Toledo weather - Wed, Jan 29, 2014

Clear sky at daybreak. At 8:00 a.m., Wundermap shows Toledo area temps ranging mostly from 0 to 2-above.

West Toledo Wundermap station temperatures:

8:00 a.m. +1
9:00 a.m. +5

Toledo Express Airport Weather:

6:52 a.m. Weather : Fair. Temperature : 0 F. Humidity : 69%. Wind Speed : SW 14 mph. Barometer : 30.16 in. Dewpoint: -8 F. Visibility : 10.00 statute miles. Wind Chill : -19 F.

8:52 am Weather : Fair. Temperature : 3 F. Humidity : 62%. Wind Speed : SW 16 mph - Gust 25 mph. Barometer : 30.17 in. Dewpoint: -7 F. Visibility : 10.00 statute miles. Wind Chill : -16 F.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jan 29, 2014 6:29 am

Today: Sunny, with a high near 14. Wind chill values as low as -17. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 8. Wind chill values as low as -9. South wind around 15 mph.

Thursday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 27. Wind chill values as low as -9. Breezy, with a south wind 16 to 21 mph.

Thursday Night: Snow likely, mainly between 2am and 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday: Snow likely before 2pm, then snow likely, possibly mixed with rain. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Snow likely, possibly mixed with rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 21.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 3.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 21.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9.

Tuesday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

---

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
358 am est wed jan 29 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-301100-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
358 am est wed jan 29 2014

...wind chill warning in effect until noon est today...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

wind chill warning.

.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
357 am est wed jan 29 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-291700-
/o.con.kcle.wc.w.0002.000000t0000z-140129t1700z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-
trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-
marion-morrow-holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-
southern erie-crawford pa-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon...
jefferson...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...medina...akron...
ravenna...warren...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...
ashland...wooster...canton...youngstown...marion...mount gilead...
millersburg...mount vernon...ashtabula...erie...edinboro...
meadville
357 am est wed jan 29 2014

...wind chill warning remains in effect until noon est today...

• winds...southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20
  mph by midday.

• temperatures...rising into the single digits above zero by noon.

• wind chill readings...20 to 25 degrees below zero will be common
  early this morning. a few locations may be as low as 30 degrees
  below zero. by noon wind chill readings will be around 10 below
  zero.

• timing...through this morning.

• impacts...hypothermia and frostbite can occur with prolonged
  exposure to the cold.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

if you will be outdoors use common sense and dress warmly...in
layers...making sure that all exposed skin is covered. avoid
prolonged exposure to the cold...if possible to prevent frostbite
and hypothermia.

a wind chill warning is issued when a strong wind will combine
with cold temperatures to create dangerously cold conditions for
exposed skin. the wind will make it feel like it is 25 degrees
below zero or colder for several hours.

stay tuned to noaa weather radio for further details or updates.

---

fxus61 kcle 291149
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
649 am est wed jan 29 2014

synopsis...
high pressure over the ohio valley and mid south will move to the
east coast thursday. a cold front will move southeast across the
area friday and stall in the vicinity while a wave of low pressure
moves along the front up the ohio valley saturday. high pressure
will move east over the region sunday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
early morning wind chill readings across the area range from 15
below to 25 below zero. coldest temperatures are in the sheltered
locations from knox county across to mahoning co and into nw pa.
these areas likely getting colder than a -25 wind chill even with
a lighter wind with suspected current temps from 10 to 20
below...based on obs from newark airport...zzv and mesonet obs.
elsewhere winds will be picking up this morning so wind chills
will still be borderline/close with the -25 criteria of a
warning...within a handful of degrees. definite improvement by
mid and late morning as temperatures rise into the single digits
above zero. by end time of warning...wind chills will be at -10 or
warmer. mostly sunny today except for a few clouds associated with
a weak trough moving across the great lakes. northern counties may
be partly cloudy for a while. eventually today temperatures are
expected to reach the teens. with the early morning update...just
tweaked next couple hours of temps/wc.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/...
fair weather again tonight and it will not be nearly as cold.
still going with lows in the single digits but a southwest flow
and a little warm air advection will keep them from going lower.
wind chill readings may flirt with the -10 threshold for an
advisory but really not concerned at this point.
clouds will be on the increase on thursday. really experience good
warm advection and highs may be getting into the upper 20s. there
is still a lot of variation in detailed solutions for this system
which will be with us thursday night and into the weekend.
moisture moves in along with some upper lift to produce some light
snow for thursday night and into friday. maybe we get an inch or
two out of it through friday. we keep the southerly flow through
thursday night and into friday with the eventual passage of the
cold front up in the air. therefore temperatures might hold fairly
steady from thursday into friday and maybe even friday
night...mid/upper 20s to near 30. so at this point precip is snow.
then with the front stalling somewhere in the vicinity and a wave
of low pressure riding up the front for saturday...a push of
warmer temperatures reaches into the area along with another push
of moisture and lift. the track of the low is somewhere across
ohio and temperatures saturday should break freezing at all
locations except possibly far nw oh. therefore precip type becomes
a forecast issue and have continued the rain mention for at least
the eastern portion of the area during the day saturday. as the
wave passes and the front slips east...cold air will filter back
into the area and remaining precipitation will change back over to
snow. uncertainty with qpf amounts too.
&&

long term /sunday through tuesday/...
a ridge will be building in on sunday with a lot of dry air and the
lake and 850 mb temperature difference will be near 12c. at this
time will keep it dry...a few flurries could be occurring first
thing sunday morning. the ridge remains across northern ohio and nw
pa through tuesday. the previous forecast started to bring in some
precipitation monday night. on the edge about that looking at the
00z model runs. will back down a little on the pops. at this time
will keep the chance pops in for tuesday into tuesday night because
of the uncertainty. this will have to be monitored by the next
shifts. none the less no major systems are expected for much of next
week. temperatures will be below normal but not excessively below.
used a blend of guidance for the temperature forecast.
&&

aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
a ridge across the ohio valley will move east later today. a weak
trof will move across eastern canada. the location of the trof and
the ridge will cause the winds to increase today and they will be
a little gusty by late morning and then at least the gusts will
decrease by evening. not much in the way of clouds...some
scattered stratocumulus is possible near eri and yng today.
outlook...non vfr possible thursday night through friday night in
light snow and then in mixed precipitation saturday into saturday night.
&&

marine...
no gale force winds are expected through early next week.
for today high pressure over the ohio valley and a weak trough
moving through eastern canada will cause the gradient to increase.
winds will be southwest and will be near 30 knots on the east end in
the warm advection. the winds will decrease some tonight as the warm
advection continues. a weak trof/front moves through on friday and
low pressure will move through the ohio valley on the weekend. still
some question on the track of the low and that will ultimately
determine the strength of the wind on the lake. none the less not
expecting the winds to be even near gale force. a ridge will be
build over the lake for early in the work week.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind chill warning until noon est today for ohz003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...wind chill warning until noon est today for paz001>003.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...oudeman
near term...oudeman
short term...oudeman
long term...kieltyka
aviation...kieltyka
marine...kieltyka

---

Toledo Hourly Forecast
8:00 am - Jan 29, 2014
temp: 2 F
wind: WSW 15 mph
wind chill: -17 F
precip chance 3 cloud cover amount 11

9:00 am - Jan 29, 2014
temp: 3 F
wind: WSW 15 mph
wind chill: -16 F
precip chance 2 cloud cover amount 11

10:00 am - Jan 29, 2014
temp: 4 F
wind: WSW 16 mph
wind chill: -15 F
precip chance 2 cloud cover amount 11

11:00 am - Jan 29, 2014
temp: 7 F
wind: WSW 16 mph
wind chill: -11 F
precip chance 2 cloud cover amount 11

12:00 pm - Jan 29, 2014
temp: 10 F
wind: WSW 17 mph
wind chill: -8 F
precip chance 2 cloud cover amount 11

1:00 pm - Jan 29, 2014
temp: 12 F
wind: WSW 18 mph
wind chill: -6 F
precip chance 2 cloud cover amount 10

2:00 pm - Jan 29, 2014
temp: 13 F
wind: WSW 20 mph
wind chill: -5 F
precip chance 2 cloud cover amount 10

3:00 pm - Jan 29, 2014
temp: 13 F
wind: WSW 20 mph
wind chill: -4 F
precip chance 2 cloud cover amount 10

4:00 pm - Jan 29, 2014
temp: 14 F
wind: WSW 18 mph
wind chill: -4 F
precip chance 2 cloud cover amount 10

5:00 pm - Jan 29, 2014
temp: 13 F
wind: WSW 17 mph
wind chill: -3 F
precip chance 1 cloud cover amount 10

6:00 pm - Jan 29, 2014
temp: 13 F
wind: SW 15 mph
wind chill: -3 F
precip chance 1 cloud cover amount 9

7:00 pm - Jan 29, 2014
temp: 12 F
wind: SW 14 mph
wind chill: -3 F
precip chance 1 cloud cover amount 9

8:00 pm - Jan 29, 2014
temp: 12 F
wind: SW 14 mph
wind chill: -4 F
precip chance 0 cloud cover amount 10

9:00 pm - Jan 29, 2014
temp: 11 F
wind: SW 14 mph
wind chill: -5 F
precip chance 0 cloud cover amount 11

10:00 pm - Jan 29, 2014
temp: 10 F
wind: SW 14 mph
wind chill: -6 F
precip chance 0 cloud cover amount 12

11:00 pm - Jan 29, 2014
temp: 9 F
wind: SSW 14 mph
wind chill: -7 F
precip chance 0 cloud cover amount 13

12:00 am - Jan 30, 2014
temp: 9 F
wind: SSW 14 mph
wind chill: -7 F
precip chance 0 cloud cover amount 14

1:00 am - Jan 30, 2014
temp: 9 F
wind: SSW 14 mph
wind chill: -8 F
precip chance 0 cloud cover amount 14

2:00 am - Jan 30, 2014
temp: 8 F
wind: SSW 14 mph
wind chill: -8 F
precip chance 0 cloud cover amount 15

3:00 am - Jan 30, 2014
temp: 8 F
wind: SSW 15 mph
wind chill: -9 F
precip chance 0 cloud cover amount 18

4:00 am - Jan 30, 2014
temp: 8 F
wind: SSW 15 mph
wind chill: -9 F
precip chance 0 cloud cover amount 21

5:00 am - Jan 30, 2014
temp: 8 F
wind: SSW 16 mph
wind chill: -9 F
precip chance 0 cloud cover amount 23

6:00 am - Jan 30, 2014
temp: 8 F
wind: SSW 16 mph
wind chill: -9 F
precip chance 0 cloud cover amount 26

7:00 am - Jan 30, 2014
temp: 9 F
wind: SSW 16 mph
wind chill: -9 F
precip chance 6 cloud cover amount 27

---

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
300 pm est wed jan 29 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-300400-
/o.new.kcle.wc.y.0009.140129t2000z-140130t1400z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-
trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-
marion-morrow-holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-
southern erie-crawford pa-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon...
jefferson...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...medina...akron...
ravenna...warren...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...
ashland...wooster...canton...youngstown...marion...mount gilead...
millersburg...mount vernon...ashtabula...erie...edinboro...
meadville
300 pm est wed jan 29 2014

...wind chill advisory in effect until 9 am est thursday...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a wind chill
advisory...which is in effect until 9 am est thursday.

• wind chill readings...will dip to -10 to -15 degrees overnight.

• winds...southwest winds 10 to 15 mph but stronger near the lakeshore.

• temperatures...overnight temperatures will dip to zero to around
  5 above.

• impacts...frostbite can occur on exposed skin with prolonged
  exposure to the cold.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

if you will be outdoors use common sense and dress warmly...making
sure that all exposed skin is covered. avoid prolonged exposure
to the cold...if possible... to prevent frostbite and hypothermia.
stay tuned to weather radio for further details or updates.

---

fxus61 kcle 292021
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
321 pm est wed jan 29 2014

synopsis...
high pressure over the ohio valley will move off the east coast
thursday. a cold front will move southeast across the area friday
and stall in the vicinity. a wave of low pressure will move along
the front across the forecast area saturday.
&&

near term /until 6 am thursday morning/...
have issued a wind chill advisory for tonight. lowered overnight
forecast a few few degrees judging from temps upstream. met was
over forecasting temps last night by an average of 5+ degrees and
believe that it is doing the same for tonights forecast. currently
wind chills hovering around the zero to minus 5 degree range. do not
expect winds to decouple overnight so wind chills should fall into
the minus 10 to minus 15 degree range overnight.
&&

short term /6 am thursday morning through saturday night/...
brief warmup as high shifts east and area comes under s-sw flow.
models in good agreement moving next cold front through the area
thursday night into friday morning. pops significantly different
between gfs and nam. gfs is forecasting 20-30 pops while nam 60-80
pops...nam seems more realistic so went likely pops thursday night
with an inch or so accumulation.
weekend forecast not so clear cut. all three models stall front
near the cwa on friday...so will continue likely pops on friday.
after that models diverge on track of the low pressure system that
will track across ohio on saturday. both the ecmwf and nam track
low across nw ohio late saturday. if this is indeed the case would
see good warmup with snow in the morning changing to rain in the
afternoon. gfs on the other hand tracks low across ne ohio which
would lead to a colder and snowier forecast. for now went with
continuity which was to split the difference. snow in the morning
with rain across the south and a rain snow mix across the north
during the afternoon. much uncertainty remains with qpf amounts
on saturday as well. nam is the outlier with around an inch of
qpf for the 12 hour period saturday...while ecmwf is around half
that. for now will stay with ecmwf solution.
&&

long term /sunday through wednesday/...
since the ecmwf is slower with the low sat into sat night not sure
if all the snow will have cleared the east part of the area by sun
so may carry a small chance in the east to cover this. high pressure
moves over the area sun night then hangs over the area thru mon
night so will hold on to dry conditions. the models start to differ
on tue and more so by wed so forecast becomes more uncertain.
however...today's 12z of the ecmwf has trended more toward the gfs.
splitting the difference in the models leads to an increasing
chance for snow tue and a good chance tue night with a chance mainly
in the east on wed.
temps will trend back below normal early next week but not like the
recent arctic outbreaks.
&&

aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
a high pressure ridge over the oh valley will keep skies mostly
clear into late tonight then high clouds will begin to increase nw
to se thru 18z over mainly the nw half of the area. winds gusting
around 25 knots...especially near leri will diminish some with
sunset then increase again by midday wed. the higher wind gusts
could produce some areas of blsn.
outlook...non vfr possible thursday night through friday night in
light snow and then in mixed precipitation saturday into saturday
night.
&&

marine...
winds look to mainly run 20 to 30 knots into fri then diminish. a
cold front will move into the lake during the day fri and stall
until a low moves along the front near the lake sat and pulls the
front se of the lake. winds should line up out of the nw sat night
into sun but only at about 10 to 20 knots. high pressure moves over
the lake sun night and mon to provide light and changeable winds.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind chill advisory until 9 am est thursday for ohz003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...wind chill advisory until 9 am est thursday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jan 29, 2014 9:03 am

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 8. Wind chill values as low as -9. South wind around 15 mph.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 27. Wind chill values as low as -9. Breezy, with a south wind 16 to 21 mph.

Thursday Night: Snow likely, mainly between 1am and 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Breezy, with a southwest wind 14 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Friday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday: Snow likely before 1pm, then snow likely, possibly mixed with rain. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 21.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 3.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 21.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9.

Tuesday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday: Cloudy, with a high near 20.

---

fzus51 kcle 292014
nshcle
nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
314 pm est wed jan 29 2014
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
lez142>149-300330-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-
on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny-
314 pm est wed jan 29 2014

tonight...southwest winds to 30 knots becoming south 15 to 25
knots. mostly clear.

thursday...south winds 15 to 25 knots. mostly sunny.

thursday night...south winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. a
chance of snow in the evening...then snow likely overnight.

friday...southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. a chance of snow in the
morning...then snow likely in the afternoon.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for saturday through monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 32 degrees...off cleveland 33
degrees and off erie 32 degrees.
$$

#toledo - #weather