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Mon, Dec 9, 2013 winter storm forecast for Sat, Dec 14

#toledo #weather

Computer models predicting extended forecasts.

1:00 p.m., Dec 9, 2013 comment by JustaSooner at ToledoTalk.com:

Last couple of GFS runs hinting at a possible significant snow for you guys by the weekend. Forecast will likely change around a bit, but will throw this out there.

QPF - total liquid equivalent of precipitation

Timeline
By Midnight Saturday AM - Light snow dev, 0.05-0.1" QPF, < 1" Snow
Midnight Sat to 6AM Sat - Moderate snow, 0.25 to 0.35" QPF, 3-5" Snow
6AM to Noon Sat - Light/Mod Snow, 0.15 to 0.25" QPF, 2-3" snow
Noon to 6PM Sat - Light Snow, 0.10 to 0.15" QPF, 1-2" snow
6AM Sat to Midnight Sun - Light snow, 0.05 to 0.15" QPF, 1-2" snow
Midnight to 6AM Sun - System snow ending, < 0.05" QPF, < 1"
Remaining of the day - some snow showers from lake effect off of Lake Michigan possible.

I went with a basic 10:1 ratio for the snow amounts here, though forecast soundings indicate that the ratio could be closer to 15:1 at times, especially towards the end. This is all worst case scenario stuff as things evolve a lot being this far out. Air profile doesn't support sleet or freezing rain, so at least icing should be minimal. Snow range on this model run is about 7 to 14" across the Toledo metro area.

! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 09, 2013 at 01:01:55 pm # +


Mon morning, Dec 9 area forecast discussion by the Cleveland NWS:

long term /friday through sunday/ [dec 13-15] ...
more wintry weather expected during the long term period. will
start the period out dry friday but precip chances will increase
friday night into saturday. the new 00z models have differing
solutions but both give the area another round of snow. the ecmwf
solution which has been more consistent and is preferred today has
low pressure passing to the south with an inverted trough swinging
across the local area. this setup is favorable for accumulating snow
and if the 00z run is correct some areas may need headlines. the
gfs has a much more northern low but also gives several inches of
snow to the area. expect confidence to increase as the week
progresses and the models sort themselves out.
! posted by jr on Dec 09, 2013 at 01:45:26 pm # +


Mon evening, Dec 9 TT comment by JustaSooner

Toledo area specific timeline on the latest models.

12Z Euro Model
Friday through 10PM: Snow starting from the SW, no accum.
10PM to 1AM Sat: Light snow, 1-2"
1AM to 4AM: Light snow, 1-2"
4AM to 10AM: Light/Mdt snow, 1" north to 3" south
10AM to 4PM: Light snow, ~1"

Worst case: 4-8" snow

18Z GFS
Through 1AM Sat: Light snow starting, < 1"
1AM to 7AM: Mdt/Hvy snow, 3-5"
7AM to 1PM: Mdt snow, 2-3"
1PM to 7PM: Light/Mdt snow, 1-2"
7PM to 1AM Sun: Mdt snow, 2-3"
1AM to 7AM: Light snow, 1-2"
After 7AM: Scattered light snow/squalls from Lake Michigan

Worst case: 9-16"

So the main take away...

Models are being consistent now about bring in a snow storm up the Ohio River valley at the end of the week. It is likely that there will be an area of heavy storm. The exact path will vary and intensities will jump around a bit the next few days. The GFS is pretty intense right now on amounts and a lot of that is due to projected strong wrap around. It wouldn't be unrealistic based on the forecast surface winds to assume there will be some lake enhancement to the snow for the Toledo area - as rare as that usually is.

Late Saturday there is a chance some warmer air will get pulled up and this could induce a bit more sleet into the precip, which of course brings snow totals down.

Again, nothing locked in. I've seen GFS switch 48 hours out and have a completely different solution. However, right now ECMWF and GFS are in a pretty good agreement overall - so that deserves attention.

! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 09, 2013 at 06:08:06 pm # +


My Tue, morning TT comment regarding the morning's area forecast discussion issued by the Cle NWS:

Tue, Dec 10, 2013 - 6:39 a.m. NWS area forecast discussion

long term /saturday through monday/...
an interesting forecast shaping up.
the 00z models are in much better agreement than they were yesterday. the gfs has come around to the ecmwf solution of low pressure passing to the south. later shifts will have to monitor this but for now will go with all snow. there is a good possibility some headlines may be needed.
! posted by jr on Dec 10, 2013 at 09:09:14 am # +


Noon time, Tue, Dec 10 TT comment by JustaSooner

Quick run down of the latest models precip amounts...keep in mind these are going to keep fluctuating, so just expect that it is going to snow. :)

All amounts are snow using 10:1 ratio.

00Z Euro/ECMWF
Through 10AM Sat - Trace to 1" (east to west)
10AM Sat to 1AM Sun - Light Snow, by 1AM an add'l 2-3"

Totals down to 3-4".

12Z GFS
Through 1AM Sat - Trace to a half inch of snow.
1AM to 7AM - 1" to 2"
7AM to 1PM - 0.5 to 1"
1PM to 7PM - 1 to 2"
7PM to 1AM Sun - 1 to 2"
After 1AM - System snow ending, < 1"

Totals: 3 to 8 inches.

! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 10, 2013 at 12:09:51 pm # +


Noon time, Tue, Dec 10 info from http://forecast.io/lines

assuming 10:1 ratio of snow to liquid precip:

gfs totals:
0.636
equals 6.4 inches of total snowfall

ForecastIO totals:
0.442
equals 4.4 inches of total snowfall

fnmoc totals:
0.242
equals 2.4 inches of total snowfall

Seems most of the snow is forecast to fall between 7am Saturday and 2am Sunday. A snowy day and evening on Saturday. Good day to finish painting a room in our house.

It's possible that the heaviest snowfall may occur in the area defined by Findlay, Mansfield, Columbus, and Cincinnati.

liquid precip : in/hr

sat, dec 14, 2013

5am
gfs 0.013
Forecast 0.011
cmc: 0.010
fnmoc: 0.002

6am
gfs: 0.021
Forecast: 0.015
cmc: 0.011
fnmoc: 0.002

7am
gfs: 0.027
Forecast: 0.018
cmc: 0.012
fnmoc: 0.003

8am
gfs: 0.029
Forecast: 0.019
cmc: 0.012
fnmoc: 0.003

9am:
gfs: 0.029
Forecast: 0.019
cmc: 0.012
fnmoc: 0.002

10am:
gfs: 0.029
Forecat: 0.019
cmc: 0.011
fnmoc: 0.002

11am:
gfs: 0.029
Forecast: 0.019
cmc: 0.011
fnmoc: 0.002

12pm:
gfs: 0.028
Forecast: 0.019
cmc: 0.010
fnmoc: 0.002

1pm:
gfs: 0.028
Forecast: 0.018
cmc: 0.010
fnmoc: 0.002

2pm:
gfs: 0.028
Forecat: 0.018
cmc: 0.011
fnmoc: 0.004

3pm:
gfs: 0.027
Forecast: 0.019
cmc: 0.011
fnmoc: 0.006

4pm:
gfs: 0.027
Forecast: 0.019
cmc: 0.012
fnmoc: 0.009

5pm:
gfs: 0.028
Forecast: 0.020
cmc: 0.012
fnmoc: 0.011

6pm:
gfs: 0.030
Forecat: 0.022
fnmoc: 0.014
cmc: 0.012

7pm:
gfs: 0.032
Forecast: 0.023
fnmoc: 0.015
cmc: 0.012

8pm:
gfs: 0.033
Forecast: 0.023
fnmoc: 0.017
cmc: 0.012

9pm:
gfs: 0.035
Forecast: 0.024
fnmoc: 0.018
cmc: 0.011

10pm:
gfs: 0.035
Forecast: 0.024
fnmoc: 0.019
cmc: 0.010

11pm:
gfs: 0.032
Forecast: 0.022
fnmoc: 0.020
cmc: 0.009

Sun, Dec 15, 2013

12am:
gfs: 0.029
Forecast: 0.020
fnmoc: 0.020
cmc: 0.008

1am:
gfs: 0.025
fnmoc: 0.020
Forecast: 0.018
cmc: 0.007

2am:
gfs: 0.020
fnmoc: 0.019
Forecast: 0.015
cmc: 0.006

3am:
fnmoc: 0.017
gfs: 0.014
Forecast: 0.011
cmc: 0.006

4am:
fnmoc: 0.013
gfs: 0.008
Forecast: 0.007
cmc: 0.005

Wed, Dec 11

from this morning's nws afd:

the snow should end from west to east saturday night. suspect that much of the area could see 4 to 6 inches of snow by that time.
since I don't watch tv news, I'm guessing that end-of-the-world scenarios are being discussed by the climaterrorists for four inches of snowfall that may be spread out over a 15 to 20 hour time period.

! posted by jr on Dec 11, 2013 at 07:56:59 am


http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/165696#166837

12Z models can all be seen in the first post. Not a lot of changes. The storm is now in NAM's forecast window and its first shot of it has a more southern path than GFS/Euro were doing.

NAM: 1-3" North, 2-4" South
GFS: 6-8" metro wide
GEM: 6-8" metro wide

12Z Euro is just now coming in, it is only up through 7AM Saturday as of right now with 2-4" by then.

! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 11, 2013 at 01:48:12 pm

thu, dec 12

Pretty good model consistency and agreement among almost all of them now on the snow this weekend.

Model Snow Forecast
GEM - 6-8"
GFS - 4-6" at the MI border to 6-8" south of the turnpike.
NAM - 3-6"

Winter Storm Watches will likely go up tomorrow to cover Saturday.

! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 12, 2013 at 02:41:47 am �


my early morning comment:

dec 12, 2013

3:15 am cleveland nws area forecast discussion that includes the counties of lucas and wood:

it appears that periods of heavy snow will be possible on saturday.

much of the area will see 4 to 6 inches of snow from friday evening through saturday afternoon.

this isn't enough for a watch and expect that later shifts will go with advisories for most of the area.


3:39 am detroit/pontiac nws area forecast discussion that includes monroe county:

expecting a widespread advisory snow event for all of southeastern michigan beginning saturday at midnight and persisting to approximately 00z sunday. these inverted trough type systems can turn into a longer duration grinder.

the cold system and the lack of true higher theta e content in the low levels suggests higher snow ratios in the 12:1 to 13:1 range.

highest snowfall amounts...3 to 5 inches...are expected to fall south of 8 mile.


4:27 am northern indiana nws area forecast discussion that includes the counties of fulton and henry:

roebber snow ratio probabilities tied to consensus blended qpf of one quarter inch nw corner to one half in se corner portends a general 3 to 6 inch snow.

hwvr as stated yda upside potential can not be ignored w/potential for band of 6 to 8 inches alg/s of a winimac...columbia city...wauseon line.


NWS IWX's thoughts...

..SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

CURRENT COMPUTER MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A POTENT UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
WOULD BE FAVORED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT PROJECTIONS WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL
FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ROCHESTER TO
TOLEDO LINE. HOWEVER SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER POTENTIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 12, 2013 at 02:28:38 pm


The 18Z model run...

NAM
Through 4AM Sat: 1 or less near I-75, 1-2" closer to IN Border
4AM to 7AM: ~1 inch I-75 and east north of US 6. West/South of that area 1-2"
7AM to 10AM: ~1 inch near Lake to 1-2" further SW away from the lake.
10AM to 1PM: ~1 inch North of US 6, 1-2" south

Range: 2-4" near the lake, 4-8" west and south of that area.

GFS
Through 4AM Sat: 1 inch
4AM to 7AM: 1 inch
7AM to 10AM: 1 inch
10AM to 1PM: 1" north to 1-2" south
1PM to 4PM: 1 inch

Range: 3-6"

! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 12, 2013 at 04:57:31 pm


Winter Wx Adv for counties west of I-75.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SATURDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

  • SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
    FRIDAY EVENING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 6
    INCHES BY THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

IMPACTS...

  • ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED... SLICK AND HAZARDOUS FRIDAY
    NIGHT... CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY... MAKING TRAVEL ACROSS THE
    AREA DIFFICULT.
  • USE CAUTION WHEN SHOVELING SNOW AS THIS CAN BE A VERY STRENUOUS
    ACTIVITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 12, 2013 at 07:29:31 pm # +


excerpts from the area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
655 pm est thu dec 12 2013

it appears that much of the area will see 4 to 6 inches of snow from friday evening through saturday afternoon.

i think the snow will arrive fairly quickly friday night. probably around midnight or soon after from west to east.

some of the better snow (moderate snow perhaps briefly heavy??) could occur saturday morning

the storm track makes me nervous... the tracks into the ohio valley often lead to a band of heavier snow somewhere on the north side of the system...but none of the models so far this week have generated heavy qpf.

a long lasting advisory from late friday night into saturday evening is likely.

we will wait to take a peak at tonight's runs just to make sure that the qpf amounts are not sneaking up.

in any case...very little wind and temperatures up near freezing should make the event manageable and give some good sledding/cross country snow.

Fri, Dec 13

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
321 am est fri dec 13 2013

.an area of low pressure will move up the ohio valley tonight and
saturday spreading snow across the region. this is a classic set
up for accumulating snow across the area. the snow should begin
from west to east tonight and then last for around 24 hours.
periods of moderate to heavy are possible at times...especially
saturday morning.

ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047-131630-
/o.new.kcle.ww.y.0016.131214t0200z-131215t0000z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-
crawford-richland-ashland-marion-morrow-knox-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...
upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...ashland...marion...
mount gilead...mount vernon
321 am est fri dec 13 2013

...winter weather advisory in effect from 9 pm this evening to
7 pm est saturday...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter
weather advisory which is in effect from 9 pm this evening to 7
pm est saturday.

  • accumulations...5 to 6 inches.
  • timing...the snow will spread across the region from west to
    east this evening and then taper off saturday evening.
  • winds...southeast to east winds at 5 to 15 mph.
  • impacts...snow accumulation can make roads slick...requiring
    lower speeds and greater distances between vehicles while
    driving.
  • temperatures...in the 20s tonight climbing into the lower 30s on
    saturday.
  • visibilities...less than one half mile at times.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter weather advisory is normally issued for a variety of
winter weather conditions such as light snow, blowing snow,
sleet, freezing rain and wind chills. while the weather will be
significant, the word advisory implies that severe winter weather
is not anticipated. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for further
details or updates.


short term /saturday through sunday night/...
models remain fairly consistent handling the low moving up the ohio
valley tonight and saturday. confidence is fairly high today. qpf
amounts are up a little with the new 00z runs with much of area now
progged to get around 0.50 inches liquid equivalent. with snow to
water ratios dipping to around 10 to 1 on saturday expect most of
the area to get between 5 and 6 inches of snow. this is consistent
with the earlier thinking of 4 to 6 inches. have gone ahead and
hoisted a winter weather advisory for the entire area. the precip
will arrive in the west this evening and will start the headline a
little sooner there. by 06z sunday most of the snow should be gone.
the scenario the next 36 hours is a classic setup for good snow
across the area with an inverted trough sliding east across the
region. the gulf should open and expecting good isentropic lift.
some moderate to heavy snow could occur on saturday morning for a
few hours. some banding is likely as strong low level convergence is
likely somewhere across the forecast area. locations under this
preferred area could see locally higher snow amounts. unfortunately
right now it is tough to tell where and if this will occur. later
shifts may need to upgrade a row of counties to a warning at some
point. other concern today is possibility of mixed precip saturday
afternoon in the far south. the southern end of our area should be
close to the transition zone. the worst case scenario would be a
period of sleet falling on top of snow in the millersburg...canton
and youngstown areas. for now will continue with all snow but this
too will need to be watched.
some lake effect snow is likely sunday and sunday night. it does
not look like the moisture will be deep enough to sustain accums
high enough for more headlines. after getting close to freezing on
saturday...temps will again plummet. have used a blend of guidance
numbers today.


Includes Fulton County

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7
PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SATURDAY.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

  • SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
    EVENING...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
    AFTERNOON.
  • TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
    SATURDAY EVENING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
    TIME...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NEAR OR SOUTH OF US
    ROUTE 6 ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

IMPACTS...

  • ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TONIGHT...
    CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS
    ACROSS THE WARNING AREA.
  • VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE WITH
    THE HEAVY SNOW.
  • USE CAUTION WHEN SHOVELING SNOW AS THIS CAN BE A VERY STRENUOUS
    ACTIVITY.

! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 13, 2013 at 01:57:47 pm # +


Lucas County, Ohio

Winter Weather Advisory
Statement as of 3:45 PM EST on December 13, 2013

... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 9 PM this
evening to 7 PM EST Saturday...

  • accumulations... 5 to 7 inches.
  • Timing... the snow will spread across the region from west to
    east tonight and then taper off Saturday evening.
  • Winds... southeast to east winds at 5 to 15 mph.
  • Impacts... snow accumulation will make roads slick... requiring
    lower speeds and greater distances between vehicles while
    driving.
  • Temperatures... in the 20s tonight climbing to 28 to 32 on
    Saturday.
  • Visibilities... less than one half mile at times.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory is normally issued for a variety of
winter weather conditions such as light snow... blowing snow...
sleet... freezing rain and wind chills. While the weather will be
significant... the word advisory implies that severe winter
weather is not anticipated. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for
further details or updates.


Fulton County, Ohio

Fulton
Winter Storm Warning
Statement as of 10:38 AM CST on December 13, 2013

... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this
evening to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Saturday...

The National Weather Service in northern Indiana has issued a
Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow... which is in effect from 7
PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Saturday.
The Winter Weather Advisory is no longer in effect.

Hazardous weather...

  • snow will overspread the area from southwest to northeast this
    evening... becoming heavy at times overnight through early Saturday
    afternoon.
  • Total accumulations of 5 to 8 inches are expected by early
    Saturday evening with locally higher amounts possible. At this
    time... the highest amounts are expected near or south of US
    Route 6 across Indiana and Northwest Ohio.

Impacts...

  • roads will become snow covered... slick and hazardous tonight...
    continuing into Saturday. This will make travel dangerous
    across the warning area.
  • Visibilities will be reduced to less than one quarter mile with
    the heavy snow.
  • Use caution when shoveling snow as this can be a very strenuous
    activity.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of
snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in
an emergency. If you must travel... keep an extra flashlight...
food... and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.


Monroe County, Michigan

Monroe
Winter Weather Advisory
Statement as of 12:32 PM EST on December 13, 2013

... Winter Weather Advisory now in effect from midnight tonight to
midnight EST Saturday night...

The Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from midnight
tonight to midnight EST Saturday night.

Hazardous weather...

  • light snow will develop tonight. Moderate snow will fall
    tomorrow... ending Saturday evening.
  • 4 to 6 inches of snow is expected by Saturday evening.
  • East winds will increase to around 20 mph late tonight and
    continue on Saturday... causing some minor blowing and drifting
    of the snow.

Impacts...

  • roads will be snow covered and slippery.
  • Visibilities will be reduced to as low as a half mile at times.
  • Minor blowing and drifting snow will occur along north-south
    roads in open areas.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

  • a Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow and
    blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
    slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution
    while driving.


urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
933 pm est fri dec 13 2013

.an area of low pressure will move up the ohio valley late
tonight and saturday and spread snow across the region. the snow
should begin in the west toward midnight and spread to the east
before sunrise. the snow will persist around 24 hours before
tapering to lake effect snow showers in the snow belt. periods of
moderate snow are expected...especially saturday morning.

ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047-141045-
/o.con.kcle.ww.y.0016.000000t0000z-131215t0000z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-
crawford-richland-ashland-marion-morrow-knox-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...
upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...ashland...marion...
mount gilead...mount vernon
933 pm est fri dec 13 2013

...winter weather advisory remains in effect until 7 pm est
saturday...

  • accumulations...5 to 7 inches.
  • timing...the snow will spread across the region from west to
    east tonight and then taper off saturday evening.
  • winds...southeast to east winds at 5 to 15 mph.
  • impacts...snow accumulation will make roads slick...requiring
    lower speeds and greater distances between vehicles while
    driving.
  • temperatures...in the 20s tonight climbing to 28 to 32 on
    saturday.
  • visibilities...less than one half mile at times.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

while the weather will be significant... the word advisory
implies that severe winter weather is not anticipated. stay tuned
to noaa weather radio for further details or updates.

Sat, Dec 14

I went outside this morning at about 6:50 a.m. to clear paths in the driveway and backyard for areas where I scatter millet for the juncos. I finished at 7:05 a.m. The first juncos, however, arrived between 6:55 and 7:00 a.m. I measured 1.5 inches of snow at 6:50 a.m. #home #birds #weather
From: JR's : micro blog - Dec 14, 2013 - reply

2 replies
JR: Light snow fell at 7:00 a.m. The 7am TOL temp was 23 degrees. Total snow accum by the end of today is predicted to be 4 to 7 inches. At least 10 juncos foraged in our backyard at 7:10 a.m.
- 1 min ago - # - reply

JR: with the E-NE wind blowing at 10 to 15 mph, we may get some lake enhancement snow today in the Toledo area.
- 1 secs ago - # - reply


I measured 1.5 inches of new snowfall at 7:00 a.m. Light snow continued to fall, but radar shows the snow may end for a bit in the Toledo area this morning. A big hole in the snow pattern is centered over Findlay.

6:04 a.m. AFD

short term models indicate somewhat of a lull in snow intensity thru 10 or 11 am then things should pick up again.

still looks like about 2 to 4 inches of accumulation today...possibly 3 to 5 in some places where some heavier banding takes place.

including early tonight...should see a total of 5 to 7 inches on average.

still would prefer to keep an advisory going for this event as the snow should be light most of the time and overall totals not expected to get to the 8 inches or more criteria for the 24 hour period to warrant a warning.

also a little sleet could mix into the snow at times which would lead to lesser accumulation totals.


urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
1133 am est sat dec 14 2013

ohz003-006>008-017-018-150045-
/o.upg.kcle.ww.y.0016.000000t0000z-131215t0100z/
/o.new.kcle.ws.w.0005.131214t1633z-131215t0100z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-hancock-seneca-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...findlay...tiffin
1133 am est sat dec 14 2013

...winter storm warning in effect until 8 pm est this evening...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter
storm warning for heavy snow...which is in effect until 8 pm est
this evening. the winter weather advisory is no longer in effect.

  • accumulations...additional accumulations of 3 to 5 inches for a
    storm total of 6 to 9 inches.
  • timing...snow will intensify this afternoon and be moderate to
    heavy for several hours. snow will decrease this evening.
  • winds...east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph turning north this
    evening.
  • impacts...snow accumulation will make roads slick...requiring
    lower speeds and greater distances between vehicles while
    driving.
  • temperatures...climbing to 28 to 32 today then falling to 17 to
    21 late tonight.
  • visibilities...will drop to less than one half mile this
    afternoon.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter storm warning is issued when severe winter weather is
expected. heavy snow and/or ice will cause hazardous driving
conditions. if you will be traveling in the warning area you
should choose an alternate route if possible, or you should use
extreme caution if travel is unavoidable. stay tuned to noaa
weather radio for further details or updates.


fxus61 kcle 141758
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1258 pm est sat dec 14 2013

synopsis...
a low will move northeast into ohio by early tonight then shift off
the mid atlantic coast into sunday leaving a trough extending west
from the low into the great lakes. high pressure will move east
across the area early monday then a series of cold fronts will move
southeast across the region tuesday into tuesday night before high
pressure pushes up the ohio valley wednesday into wednesday night.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
winter storm warning has been issued for portions of northwest
ohio as band of moderate to heavy snow is developing nicely across
central and northern indiana. reports as high as 4 inches have
come in from the toledo area already and the snow is going to
increase for the afternoon with an additional 3 to 5 inches of
snowfall expected...mainly by 6-7 pm. this would push the storm
total into the 6-9 inch range for most of the warning area. cloud
tops are cooling on ir satellite imagery as the deformation axis
pivots aloft. the dry- slot is starting to spread into extreme
southern ohio and will continue northeast this afternoon. the
warning area should remain to the northwest of the dry-slot in the
favorable region for the heavier snowfall. visibilities will drop
to 1/2 mile for much of the afternoon...occasionally drop to 1/4
mile.

further to the south we see temperatures starting to warm both
aloft and at the surface and columbus has been reporting rain
since about 10 am. the temperature is now up to 35 degrees. the
surface low is forecast to track to central ohio by 00z and then
continue northeast to northwest pennsylvania. this should
effectively pull the warm air north to roughly a cak-yng
line...but we could see precip type try to mix with sleet or
change over even as far north as cle as the dry-slot pulls north.
could see the southern counties change over to just rain for a
period of time. did not include any freezing rain in the forecast
as the change over upstream has been occurring concurrently with
warming at the surface. did lower forecast snowfall in the
southern counties with only an additional 1 to 3 expected...with a
storm total in the 2-4 inch range. precipitation will change back
over to snow as the event comes to an end.
previous discussion...
the latest models continue to keep things on track with a low
lifting ne into se oh early tonight then weakening as a new low
deepens along the mid atlantic coast. short term models indicate
somewhat of a lull in snow intensity thru 10 or 11 am then things
should pick up again.
still looks like about 2 to 4 inches of accumulation
today...possibly 3 to 5 in some places where some heavier banding
takes place. including early tonight...should see a total of 5 to 7
inches on average. still would prefer to keep an advisory going for
this event as the snow should be light most of the time and overall
totals not expected to get to the 8 inches or more criteria for the
24 hour period to warrant a warning. also a little sleet could mix
into the snow at times which would lead to lesser accumulation
totals.
due to the cloud and snow prefer to only allow high temps to rise
around the freezing point at most for all but the far se co's where
warm advection a little better so could see temps get to 33 or 34
there.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through monday night/...
the dynamics and deeper moisture shift east tonight as a new low
develop near the nj coast. expect snow to taper to flurries west to
east during the first half of the night leaving just light
accumulating snow left in the east for the second half of the night
with maybe up to another inch possible. will extend ending of
advisories a little more into early tonight in the west and further
into the night in the east.
colder temps will lead to improving lake effect conditions sun into
sun night but lack of decent moisture above 850 mb should mean
accumulations stay light with maybe an inch or two for favored areas
sun and again sun night.
the models indicate a weak warm advection pattern setting up mon and
mon night. upper energy dropping se into the lakes in combination
with the warm advection should provide lift to create the forcing
for some light snow to affect the area. the better threat should be
closer to leri where overall conditions will remain more favorable.
think accumulation will run an inch or less mon and again mon night
although some higher terrain locations in the snowbelt could see a
little more.
&&

long term /tuesday through friday/...
a cold front will move through on tuesday causing some snow showers
with the best chance in the snow belt. all parts of the forecast
area will have a chance of snow showers as the upper trough moves
through.
tuesday night into wednesday the snow belt will have snow showers
with a west to northwest flow. moisture is marginal...an advisory
may or may not be needed. snow showers will be ending quickly
wednesday night as the high over the ohio valley moves east and the
flow becomes southwest.
thursday will be dry and warming in a strong southwest flow. some
rain showers will developing during the night. temperatures should
be rising or steady during the night. a pretty good chance of rain
showers on friday ahead of the front with mild temperatures.
&&

aviation /18z saturday through wednesday/...
low pressure has now reached the middle ohio river valley to the
southwest of cincinnati. the low will continue to track to the
northeast near the ohio river valley. all locations will be ifr
for the first 6 hours of the taf. ceilings may fluctuate into mvfr
levels but believe visibilities will remain under 2 miles with
the snowfall. the heaviest swath of snow will likely move across
nw ohio into early evening. however the remainder of the area will
still get light snow all afternoon. easterly winds will continue
into the evening at 10 knots or less.
of concern late in the afternoon into the early evening is the
amount of rain that can move into the southern areas. the best
chances for this to occur will be kcak and kyng. it appears
temperatures will warm just enough to avoid any freezing rain. the
rain will change back to snow at all locations by 03z.
the snow will begin to taper off after 04z across nw ohio...around
05z central areas...and 09z across the east. at this point winds
will have shifted around to the northwest. some light lake
enhanced snowfall may then occur across ne ohio in nw pa.

outlook...frequent non vfr especially across ne oh/nw pa.
&&

marine...
another very active period for the lake.
east winds are picking up on the lake today with the low moving
through the ohio valley and the high to the north. winds and or
waves will just meet small craft advisory criteria on much of the
nearshore. the winds will switch from east to north or northeast
tonight. it is possible that the winds and waves could briefly drop
below small craft advisory criteria...it will be brief so will keep
the small craft advisory going. some ice cover near the islands
may lower the waves down a little.
on sunday with high pressure starting to build toward the ohio
valley and low pressure over the central lakes a small craft
advisory will continue to be needed. the threat for small craft
advisory conditions will last into sunday night.
a break from the small craft advisory is expected on monday with a
southwest flow...however...waves could still be high on the east
end. a cold front moves through on tuesday and in its wake...winds
and waves will meet small craft advisory criteria over much of the
lake. a break from the small craft advisory late wednesday night
into thursday. however...late on thursday the southwest flow ahead
of a front that will move through late friday will be increasing.
the winds aloft will be very strong so eventually some of those
winds will make it to the lake so a small craft advisory will likely
be needed thursday evening into friday.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 11 pm est this evening for
ohz010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
winter storm warning until 8 pm est this evening for ohz003-
006>008-017-018.
winter weather advisory until 8 pm est this evening for ohz009-
019-027>030-036-037-047.
pa...winter weather advisory until 11 pm est this evening for
paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est monday for lez142>149.
&&
$$
synopsis...adams
near term...adams/kec
short term...adams
long term...kieltyka
aviation...mullen
marine...kieltyka

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