Toledo weather - Thu, Jan 30, 2014

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jan 30, 2014 12:24 am

Overnight: Clear, with a low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -8. South wind around 11 mph.

Thursday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 25. Wind chill values as low as -11. Breezy, with a south wind 14 to 21 mph.

Thursday Night: Snow likely, mainly between 9pm and 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Breezy, with a southwest wind 13 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Friday: Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Southwest wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 19. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Snow likely before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 22.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 6.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 24.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10.

Tuesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

---

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
1010 pm est wed jan 29 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-301115-
/o.con.kcle.wc.y.0009.000000t0000z-140130t1400z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-
trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-
marion-morrow-holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-
southern erie-crawford pa-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon...
jefferson...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...medina...akron...
ravenna...warren...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...
ashland...wooster...canton...youngstown...marion...mount gilead...
millersburg...mount vernon...ashtabula...erie...edinboro...
meadville
1010 pm est wed jan 29 2014

...wind chill advisory remains in effect until 9 am est
thursday...

• wind chill readings...will dip to -10 to -15 degrees after
  midnight. some portions of northeast ohio and northwest
  pennsylvania may see wind chills as low as -20 degrees.

• winds...southwest winds will range from 5 to 10 mph overnight. portions
  of northwest ohio and areas near the lakeshore will see winds
  increase overnight to 10 to 20 mph.

• temperatures...overnight temperatures will fall to around 5
  degrees in northwest ohio...with temperatures as low as -3
  degrees in inland northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

• impacts...frostbite can occur on exposed skin with prolonged
  exposure to the cold.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

if you will be outdoors use common sense and dress warmly...
making sure that all exposed skin is covered. avoid prolonged
exposure to the cold...if possible... to prevent frostbite and
hypothermia. stay tuned to weather radio for further details or
updates.

---

fxus61 kcle 300415
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1115 pm est wed jan 29 2014

synopsis...
high pressure over the ohio valley will move off the east coast
thursday. a cold front will move southeast across the area friday
and stall in the vicinity. a wave of low pressure will move along
the front across the forecast area saturday.
&&

near term /until 6 am thursday morning/...
lowered wind speeds a little more for the early part of tonight
with many locations in the 5 to 10 mph range this evening. the
surface high will build to the east overnight which will result in
winds starting to come back up after 1 or 2 am...especially in the
west and along the lakeshore. given the lighter winds in the
east...tweaked lows down a degree or two. depending on the wind
speeds...the wind chill advisory may be marginal in northwest
ohio with wind chill values only falling to around -10 degrees.
elsewhere wind chill values will overnight to -10 to -15 degrees
with some portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania
dipping as low as -20 degrees. temperatures will recover into the
mid 20s through the day on thursday...bringing some welcomed
relief from the cold.
previous discussion...have issued a wind chill advisory for
tonight. lowered overnight forecast a few few degrees judging from
temps upstream. met was over forecasting temps last night by an
average of 5+ degrees and believe that it is doing the same for
tonights forecast. currently wind chills hovering around the zero
to minus 5 degree range. do not expect winds to decouple overnight
so wind chills should fall into the minus 10 to minus 15 degree
range overnight.
&&

short term /6 am thursday morning through saturday night/...
brief warm up as high shifts east and area comes under s-sw flow.
models in good agreement moving next cold front through the area
thursday night into friday morning. pops significantly different
between gfs and nam. gfs is forecasting 20-30 pops while nam 60-80
pops...nam seems more realistic so went likely pops thursday night
with an inch or so accumulation.
weekend forecast not so clear cut. all three models stall front
near the cwa on friday...so will continue likely pops on friday.
after that models diverge on track of the low pressure system that
will track across ohio on saturday. both the ecmwf and nam track
low across nw ohio late saturday. if this is indeed the case would
see good warm up with snow in the morning changing to rain in the
afternoon. gfs on the other hand tracks low across ne ohio which
would lead to a colder and snowier forecast. for now went with
continuity which was to split the difference. snow in the morning
with rain across the south and a rain snow mix across the north
during the afternoon. much uncertainty remains with qpf amounts
on saturday as well. nam is the outlier with around an inch of
qpf for the 12 hour period saturday...while ecmwf is around half
that. for now will stay with ecmwf solution.
&&

long term /sunday through wednesday/...
since the ecmwf is slower with the low sat into sat night not sure
if all the snow will have cleared the east part of the area by sun
so may carry a small chance in the east to cover this. high pressure
moves over the area sun night then hangs over the area thru mon
night so will hold on to dry conditions. the models start to differ
on tue and more so by wed so forecast becomes more uncertain.
however...today's 12z of the ecmwf has trended more toward the gfs.
splitting the difference in the models leads to an increasing
chance for snow tue and a good chance tue night with a chance mainly
in the east on wed.
temps will trend back below normal early next week but not like the
recent arctic outbreaks.
&&

aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
high pressure and dry stable airmass will continue overnight
across nrn ohio and nwrn pa. expect vfr/clear skies to persist
through much of thursday as well. do expect winds to increase
quickly through the morning reaching sustained 15 to 20 knots with
gusts 25 to 30 kts from the ssw. a cold front will move into nwrn
ohio after 00z so vfr conditions will come to an end thursday
evening. brought in mvfr cigs and vsbys after 02z kfdy and ktol
and brought to kcle by 04z. also added wind shear to ktol kfdy
keri and kcle for the overnight/early morning.
outlook...non vfr possible thursday evening/night through friday
night in light snow and then in mixed precipitation saturday into
saturday night.
&&

marine...
winds look to mainly run 20 to 30 knots into fri then diminish. a
cold front will move into the lake during the day fri and stall
until a low moves along the front near the lake sat and pulls the
front se of the lake. winds should line up out of the nw sat night
into sun but only at about 10 to 20 knots. high pressure moves over
the lake sun night and mon to provide light and changeable winds.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind chill advisory until 9 am est thursday for ohz003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...wind chill advisory until 9 am est thursday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jan 30, 2014 6:42 am

Today: Increasing clouds, with a high near 28. Wind chill values as low as -2. Breezy, with a south wind 16 to 22 mph.

Tonight: A chance of snow, mainly between 7pm and 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Breezy, with a southwest wind 17 to 22 mph decreasing to 11 to 16 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday: Snow likely, mainly after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 31. West wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Friday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Calm wind becoming northeast around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday: Snow likely before 1pm, then rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 38. East wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: Snow likely before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 23.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 6.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 21.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9.

Tuesday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 25. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

---

fxus61 kcle 301145
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
645 am est thu jan 30 2014

synopsis...
high pressure over the ohio valley will move off the east coast
today. a weak cold front will move southeast across the area
early friday and stall in the vicinity. a wave of low pressure
will move along the front across the forecast area saturday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
just made minor changes to the sky cover wording and adjusted the
hourly temperatures. the wind chill advisory area still looks
good. some areas not in the advisory may still briefly touch -10f
but a wind chill advisory is only needed if the wind chill is at
or below -10f for more then a few hours. once the clouds move into
nw ohio this afternoon they will become thick quickly.
previous discussion...
temperatures didn't get as cold most locations and the winds have
only slowly increased. will be able to cancel the wind chill
advisory over much of the area. even in the area where the advisory
continued wind chill readings will just be meeting criteria.
otherwise clouds will be on the increase...mainly this afternoon and
with a southwest wind went toward the warmer guidance for the highs.
some blowing and drifting snow will occur.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through sunday night/...
models backed down on the pops for tonight because of scant moisture
and a very weak trof/front.
on friday the chances of snow increases as the low moves up toward
northwest ohio. the models are agreeing on the track of the low. the
best chance for snow will be friday afternoon and into friday night.
on saturday with the track of the low the eastern portion of the
forecast area could get into a dry period. at this time kept it
likely pops. temperatures will warm enough on saturday that the
precipitation will be rain in the afternoon if it occurs. there will
be a brief period where some freezing rain may occur. this threat
will have to be watched. it will be mainly early saturday morning.
some snow could come back in saturday night as the front moves
quickly east. will go dry sunday as the ridge builds in. went toward
the warmer side of guidance for friday and saturday...it all seems
reasonable with the track of the low.
&&

long term /monday through wednesday/...
overall upper level pattern has changed. we are out of the rut and
in a new beginning. however...we are not out of the woods yet.
upper level broad ridge will gradually try to push into the forecast
area from the west by tuesday and then off the east coast on
wednesday. meanwhile...progressive pattern will allow a broad upper
level trough to swing east toward the region by the end of the week.
high pressure at the surface will build east across the area monday
night into tuesday morning. this high will begin to rapidly weaken
by tuesday afternoon as it moves east.
in response to the upper level trough...a panhandle hook low
pressure system will develop and move southeast into the deep south
and then track northeast across kentucky and west virginia by
tuesday night.
a warm front will lift north across the forecast area tuesday and
tuesday night. arctic high pressure over northern alberta will send
more cold air into the region and collide with the warm front over
the forecast area. this is where the forecast will get tricky. as
the storm deepens in response to the upper level trough becoming
negatively tilted...we can only hope that the arctic air remains
cold enough and deep enough to over come the warm air advection to
keep the precipitation in the form of all snow.
if the warm air advection riding over the cold air mass becomes
strong enough...then copious amounts of moisture will stream north
into the region from the gulf coast in advance of the low pressure
system. as this happens...there is the potential that the cold air
depth may be just shallow enough to support freezing rain and
possibly lots of it. latest model soundings indicate sounding
temperatures get to just a bit above freezing for a period of time
across the southern tier counties an then cool down below freezing
tuesday afternoon into tuesday night. north of this area
temperatures remain well below freezing aloft.
for now...until we get a better handle on the situation and the
track of the low along with the depth of the cold air...will keep
mention of all snow for now. however...either way...be on the look
out for the possibility of a major winter storm across the forecast
area...especially across the south. it will be either a significant
snow or freezing rain event. stay tuned.
as mentioned above...temperatures through this forecast period are
going to be rather tricky. based on information above...will trend
toward the colder temperatures as arctic air has been fairly deep
with these air masses coming south.
&&

aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
quiet weather on the short term horizon but will change in the
west this afternoon. high pressure continues to dominate the area
with clear skies and fair weather. a weak warm front will move
east with very limited moisture and spread some snow over toledo
and findlay. it appears this moisture will dry up by the time it
reaches the other sites so will keep them dry. not expecting
ceilings and visibilities to drop below vfr through the entire
period. other problem will be increase in winds out of the
southwest to 15 to 30 knots today and then diminish tonight as
cold front approaches from the west.
outlook...non vfr possible friday and friday night in light snow
and then in mixed precipitation saturday into saturday night.
&&

marine...
winds will be on the increase later this afternoon as low level jet
at 925 mb reaches around 35 to 40 knots over the lake. will hold off
on issuing a gale warning since it looks like winds should stay just
below thresholds. winds will diminish by friday morning and then
become light and variable by saturday morning. a warm front will
lift north across the lake by sunday morning and keep winds light
and variable until low pressure moves by to the east sunday
afternoon. winds will pick up out of the west sunday afternoon into
sunday evening. otherwise...light winds expected for monday.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind chill advisory until 9 am est this morning for ohz027-028-
036-037-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...kieltyka
near term...kieltyka
short term...kieltyka
long term...lombardy
aviation...lombardy
marine...lombardy

---

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
452 am est thu jan 30 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-029>033-038-089-paz001>003-311000-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-holmes-ashtabula lakeshore-
northern erie-southern erie-crawford pa-
452 am est thu jan 30 2014

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.
winds will be gusty especially this afternoon and that will cause
some blowing and drifting snow.

.days two through seven...friday through wednesday.

on saturday morning before the snow changes to rain there could be
a brief period of freezing rain.

a strong weather system will affect the forecast area tuesday and
wednesday. depending on the track of the low...that will
determine the precipitation type...whether it is will be all snow
or a mix of wintry precipitation.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

Forecast.io Toledo forecast as of 8:58 a.m.

Today, Thu, Jan 30, 2014 : 26 and 9.
Fri, Jan 31 : 28 and 22.
Sat, Feb 1 : 34 and 26 (high temp forecast was 33 an hour ago. NWS predicts 38).
Sun, Feb 2 : 25 and 10.
Mon, Feb 3 : 15 and 2.
Tue, Feb 4 : 24 and 4.
Wed, Feb 5 : 26 and 16.
Thu, Feb 6 : 13 and -1.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jan 30, 2014 5:02 pm

Tonight: A chance of light snow, mainly between 8pm and 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday: A chance of snow, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Southwest wind 5 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday Night: Snow. Low around 25. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming east after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Saturday: Snow before 11am, then a chance of snow and freezing rain between 11am and 2pm, then rain after 2pm. High near 36. Southeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: Rain before 8pm, then snow likely. Low around 20. Southwest wind around 11 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Sunday: A slight chance of snow before 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 23. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 4.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 19.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4.

Tuesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 1. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 11.

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