Toledo Weather - Tue, Feb 11, 2014

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
546 am est tue feb 11 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-121100-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
546 am est tue feb 11 2014

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

wind chill readings will average between zero and 10 below zero at
times early this morning and again tonight.

.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.

wind chill readings between zero and 10 below zero are possible
again wednesday morning.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

Toledo Express Airport
Feb 11, 2014 6:52 am
Weather : Mostly Cloudy
Temperature : 4 F
Humidity : 73%
Wind Speed : NW 6 mph
Barometer : 30.44 in
Dewpoint: -3 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : -7 F

(near Lambertville)
Feb 11, 2014 7:35 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 1 F
Humidity : 78%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.45 in
Dewpoint: -4 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Feb 11, 2014 3:52 am

Today: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 11. Wind chill values as low as -2. Calm wind.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around -10. Light east wind.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 21. Wind chill values as low as -9. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 0. Calm wind.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 27. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 25. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 8.

Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 21. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17.

Washington's Birthday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

---

fxus61 kcle 111156
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
656 am est tue feb 11 2014

synopsis...
arctic high pressure centered over the mississippi valley will move
east of the area on wednesday. the bitter cold air over the area
will begin to moderate the second half of the week. a cold front is
due on friday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
updated some of the hourly temps/dew points this morning otherwise
no significant changes to the early morning update.
early morning discussion...
a wedge of clearing spread across all but extreme ne oh/nw pa
overnight. clouds are spreading back from lake michigan this
morning and will likely continue to do so until winds begin to
back this afternoon and subsidence thins out the clouds. flurries
will persist mainly in the snowbelt but a flake or two possible
where the clouds return. very cold today with the arctic air in
place.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through friday night/...
the surface high will shift east of the area tonight. this opens the
possibility for a period of light/variable winds...and the potential
to radiate down to some really cold low temps. some of the models
indicate a wind shift to east and southeast with a persistent 4-6
knot breeze in which case there would not be much chance to decouple
and get really cold. will trend the forecast toward the cold side
given the history of this air mass but will not forecast the coldest
possible (which would be negative teens) since there is a chance
that we may not bottom out.
will be between systems much of wednesday and thursday. a weakening
cold front will drop across the western great lakes on wednesday.
ridging over the eastern great lakes will strengthen wednesday into
thursday in response to the east coast storm so the front will wash
out. we will not really see any direct impact except an increase in
high clouds by the end of the day wednesday.
the temperature forecast is tricky wednesday into thursday
especially at night. with ridging lingering between the systems...
there remains the potential to get cold at night with radiational
cooling and the lingering arctic and and deep snow cover. the
forecast will be much colder than most of the guidance especially
at the inland spots that typically get cold.

the next front will arrive on friday. the gfs takes a stronger
surface low across the central great lakes than most of the other
models. there likely will just be a period of snow/light snow as the
system crosses the area.
&&

long term /saturday through monday/...
a ridge will build overhead on saturday with some morning sun
possible before clouds increase ahead of the next system during the
afternoon. have refined pops to only have a low chance of snow
showers near lake erie in the snowbelt for most of the day with
chances of snow returning to nw ohio by late afternoon. the next
round of snow on saturday night will be the result of another
clipper system moving through the region. long range models do show
some spread with the track of the low with the gem offering the best
consensus across central ohio. this would bring a widespread light
snowfall to all areas saturday night.
a shift in the pattern could be on the way for early next week as
warm advection develops ahead of a fast moving trough sliding east
across the country. looks like temperatures will warm into the 30s
with precipitation transitioning over to rain. the ecmwf does bring
another push of cold air in behind the low while the gfs looks more
zonal. even the colder ecmwf suggests the cold snap could be brief
with some moderation in temperatures next week.
&&

aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
stratus is expanding across nrn ohio/nw pa early this morning.
ceilings have ranged from 2500-4000 feet over the last few hours but
ceilings are starting to lower and ifr stratus is even starting to
develop in areas where skies have been clear. visibilities have also
dropped to 3-5 miles in clear areas and will carry a few hours of
ifr at mfd/cak with mvfr elsewhere. cle/yng/eri all continue to
report flurries and this will continue at times into early this
afternoon. the airmass will continue to dry out today with moist
cloud layer becoming increasingly shallow. clouds should gradually
scatter out at most sites between 17-00z...although times will
likely need adjusting. there is a chance that clouds may linger near
lake erie into tonight.
outlook...non-vfr may redevelop late thursday and continue into
early saturday. non vfr in light snow will be possible fri
afternoon-evening and return saturday night.
&&

marine...
high pressure builds over lake erie today then to new england on
wednesday. winds will be 10 knots or less through thursday...finally
starting to increase out of the south on thursday night as a clipper
moves into the central great lakes. this system will pull a cold
front across the lake behind it on friday with northwest winds
increasing to 15 to 25 knots. winds will decrease fairly quickly on
saturday as a ridge builds overhead.
there is some uncertainty with the track of the next low pressure
system moving through the lower great lakes on saturday night. if
the low passes north of lake erie then winds will be out of the
southwest or east to northeast if the low passes south of the lake.
long range model guidance lends better support to the more southern
track of the system so trended the forecast in that direction.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

---

fzus51 kcle 110906
nshcle
nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
406 am est tue feb 11 2014
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
lez142>149-111515-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-
on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny-
406 am est tue feb 11 2014

today...west winds less than 10 knots becoming northwest. mostly
cloudy with scattered snow showers.

tonight...light and variable winds. mostly clear.

wednesday...southeast winds less than 10 knots. sunny.

wednesday night...southeast winds less than 10 knots. partly
cloudy.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for thursday through saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees...off cleveland 33
degrees and off erie 33 degrees.

---

Forecast.io Toledo hi-lo temp predictions:

• Tue, Feb 11 : 12 and 1
• Wed, Feb 12 : 19 and -5
• Thu, Feb 13 : 28 and 5
• Fri, Feb 14 : 31 and 18
• Sat, Feb 15 : 25 and 6
• Sun, Feb 16 : 25 and 10
• Mon, Feb 17 : 33 and 11
• Tue, Feb 18 : 33 and 23

---

fxus61 kcle 111753
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1253 pm est tue feb 11 2014

synopsis...
arctic high pressure centered over the mississippi valley will move
east of the area on wednesday. the bitter cold air over the area
will begin to moderate the second half of the week. a cold front is
due on friday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
tweaked afternoon temps up a couple of degrees and adjusted the
cloud cover.
early morning discussion...
a wedge of clearing spread across all but extreme ne oh/nw pa
overnight. clouds are spreading back from lake michigan this
morning and will likely continue to do so until winds begin to
back this afternoon and subsidence thins out the clouds. flurries
will persist mainly in the snowbelt but a flake or two possible
where the clouds return. very cold today with the arctic air in
place.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through friday night/...
the surface high will shift east of the area tonight. this opens the
possibility for a period of light/variable winds...and the potential
to radiate down to some really cold low temps. some of the models
indicate a wind shift to east and southeast with a persistent 4-6
knot breeze in which case there would not be much chance to decouple
and get really cold. will trend the forecast toward the cold side
given the history of this air mass but will not forecast the coldest
possible (which would be negative teens) since there is a chance
that we may not bottom out.
will be between systems much of wednesday and thursday. a weakening
cold front will drop across the western great lakes on wednesday.
ridging over the eastern great lakes will strengthen wednesday into
thursday in response to the east coast storm so the front will wash
out. we will not really see any direct impact except an increase in
high clouds by the end of the day wednesday.
the temperature forecast is tricky wednesday into thursday
especially at night. with ridging lingering between the systems...
there remains the potential to get cold at night with radiational
cooling and the lingering arctic and and deep snow cover. the
forecast will be much colder than most of the guidance especially
at the inland spots that typically get cold.

the next front will arrive on friday. the gfs takes a stronger
surface low across the central great lakes than most of the other
models. there likely will just be a period of snow/light snow as the
system crosses the area.
&&

long term /saturday through monday/...
a ridge will build overhead on saturday with some morning sun
possible before clouds increase ahead of the next system during the
afternoon. have refined pops to only have a low chance of snow
showers near lake erie in the snowbelt for most of the day with
chances of snow returning to nw ohio by late afternoon. the next
round of snow on saturday night will be the result of another
clipper system moving through the region. long range models do show
some spread with the track of the low with the gem offering the best
consensus across central ohio. this would bring a widespread light
snowfall to all areas saturday night.
a shift in the pattern could be on the way for early next week as
warm advection develops ahead of a fast moving trough sliding east
across the country. looks like temperatures will warm into the 30s
with precipitation transitioning over to rain. the ecmwf does bring
another push of cold air in behind the low while the gfs looks more
zonal. even the colder ecmwf suggests the cold snap could be brief
with some moderation in temperatures next week.
&&

aviation /18z tuesday through saturday/...
a ridge is over the forecast area. a weak trof will move across
the region this afternoon. some snow showers will occur mainly in
the snow belt area. the clouds and visibilities are tough to
forecast. moisture is caught in a low level inversion and the
models are having a tough time handling this. as the flow becomes
southeast tonight will forecast the clouds to dissipate. the hrrr
model is trying to hint at some fog developing. at this time will
not mention fog at the taf sites...however...some patchy fog
visibility a mile or less could develop during the night in
typically foggy locations.
outlook...non-vfr in clouds and or visibilities will develop
thursday evening and continue off and on through saturday night.
&&

marine...
high pressure builds over lake erie today then to new england on
wednesday. winds will be 10 knots or less through thursday...finally
starting to increase out of the south on thursday night as a clipper
moves into the central great lakes. this system will pull a cold
front across the lake behind it on friday with northwest winds
increasing to 15 to 25 knots. winds will decrease fairly quickly on
saturday as a ridge builds overhead.
there is some uncertainty with the track of the next low pressure
system moving through the lower great lakes on saturday night. if
the low passes north of lake erie then winds will be out of the
southwest or east to northeast if the low passes south of the lake.
long range model guidance lends better support to the more southern
track of the system so trended the forecast in that direction.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

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