Jan 8, 2014 Toledo Weather

#toledo - #weather

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
941 pm est tue jan 7 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-081045-
/o.con.kcle.wc.y.0002.000000t0000z-140108t1400z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-
trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-
marion-morrow-holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-
southern erie-crawford pa-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon...
jefferson...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...medina...akron...
ravenna...warren...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...
ashland...wooster...canton...youngstown...marion...mount gilead...
millersburg...mount vernon...ashtabula...erie...edinboro...
meadville
941 pm est tue jan 7 2014

...wind chill advisory remains in effect until 9 am est
wednesday...

• timing...through wednesday morning.

• winds...southwest 10 to 20 mph diminishing by morning.

• temperatures...gradually rising from zero to 5 below...to 5 to
  10 above by daybreak.

• wind chill readings...dangerous wind chill values from 10 to 20
  degrees below zero at times tonight improving by early wednesday
  morning.

• impacts...frostbite is possible on any exposed skin.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a wind chill advisory is issued when wind...combined with low
temperatures...create dangerously cold conditions for exposed
skin. the wind will make it feel like it is 10 degrees below zero
or colder for a period of several hours. if you will be outdoors
use common sense and dress warmly...making sure that all exposed
skin is covered. if possible...avoid prolonged exposure to the
cold to prevent frostbite and hypothermia. stay tuned to weather
radio for further details or updates.

---

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
314 am est wed jan 8 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-081400-
/o.con.kcle.wc.y.0002.000000t0000z-140108t1400z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-
trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-
marion-morrow-holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-
southern erie-crawford pa-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon...
jefferson...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...medina...akron...
ravenna...warren...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...
ashland...wooster...canton...youngstown...marion...mount gilead...
millersburg...mount vernon...ashtabula...erie...edinboro...
meadville
314 am est wed jan 8 2014

...wind chill advisory remains in effect until 9 am est this
morning...

• timing...through 9 am this morning.

• winds...southwest 5 to 15 mph.

• temperatures...gradually rising to 10 to 15 by late morning.

• wind chill readings...dangerous wind chill values from 10 to 20
  degrees below zero at times improving by late this morning.

• impacts...frostbite is possible on any exposed skin.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a wind chill advisory is issued when wind...combined with low
temperatures...create dangerously cold conditions for exposed
skin. the wind will make it feel like it is 10 degrees below zero
or colder for a period of several hours. if you will be outdoors
use common sense and dress warmly...making sure that all exposed
skin is covered. if possible...avoid prolonged exposure to the
cold to prevent frostbite and hypothermia. stay tuned to weather
radio for further details or updates.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jan 8, 2014 6:17 am

Today: A chance of snow showers, mainly between 4pm and 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 17. Wind chill values as low as -6. South wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Tonight: A chance of snow, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Thursday: A chance of snow, mainly after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Light and variable wind becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday: A chance of rain after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 37. South wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Rain likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Saturday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Breezy.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.

Monday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

---

fxus61 kcle 081157
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
657 am est wed jan 8 2014

synopsis...
high pressure over the area will briefly weaken to allow a
dissipating cold front to drift southeast to lake erie tonight. the
high will restrengthen thursday then shift off the east coast
thursday night. another cold front will move east across the region
saturday...quickly followed by high pressure saturday night then
another cold front should move through late monday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
the remaining lake effect shsn should stay ne of erie co pa this
morning so no accumulation expected. some light shsn could drift
back into erie co this afternoon.
a weak upper s/w diving se toward the area along with an approaching
surface cold front will combine to provide for increasing moisture
over the area today. weak warm advection lift may be just enough
to allow for some light/patchy snow to develop so will continue to
ramp up chance pops as the day progresses. any accumulation is
expected to be a half an inch or less.
temps moderate some today with highs all the way up into a 15 to 20
range for much of the area. but until temps rise enough this
morning...will keep the wind chill advisory going as planned until 9
am.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through friday night/...
the previously mentioned forcing mechanisms will remain in play
tonight although the moisture and focus gets pushed south so will
continue to shift the pops into the southeastern counties during the
course of the night. some areas in the south could see up to an inch
of accumulation tonight so have increased pops above guidance.
the mid and upper flow backs more sw thu into thu night in response
to a trough in the plains. the surface high shifts east of the area
and the low level flow shifts to the south. the moisture that was
pushed to the south will spread back north across the area thu. the
first weak s/w will ride ene from mo and move across the area thu
night into fri morning. could see more patchy light snow...mainly in
the west on thu then area-wide thu night. accumulation again
expected to generally be an inch or less.
the deeper moisture moves ene of the cwa by mid to late fri morning
while the low level moisture remains behind. this could lead to a
scenario where some patchy flurries or light fzdz could occur fri
morning until temps warm by midday enough for just sprinkles of rain.
a stronger upper trough and cold front approaching the area fri
night will bring deeper moisture back into the area from west to
east. temps will remain warm enough for just rain so will show
increasing pops for rain during the night.
&&

long term /saturday through tuesday/...
a cold front will move through saturday night. some rain will be
ahead of the front. rainfall amounts are expected to be around an
inch plus or minus a quarter inch. with the snow cover and the
ground hard...some minor flooding is possible along with some
movement of ice on the rivers and the potential for some ice jams.
this will be watched.
on saturday night a threat of rain or snow showers as some cold air
briefly comes in.
on sunday back to warm advection...kept the forecast dry even though
some of the models are hinting at some precipitation especially the
ecmwf.
a cold front moves through early next week. the gfs has a much
stronger low with this system. at this time just kept it chance pops
at this time. by late tuesday night temperatures will be cold
enough so any precipitation would be just snow.
the temperature forecast is tough for all the days...used a blend of
guidance. on saturday the winds will be gusty ahead of the front.
however...the rain may help keeping the winds from being too strong.
&&

aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
a large area of clouds around 5000 feet over the forecast area
will move to the northeast this morning. then a deck of clouds
with ceilings from 3000 to 5000 feet will develop during the
afternoon ahead of a weak cold front that will move across the
region this evening. all the models are indicating an area of
light snow will develop in the isentropic lift over the southern
portion of the forecast area tonight and some snow showers may
occur with the cold frontal passage over the northern counties.
conditions will try to improve from the north late tonight.
outlook...more non vfr possible thursday night into sunday in
either ceilings and or precipitation.
&&

marine...
the winds continue to decrease this morning...will let the gale
expire/cancel it with the 4 am issuance. with plenty of ice on lake
erie...small craft advisories will not be issued until the ice
breaks up.
high pressure was over the southeast states and will move east late
thursday. a weak cold front will move across lake erie this evening.
winds will be on the light side.
strong southerly winds will develop friday night into saturday ahead
of a cold front that will move across the lake saturday afternoon.
the southerly winds are not expected to reach gale force. the cold
advection after the frontal passage will be moderate. at this time
not expecting gale force winds but it could be close. this will have
to be watched. the gfs model has the winds stronger than the ecmwf.
the next threat for gale force winds will be on tuesday...mainly
after the cold frontal passage. moderate southerly winds will occur
ahead of the cold front and for several hours after the cold frontal
passage the winds could be close to gale force according to the gfs
model which has this system much stronger than the ecmwf. this will
have to be monitored for the trends in the models.
with moderating temperature for the weekend and early next week and
strong southerly winds at times some ice movement may occur on the
lake. this will have to be watched by anyone venturing out on the
lake.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind chill advisory until 9 am est this morning for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...wind chill advisory until 9 am est this morning for paz001>003.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...adams
near term...adams
short term...adams
long term...kieltyka
aviation...kieltyka
marine...kieltyka