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Math trumps punditry in predicting 2012 presidential outcome

(My Nov 7, 2012 ToledoTalk.com post )

Wikipedia: Nate Silver - Statistician

Website: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/ (launched in March 2014)

In the 2008 presidential election, Nate's math model correctly predicted the winner in 49 of 50 states.

In the 2010 presidential election, Nate's math model correctly predicted the winner in 34 of 36 U.S. Senate seats. And his model predicted the Republicans would have a net gain of 54 seats in the U.S. House when the actual net gain was 63 seats.

For the 2012 presidential election, Nate may have been the only person who thought this election would be no contest, and it would be an easy win for Obama. Nate's final forecast showed Obama having a 91 percent chance of winning with Obama winning 313 electoral votes and Romney winning 225. Nate's prediction on the total popular vote showed Obama with 50.8 percent and Romney with 48.3 percent.

Right now, the final totals for the 2012 presidential election show:

  • Obama - 303 electoral votes - 50.4 percent of popular vote
  • Romney - 206 electoral votes - 48.09 percent of popular vote

Florida is still counting votes, so its 29 electoral votes have not been allocated, although the count is favoring Obama.

If Obama wins Flordia, then Nate's model will have correctly predicted the outcome in all 50 states.

Stories:

Nov 6, 2012

Nov 7, 2012

#politics - #math - #media - #blog_jr

By JR - 358 words
created: - updated:
source - versions

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