• NWS Stmnt Mon, Mar 4 3:03am
• Forecast Mon, Mar 4 6:35am
• NWS frcst disc Mon, Mar 4 6:48am
• Links

Possible March 5-6, 2013 Snowstorm

As of Monday morning, March 4, most of the snow (6 to 9 inches) is expected to fall south of Wood County. The northern edge of the Winter Storm Watch box ends with the Ohio counties along the Michigan border. Monroe County is not under any type of weather watch or advisory.

Even if Toledo gets some snow, it will be the heavy, wet snow, since temps are expected to be around 32 degrees. And it will warm into the mid to upper 30s on Wednesday and Thursday and into the 40s for the weekend, so it will be sloppy and messy if we get snow.

Last week was horrible with the wet snow, rain, slush, puddles, and overall mess. If it's going to be this "warm," I prefer we get rain or no snow/slop.

NWS Stmnt Mon, Mar 4 3:03am

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
303 am est mon mar 4 2013

.an area of low pressure over the northern plains tonight will
move southeast across ohio late tuesday and tuesday night. snow
associated with this storm will spread across the area tuesday
afternoon. periods of moderate to heavy snow will be possible
tuesday evening and night. this may be the largest snowfall so far
this winter for much of the watch area.

ohz003-006>008-017>019-027>031-036>038-047-041615-
/o.new.kcle.ws.a.0002.130305t1800z-130306t1700z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-crawford-
richland-ashland-wayne-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...upper sandusky...carey...
bucyrus...mansfield...ashland...wooster...marion...mount gilead...
millersburg...mount vernon
303 am est mon mar 4 2013

...winter storm watch in effect from tuesday afternoon through
wednesday morning...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter
storm watch...which is in effect from tuesday afternoon through
wednesday morning.

• accumulations... 6 to 9 inches. the greatest amounts are expected
  south of a line from bowling green to wooster. snowfall totals
  will drop off quickly further north.

• timing...snow will overspread the watch area tuesday afternoon
  with the heaviest snow expected tuesday evening. the snow will
  taper off from west to east on wednesday.

• winds...northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

• impacts...an accumulation of snow could make for difficult
  travel. some blowing and drifting is likely as well.

• temperatures...in the lower 30s.

• visibilities...less than one half mile at times.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter storm watch means that heavy snow is possible. if you
are within the watch area...remain alert to rapidly changing
weather conditions. stay tuned to the national weather service or
the local news media for the latest updates and possible
warnings.

Forecast Mon, Mar 4 6:35am

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. West winds around 5 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. East winds around 5 mph.

Tuesday: Cloudy...snow...mainly in the afternoon. Snow accumulation around an inch. Highs in the lower 30s. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Tuesday Night: Snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds around 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Wednesday: Snow likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s.

Friday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 40s.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 40s.

NWS frcst disc Mon, Mar 4 6:48am

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
648 am est mon mar 4 2013

.short term /6 pm this evening through thursday night/...
have already issued a watch from the sw end of the area. this may
be a little overdone and expecting marginal warning criteria at
best. went with the watch since for most of the watch area this
could be the biggest event of the season. expect greatest accums
from fdy to mfd and south. have stretched the watch north into the
tol area for coordination purposes. there should be a sharp drop
off on snowfall totals on the northern end. will probably end up
with a warning for a handful of counties in the south with an
advisory further n. like the new 00z ecmwf and have followed it.
the nam supports this model so confidence is fairly high. the
models having been slowly trending further south with this storm
and if this trend continues may end up needing only advisories.
the snow should start tomorrow afternoon as it will take some time
to overcome the dry ne to e flow at the surface. the snow should
peak in intensity during the evening hours and then quickly taper
off from west to east early wednesday. if the models are correct
much of nw pa could end up dry. not comfortable cutting the
bologna that close so will maintain at least chance wording. by
wednesday dry weather should prevail with high pressure building
over the area thursday and thursday night as well. so in
summary... expecting a sharp snowfall gradient with maybe a couple
inches east of kcle to around 6 inches south of u.s 30.

have used a blend of guidance temps.

.long term /friday through sunday/...
strong high pressure will be over the region on friday beneath a
ridge building aloft. after a cool start to the day...temperatures
will recover to near normal values in the low 40s with partly to
mostly sunny skies. the exception to this will be ne oh/nw pa where
northerly flow off the lake will limit highs to the upper 30s for
another day. warming trend will continue on saturday as winds shift
around to the south and warm advection increases.

model differences increase over the weekend with the evolution of
the closed upper low over the western states. the ecmwf and gem hold
onto a split upper level pattern longer with a weak cold front
brushing the eastern great lakes late saturday while the upper low
remains near the 4 corners region. the gfs is much faster to eject
energy out of the upper low and try to phase with the northern
stream. preference lies with the split flow which will result in
warming through the weekend with the next good chance of
precipitation holding off until early next week.

Links

NWS products for the Toledo area:

• Lucas County Zone Forecast and Toledo Express Airport conditions
• Hazardous Weather Outlook
• Area Forecast Discussion

Map of watches, warnings, and advisories:

Click for county details

#weather
#winter
#storm