Tue, Jan 21, 2014 Toledo Area Weather

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
353 am est tue jan 21 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-220900-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
353 am est tue jan 21 2014

...wind chill advisory in effect from 10 am this morning to 11 am
est wednesday...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

wind chill advisory.

.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

---

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
346 am est tue jan 21 2014

...arctic air brings cold wind chills...

.the combination of high pressure building east toward the area
and low pressure across the ohio valley today will cause winds to
increase. the somewhat gusty winds will combine with cold
temperatures to produce cold wind chills today through wednesday
morning.

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-211700-
/o.new.kcle.wc.y.0003.140121t1500z-140122t1600z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-
trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-
marion-morrow-holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-
southern erie-crawford pa-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon...
jefferson...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...medina...akron...
ravenna...warren...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...
ashland...wooster...canton...youngstown...marion...mount gilead...
millersburg...mount vernon...ashtabula...erie...edinboro...
meadville
346 am est tue jan 21 2014

...wind chill advisory in effect from 10 am this morning to 11 am
est wednesday...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a wind chill
advisory...which is in effect from 10 am this morning to 11 am
est wednesday.

• wind chill readings...the wind chill readings will drop to
  between -10 and -15 degrees today through wednesday morning.

• winds...winds will be between 10 and 20 mph later this morning
  and continue through the afternoon hours. winds are expected to
  drop to between 6 and 10 mph tonight into wednesday morning.

• temperatures...temperatures are expected to hover around 10
  degrees today but dip to between 0 and -5 degrees tonight across
  the area. the cold temperatures will gradually recover wednesday
  morning.

• impacts...the cold wind chills will pose a threat to those that
  are outside with exposed skin. animals should also be protected
  from the cold wind chills.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a wind chill advisory is issued when strong wind will combine
with cold temperatures to create dangerously cold conditions for
exposed skin. the wind will make it feel like it is 10 degrees
below zero or colder for a period of several hours. if you will
be outdoors use common sense and dress warmly...making sure that
all exposed skin is covered. if possible...avoid prolonged
exposure to the cold to prevent frostbite and hypothermia. stay
tuned to weather radio for further details or updates.

---

Toledo Express Airport
Jan 21, 2014 8:52 am
Weather : A Few Clouds
Temperature : 4 F
Humidity : 63%
Wind Speed : N 16 mph - Gust 23 mph
Barometer : 30.12 in
Dewpoint: -6 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : -15 F

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jan 21, 2014 6:25 am

Today: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 7. Wind chill values as low as -12. North wind around 14 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -1. Wind chill values as low as -13. North wind 5 to 13 mph becoming southwest after midnight.

Wednesday: A chance of snow showers, mainly after 7am. Cloudy, with a high near 15. Wind chill values as low as -12. Southwest wind 7 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Snow showers likely, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -11. Southwest wind 11 to 13 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday: A slight chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 11. Northwest wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -6.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 14. Breezy.

Friday Night: Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 25. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 13.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 0.

Monday: Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 10.

---

fxus61 kcle 211128
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
628 am est tue jan 21 2014

synopsis...
low pressure will move east across the ohio valley this morning
while high pressure builds southeast into the region this afternoon
and evening. another weak area of low pressure will move southeast
over the area tonight. high pressure will move southeast and then
east across the gulf coast states on friday. another low pressure
system will move east across central ontario canada and force a cold
front through the area on saturday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
light snow continues to occur across the area this morning.
expecting light accumulations and gradually dissipating from west
to east across the area. no real major changes to forecast with
this update.
previous discussion...
overall pattern remains unchanged at this time as ridge continues on
the west coast and broad upper level trough continues over the
eastern united states.
a surface low pressure system will move east across the ohio valley
this morning and spread some light snow into mainly the southern
portions of the forecast area. flow should support the potential for
a multi lake snow band from lake huron across lake erie into eastern
ohio and northwest pennsylvania. expecting the lake effect to be
light as it continues through the day today. snow across the south
should remain light as well and the bulk of it should remain south
of the forecast area.
temperatures are going to be a problem today as some fairly strong
cold air advection takes place. the cold air will start to push
into the region this morning and winds are expected to increase to
between 10 and 20 mph. this in combination with temperatures around
10 degrees will cause wind chills to drop below the -10 threshold
for wind chill advisories. so...will go ahead and hoist the wind
chill advisory for today from 15z through wednesday morning at 16z.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through friday night/...
wind chill temperatures will still be an issue overnight tonight
into wednesday morning. temperatures are expected to drop down to
around 0 to -4 f for lows. even though winds are expected to
diminish during the night a bit...wind chills will still be below
the -10 threshold. will keep the winter weather advisory through the
night into wednesday morning. expecting some warming to take place
wednesday morning along with diminishing winds and we will likely be
able to drop the advisory for a period during the rest of the day
wednesday. this will be short lived as temperatures will dip to the
single digits with winds increasing again for wednesday night. this
will bring wind chills back down to below -10 especially across the
south. it will be close across the northern portions of the area but
will keep the advisory in for that area as well in case winds are a
bit stronger and temperatures are a bit colder. the best chance for
very cold wind chills will come thursday night into friday morning
but more on that as it approaches.
as high pressure builds east across the area tonight...lake effect
snow shower activity will gradually come to an end as flow shifts to
a westerly and then southwesterly direction. then...another low
pressure system will slip southeast across the great lakes region on
wednesday and spread more snow into the area. best chance will be
wednesday evening with weak warm air advection ahead of the low and
best upper level dynamics arriving at this time. as low pressure
pulls out to the east...a trailing surface trough of low pressure
will linger across the forecast area through thursday. then moisture
associated with the trough will exit stage right leaving behind
adequate flow and lake moisture to produce lake effect snow over the
northeast and fair weather elsewhere.
yet another storm system will approach from the northwest friday
into friday night and this storm system will be a repeat of all the
other systems and spread some moisture into the area along with
vigorous upper level positive vorticity maximum over the region.
this system appears that it will be a bit more potent than the
previous one with a bit more moisture to work with as well. will be
keeping an eye on this system for possible headlines.
the next bulls eye for cold temperatures arrives on thursday with
early highs in the morning and then falling through the day. will
try to trend temperature in that direction for now. this should be
the coldest day of this forecast period as warmer air tries to
return ahead of the next system on friday.
&&

long term /saturday through monday/...
little change in the extended forecast with much below normal
temperatures and periods of snow. deep upper level low remains
nearly stationary over hudson bay with a series of short waves
moving across the area. both gfs and ecmwf very similar in timing
with arctic front moving through on saturday. after that the timing
of the short waves between the models out of sync. for now will
just continue with chance pops through the period...especially in
the snowbelt east of cleveland.
&&

aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
snow over the area will gradually taper off from the nw as the
surface low now over virginia...moves off the mid atlantic coast
this afternoon. expect most locations to improve to vfr this
afternoon.
outlook...non vfr possible again wednesday afternoon through
thursday night...and again saturday in -sn.
&&

marine...
the lake is mostly ice covered although there are a few open areas
mainly east...and along the south shore. northeast flow over the
lake will shift to the north today...and then to the southwest
wednesday as high pressure moves across the ohio valley. winds
shift back to the northwest wednesday night as a clipper moves
across the lake. winds again back to the southwest friday as
another area of high pressure moves across the tennessee valley.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind chill advisory from 10 am this morning to 11 am est
wednesday for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089.
pa...wind chill advisory from 10 am this morning to 11 am est
wednesday for paz001>003.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...lombardy
near term...lombardy
short term...lombardy
long term...djb
aviation...djb
marine...djb

---

fxus63 kiwx 211110
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
610 am est tue jan 21 2014

synopsis...
issued at 349 am est tue jan 21 2014
much colder air will settle across the region today and tonight as
arctic high pressure builds into the lower ohio valley. a strong upper
level disturbance over southern illinois early this morning will
move rapidly eastward and into the western atlantic tonight. snow
associated with this system will diminish through daybreak.
an intense lake effect snow band over northeast illinois early
this morning will move into northwestern indiana and far
southwestern lower michigan later today...bringing the potential
for several inches of snow near the lake. temperatures today will
hold nearly steady in the upper single digits to the lower teens.lows
tonight will drop into the single digits below zero with wind chills
zero to 10 below late tonight into wednesday morning.
&&

short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 349 am est tue jan 21 2014
vigorous wrapping up acrs cntrl il generally creating havoc across
the oh valley early this morning. stg downstream fgen response ongoing
w/mesobanding taking place w/moderate snowfall. in addn...rapidly
deepening sfc reflection invof se ky ahd of arctic high advg sewd
out of the dakotas yielding widespread 15 to 25kt winds and the
primary driver for nr term advisory issuance cntrl/srn in
counties.
hwvr rapid sewd progression of this sys xpcd shrt term as sys
intensifies further sewd into the mid atl. snow shld quickly
diminish by 12z as mid lvl trough passes and rapidly weakening sfc
gradient as coastal handoff takes place and bombs ovr the wrn atl
tonight. falling early morning temps shld steady out bfr crashing
tonight as arctic ridge settles into the wrn oh valley.
as feared last night...intense lk snowband had backed all the way
into chicagoland in reflection of much deeper mid lvl disturbance
tracking through srn il. thus xpc band will make only slw ewd
progress through 18z and xpcd to breakup shortly aft 06z. given
degree of dry entrainment assocd/w arctic wedge bldg ewd out of the
nrn plains and assocd ll shear dvlpmnt this eve as flw backs
abruptly in wake of departing mid lvl trough not to mention stg
subsidence...will downgrade to an advisory w/best chc of
realistically seeing sig accums ovr the far wrn portion of both
counties.
&&

long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 349 am est tue jan 21 2014
highly amplified positive pna ridge along the west coast of north
america will remain nearly stationary through early next week and
continue to allow bitterly cold arctic air to funnel into the great
lakes and ohio valley. numerous shortwaves in resulting perturbed
northwest flow will bring several rounds of light snow and gusty
winds through the period...with veered flow/caa in wake of shortwaves
allowing the lake machine to kick in.
models have remained in good agreement regarding wed aftn/night's
potent shortwave and weak sfc reflection progged to drop southeast
through lower michigan. should see light snow break out in
isentropic ascent wing of system late in the morning into wed
aftn/eve...best chances north. strong mid lvl dpva and 5-3h q-vector
convergence in tandem with modest 20-25 knots of system relative
280k upglide should be enough to generate this light pcpn. meager 1
g/kg 1000-850 mb moisture tap should limit synoptic snow amounts to
an inch or two of fluff. another intense lake effect single band
will likely materialize in wake of pivoting low level trough later
wed night-thu. far northwestern zones...including south bend/la
porte/benton harbor...may be impacted by headline level snows.
however...very low confidence as to where this sets up as wave could
come in stronger or weaker affecting low level trajectories. will
continue to highlight the potential for heavy lake snow in the hwo
for now with thermodynamic parameters favorable for impressive snow
rates/amounts.
strong 150 kt plus upper jet modeled to drop out of central canada
into the north-central us by later friday into friday night will
likely send a series of more vigorous mid lvl impulses southeast
through the lower lakes friday night through sunday. model consensus
brings one clipper through friday night-sat morning and another
around sunday...with strong winds and blowing possible with
impressive cyclogenetic response eventually expected across
southeast canada...timed with next pv drop. some slight modification
in temperatures is anticipated friday into early saturday ahead of
the next reinforcing shot of arctic air. blowing snow/strong winds
will likely be an issue on friday...similar to this past sunday...as
low level thermal ridge folds in advance of arctic front. the friday
night/saturday morning wave looks to have better moisture to work
and may lay down some decent snow...with lake effect snow
showers/blowing snow expected saturday.
&&

aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z wednesday morning)
issued at 605 am est tue jan 21 2014
vigorous sw disturbance crossing into nrn ky as of 11z w/mid lvl
trough rapidly shifting through the cwa. xpc back edge of snow will
accelerate sewd and be out of remainder of se cwa by 13z. brief mvfr
conds at kfwa will improve sigly w/vfr dvlpg twd 13z. otrws sfc
gradient flw will diminish sigly esp by lt morning and collapse
overnight as arctic high blds into the lwr oh valley.
&&

iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for
inz032>034.
winter weather advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
inz013-015>018.
lake effect snow advisory from 8 am this morning to 8 pm cst
this evening for inz003.
winter weather advisory until 7 am est this morning for inz020-
022>027.
mi...lake effect snow advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 1 am est
wednesday for miz077.
oh...none.
lm...small craft advisory until 11 pm est this evening for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
synopsis...t
short term...t
long term...steinwedel
aviation...t
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