Toledo Weather - Sun, Feb 16, 2014

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
415 am est sun feb 16 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-170915-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
415 am est sun feb 16 2014

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.days two through seven...monday through saturday.

an area of low pressure will track across ohio monday afternoon
into monday night and should bring a period of snowfall to
northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania. indications are that 3
to 5 inches of snow will be possible which would be enough to
issue advisories. however there is still some uncertainty in the
track of the low with a wintry mix possible from mount vernon to
youngstown.

the region will see a warming trend tuesday through thursday.
temperatures may top 50 degrees by thursday. the biggest concern
with the warming...snowmelt...and any potential rainfall will be
for ice jam flooding. other nuisance flooding will also be
possible.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Toledo Express Airport
Feb 16, 2014 9:52 am
Weather : Light Snow Fog/Mist
Temperature : 17 F
Humidity : 88%
Wind Speed : NW 5 mph
Barometer : 30.00 in
Dewpoint: 14 F
Visibility : 2.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 9 F

Toledo Executive Airport
(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Feb 16, 2014 9:53 am
Weather : Light Snow Fog/Mist
Temperature : 19 F
Humidity : 84%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.00 in
Dewpoint: 15 F
Visibility : 0.75 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport
(near Lambertville)
Feb 16, 2014 10:15 am
Weather : Light Snow
Temperature : 21 F
Humidity : 80%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.01 in
Dewpoint: 16 F
Visibility : 1.00 statute miles

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Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Feb 16, 2014 9:16 am

Today: Snow likely before 3pm, then a chance of flurries after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. North wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight: A chance of flurries before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -2. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming east after midnight.

Washington's Birthday: Snow, mainly after 2pm. High near 26. Wind chill values as low as -4. Southeast wind 6 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Monday Night: Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 20. Southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. Southwest wind 8 to 13 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 39.

Wednesday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: Rain. High near 48. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 41.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37.

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fxus61 kcle 161415
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
915 am est sun feb 16 2014

synopsis...
a clipper system will move across the area today. the next area of
low pressure will track across ohio monday afternoon into monday
night. a stronger storm system will arrive late thursday into
friday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
low pressure now centered over lima with with height falls into
northeast ohio. see no reason why snow will diminish so bumped
pops to categorical across the entire forecast area...gradually
ending from nw late this afternoon.
previous discussion...
another clipper will move across the region today. there is even
less moisture for it to utilize so any snowfall will be light.
most locations will only see a couple tenths with isolated totals
as high as an inch and a half. the heavier snow...if you can call
it that...will be across the southern half of the area.
temperatures today will be similar to yesterdays.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through wednesday night/...
quiet weather tonight as high pressure slides across the region in
the wake of the clipper. the next storm system will be a bit
stronger as we attempt to phase a northern jet disturbance with
another in the southern jet stream. this should set the stage for
an area of low pressure to move across ohio. still some uncertainty
about its exact track but it appears that models are attempting to
keep it a bit further south which would allow for snow for most of
the county warning area. once again the south and southeastern
portion of the county warning area will attempt to have a brief
wintry mix which may cut into snowfall amounts. at this point it
appears that most locations will flirt with advisory criteria of 3
to 5 inches. since it should be a wet snow we do not anticipate
any locations to get to warning criteria.
this storm will be east of the area by tuesday afternoon with a
period of warm advection pattern setting up for tuesday night
through wednesday night. there could be just enough lift to
generate some snow flurries across the eastern half of the region
tuesday night into wednesday.
after a cool day on monday with highs in the upper 20s the region
will attempt to warm into the middle and upper 30s for tuesday into
wednesday. tuesdays highs will all hinge on the amount of
sunshine for the afternoon hours. a few locations on wednesday
afternoon may surpass 40 degrees.
&&

long term /thursday through saturday/...
precipitation chances still in 70-80 percent range for thursday
although there are minor differences in the models. overall
agreement is for a good push of warm air ahead of low pressure that
will track northeast across the great lakes. still differences on
how strong the low is. thunder still a possibility...but not
confident enough to mention in the forecast just yet. will wiggle
temperatures a tad warmer...still going near 50. flooding
possibility still a concern especially in regards to ice jams. too
many differences yet in qpf values. cold front goes through thursday
night. flow is fairly zonal behind it and not too much of a drop in
temperatures is expected. another system will be in the vicinity by
the weekend.
&&

aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
area of light snow expected to expand over the area this morning
and last for few hours into the early afternoon. this is slower
than previous timing but similar in intensity and duration. this
is with a weak clipper moving across the ohio valley. conditions
will lower to mvfr and have patches/areas of ifr. conditions
improve again later this afternoon. vfr tonight with a mid deck
entering the picture toward 12z monday with the next system. winds
light...but will move around the dial...southerly to nw this
afternoon and finally ene tonight.
outlook...non-vfr developing monday afternoon lasting into
tuesday. non-ifr likely redeveloping wed night or thursday.
&&

marine...
quiet on the lake through monday. a clipper today and another on
monday will do little more than shift the light winds around. the
more significant period of weather will come for the middle of the
week when southerly flow and a warm-up will take place. winds come
around to a southerly direction monday. they will briefly go
westerly on wednesday in the wake of a cold front. on thursday
expect southerly flow as low pressure moves northeast to the central
great lakes and brings a push of warm air over the lake. the cold
front will follow thursday night with westerly winds to follow. as
of now not seeing any gale force winds through the system on
thursday.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

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fzus51 kcle 161455
nshcle
nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
955 am est sun feb 16 2014
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
lez142>149-162115-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-
on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny-
955 am est sun feb 16 2014

this afternoon...south winds 10 knots or less becoming north.
snow... ending from west to east.

tonight...north winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. mostly
cloudy in the evening...then becoming partly cloudy. a chance of
flurries in the evening.

monday...east winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast 5 to
15 knots. becoming cloudy. a chance of snow in the afternoon.

monday night...southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest.
snow.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for tuesday through thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees...off cleveland 33
degrees and off erie 32 degrees.

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Forecast.io Toledo hi-lo-temp predictions as of 10:30 a.m., Feb 16, 2014:

• today, Sun, Feb 16 : 25 and 11
• Mon, Feb 17 : 27 and 4
• Tue, Feb 18 : 36 and 21
• Wed, Feb 19 : 34 and 28
• Thu, Feb 20 : 49 and 28
• Fri, Feb 21 : 42 and 31
• Sat, Feb 22 : 43 and 29
• Sun, Feb 23 : 34 and 25

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