Toledo Weather - Wed, Feb 2014

I got up at 7:09 a.m, looked out the window at top of the steps, and saw a junco near our neighbor's garage door. In our backyard, at least a dozen juncos tried in vain to find food.

I knew the juncos would be in major panic mode because of the nighttime snowfall, and when that happens, they arrive earlier than normal, but I did not expect them to already be in the yard prior to 7:10 a.m. I needed to be outside at least 15 minutes earlier.

I dressed quickly and bolted outside. I first measured the snowfall. At 7:10 a.m., I measured 3.25 inches of new snow that fell since just before Midnight. That gave a total of 4.25 inches of snow from this system, since the snow began around 7:00 p.m. last evening.

The snow intensity at 7:10 a.m. was at least heavy. It really poured.

I shoveled snow as fast as I could, clearing paths and feeding areas for the ground birds. I scattered millet, whole kernel corn for the squirrels, and a little cracked corn. Yesterday afternoon, I topped off the two small thistle socks and the snowman cage, which contains sunflower oilers.

I was back inside at 7:24 a.m.

At 7:30 a.m., I counted at least 50 SCJU in our backyard at all the shoveled feeding areas. Also present were a few juncos and at least two cardinals.

Report at 7:37 a.m.:

• at least 40 SCJU
• 10 to 12 AMGO
• snow intensity is at least mod-hvy

Tough to see the thistle socks because of the low light because of the snow intensity, I think.

7:41 a.m.: Fox Squirrel now in the backyard.

---

md 0075 concerning heavy snow for far ne ind...sern lower mi and far nw oh

mesoscale discussion 0075
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0439 am cst wed feb 05 2014

areas affected...far ne ind...sern lower mi and far nw oh

concerning...heavy snow

valid 051039z - 051445z

summary...heavy snowfall will likely continue across nrn
ind...developing newd across sern lower mi over the next few hours.
snowfall rates should approach 1 inch per hour in the more intense
bands.

discussion...latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low
over the upper ms valley with a powerful 100 to 120 kt mid-level jet
streak extending newd from the mid ms valley into the upper oh
valley. lift is being enhanced in the left exit region of the
mid-level jet over nrn ind and srn lower mi where a swath of
precipitation is ongoing. in addition...low-level easterly flow is
maximized across nrn ind and srn lower mi on the north side of a low
in the oh valley. this speed max is likely enhancing isentropic lift
and will aid the development of heavy snow. as the swath of snowfall
moves newd this morning...snowfall rates will likely approach 1 inch
per hour in srn lower mi enewd to near detroit over the next 2 to 4
hours.

..broyles.. 02/05/2014

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...dtx...iwx...grr...

lat...lon 41898318 41138480 41328539 42028563 42768510 43228289
42718254 42298269 41898318

---

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
321 am est wed feb 5 2014

ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047-051630-
/o.con.kcle.ws.w.0003.000000t0000z-140205t2200z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-
crawford-richland-ashland-marion-morrow-knox-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...
upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...ashland...marion...
mount gilead...mount vernon
321 am est wed feb 5 2014

...winter storm warning remains in effect until 5 pm est this
afternoon...

• accumulations...additional 1 to 3 inches.

• timing...areas of moderate snow through noon tapering to
  flurries by late afternoon.

• winds...north 10 to 20 mph with gust to 25 mph.

• temperatures...will range from the low to mid 20s.

• visibilities...occasionally dropping to a quarter of a mile.

• impacts...snow covered roads will make driving slow and
  hazardous. some blowing and drifting of snow could make travel
  difficult...especially on east to west oriented roads.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

you should use extreme caution if travel is unavoidable. stay
tuned to noaa weather radio or your favorite weather source for
further details or updates from the national weather service.

---

TOL:
Feb 5, 2014 6:52 am
Weather : Snow Freezing Fog
Temperature : 20 F
Humidity : 92%
Wind Speed : NNE 16 mph - Gust 24 mph
Barometer : 29.83 in
Dewpoint: 18 F
Visibility : 0.50 statute miles
Wind Chill : 6 F

(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Feb 5, 2014 6:53 am
Weather : Heavy Snow Freezing Fog
Temperature : 21 F
Humidity : 88%
Wind Speed : NNE 17 mph - Gust 29 mph
Barometer : 29.85 in
Dewpoint: 18 F
Visibility : 0.25 statute miles
Wind Chill : 7 F

(near Lambertville)
Feb 5, 2014 7:15 am
Weather : Snow
Temperature : 23 F
Humidity : 86%
Wind Speed : N 14 mph - Gust 26 mph
Barometer : NA in
Dewpoint: 19 F
Visibility : 0.50 statute miles
Wind Chill : 11 F

West Toledo Wundermap station reports 21 degrees at 7:42 a.m. Toledo temps are mostly around 20 to 22 degrees.

Will continue updates in the notes or microblog posts.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Feb 5, 2014 6:22 am

Today: Snow, mainly before 2pm. High near 26. North wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light after midnight.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 14. Wind chill values as low as -5. West wind 5 to 11 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -5. Wind chill values as low as -18. Southwest wind 7 to 9 mph.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 11. Southwest wind 7 to 11 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -1.

Saturday: A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 19. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 11. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 16.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 0.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 17.

---

fxus61 kcle 051110
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
609 am est wed feb 5 2014

synopsis...
low pressure over west virginia will move northeast off the new
england coast by this evening. high pressure over the northern
plains will build up the ohio valley thursday and friday then lift
north into canada saturday to allow a low to move across the
southeast sunday. high pressure from the northern plains again
spreads over the ohio valley monday into tuesday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm wednesday evening/...
dry slot has attempted to punch into the area. however...forcing
from upper system moving into the area and jet max is providing good
lift. this is causing bands of snow/mixed precip to develop over and
just sw of the cwa and as the bands move nne the precip fills in to
become widespread. this area of upward energy will work ene across
the lake erie area through noon. expect to see locally heavy bursts
of snow that can drop an inch or so of accumulation in an hour. due
to the patchy nature of the heavier bands overall accumulation into
early afternoon can vary from only an inch to locally 4 inches of
new snowfall. thus keeping the winter storm warning going seems
warranted. the areas further to the south that get the lesser
amounts of snow accumulation will be the area that sees the most
sleet and fzra.
as colder air is drawn se into the area the rest of the
morning...where the sleet and fzra has been occurring over the se
half of the area...the precip should change back to all snow.
ne winds turning north at about 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 mph
may also add some blowing and drifting to the snow.
&&

short term /6 pm wednesday evening through saturday night/...
drier air around 850 mb gets pulled se over much of the area tonight
and should help to lessen the snow potential to sct snow showers
over mainly the snowbelt area. will stay with ongoing forecast of an
inch or less of additional accumulation. as the leading part of the
next batch of arctic air is pulled down into the area...lows tonight
should drop into the single digits for most places.
weak upper energy slowly works across the lakes to near leri by
early fri. at the same time...high pressure at the surface will be
building into oh from the west. could see some nuisance lake effect
shsn linger thu into thu night in the snowbelt...especially for erie
co pa but think any accumulation will be light.
the latest models runs don't appear to have the high getting far
enough out of the area for good moisture to return until daytime sat
so will back down pops later fri night then ramp up the pops sat
into sat night for the next system. it looks like the next system
will end up being more of an east coast problem so think the
snowfall here will be relatively light...influenced mainly by the
dynamics of the upper trough versus the dynamics of the surface low.
with the arctic air in place...temps will stay well below normal
thru fri night with some moderation to be a little closer to normal
for sat. the coldest temps look to occur thu night with readings
around zero for most of the area...with the west more likely to have
lows a little below zero versus the east. wind chill readings thu
night will likely drop into a 10 to 20 below zero range for much of
the area so a wind chill advisory will eventually be needed.
&&

long term /sunday through tuesday/...
long term begins sunday with both the gfs and ecmwf showing a short
wave trof across the lower great lakes region with a surface low
moving through the upper ohio valley. sided with the higher ops of
the gfsmos guidance with 40 to 50 pops west to east across the area
vs the lower hpc guidance. monday the short wave and most of the
moisture is gone. at the surface high pressure will be building
across the western lakes...upper midwest and ohio valley. will hold
onto a low chance pop for the snowbelt for anything off the lake but
for the rest of the area will go dry. tuesday high pressure will
continue across the area. models point to moisture either south or
southwest of the area however given the high will continue dry and
allow for a little sun as well. wednesday models show an upper trof
developing across the nations mid section with high pressure east of
the region. feeling wednesday may be a transition day toward
increasing clouds and pops but for now will go with slight chance
pops and a mix of clouds and sun.
&&

aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
the snow will taper off wednesday morning from southwest to
northeast as the surface lows begins to shift east. it will be
difficult to time the back edge of the snow as it gets over taken
by the dry slot wednesday morning as there will likely be some
convective redevelopment until the deeper moisture and upward
motion is totally east. still think there will be enough warm air
aloft that some sleet or even freezing rain/freezing drizzle
possible at kcak and kyng wednesday morning. the east northeast
wind will come around to the north and northwest and some blowing
snow will continue until late. ifr visibilities will likely
linger much of the day especially across ne oh/nw pa.
outlook...non vfr at times ne oh/nw pa on thursday. non vfr
redeveloping again on saturday continuing into sunday.
&&

marine...
low pressure will be over southeast ohio this morning. the low will
continue northeast today. thursday through saturday...high pressure
will build from the central plains into the ohio valley. sunday
another low will move through the ohio valley. northeast winds will
back to northwest late today and tonight. winds will back to west
early thursday and then southwest thursday afternoon. southwest flow
will continue then through friday night. saturday winds will back to
southeast ahead of the approaching low...backing further through
northeast saturday night to northwest sunday. no headlines are
expected.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm warning until 5 pm est this afternoon for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...winter storm warning until 5 pm est this afternoon for
paz001>003.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...adams
near term...adams
short term...adams
long term...tk
aviation...kosarik
marine...tk

---

fxus63 kdtx 051156
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
656 am est wed feb 5 2014

aviation...
//discussion...
solid lifr conditions in snow will be in place over the terminal
corridor through mid morning except for ifr restriction at mbs on
the edge of the heavier portion of the area. low pressure will move
quickly from southern ohio to the atlantic coast leading to a
weakening trend in snow over our area during the morning and then
coming to and end by mid afternoon. ceiling and visibility will
become vfr toward sunset under moderate northwest wind which will
persist through sunrise thursday, although ceiling below 5000 feet
is likely by mid thursday morning.
for dtw... a burst of snow between 12z and 15z will produce an
additional 1-2 inches of accumulation before diminishing for total
accumulation of 3 to 5 inches from last evening through noon today.
gusty north winds will also contribute to some blowing and drifting.
//dtw threshold threats...
* high confidence in ceiling below 5000 feet today.
* high confidence in snow as precipitation type.
* high confidence in 1/2sm visibility during peak of snowfall.
&&

prev discussion...issued 351 am est wed feb 5 2014
short term... today and tonight
the winter weather advisory will remain in effect through the
morning considering the highest snowfall rates of the system so far
will be ongoing during the morning commute. overall, not too much
change in total accumulation outside of some shuffling among time
periods and about an extra inch added through saginaw, tuscola, and
sanilac counties before the snow diminishes around noon.
after somewhat of a slow start and some dry slot disruption, the
deformation zone of the system will take over for the rest of the
event. satellite imagery and radar composite indicate a healthy
amount of texture to the clouds and snow pattern along the interior
edge of the mid level deformation zone. this is indicative of
elevated instability that shows up better in the 00z model data and
forecast soundings compared to earlier runs. that area of enhanced
lift is also producing results in observed liquid equivalent precip
in iowa, missouri, and illinois where 00z-06z totals of 0.1-0.2
were common with a peak near 0.3. these results are handled best
by the gfs which calls for about an additional 0.25-0.30 over our
advisory area as the deformation zone moves directly over se
michigan, although the other models are in the neighborhood.
microphysical properties might be a touch better in the new
forecast sounding depictions but snow ratio remains a limiting
factor for accumulation with sounding derived numbers at 8-10:1
through the morning. the difference is that the deformation zone
forcing and lift is turning out to be on the stronger side of
expectations and the dgz is deeper than in earlier forecast runs,
so accumulation is leaned toward a slightly higher 10-12:1 ratio.
the result will be a 3-5 inch total across the advisory area, and
2-4 to the north through the tri cities and thumb, with the main
burst occurring during the peak of the morning commute. there will
also be just enough gust component to the northerly wind to notice
some added blowing and drifting.
light snow may linger into the early afternoon but the pattern will
diminish considerably compared to the morning hours. this will be
primarily due to subsidence/short wave ridging on the heels of the
mid level wave as the system rapidly translates to the atlantic
coast by mid afternoon. dry conditions at that point will extend
through tonight with a modest decrease in clouds during the evening.
expect a mix of stratocu and high clouds of varying coverage will
prevent a temperature free fall in weak low level cold advection
overnight but lows of zero to 5 above look easily reachable with
fresh snow cover all areas.
long term...
the entrance region of the consolidated upper level jet stream and
broad area of confluence aloft will work into the eastern united
states thursday and friday. through continuity arguments...this
forcing aloft will pull a sprawling surface anticyclone through
basically the eastern one half of the u.s. and even into the
atlantic. the great lakes will remain in closer reach to cyclonic
flow over canada which will place the region on the northern edge
of the jet. therefore westerly gradient flow will be a player
through the end of the week...which has some ramifications.
the importance of the westerly flow will be felt already on thursday
and thursday night as colder air will wrap around the southern rim
of lake michigan. this will cause the coldest temperatures of the
cwa to take place from washtenaw/wayne southward...something that
can be common in these scenarios. highs thursday are really expected
to struggle...only reaching the teens. will need to watch the
forecasted winds for thursday night...and determine whether or not
current values are a little high. current wind chills thursday
night are forecasted to fall into the -15 to -20 degree range...wind
chill advisories could be needed. the other weather of note for
thursday is the model depictions for some widespread very light qpf
across lower michigan. models are suggesting the northern edge of
the jet will also streamline/organize a maximum of cyclonic vorticity
that would impact the state during the afternoon.
overall...thermodynamic profile supports nothing of deep moisture
but does show steep boundary layer lapse rates driven diurnally.
supersaturation wrt ice will lead to snowflakes. attm...given a
convective layer of only 2 kft...strong capping inversion and lack
of deep moisture cannot call for anything but a chance of flurries.
this not to say localized convergence banding won't make it
interesting in a few locations.
the base of the inversion is expected to lower some 1000 ft by
friday which will really cut into the potential to generate flurries
friday afternoon. continued to go with no weather mention. off of
the cold morning temperatures...highs will again struggle to reach
the teens for many areas...potentially some single digits values
south and west of detroit.
the deterministic solutions are showing some uncertainty this
weekend with regards to the amplitude of the longwave trough that
will roll through the midwest saturday night. the pattern as a whole
is rather messy with plenty of noise. one thing that will drive the
pattern this weekend will be some phasing of a northern canada
trough straight down into faster jet flow over the plains states.
models do agree that height falls and trough amplification will take
place over the great lakes saturday night. this amplifying system
along with some better large scale moisture will be the next
potential for widespread precipitation.
marine...
winds will turn to the north early today as a surface low tracks
across the ohio valley and towards the east coast. gusts will be
highest over the southern portion of lake huron...reaching up around
30 knots. winds will become fairly light again tonight as the low
pulls away from the area.
increased west to southwest winds are then expected thursday through
friday as low pressure drops down through northern ontario and
hudson bay...and a strong dome of high pressure builds over the
central plains and ohio valley. much colder air will also filter
into the region during this timeframe...but extensive ice cover will
help limit winds between 20 and 30 knots over lake huron...with
lower values over lake st clair and western lake erie.
&&

dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory...miz060-miz061-miz062-miz063-miz068-miz069-
miz070-miz075-miz076-miz082-miz083...until noon wednesday.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
mi waters of lake erie...none.
&&
$$
aviation.....bt
short term...bt
long term....cb
marine.......cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit (all lower case).

---

At 7:10 a.m., I measured 3.25 inches of new snow that fell since Midnight, giving a total of 4.25 inches of snow.

The snowfall intensity around 7:00 a.m. was at least heavy. It really poured, and the snow continues to rain down at 7:50 a.m.

At 5:39 a.m., the SPC issued a mesoscale discussion that mostly concerned southeast Michigan for heavy snowfal.

The Detroit/Pontiac NWS still predicts a total snowfall of 3 to 5 inches for its coverage area.

Toledo forecast:

Today: Snow, mainly before 2pm. High near 26. North wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

---

By 8:30 a.m. in West Toledo, the snow intensity had decreased considerably. It's still snowing, just not as intense as it had been.

At 8:40 a.m., I measured the snow, and amazingly, 2.75 inches of new snow had fallen since 7:10 a.m.

Nearly 3 inches of snow in 90 minutes!!

Total snowfall now of 7.0 inches.

#toledo - #weather