• 2nd comment

Halloween trick-or-treat 2014

my oct 29, 2014 comment in this thread

http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/184881/29Oct2014/Friday_-_Halloween_-_Rain_and_Snow

Last year's thread about the rescheduling of trick-or-treat.

2013

Here was the forecast for the postponed Halloween day, issued on Oct 31, 2013:

Showers. High near 67. Breezy, with a south wind 13 to 18 mph increasing to 19 to 24 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

The 7:00 p.m., Oct 31, 2013 Toledo area airport weather conditions :

Express: Overcast, 60 F, wind S 14 mph - Gust 26 mph
Executive : Light Rain Fog/Mist, 60 F, wind S 18 mph - Gust 30 mph
Suburban: Overcast, 61 F, wind S 17 mph - Gust 25 mph

Earlier in the day on Oct 31, 2013, northwest Ohio was under a slight risk for severe weather for later in the evening.

Last year, some area communities decided on Oct 30 to postpone trick-or-treat. Toledo made the decision around mid-day on Oct 31. Toledo and most of the surrounding towns held trick-or-treat on Sun, Nov 3.

Toledo Express Airport weather for Sun, Nov 3, 2013:

Hi temp: 48 degrees at approx 3:00 p.m.
6:00 p.m. weather: clear, 40 degrees, East wind at 8 mph
7:00 p.m.: clear, 37 degrees, East wind at 5 mph
8:00 p.m.: clear, 37 degrees, East wind at 6 mph

2014

Forecast for Fri, Oct 31, 2014:

Friday: Showers likely, mainly after 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 46. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Showers likely before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Naturally, the low temp around 29 degrees will occur on Saturday morning. It does appear that temps will be in the 30s during trick-or-treat time on Friday evening with increasing wind speeds and a chance for rain.

2nd comment

According to the National Weather Service, it appears that our weather will deteriorate late Friday night or early Saturday. We might receive our first measurable snowfall of the season by sunrise Saturday, although it's still uncertain as to how warm or cold it will be. If it snows, it might be a dusting that only covers the grassy areas, leaving roadways wet.

http://forecast.io/lines - Toledo area temps on Friday evening are forecast to range between 42 and 46 degrees at 6:00 p.m. and range between 37 and 42 degrees at 9:00 p.m.

The forecast models at the above link predict Toledo's temps to range between 34 and 40 degrees by sunrise Saturday. The NWS predicts colder temps.

But right now, all models agree that the low temp on Sunday morning will be in the mid 20s, our coldest morning of the season.

Toledo forecast, issued by the NWS at 6:14 p.m. on Wed, Oct 29, 2014:

Friday: Showers, mainly after 7am. High near 46. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Rain, possibly mixed with snow showers before 1am, then a chance of snow showers. Low around 31. Blustery, with a north wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Excerpts from the area forecast discussion, issued at 6:17 p.m. on Wed, Oct 29, 2014:

the big question is the precipitation type for friday night and saturday and how much qpf will fall.

the models are flip flopping every model run. the gfs/sref is the warmest and says mainly rain while the ecmwf/nam is the coolest. the canadian model is in between on how quickly it cools to get to snow. used a compromise until it is clear which model is correct.

as the upper low moves from michigan to the carolinas warmer air will try to move in from the east especially for ne oh and nw pa.

went with a mix early friday night over nw oh and then all snow late.

will have to monitor the snowfall amounts as we get closer to the event.

http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php

QPF - Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. A spatial and temporal precipitation forecast that will predict the potential amount of future precipitation for a specified region, or area.

(i need the urban dictionary definition)

Forecast for the rest of the weekend:

Saturday: A chance of snow showers before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 45.

#toledo - #weather - #event