• Nov 14 comments
• Nov 17-18 forecast issued on Nov 15
• SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook
• Fri, Nov 15 Hzrd Outlk
• Fri night info, Nov 15
• Sat, Nov 16
• Sat, Nov 16 HWO
• Sat, Nov 16 AFD
• Sat, Nov 16 SPC Day 2 CO
• Nov 16 JustaSooner's analysis

Severe weather threat for Sun, Nov 17, 2013

8:05 p.m. - Sat, Nov 16, 2013 summary

Highest tornado threat timeline tomorrow...

12PM - SW MI, Much of Indiana, S Illinois
3PM - SC MI, NW OH, Indiana, S IL, W KY, W TN
6PM - W OH (better dynamics may be near the TOL area where Ohio is concerned), S IN, Ohio River Valley in KY

Tornado threat should be down quit a bit after 7-8pm tomorrow.

Precip timing for NW OH...

4AM - Scattered showers NW OH
7AM - Light to moderate rain N OH
10AM - Isolated sprinkles otherwise dry
1PM - Mostly dry, maybe and isolated shower developing.
4PM - Severe Storms, heavy rain
7PM - Severe Storms, heavy rain
10PM - Storms, moderate rain ending
1AM - Dry

a strong wind field will be in place aloft on sunday but stable conditions in the low levels will limit higher gusts from mixing down for most of the day...with gusts near 40 mph starting to develop in primarily nw ohio after 2 pm.

skies are expected to be mostly cloudy on sunday but some breaks are possible ahead of the front. any peaks of sun could result in pockets of higher temperatures...a jump in instability...and better mixing. dewpoints will surge up immediately ahead of the cold front with a narrow corridor approaching 60 degrees.

agree with spc that the better placement for supercells will be from nrn indiana into se michigan ahead of the cold front with the convection transitioning to more of a linear mode as it pushes east across ohio during the evening. with that in mind...still expecting the primary severe weather threat to be strong damaging winds with the potential for gusts of 70-80 mph.

it is unclear if we will see much convection develop out
ahead of the front and that will be something to watch on sunday.
any discrete cells could be supercellular in nature and pose a
threat of tornadoes. isolated tornadoes are also possible with
breaks in the line along the cold front.
the threat of the severe weather will increase between 5-8 pm in nw

marine...gale warning from 6 pm sunday to 4 pm est monday for le

---

Some info comes from Nov 14, 2013 12:43:18 pm Toledo Talk thread created by JustaSooner titled Severe Weather - Nov 17, 2013

Nov 14 comments

Forecast for Nov 17, 2013

"Things to keep in mind with these systems. They don't require the same level of heating and instability as Spring/Summer events require because storms this time of the year tend to have better upper air dynamics."

On Nov 10, 2002, Toledo Express Airport recorded a high temperature of 66 degrees.

The current Toledo forecast calls for high temps on Sun, Nov 17, 2013 to be in the low to mid 60s.

While this Sunday may feel relatively nice, the lack of hot weather may be deceiving if all of the other dynamics exist for severe weather. It may not "feel" like a thunderstorm day.

I assume that in 2013, more people have the ability to be alerted to bad weather than in 2002. The Van Wert tornado destroyed a movie theater that was mostly evacuated shortly before the tornado hit.

Tablets, cell phones, apps, social media. Should be no excuse to be somewhat aware today. And being aware does not mean being hysterical. No need to build bunkers nor cancel anything.

posted by jr on Nov 14, 2013 at 03:51:56 pm

Nov 17-18 forecast issued on Nov 15

A slight diff in the forecasts between Sun and Mon:

Sunday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 68. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday: A chance of rain showers before 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Since temps are expected to fall all day Monday, temps will probably be in the 30s on Monday afternoon, which will be about 30 degrees cooler than 24 hours earlier.

Tuesday's high temp is forecast to be in the mid 30s.

Toledo's record high temp for Nov 17 is 71 degrees set in 1931.

Current forecast discussion from the Cleveland NWS:

a big change is coming through this period as a november gale develops across the great lakes region over the weekend.
potential still exists at this time that we will likely see at least wind advisories posted for sunday into monday. potential does exist that we will need to go higher with high wind warnings.

cold front sweeps through the area sunday night and the overnight lows could possibly be the high for the day on monday. we should see nearly steady or falling temperatures during the day monday and into monday night.

The SPC's day 3 (Sunday) convective outlook includes all of Ohio and southeast Michigan in the Slight risk for severe thunderstorms.

posted by jr on Nov 15, 2013 at 06:02:35 am

SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook

Issued on Fri, Nov 15, 2013 for Sun, Nov 17.

spc ac 150830

day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 am cst fri nov 15 2013

valid 171200z - 181200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over a portion of the tn and oh
valleys and great lakes areas...

...synopsis...

a shortwave trough with attendant strong upper jet embedded within
base of the synoptic trough will eject negatively tilted through the
mid ms and oh valleys sunday...reaching a portion of the nern u.s.
toward the end of the period. this feature will induce a sfc cyclone
that is forecast to undergo significant deepening as it moves newd
from the upper ms valley into the great lakes sunday afternoon. cold
front trailing from the low will sweep through the mid ms...oh and
tn valleys...while a warm front lifts nwd through the oh valley and
great lakes.

...oh and tn valley regions...

a strong 50+ kt swly llj will advect partially modified gulf air
with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s into the oh valley and
great lakes region with mid 60s likely farther south across the tn
valley area. the moisture return will be accompanied by widespread
clouds that will limit diabatic heating of the boundary layer in
much of pre-frontal warm sector. moreover...areas of showers and a
few thunderstorms will probably be ongoing over a portion of the oh
valley warm sector. thus the primary destabilization mechanism will
probably be moisture advection...but sfc based instability will
likely remain somewhat marginal /mlcape aob 500 j/kg/...especially
with nwd and ewd extent into the oh valley and great lakes.

nevertheless...the deepening cyclone will be accompanied by an
increase in frontogenetic forcing along the cold front sweeping ewd
through the oh valley. storms may increase during the day along
pre-frontal warm conveyor belt beneath diffluent upper jet exit
region. other storms will initiate along strengthening cold front.
potential will exist for pre-frontal storms to develop supercell
structures given strength of vertical shear and size of hodographs
along llj...but extent of any tornado threat will depend on degree
of boundary layer destabilization. otherwise...storms will likely
evolve into lines along the cold front with a threat for widespread
damaging wind as the activity develops ewd through the oh and tn
valley regions.

...ny and pa...
storms will eventually outpace the moist axis sunday night and
encounter much weaker instability as they approach the nern states.
however...at least a modest threat for isolated damaging wind with
remaining low topped convection cannot be ruled out late this
period.

..dial.. 11/15/2013

click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product

note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0830z

Fri, Nov 15 Hzrd Outlk

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
503 pm est fri nov 15 2013

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-162215-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
503 pm est fri nov 15 2013

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...tonight.

hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.days two through seven...saturday through thursday.

there is a slight risk of severe weather late sunday afternoon and
sunday evening with the passage of a strong cold front. the primary
threat will be strong thunderstorm winds but there will be a
chance of tornadoes.

there is a chance that winds will be fairly gusty ahead of the
front on sunday but the strongest winds are expected behind the
cold front sunday night. winds may gust to 50 mph and a wind
advisory may be needed. strong winds may continue along the
lakeshore into monday.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed from late sunday afternoon
through late sunday evening.

$$

Fri night info, Nov 15

"what's going to happen and when."

Tune in on Sunday morning. At that time, the NWS should have a pretty good idea on the who, what, when, and where.

But here's a little taste from the most recent hazardous outlook message issued by the Cleveland NWS at 5:03 p.m. on Fri, Nov 15, 2013:

there is a slight risk of severe weather late sunday afternoon and sunday evening with the passage of a strong cold front. the primary threat will be strong thunderstorm winds but there will be a chance of tornadoes.

there is a chance that winds will be fairly gusty ahead of the front on sunday but the strongest winds are expected behind the cold front sunday night. winds may gust to 50 mph and a wind advisory may be needed. strong winds may continue along the lakeshore into monday.

And for the SKYWARN people:

spotter activation may be needed from late sunday afternoon through late sunday evening.

My big concern is that the NFL broadcasts could be interrupted by the local TV weather people.

From the forecast discussion issued by the Cleveland NWS at 9:40 p.m. on Fri, Nov 15, 2013:

interesting weather setting up during this time frame as the warm sector approaches the area with a strong wind field in place. spc has the entire area in a slight risk for severe storms which will be conditional on the degree of heating and instability that can be materialized.

we could see a break in the showers during the daytime hours [Sunday] with showers and thunderstorms developing as the cold front approaches late in the day.

southerly winds will range from 20-30 mph with a few gusts to 40 mph possible. expecting skies to stay mostly cloudy but if we do end up with some breaks in the clouds then winds could be stronger.

temperatures on sunday will be critical to the severe weather potential and effected by coverage of showers.

I assume that means that the NWS won't know for certain until Sunday. If the region has more sunshine than expected, then the severe potential increases. But if Sunday is cloudy and a bit rainy ahead of the front, then I'm guessing that the severe threat decreases. I'll defer to JustaSooner.

A bit more from the forecast discussion:

character of the severe weather will depend on instability with line segments producing damaging winds the most likely scenario. however...there will also be a threat for mini-supercells and tornadoes given the tremendous shear.

winds will remain gusty sunday night behind the front and a wind advisory may be needed with gusts of 40-50 mph possible.

temperatures will drop back into the mid 40s by monday morning with falling temperatures continuing monday afternoon. winds will remain gusty on monday...especially near the lakeshore.

posted by jr on Nov 15, 2013 at 10:33:14 pm

Sat, Nov 16

It's a bit unusual for our area to be under a Moderate Risk for severe weather at any time of the year, especially on the Day 2 Outlook.

The latest hazardous weather outlook:

a squall line is expected to develop and move across the
local area late sunday and sunday evening. very strong winds are
expected just off the surface. heavy rain from the squall line
could bring these strong winds down to the surface causing
widespread damage. this is very dangerous situation.

in addition...strong and gusty winds are expected behind the cold
front responsible for the squall line. wind advisories may be
needed sunday night into monday.

From the most recent area forecast discussion:

it's going to be a busy period with a lot of weather.

we are basically expecting a 6 hour or so period of showers
late tonight and sunday morning probably followed by a period of
dry weather and then another round of showers and storms late
sunday and sunday evening.

this second round of precip is potentially very dangerous

the cold front associated with the low will sweep east across the area sunday night.

a pre frontal squall line moving at considerable speed is expected.

widespread wind damage appears to be a possibility and the severe
weather outlook has been upgraded to moderate which seem reasonable.

From the Storm Prediction Center

potential exists for a widespread damaging wind event and a few
tornadoes sunday afternoon and night...especially in and near the
moderate risk area across parts of the oh valley and great lakes.

however...degree of the tornado threat
/should these storms develop/ will depend on magnitude of
destabilization within the warm sector boundary layer.

otherwise...storms should initiate along strengthening cold front
from the great lakes swwd into the mid ms and tn valleys and
subsequently develop ewd. given strength of vertical shear...these
storms will likely evolve into an organized linear mcs with lewp and
bow echo structures capable of producing widespread damaging wind.
isolated tornadoes associated with embedded meso-vortices also will
be possible with the squall line.

If a line of storms does form, it will move into the area quickly with not a lot of advance warning, and any storm could be brief but intense.

Regardless, it will be windy on Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday morning.

Lake Erie forecast:

sunday night... southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and
increasing to gales to 40 knots overnight. rain showers with a
chance of thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of rain
showers overnight. strong wind gusts possible in thunderstorms.
waves 3 to 5 feet building to 10 to 14 feet.

posted by jr on Nov 16, 2013 at 10:18:26 am

---

From the latest SPC statement, it appears that the highest tornado risk will be west of the Toledo area, but our area could still receive strong thunderstorm winds.

... indicate development of
supercells along/ahead of the cold front across parts of il/indiana
and srn lower mi along/ahead of the strongest ewd surge of the cold
front. these will have a window of opportunity from mid-late
afternoon into the early evening to produce swaths of damaging wind
gusts...severe hail and possibly several tornadoes /some strong/.
with time...convection is expected to develop into bowing linear
structures and spread rapidly ewd/newd across the lower great
lakes/upper oh valley with the primary severe threat transitioning
to potentially widespread damaging wind gusts. the fast-moving
lines will move progressively into lesser instability...however
vertical transfer of strong horizontal momentum to the surface may
maintain a threat for wind damage through much of the overnight
hours.

posted by jr on Nov 16, 2013 at 01:38:27 pm

Sat, Nov 16 HWO

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
417 pm est sat nov 16 2013

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-172130-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
417 pm est sat nov 16 2013

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...tonight.

hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.days two through seven...sunday through friday.

the storm prediction center has indicated that there is a
moderate risk for severe thunderstorms on sunday afternoon and
evening. a squall line is expected to develop and move across the
local area late sunday and sunday evening. very strong winds are
expected just off the surface. heavy rain from the squall line
could bring these strong winds down to the surface causing
widespread damage. this is a very dangerous situation. isolated
tornadoes will also be possible.

in addition...strong and gusty winds are expected behind the cold
front overnight. wind advisories may be needed sunday
night...possibly continuing along the eastern lakeshore into
monday.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed from late sunday afternoon
through late sunday evening.

Sat, Nov 16 AFD

fxus61 kcle 162349
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
649 pm est sat nov 16 2013

synopsis...
low pressure will rapidly deepen as it tracks from the plains to the
the upper great lakes on sunday. a very strong cold front extending
south from the low will sweep across the local area late sunday and
sunday evening. high pressure will slowly build over the region from
the southwest the first half of the work week.
&&

near term /until 6 am sunday morning/...
showers are on schedule moving east and of course worried about
some showers developing in the warm advection. made some minor
changes to the pops for this evening over eastern ohio.
temperatures may not drop that much.
previous discussion...
the upper level trough will deepen over the plains tonight with
one area of low pressure tracking northeast towards lake superior
and the other towards iowa. meanwhile a 145 knot upper level jet
and accompanying 50 knot llj near 850mb will slide northeast up
the ohio valley with increasing low level moisture advection.
showers will overspread the area from west to east...mainly after
midnight...with good low level moisture convergence and large
scale ascent provided by the left exit region of the upper level
jet. raised pops to near 100 percent for areas west of
cleveland...tapering down to 70 percent towards erie pa. have also
included a chance of thunderstorms into the forecast as some
degree of elevated instability develops. a few of the
thunderstorms in northwest ohio could be fairly robust with strong
shear in the column but expecting low levels to be too stable to
bring the strong winds down to the ground.
there will be some breaks in the clouds late this afternoon and
evening before the moisture ramps up with overcast skies later
tonight. expect to reach the low temperature for tonight this
evening with both temperatures and dewpoints rising towards dawn.
low will only drop to the low 50s this evening.
&&

short term /6 am sunday morning through tuesday night/...
there will be an enhanced threat of severe weather on sunday.
showers with a chance of thunderstorms will linger into sunday
morning across the eastern counties...shifting southeast with time
as the mid-level dry slot overspreads northern ohio and lake erie. most
areas will see a break in the precipitation during the late
morning/afternoon before chances of showers and thunderstorms
increase later in the day ahead of the cold front.
the storm prediction center has placed most of the forecast area in
a moderate risk for severe weather with the potential for
significant severe weather outbreak. this occurs as low pressure
moving out of the plains undergoes rapid deepening while tracking
from near chicago to north of lake huron...pulling a cold front east
across the area during the late afternoon/evening hours. a strong
wind field will be in place aloft on sunday but stable conditions in
the low levels will limit higher gusts from mixing down for most of
the day...with gusts near 40 mph starting to develop in primarily nw
ohio after 2 pm. skies are expected to be mostly cloudy on sunday
but some breaks are possible ahead of the front. any peaks of sun
could result in pockets of higher temperatures...a jump in
instability...and better mixing. dewpoints will surge up
immediately ahead of the cold front with a narrow corridor
approaching 60 degrees.
there have been some interesting trends observed in the models over
the last 48 hours. the upper level trough does not deepen as much to
our west and the stronger dynamics associated with the trough
becoming negatively tilted may actually be focused slightly
further north from southern michigan into ontario. agree with spc
that the better placement for supercells will be from nrn indiana
into se michigan ahead of the cold front with the convection
transitioning to more of a linear mode as it pushes east across
ohio during the evening. with that in mind...still expecting the
primary severe weather threat to be strong damaging winds with the
potential for gusts of 70-80 mph with a 110 knot jet streak at
500mb. it is unclear if we will see much convection develop out
ahead of the front and that will be something to watch on sunday.
any discrete cells could be supercellular in nature and pose a
threat of tornadoes. isolated tornadoes are also possible with
breaks in the line along the cold front.
the threat of the severe weather will increase between 5-8 pm in nw
ohio...7-10 pm towards cleveland and 9-midnight in erie.
the period of showers will not last long with the frontal passage as
the airmass dries out quickly with strong subsidence. westerly winds
will gust to 40-50 mph overnight and a wind advisory may be
needed...possibly continuing along the east lakeshore on monday.
conditions will become more favorable for lake effect snow showers
as temperatures drop into the 30s on monday night. minor
accumulations will be possible in the snow belt but will end fairly
quickly on tuesday as high pressure expands over the ohio valley.
&&

long term /wednesday through saturday/...
high pressure will cross the lower great lakes tuesday into
wednesday with the return south flow developing by wednesday
although temperatures will likely stay shy of normal.
some question by thursday as too how far the next cold front will
advance. the ecmwf pushes the front well south of the area whereas
the other models hang the front in the vicinity of the forecast
area. the ecmwf is often too aggressive with the southern extent of
these types of fronts but with a large high pressure area over
eastern canada we will eventually see a wind shift and cooler air
will filter in. so...probably less chance of rain that the ecmwf
would lead to believe and not as cool...but a little cooler than the
gfs.
probably a better chance of rain by the end of the week with the
next surface wave but the models are poor and locating these frontal
waves as well. not much confidence in any aspect of the forecast
late in the week with a lot of compromise to temps and pops.
&&

aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
rain showers creeping into area from the west with warm front.
should reach the tol area toward midnight local and spread east
across the area overnight. doubts in my mind as to how widespread
ifr cigs will be overnight. expect a quarter inch of rain or so
from the rain showers and then a lull by mid morning across the
area. south to southwest winds will increase sunday with winds
gusts into the mid 30s possible by late afternoon.
outlook...non vfr conditions likely much of sunday. strong tsra
possible sunday evening with high winds. non-vfr conditions will
continue monday with a few shra. a few shsn monday night...mainly
across ne oh/nw pa. conditions improving to vfr from west to east
tuesday.
&&

marine...
will go ahead and post the gale warning. it will not officially
start until sunday evening but it will get the information out and
preclude the issuance of small craft advisories ahead of the
warning. the south wind will be strongest sunday in the nearshore
downslope areas from about fairport harbor east to buffalo and then
across the lake toward long point. the warm air and stable situation
will keep the wind somewhat in check elsewhere ion lake erie on
sunday but as the cold front approaches the mixing of the low level
jet will increase late in the day and especially sunday evening.
as the front passes and cold advection begins sunday night...the
gales will develop...lasting into monday before diminishing monday
evening. there is a small chance for a brief period of storm force
winds early monday morning but if it would happen it would be brief
and localized and it is more likely the wind will peak in the 40
knot range. low water advisories may be needed on the western basin
monday morning.
high pressure will build across the lower great lakes by mid week.
the next cold front is due thursday. the strength of the front is in
question so will not commit to any moderate or strong winds yet
although the ecmwf has been advertising a good gradient.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...gale warning from 6 pm sunday to 4 pm est monday for lez061-
142>149-162>169.
&&
$$
synopsis...kec
near term...kec/kieltyka
short term...kec
long term...kosarik
aviation...djb
marine...kosarik

Sat, Nov 16 SPC Day 2 CO

day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1132 am cst sat nov 16 2013

valid 171200z - 181200z

...there is a mdt risk of svr tstms over parts of ern il...extreme
sern wi...srn lower mi...oh...indiana...and nrn ky...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from the mid-south/tn valley
into the great lakes region...

...potential exists for a widespread damaging wind event and several
tornadoes /some possibly strong/ sunday afternoon and night across
parts of the oh valley and great lakes...

...synopsis...
longwave trough currently over the wrn us is forecast to intensify
through sunday as a very strong mid-level jet streak digs sewd
across the great basin and central rockies before progressing ewd
across the central plains/mid ms valley during the afternoon. the
upper trough is forecast to become negatively-tilted as it lifts
newd across the great lakes region during the second half of the
period.

at the surface...an intense deepening low is forecast to move from
ia toward ern lake superior during the day and progress into ern
ontario and wrn quebec at night. a strong cold front will arc swd
from the low with the nrn part of the front accelerating across the
great lakes region. the srn part of the front is expected to lag
swwd...reaching an ern lower mi/srn indiana/central ar/nrn tx line
by 18/00z...and ern ny/nrn va/wrn nc/nrn ga and lower ms valley by
the end of the period.

...oh valley into the srn great lakes...
overnight storms may be continuing from parts of the oh valley swwd
across the mid-south/tn valley in association with a weak shortwave
trough and low level warm advection. this activity may contain a
more limited severe threat for hail and strong/severe wind gusts as
it shifts ewd/newd with time. although dynamic forcing for large
scale ascent is expected to remain primarily north of this
area...sufficient deep layer shear will support organized storm
structures including potential for isolated supercells.

the primary severe threat is expected to develop during the late
morning into early/mid afternoon from ern ia into parts of
nrn/central il...then spread ewd through the overnight hours across
the great lakes and oh valley. strong sswly low level winds will
continue to advect moisture nwd toward the deepening surface low
with 60-65f dew points reaching as far north as nrn parts of il and
indiana. a plume of steeper mid level lapse rates is forecast to
extend ewd from the central plains toward the srn great lakes and
will contribute to increased instability with cape of 1000-1500 j/kg
forecast across parts of il and indiana. strong/severe storms may
develop as early as mid/late morning over parts of ern ia near the
surface low and advancing cold front...then increase in coverage
into nrn/central il during the afternoon as strong dynamic forcing
within the left exit region of the mid/upper level jet streak
overspreads the low level moisture/instability axis.

forecast soundings indicate development of clockwise turning
low-level hodograph structures in association with strong veering
wind profiles. several 12z convection-allowing models /especially
the 4 km wrf-nssl and 1.3 km nam fire nest/ indicate development of
supercells along/ahead of the cold front across parts of il/indiana
and srn lower mi along/ahead of the strongest ewd surge of the cold
front. these will have a window of opportunity from mid-late
afternoon into the early evening to produce swaths of damaging wind
gusts...severe hail and possibly several tornadoes /some strong/.
with time...convection is expected to develop into bowing linear
structures and spread rapidly ewd/newd across the lower great
lakes/upper oh valley with the primary severe threat transitioning
to potentially widespread damaging wind gusts. the fast-moving
lines will move progressively into lesser instability...however
vertical transfer of strong horizontal momentum to the surface may
maintain a threat for wind damage through much of the overnight
hours.

..weiss.. 11/16/2013

click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product

note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0700z
page created: Nov 16, 2013 - 7:30 p.m. EST

Nov 16 JustaSooner's analysis

The two lines of storms is the concerning part. Obviously exact cell placement has a margin of error, so this can't be used as an actual guide of who gets hit and who doesn't. However, seeing a line of broken supercells on the back edge with the front but also isolated supercells ahead of that main line makes it pretty concerning. Anything that can start isolated ahead of the main line is what I would be most concerned about.

You can't read into what they are saying as the highest tornado risk will be west of Toledo. The highest tornado risk is going to be with any storm that can remain isolated and doesn't get undercut by outflow.

Widespread damaging winds will kick in once we see things line out. Could still see a few embedded rotations/quick spin ups, but later into the evening things go the lower the tornado threat - as it looks now. Don't try to read into it right now on too micro of a level.

posted by JustaSooner on Nov 16, 2013 at 01:51:31 pm

---

Highest tornado threat timeline tomorrow...

12PM - SW MI, Much of Indiana, S Illinois
3PM - SC MI, NW OH, Indiana, S IL, W KY, W TN
6PM - W OH (better dynamics may be near the TOL area where Ohio is concerned), S IN, Ohio River Valley in KY

Tornado threat should be down quit a bit after 7-8pm tomorrow.

Precip timing for NW OH...

4AM - Scattered showers NW OH
7AM - Light to moderate rain N OH
10AM - Isolated sprinkles otherwise dry
1PM - Mostly dry, maybe and isolated shower developing.
4PM - Severe Storms, heavy rain
7PM - Severe Storms, heavy rain
10PM - Storms, moderate rain ending
1AM - Dry

posted by JustaSooner on Nov 16, 2013 at 06:51:08 pm

#weather - #toledo - #blog_jr