happen with the current ifr/mvfr ceilings. most
model guidance wants to clear or scatter that out leaving vfr
conditions for morning. one model...the hrrr would like to
redevelop at least an mvfr ceiling across the west after 09z and
never really get rid of a non-vfr ceiling across the east. have
trended the forecast in this more pessimistic direction. models
have been too fast all day...and our current ceiling situation has
hung on longer than it was suppose to.
for saturday...next trough will drop south across the area for the
afternoon hours. some scattered snow activity possible with
this...the snow showers likely for the snowbelt. this will return
conditions to mvfr or lower. winds will also be gusty
saturday...with 25 knots for most...30 knots for some. for the
extended portion of the cle taf...winds will remain gusty even
after 00z sun.
outlook...non vfr mainly over ne oh and nw pa saturday night through
sunday because of lake effect. non vfr returning late monday night
into tuesday and continuing across ne oh/nw pa on wednesday.
&&

marine...
with the exception of a few hours later tonight will likely see
small craft conditions the entire period. nw flow will continue
tonight through sunday. speeds will increase late saturday as a
secondary cold front crosses the lake. could get sustained winds in
the 25 to 30 knot range for several hours behind the front. winds
will become sw on monday as surface ridge crosses the lake. speeds
will remain up with sustained winds of at least 20 knots. another
cold front will cross the lake on tuesday causing the flow to return
to the nw. strong north to nw flow will then continue through
wednesday.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...lake effect snow watch from saturday evening through sunday
evening for ohz013-014-089.
pa...lake effect snow watch from saturday evening through sunday
evening for paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est sunday for lez142>149.
&&
$$
synopsis...kec
near term...kec/tk
short term...kec
long term...kubina
aviation...oudeman
marine...kubina

NW lower MI

Lake Effect Snow Watch
Statement as of 4:15 PM EST on November 22, 2013

... Lake effect snow watch in effect from Saturday morning through
Sunday morning...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a lake effect
snow watch... which is in effect from Saturday morning through
Sunday morning.

Hazardous weather...

• a period of heavier snowfall expected overnight with the
  passage of the Arctic front.

• Heavy lake effect snow showers develop on Saturday and persist
  through Saturday night.

• Lake effect snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches by Sunday
  morning with localized accumulations exceeding 12 inches
  possible.

• Gusty northwest winds will produce some blowing snow and single
  digit wind chill readings.

Impacts...

• snow covered roads and poor visibility in falling and blowing
  snow will result in hazardous travel.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

• a lake effect snow watch means there is a potential for a
  large amount of snow in only a few hours. Visibilities and
  snowfall can vary greatly... impacting travel significantly.
  To learn more... visit US online at weather.Gov/Gaylord or
  find US on facebook and twitter.

NE OH

Lake Effect Snow Watch
Statement as of 3:41 PM EST on November 22, 2013

... Lake effect snow watch remains in effect from Saturday evening
through Sunday evening...

• accumulations... over 6 inches possible with locally higher
  amounts around a foot in northwest Pennsylvania where lake
  effect bands persist.

• Timing... lake effect snow will increase Saturday evening and
  become heavy at times overnight. The heaviest snow will occur
  from Saturday night through Sunday morning... with snow
  decreasing Sunday afternoon.

• Winds... northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph on
  Saturday night... decreasing on Sunday afternoon.

• Impacts... motorists should be alert for rapidly changing
  conditions that occur within bands of lake effect snow.

• Temperatures... will fall to the near 20 degrees Saturday night
  and and hold nearly steady on Sunday.

• Visibilities... could be below a quarter of a mile at times.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A lake effect snow watch means that significant winter weather is
possible in localized areas within the few days. Stay tuned to
NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates.

UP MI

Lake Effect Snow Warning
Statement as of 12:48 PM EST on November 22, 2013

... Lake effect snow warning remains in effect from midnight
tonight to noon EST Sunday...

Hazardous weather...

• heavy lake effect snow will start late this evening and continue
  through Sunday morning... with the heaviest snowfall rates
  expected Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

• Snow accumulations of 9 to 14 inches are expected over western
  Luce County west of Newberry... while snowfall of 6 to 9 inches is
  expected for eastern Luce County.

• North to northwest wind gusting to more than 30 mph late tonight
  and Saturday... especially along Lake Superior... will create
  blowing snow... sharply reduced visibilities at times... and wind
  chills below zero.

Impacts...

• roadways will likely become hazardous and travel may become
  difficult from snow and blowing snow... especially closer to
  Lake Superior where the wind is the strongest.

• The harsh wind chills will create dangerous conditions for
  persons staying outdoors for an extended period of time.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

• a lake effect snow warning means significant amounts of lake
  effect snow are forecast that will make travel very hazardous
  or impossible.

• Prepare... plan... and stay informed. Visit www.Weather.Gov/MQT

---

Lake Effect Snow Warning
Statement as of 12:48 PM EST on November 22, 2013

... Lake effect snow warning remains in effect from midnight
tonight to noon EST Sunday...

Hazardous weather...

• heavy lake effect snow will start late this evening and continue
  through Sunday morning. The heaviest snowfall rates will occur
  across western Alger County late tonight through Saturday... and
  across eastern Alger and northern Schoolcraft counties Saturday
  morning through late Saturday night.

• Snow accumulations of 10 to 15 inches are expected.

• North to northwest wind gusting to more than 35 mph late tonight
  and Saturday... especially along Lake Superior... will create
  blowing snow... sharply reduced visibilities at times... and wind
  chills below zero.

Impacts...

• roadways will likely become hazardous and travel may become
  difficult from snow and blowing snow... especially closer to
  Lake Superior where the wind is the strongest.

• The harsh wind chills will create dangerous conditions for
  persons staying outdoors for an extended period of time.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

• a lake effect snow warning means significant amounts of lake
  effect snow are forecast that will make travel very hazardous
  or impossible.

• Prepare... plan... and stay informed. Visit www.Weather.Gov/MQT

Sat morn, Nov 23 AFD

fxus61 kcle 231451
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
951 am est sat nov 23 2013

synopsis...
an arctic cold front will push south across the area today. strong
high pressure will build east across the ohio valley late sunday
and then move east by tuesday as another cold front moves across
the region.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
so far it has been a fairly quiet morning weather wise. do not see
the need for any major changes to the forecast for the morning
update. currently there are mostly clear skies over northwest
ohio and mostly cloudy skies over northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. clouds will fill in across the entire area over the
next several hours as the cold front makes its way southeastward.
original discussion...the second cold front with the arctic
airmass will move across the area today...especially this
afternoon. some snow showers will occur with the front...the only
place that could have some accumulations would be ne oh and nw pa
and that would be mainly around an inch. some inland locations
over nw pa could have up to two inches of snow. the warning starts
at noon which may be ok especially over inland pa as the front
moves through. temperatures may warm a few degrees today and then
cool a few degrees after the frontal passage.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through tuesday night/...
an upper trof will be moving east of the area tonight. plenty of
cold air will be flowing in. by late tonight the lake and 850 mb
temperature difference will be around 25c and the lake and 500 mb
temperature difference will be around 47c (40c difference is
unstable). these values are very unstable. moisture is ok especially
over ashtabula county and nw pa.
northwest flows are usually not conducive to heavy snow unless
you get a fetch from another lake like lake huron or lakes
superior and michigan. nw pa and ashtabula county will get a band
off of lake huron. if you are not in the band your snowfall amounts
may not be heavy. added blowing snow because of the gusty winds
and thunder because of the instability.
some bands of lake effect may occur with a connection from lake
superior. tried to bump up the amounts in the areas that may get
those bands which would be cleveland southeast and another band
could be farther west. still some uncertainty with that. the
snowfall amounts are not expected to be high enough for an
advisory but this will have to be watched.
cancelled the lake effect snow watch for lake and geauga counties...they
will get some lake effect snow but the amounts are not expected to
be high enough for a warning. they also don't seem high enough for
an advisory at this time because they should not get a band of
lake effect snow off of huron. this will be monitored by the next shifts.
with ridging and drier air working in for sunday this will
decrease the snow showers especially over ne oh and eventually
over nw pa.
a break for much of monday and then a chance of snow showers again
monday night into tuesday night as another cold front moves through.
used a blend of guidance for the temperatures...they are tough
depending on the sky cover...winds etc.
&&

long term /wednesday through friday/...
very few changes to the long term. models continue to move front
across eastern lakes on wednesday. for now will continue with
chance pops in the east for wednesday and wednesday night as models
continue to show very dry airmass. that said with 850 mb temps of
minus 12c lowered temps a couple of degrees. both the gfs and ecmwf
in reasonable agreement moving ridge of high pressure across great
lakes on thursday. models diverge significantly on friday. gfs
continues to move a low pressure system across the northern lakes on
friday. the ecmwf on the other hand tracks the low across western
ny state. since low confidence on track of the low will go with
continuity for now and keep fridays forecast dry.
&&

aviation /14z saturday through wednesday/...
cold front nw of the thumb of michigan will move across the area
late morning into early afternoon. will see some light snow with
the front...with possibly up to an inch of snow by this evening.
behind the front winds will shift to the nw with gusts up near 30
knots.
lake effect snow will develop overnight as the 850mb temps dip to
minus 18c. lake effect snow warning remains in effect for nw pa
and ashtabula county in ohio.
outlook...non vfr mainly over ne oh and nw pa tonight through
sunday because of lake effect. more widespread synoptic snow expected
late monday night into tuesday and continuing across ne oh/nw pa
on wednesday in lake effect shsn.
&&

marine...
extended small craft advisory into tuesday. strong nw flow will set
up behind the front with winds up to 30 knots possible. nw flow
with winds 15 to 25 knots will continue into sunday evening. winds
will slacken sunday night for a few hours...but decided not to end
small craft as sw flow will increase to 15 to 25 knots monday
morning ahead of next front. next cold front will push across the
lake on tuesday causing the flow to return to the nw. strong north
to nw flow will then continue through wednesday.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...lake effect snow warning until midnight est sunday night for
ohz014-089.
pa...lake effect snow warning until midnight est sunday night for
paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am est tuesday for lez142>149.
&&
$$
synopsis...kieltyka
near term...kieltyka/schepel
short term...kieltyka
long term...djb
aviation...djb
marine...djb

#weather - #lakeerie