Toledo forecasts issued on Fri, Jan 24, 2014

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
325 am est fri jan 24 2014

ohz003-006-008-017-018-027>031-036>038-047-241630-
/o.upg.kcle.ws.a.0002.140125t0000z-140125t2100z/
/o.new.kcle.ww.y.0005.140124t1800z-140126t0300z/
/o.ext.kcle.wc.y.0004.000000t0000z-140124t1800z/
lucas-wood-sandusky-hancock-seneca-wyandot-crawford-richland-
ashland-wayne-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...fremont...
findlay...tiffin...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...
ashland...wooster...marion...mount gilead...millersburg...
mount vernon
325 am est fri jan 24 2014

...wind chill advisory now in effect until 1 pm est this
afternoon...
...winter weather advisory in effect from 1 pm this afternoon to
10 pm est saturday...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter
weather advisory for snow and blowing snow which is in effect from
1 pm this afternoon to 10 pm est saturday. the winter storm watch
is no longer in effect.

• wind chill readings...10 to 24 degrees below zero.

• timing...low winds chills until 1 pm today. blowing snow this
  afternoon then snow and blowing snow tonight into saturday
  evening.

• winds...increasing to 20 to 30 mph today with gusts of 35 to 40
  mph then continuing tonight with a little decrease for saturday.

• accumulations...accumulating snow is expected tonight through
  late saturday. accumulation by saturday evening is expected to
  range from 2 to 5 inches.

• visibilities...visibilities this afternoon into saturday evening
  may be reduced to a quarter mile at times in snow and blowing
  snow.

• temperatures...rising from around zero early this morning to the
  teens this afternoon then holding nearly steady tonight.

• impacts...hypothermia can occur rapidly in those unprepared for
  the cold. exposed skin will be susceptible to frostbite. the
  combination of snow and blowing snow will have the potential to
  significantly impact travel conditions across northern ohio and
  northwest pennsylvania.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a wind chill advisory is issued when the wind combines with the
temperature to make it feel like it is 10 degrees below zero or
colder for several hours or more. if you will be outdoors use
common sense and dress warmly...making sure that all exposed skin
is covered. if possible...avoid prolonged exposure to the cold to
prevent frostbite and hypothermia. stay tuned to weather radio
for further details or updates.

a winter weather advisory is normally issued for a variety of
winter weather conditions such as light snow, blowing snow, sleet,
freezing rain and wind chills. while the weather will be
significant, the word advisory implies that severe winter weather
is not anticipated. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for further
details or updates.

&&

$$

hazardous weather outlook
hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
400 am est fri jan 24 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-250900-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
400 am est fri jan 24 2014

...wind chill advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
...winter weather advisory in effect from 1 pm this afternoon to
10 pm est saturday...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

wind chill advisory.
winter weather advisory.

.days two through seven...saturday through thursday.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

winter weather advisory.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jan 24, 2014 6:29 am

Today: Areas of blowing snow after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 16. Wind chill values as low as -19. Windy, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 24 to 29 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow showers before 9pm, then snow showers likely between 9pm and 10pm, then snow showers with areas of blowing snow after 10pm. Low around 15. Wind chill values as low as -4. Windy, with a southwest wind 22 to 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Saturday: Snow showers likely with areas of blowing snow before 9am, then areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow showers after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Wind chill values as low as -3. Blustery, with a northwest wind 16 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Saturday Night: Areas of blowing snow before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 1. Wind chill values as low as -15. Southwest wind 13 to 16 mph.

Sunday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Southwest wind 11 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday: Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 8.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -10.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 4.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -8.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 12.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 0.

Thursday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

---

fxus61 kcle 241137
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
637 am est fri jan 24 2014

synopsis...
a series of clipper lows will move across the great lakes through
early monday then high pressure will push up the ohio valley tuesday
and wednesday.
&&

near term /through tonight/...
a few patches of low clouds continue to move quickly east across
the cleveland and mansfield areas. this cloud deck will be very
brief and hit akron canton...youngstown...and erie pa in the next
hour or so. otherwise...skies will remain clear for a few hours
and then some high clouds will begin to spread in from the northwest.
winds will be on the increase today causing any existing snow to
blow around and drift. some light snow will spread into the
extreme northwest this afternoon.
previous discussion...
drier air moving in at lower levels from the west should end any
remaining lake effect this morning. warm advection will be occurring
today which should be able to drive temps all the way up into the
mid teens. these sweltering temps should be just warm enough to
allow the wind chill advisory to end around noon.
the winds will be on the increase today and may be gusting 35 to 40
mph later today and tonight. blowing and drifting snow will thus
become a problem for motorists. based on snowfall amounts mentioned
below would prefer to go with a winter wx advisory from this
afternoon thru 10 pm sat evening for the snow and blsn.
&&

short term /saturday through sunday night/...
the next in an endless series of clipper will move thru the eastern
lakes late tonight and sat. snow accumulation looks to run about 2
to 4 inches west and 4 to 6 inches east with maybe another inch or
two of lake effect in the snowbelt late sat and sat night. the lake
effect could be more if the strong winds today thru sat break up and
shift ice on leri to open up more exposed water than expected.
conditions only briefly calm down early sun for a few hours before
snow from the next clipper is expected to spread back into the area.
accumulation with this clipper look to be lighter with maybe 1 to 3
inches occurring.
successive pushes of reinforcing arctic air will move in in the wake
of each clipper.
&&

long term /monday through thursday/...
yet another digging upper level 500 mb trough will move into the
eastern united states with another surge of arctic air. this pattern
has been brutal and it does not look like there will be any relief
in sight for some time. european model indicates this shot of arctic
expected monday into tuesday will dive south across the forecast
area...lift northeast to nova scotia and then move back west across
central ontario canada and then move back south over us again by
weeks end. talk about a one two punch. but that remains to be seen
and if that does happen...it appears the air mass will have a chance
to moderate over the east coast a bit. a look at the hemispheric
loop of the air masses drifting around the north pole indicates
there is a lot of wobble in the polar jet stream. in other
words...these cold air out breaks are affecting all of the countries
in the northern hemisphere.
low pressure is progged to move east across the forecast area monday
with a trailing cold front. or should i say bitterly cold arctic
front. this may be some of the coldest air we have seen all winter
so far as flow comes right out of the north pole. we have already
seen snowy owls south of lake erie. the polar bears may become snow
birds and head south too because it is too cold up north. as arctic
air moves into the region...enough moisture will be present for some
snow across the entire forecast area. this will transition into
some lake effect snow across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. as we saw last night...there is still quite a bit of
moisture flux taking place through the cracks in the ice on lake
erie to produce lake effect snow. albeit some moisture enhancement
from the upstream lakes also helps in this process as well.
the flow will shift from a westerly fetch monday to more of west
southwest fetch by tuesday. this should help to concentrate the lake
effect snow bands over the northeast through this period. the snow
should finally begin to let up tuesday afternoon into tuesday night
as large high pressure builds over texas and moves northeast toward
the area. this is in response to upper level ridge over the western
united states flattening out and ejecting east coast trough out
toward the ocean.
as high pressure builds northeast...we should start to see some
minor relief from the bitter cold to a slightly warmer trend but not
above freezing for any time soon.
&&

aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
a few patches of low clouds continue to move quickly east across
the cleveland and mansfield areas. this cloud deck will be very
brief and hit akron canton...youngstown...and erie pa in the next
hour or so. otherwise...skies will remain clear for a few hours
and then some high clouds will begin to spread in from the
northwest. so...expecting vfr through the morning hours until the
winds increase later this afternoon.
winds will be on the increase today causing any existing snow to
blow around and drift. the blowing and drifting of the snow will
cause visibilities to drop to mvfr today and continue into
tonight. snowfall will also become a problem with the blowing snow
helping to reduce the visibilities down to ifr at times. some light
snow will begin spread into the extreme northwest this afternoon
and then spread across the region as the day progresses in
association with the next low pressure system.
outlook...non vfr through monday night in periods of moderate
snow along with blowing snow.
&&

marine...
gale warning will be posted from about 3 pm this afternoon through
about 7 am saturday morning. winds appear they will be marginal at
35 knots on lake erie for gales so to remain collaborated with
buffalo and our friends in toronto...will hoist the warning.
winds diminish on saturday below gales and remain that way through
sunday. expecting the low pressure system to move east across the
southern great lakes and this will likely cause winds to increase
once again and reach potential gale force sunday night into monday
morning as fairly strong low level jet moves over the lake. winds
die down fairly quickly with low passage monday and become westerly
and below gales by afternoon. diminishing west to southwest flow
expected into tuesday.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 pm est
saturday for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089.
wind chill advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 pm est
saturday for paz001>003.
wind chill advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
paz001>003.
marine...gale warning from 3 pm this afternoon to 7 am est saturday for
lez061-142>149-162>169.
&&
$$
synopsis...adams
near term...lombardy/adams
short term...adams
long term...lombardy
aviation...lombardy
marine...lombardy

#toledo - #weather