Toledo Weather - Sat, Feb 1, 2014

Toledo area temps at 7:00 am range from 29 to 32 degrees.

Mesoscale Discussion issued for areas just to the north and west of Lucas County. Includes parts of extreme northwest Ohio, all of Lennawee County, and the northwest half of Monroe County. The region includes northern Indiana through southern and southeast Michigan.

md 0049 concerning heavy snow for nrn indiana...s central and se lower mi

mesoscale discussion 0049
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0614 am cst sat feb 01 2014

areas affected...nrn indiana...s central and se lower mi

concerning...heavy snow

valid 011214z - 011715z

summary...a band of moderate-heavy snowfall with rates near 1 inch
per hour will continue to develop newd across nrn indiana and lower
mi this morning...and persist into early afternoon. the zone of
freezing rain to the s will shrink as warming occurs from se-nw
across indiana/oh this morning.

discussion...a well-developed band of snow is spreading newd from ne
il into nw indiana...and this trend will continue enewd over
srn/sern lower mi through the remainder of the morning. the snow
band is being supported by strong low-level waa and moisture
transport on the nose of a 45-50 kt swly llj...and this regime will
shift enewd through the morning in tandem with surface cyclone now
approaching central mo. a deep sub-freezing isothermal layer and
the influx of low-midlevel moisture will support aoa 1 inch per hour
snowfall rates. s of the heavier snow band...warming low-level
temperatures will result in a quickly shrinking zone of freezing
rain and a sharper transition zone from freezing/rain to snow by
late morning.

..thompson.. 02/01/2014

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...dtx...iwx...grr...ind...lot...

lat...lon 42088313 41678394 40668618 40558703 40748746 41158752
41568746 41838691 42158605 42698436 43018311 43088256
42848241 42088313

---

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
641 am est sat feb 1 2014

...some freezing rain or freezing drizzle may occur this morning
before it changes over to rain.

.low pressure will move up through northwest ohio today. until
that happens snow will occur early this morning and then switch
over to rain as temperatures warm aloft. in the switch over to
rain some freezing rain or freezing drizzle may occur until the
temperatures at the surface warm above freezing.

ohz003-006>009-017>019-011700-
/o.con.kcle.ww.y.0008.000000t0000z-140201t1700z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk
641 am est sat feb 1 2014

...winter weather advisory remains in effect until noon est
today...

• accumulations...generally an inch or less of snow and a light
  coating of ice is possible.

• timing...through mid or late morning.

• winds...southeast 5 to 10 mph.

• impacts...snow and ice accumulations can make roads slick...
  requiring lower speeds and greater distances between vehicles
  while driving.

• temperatures...rising above freezing this morning.

• visibilities...around 2 miles in snow and higher in rain.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter weather advisory is normally issued for a variety of
winter weather conditions such as light snow... blowing snow...
sleet... freezing rain and wind chills. while the weather will be
significant... the word advisory implies that severe winter
weather is not anticipated. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for
further details or updates.

---

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
657 am est sat feb 1 2014

ohz003-006>009-017>019-021200-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-
657 am est sat feb 1 2014

...winter weather advisory in effect until noon est today...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and
northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

winter weather advisory.

rainfall amounts this afternoon and tonight should be mainly
under an inch. much of the rain should be absorbed into the
snow...however...some ponding of water on roads could occur. some
movement of ice in the rivers may occur and some minor ice jams
could develop. people who live near rivers and streams should be
cautious.

.days two through seven...sunday through friday.

a strong weather system will affect the forecast area tuesday
afternoon through wednesday. depending on the track of the
low...that will determine the precipitation type...whether it is
will be all snow or a wintry mix of precipitation.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Feb 1, 2014 7:13 am

Today: Snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 10am, then rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain between 10am and noon, then rain after noon. High near 40. East wind 5 to 9 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tonight: Rain and snow, possibly mixed with sleet before 2am, then a chance of snow. Low around 22. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of around an inch possible.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 26. West wind around 11 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 8. Wind chill values as low as zero. Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 19. West wind 3 to 5 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 7.

Tuesday: A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday Night: Snow. Low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 14.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 0.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 15.

page created: Feb 01, 2014 - 7:45 a.m. EST

---

fxus61 kcle 011201
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
701 am est sat feb 1 2014

synopsis...
a wave of low pressure will move north along a front that was just
to the west of the area and bring warmer air and moisture across
the forecast area today. a trailing cold front will move across the
region tonight and colder air will return. high pressure will
build into the ohio valley for sunday through monday night. a
strong weather system will affect the region tuesday into
wednesday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
expanded winter weather advisory for light freezing rain for much
of the forecast area as temperatures around 32f and roads
temperatures are cold. temperatures will warm above freezing this morning.
otherwise just minor changes to the timing and wording.
previous discussion...
several issues for this forecast. will a winter weather advisory
for freezing rain be needed and is a flood watch needed because of
the rain.
the cause of the precipitation early this morning is warm advection.
later today the cause will be low pressure moving across northwest
ohio through this evening. this will eventually place much of
eastern ohio in the dry sector. early this morning the precipitation
is light and temperatures are slowly warming aloft. temperatures
are slowly warming. northwest ohio will be the last place for
temperatures at the surface to rise above freezing so went with a
winter weather advisory for a mix of wintry precipitation.
elsewhere just a chance for some freezing rain or freezing
drizzle. will monitor this in case the freezing precipitation
becomes widespread.
qpf will be highest almost an inch over northwest ohio and along
the lake shore. at this time will assume that most of the rain
will be absorbed by the snow. some ice movement could occur on
some of the rivers...at this time not expecting any major ice
jams. because of this will not issue a flood watch. will be
monitoring the rivers and issue any advisories for nuisance
flooding or ice jam flooding as needed. this will be a very short
lived warm up.
went on the warmer side with the highs mainly over the eastern two
thirds of the area with a strong southwest wind developing.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through tuesday night/...
will change the rain over to snow tonight with a chance of sleet
as that happens. not expecting that much snow with this.
some lingering snow early sunday morning in the east and then
drying out as the ridge builds in.
the next weather system will be for tuesday afternoon into
wednesday. at this time will keep the forecast mainly snow as the
track of the low is still in question. at this time the area that
has the best chance to mix is the southeast portion of the region.
&&

long term /wednesday through friday/...
some big differences in the upper level pattern these days compared
to all of last month. at this time we are seeing nearly zonal flow
across the country with a bit of a trough axis over the extreme
western portions of canada and slight ridging over eastern canada.
however...all is not peaceful as small perturbations are racing east
across the northern tier country of the lower 48. one perturbation
will initially start out as an extensive trough axis over the
rockies by monday night and then flatten out by the time it reaches
our forecast area and moves east.
the vigorous rocky mountain trough will cause cyclogenesis to occur
over texas and move northeast toward the region by wednesday. the
low will then begin to move east of the area wednesday night into
thursday. synoptic stratiform snow will transition over to
convective snow shower activity in combination with the wrap around
moisture and lake effect moisture for wednesday afternoon into
wednesday night.
eventually flow will become more westerly and send the remaining
precipitation up the shore line to northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania for some lingering lake effect. elsewhere...expecting
fair weather to return once again. wednesday night through friday.
eventually flow becomes more southerly and this will bring an end to
the precipitation in the northeast as well.
whenever there is a warm front nearby...temperatures can always
become tricky. as low pressure system approaches from the
southwest...a warm front will lift north and likely become
stationary across the southern tier of the forecast area or just
south of there. still remains to be seen if this feature lifts
further north toward the lake. once again...we are still monitoring
this storm for potential major impacts from either snow or possibly
a mix of snow...sleet...and freezing rain wednesday morning. once
cold air advection takes place on the back side of the low pressure
system...all of the precipitation will switch back over to snow.
expecting to see cold air advection return and this will cause
temperatures to plummet again but not to the depths we have seen in
january as we approach the end of next week.
&&

aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
little movement of the warm front just to our south occurred
overnight and this allowed temperatures to stay at or just below
freezing across much of the area. expecting possibility that some
locations will see a bit of freezing rain before changing to all
rain this morning. accounted for this in each of the tafs.
expecting rain to move northeast into the area for the remainder
of the day and then change over to snow this evening. winds will
gradually come around to southwest...west...then northwest across
the area today and tonight. ceilings will drop into ifr but may
improve at times to mvfr at times.
outlook...non vfr probable continuing ne oh/nw pa into sunday.
non vfr developing for tuesday into wednesday.
&&

marine...
winds will pick up a bit today out of the southwest but i think we
should be okay as far as gales go. otherwise...expecting tranquil
wind conditions on the lake.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
ohz020>023-027>033-036>038-047.
winter weather advisory until noon est today for ohz003-
006>009-017>019.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...kieltyka
near term...kieltyka
short term...kieltyka
long term...lombardy
aviation...lombardy
marine...lombardy

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Toledo Express Airport

Feb 1, 2014 6:52 am
Weather : Fog/Mist
Temperature : 29 F
Humidity : 96%
Wind Speed : ESE 5 mph
Barometer : 30.03 in
Dewpoint: 28 F
Visibility : 5.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 24 F

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Forecast.io high and low temp predictions as of Sat aft, Feb 1, 2014:

Today, Feb 1, 2014: 36 and 29
Sun, Feb 2: 30 and 18
Mon, Feb 3: 18 and 8
Tue, Feb 4: 24 and 7
Wed, Feb 5: 26 and 11
Thu, Feb 6: 14 and -1
Fri, Feb 7: 14 and -6
Sat, Feb 8: 31 and 15

#toledo - #weather