Toledo Weather - Mon, Feb 17, 2014

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
323 am est mon feb 17 2014

.an area of low pressure will develop over the central plains
today and then move northeast across western ohio and over lake
erie tonight. snow associated with this low will spread rapidly
east across the area this evening and then taper off from west to
east late tonight. some sleet or even some freezing rain could
briefly mix with the snow this evening south of the u.s. 30
corridor. very gusty winds will accompany the snow and cause
blowing and drifting.

ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>031-036>038-047-171630-
/o.new.kcle.ww.y.0010.140217t2200z-140218t0900z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-
crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...
upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...ashland...
wooster...marion...mount gilead...millersburg...mount vernon
323 am est mon feb 17 2014

...winter weather advisory in effect from 5 pm this afternoon to
4 am est tuesday...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter
weather advisory which is in effect from 5 pm this afternoon to 4
am est tuesday.

• accumulations...4 to 5 inches. a brief period of sleet or
  freezing rain is possible at the southern end of the area.

• timing...the snow will spread across the area early this
  evening. the snow should reach the i-75 corridor around 5 pm.

• winds...southeast winds increasing to 15 to 30 mph this
  afternoon and then becoming southwest during the evening. gusts
  to 40 mph are likely after midnight with locally higher gusts
  closer to lake erie.

• impacts...snow accumulation can make roads slick...requiring
  lower speeds and greater distances between vehicles while
  driving.

• temperatures...upper 20s falling into the lower 20s.

• visibilities...less than one half mile at times.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter weather advisory is normally issued for a variety of
winter weather conditions such as light snow, blowing snow,
sleet, freezing rain and wind chills. while the weather will be
significant, the word advisory implies that severe winter weather
is not anticipated. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for further
details or updates.

---

flus41 kcle 171027
hwocle
hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
527 am est mon feb 17 2014
ohz010>014-020>023-032-033-089-paz001>003-181030-
lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-ashtabula inland-medina-summit-portage-
trumbull-stark-mahoning-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-
southern erie-crawford pa-
527 am est mon feb 17 2014

..winter weather advisory in effect from 7 pm this evening to 7 am
est tuesday...
this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

day one...today and tonight.
please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.
winter weather advisory.

days two through seven...tuesday through sunday.
please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.
winter weather advisory.
a warming trend is expected the second half of the week.
temperatures may top 50 degrees on thursday. rain combined with
snow melt may produce flooding...especially thursday into friday.
if heavy rain were to occur... significant flooding is possible.
ice jam flooding is also possible especially in the typical spots.
this would include the mouths of rivers emptying into lake erie.
ice would likely back up on the rivers due to ice cover on lake
erie.

spotter information statement...
spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

Toledo Express Airport
Feb 17, 2014 4:52 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 4 F
Humidity : 88%
Wind Speed : E 5 mph
Barometer : 30.36 in
Dewpoint: 1 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport
(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Feb 17, 2014 4:53 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : -1 F
Humidity : 82%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.38 in
Dewpoint: -5 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

(near Lambertville)
Feb 17, 2014 5:15 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 5 F
Humidity : 85%
Wind Speed : E 3 mph
Barometer : 30.38 in
Dewpoint: 1 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : -1 F

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Feb 17, 2014 3:11 am

Washington's Birthday: Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Wind chill values as low as zero. Light east wind increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Tonight: Snow, mainly before 3am. Low around 21. Breezy, with a south wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west 16 to 21 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Southwest wind 13 to 17 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. Breezy, with a southwest wind 17 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 36. West wind 13 to 15 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Thursday: Snow likely before 1pm, then rain. High near 45. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday Night: Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: A slight chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Breezy.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Saturday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29.

---

fxus61 kcle 170844
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
344 am est mon feb 17 2014

synopsis...
high pressure over the eastern great lakes will shift to the east
coast today. this will allow low pressure over the central plains
to move northeast to western ohio this evening. this low will move
across lake erie tonight dragging a cold front across the local area.
another low will pass well to the north on tuesday night and drag another
front across the region. another very strong area of low pressure
will affect the area toward the end of the week.
&&

near term /through tonight/...
most of the area has cleared overnight allowing temps to plunge
into the single digits. the traditional cool spots will make a run
toward zero by daybreak. expect clouds to increase today as low
pressure takes shape over ok. the models now fairly similar in
moving this low into western ohio by evening. snow associated with
the low will arrive by the end of the today period in the west.
the snow will then spread across the remainder of the area this
evening reaching nw pa by 9 pm at the latest. per coordination
with neighboring offices have put up advisories for the entire
area. snowfall totals are expected to meet only minimal criteria
but increasing winds will add to the misery with a lot of blowing
and drifting. all of the guidance continues to show a brief window
for mixed precip along and south of the u.s. 30 corridor this
evening. main concern is for sleet but it is possible that some
freezing rain could occur across southern knox county. models also
show a dry slot moving in behind the low after midnight. this will
dry out the mid levels and later shifts will have to watch for
freezing drizzle for an hour or two before the wrap around snow
arrives. for the most part expecting a 6 to 9 hour window of snow.
by daybreak tuesday the western 2/3 to 3/4 of the area will be
dry. strong se flow will develop later today. locations near lake
erie across nw pa could end up with gusts near wind advisory
criteria this evening. have highlighted this potential in the
winter weather advisory. local schemes and rules of thumb
consistently showing around 4 inches of accum most areas. expect
maybe slightly higher amounts in far nw oh and nw pa. used a blend
of guidance temps.
&&

short term /tuesday through thursday night/...
an active pattern will continue during the period. a clipper will
move across the region tuesday night but moisture will be limited.
not expecting much if any precipitation but a brief window of
lake effect snow is possible wednesday over nw pa. the big story
later in the period is the expected warm up. low pressure will
lift over the western great lakes by the end of the period. strong
warm air advection will begin late wednesday and continue on
tuesday. surface dewpoints will climb into the 40s so good snow
melting will occur. rain associated with the low will arrive on
thursday with greatest amounts expected over nw oh. already have
high precip chances going and see no need for significant changes.
will continue to mention the flooding potential in the hazardous
weather outlook. expect that flood watches will eventually be
needed. have used a blend of guidance temps through the period.
&&

long term /friday through sunday/...
models are in decent agreement as a strong storm system pulls away
from the region on friday. after that the timing of jet energy
moving through the fast flow varies with each model. so with that
said we have made very few changes to the extended and will
hopefully see some model consistency over the next few days.
the one thing that is similar in the models is a cold front should
cross the area at some point saturday into sunday. this will cause
temperatures to drop back into the upper 20s to lower 30s. just not
sure which day/days will be the coldest.
&&

aviation /06z monday through friday/...
a ridge will move west to east across the region tonight and
monday morning. the lake effect clouds/flurries were continuing to
decrease. the big question is will some fog form. highs clouds
will be moving in overnight especially for the southern portion of
the forecast area. this may inhibit the fog some. mentioned fog in
the tafs especially close to the lakeshore and in the mansfield
area. in fact some stratus could come in off of lake erie into
toledo in the easterly flow. for monday any fog will burn off
quickly. the clouds will continue to thicken and lower. some
question how quickly the snow will come in. at this time leaning
toward the gfs timing which is early evening for nw ohio. the
snow should spread east quickly. the heaviest snow should be over
nw ohio with the low tracking across nw ohio. the southeast areas
could see a mix as plenty of warm air will come up in the strong
low level southwest flow.
outlook...non-vfr late monday night lasting into tuesday. non-vfr
likely redeveloping thursday and thursday night.
&&

marine...
active weather week expected with a couple strong storm systems
crossing the ice covered lake. as the low passes late tonight into
tuesday southwest to west winds will increase significantly. at this
point have kept 30 knots but will not be surprised if we end up
needing a gale warning after midnight into tuesday morning.
high pressure will then briefly ridge over the lake before the next
cold front crosses lake erie on wednesday. the next storm system
will move into the central great lakes thursday night with
increased southerly winds. this storm will deepen as it moves
northeast across ontario on friday with a cold front racing across
the region. strong cold advection with the westerly winds on friday
will again attempt to reach gale levels.
the strong winds and warmer temperatures should allow the ice to
begin to move around...especially thursday into friday.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
tuesday for ohz010>014-020>023-032-033-089.
winter weather advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
tuesday for ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>031-036>038-047.
pa...winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
tuesday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

---

fzus51 kcle 170843
nshcle
nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
343 am est mon feb 17 2014
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
lez142>146-171515-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
avon point to willowick oh-
343 am est mon feb 17 2014

today...east winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast and
increasing to 10 to 20 knots. partly sunny this morning...then
cloudy with a chance of snow this afternoon.

tonight...southeast winds 10 to 20 knots becoming west and
increasing to 30 knots. snow.

tuesday...west winds to 30 knots becoming southwest and diminishing
to 15 to 20 knots. mostly sunny. a chance of snow in the morning.

tuesday night...southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. partly cloudy.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for wednesday through friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees...off cleveland 33
degrees and off erie 32 degrees.
$$
lez147>149-171515-
willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-
conneaut oh to ripley ny-
343 am est mon feb 17 2014

today...east winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots.
mostly sunny this morning...then becoming mostly cloudy.

tonight...southeast winds to 30 knots becoming south. snow.

tuesday...west winds to 30 knots becoming southwest. snow likely in
the morning.

tuesday night...south winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest.
partly cloudy.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for wednesday through friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees...off cleveland 33
degrees and off erie 32 degrees.

---

forecast.io at 8am for toledo:

Now: Mostly Cloudy 4 F - ENE at 5 mph

Next 24 Hours: Windy starting tonight, continuing until tomorrow morning, with heavy snow (3–5 in) starting this afternoon, continuing until tomorrow morning.

Next 7 Days: Mixed precipitation off-and-on throughout the week; temperatures rising to 51° on Thursday.

---

http://wunderground.com/wundermap

9:19 a.m. temps:

---

http://www.toledoblade.com/local/2014/02/17/More-snow-today-is-fuel-for-record.html

Toledo’s snowiest-winter was 73.1-inches in 1977-78.

Sunday’s [Feb 16, 2014] snowfall added 0.9 inches at Toledo Express Airport, bringing the total since Dec. 1 to 67.8 inches, according to the National Weather Service.

February snowfall to date is 16.4 inches, or 10.7 inches above normal, the weather service said.

Three to five inches more are forecast for today.

Meanwhile, daytime temperatures will rise above freezing Tuesday through Friday; 37 on Tuesday and Wednesday’s forecast and 44 on Thursday, when heavy rain is expected. Friday’s high is forecast to be 35.

About one inch of new snow at TOL yest. I measured 1.5 inches here at home in West Toledo.

---

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
912 am est mon feb 17 2014

.an area of low pressure will develop over the central plains
today and then move northeast across western ohio and over lake
erie tonight. snow associated with this low will spread rapidly
east across the area this evening and then taper off from west to
east late tonight. sleet or freezing rain may mix with the snow
this evening south of the u.s. 30 corridor.

ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>031-036>038-047-172215-
/o.con.kcle.ww.y.0010.140217t2200z-140218t0900z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-
crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...
upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...ashland...
wooster...marion...mount gilead...millersburg...mount vernon
912 am est mon feb 17 2014

...winter weather advisory remains in effect from 5 pm this
afternoon to 4 am est tuesday...

• accumulations...4 to 5 inches. a brief period of sleet or
  freezing rain is possible at the southern end of the area.

• timing...the snow will spread across the area early this
  evening. the snow should reach the i-75 corridor around 5 pm.

• winds...southeast winds increasing to 15 to 30 mph this
  afternoon and then becoming southwest during the evening.
  gusts to 40 mph are likely after midnight with locally higher
  gusts closer to lake erie.

• impacts...snow accumulation can make roads slick...requiring
  lower speeds and greater distances between vehicles while
  driving.

• temperatures...upper 20s falling into the lower 20s.

• visibilities...less than one half mile at times.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter weather advisory is normally issued for a variety of
winter weather conditions such as light snow... blowing snow...
sleet... freezing rain and wind chills. while the weather will be
significant... the word advisory implies that severe winter
weather is not anticipated. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for
further details or updates.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: Feb 17, 2014 9:06 am

Washington's Birthday: Snow likely, mainly after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 28. East wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tonight: Snow, mainly before 4am. Low around 21. Breezy, with a south wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west 16 to 21 mph. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Tuesday: A slight chance of snow before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Southwest wind 13 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. Breezy, with a southwest wind 18 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 36. West wind 14 to 16 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Thursday: Snow likely between 8am and 2pm, then rain. High near 45. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday Night: Rain and snow. Low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday: Rain and snow showers likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Saturday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

---

Forecast.io Toledo hi-lo temp predictions as of 12:15 p.m.:

Now: Overcast 17 F - E at 9 mph

Next 24 Hours: Windy starting tonight, continuing until tomorrow morning, with heavy snow (3–4 in) starting later this afternoon, continuing until tomorrow morning.

Next 7 Days: Mixed precipitation off-and-on throughout the week; temperatures rising to 50° on Thursday.

• today, Mon, Feb 17 : 30 and 2
• Tue, Feb 18 : 36 and 22
• Wed, Feb 19 : 35 and 28
• Thu, Feb 20 : 50 and 27
• Fri, Feb 21 : 49 and 30
• Sat, Feb 22 : 40 and 25
• Sun, Feb 23 : 35 and 27
• Mon, Feb 24 : 29 and 21

---

A little west of us.

md 0110 concerning heavy snow for southern wi/northern il to west-central/northern indiana and southern lower mi

mesoscale discussion 0110
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1130 am cst mon feb 17 2014

areas affected...southern wi/northern il to west-central/northern
indiana and southern lower mi

concerning...heavy snow

valid 171730z - 172230z

summary...moderate to locally heavy snow will continue to develop
eastward this afternoon across the southern half of wi...much of
northern/parts of central il including the chicago metro area...into
northern/west-central indiana and southwest lower mi. with the
heaviest snow...rates will exceed 1+ in/hr for a couple hour
duration. additionally...some thunderstorms and mixed winter
precipitation including some sleet/freezing rain and snow will be
possible particularly across north-central/east-central il into
northwest indiana.

discussion...a progressive/modestly amplifying shortwave trough
centered over the lower mo river valley late this morning will
continue steadily eastward through the afternoon. progression of
this shortwave trough and associated dpva/warm advection and upper
jet exit region induced divergence will lead to a general eastward
spread of relatively strong uvv across the region this
afternoon...particularly across southern wi/lower mi and the
northern halves of il/indiana. similar to 12z observed
soundings...regional forecast soundings generally reflect ample uvv
coincident with a saturated mid-level dendritic layer supportive of
moderate/locally heavier snow for a multi-hour
duration...particularly given influences of weak elevated
instability especially across parts of il/indiana.

the 12z observed sounding from lincoln il sampled around 60 j/kg of
mucape based above 700 mb...with nearly 700 j/kg of mucape per 12z
springfield mo. especially given the proximity of the upper dry slot
as per water vapor imagery...available instability will continue to
support thundersnow and/or mixed precipitation in association with
thunderstorms such has been reported recently at champaign il /kcmi/
and is otherwise evident in radar/lightning network data across
central/parts of northeast il this morning.

..guyer.. 02/17/2014

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...iwx...grr...ind...grb...lot...ilx...mkx...dvn...
arx...

lat...lon 40489074 41919066 43709094 44178939 43838810 42988573
42048474 40868573 40168601 39138822 40098940 40489074

---

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
305 pm est mon feb 17 2014

ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>031-036>038-047-180415-
/o.con.kcle.ww.y.0010.140217t2200z-140218t0900z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-
crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...
upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...ashland...
wooster...marion...mount gilead...millersburg...mount vernon
305 pm est mon feb 17 2014

...winter weather advisory remains in effect until 4 am est
tuesday...

• accumulations...4 to 6 inches. some sleet or freezing rain is
  possible for the southern part of the area.

• timing...the snow will rapidly spread across the area early this
  evening then taper off late tonight.

• winds...southeast winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph and then
  becoming southwest by late evening. gusts to 35 mph are likely
  after midnight with locally higher gusts closer to lake erie.

• impacts...snow accumulation can make roads slick...requiring
  lower speeds and greater distances between vehicles while
  driving.

• temperatures...steady in the mid to upper 20s early then
  falling into the lower 20s by the end of the night.

• visibilities...less than one half mile at times.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter weather advisory is normally issued for a variety of
winter weather conditions such as light snow... blowing snow...
sleet... freezing rain and wind chills. while the weather will be
significant... the word advisory implies that severe winter
weather is not anticipated. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for
further details or updates.

---

md 0111 concerning heavy snow for northern indiana to central/southern lower mi and northern oh

mesoscale discussion 0111
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0357 pm cst mon feb 17 2014

areas affected...northern indiana to central/southern lower mi and
northern oh

concerning...heavy snow

valid 172157z - 180300z

summary...moderate to locally heavy snow will continue to spread
eastward across northern indiana and central/southern lower mi to
northwest oh. snowfall rates of 1+ in/hr will occur with the
heaviest snow. this may include the potential for
thundersnow...primarily in the short-term this afternoon across
northern indiana/far southwest lower mi.

discussion...a progressive shortwave trough/mid-upper jet streak
centered over the middle ms river valley at mid-afternoon will
continue to make a steady eastward progression through this
evening...with associated uvv to overspread much of indiana/southern
half of lower mi and oh. especially when considering a trend toward
colder cloud tops per ir satellite immediately ahead of the vort
max/dry slot...ample uvv coincident with a saturated dendritic layer
will continue to support multi-hour durations of moderate to locally
heavy snow with 1+ in/hr rates possible.

this is particularly the case given some convectively-induced
heavier bouts of snow...with lightning/reported thundersnow evident
since this morning across northern/central il into far northwest
indiana as of 21z. a 18z special observed sounding from lincoln il
sampled approximately 370 j/kg of mucape coincident with a plume of
steep mid-level lapse rates /8+ deg c per km 700-500 mb/.
thundersnow will remain possible mainly over the next couple hours
/mid to perhaps late afternoon/ across northern indiana/far
southwest mi...but the overall tstm potential should wane...although
the proximity of weak instability will continue to enhance snow
rates into this evening regardless of deep enough updrafts for
lightning production.

..guyer.. 02/17/2014

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...iln...dtx...apx...iwx...grr...ind...lot...

lat...lon 41078300 39918553 40868656 41578791 43058746 43418688
44138560 44188316 43148239 41948233 41078300

---

short term forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
527 pm est mon feb 17 2014

ohz003-006>008-017-018-172345-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-hancock-seneca-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...findlay...tiffin
527 pm est mon feb 17 2014

.now...
snow will be developing through this evening. an inch of snow may
fall by dark. untreated roads will become slippery.

$$

winter weather advisory
urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
305 pm est mon feb 17 2014

ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>031-036>038-047-180415-
/o.con.kcle.ww.y.0010.140217t2200z-140218t0900z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-
crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...
upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...ashland...
wooster...marion...mount gilead...millersburg...mount vernon
305 pm est mon feb 17 2014

...winter weather advisory remains in effect until 4 am est
tuesday...

• accumulations...4 to 6 inches. some sleet or freezing rain is
  possible for the southern part of the area.

• timing...the snow will rapidly spread across the area early this
  evening then taper off late tonight.

• winds...southeast winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph and then
  becoming southwest by late evening. gusts to 35 mph are likely
  after midnight with locally higher gusts closer to lake erie.

• impacts...snow accumulation can make roads slick...requiring
  lower speeds and greater distances between vehicles while
  driving.

• temperatures...steady in the mid to upper 20s early then
  falling into the lower 20s by the end of the night.

• visibilities...less than one half mile at times.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter weather advisory is normally issued for a variety of
winter weather conditions such as light snow... blowing snow...
sleet... freezing rain and wind chills. while the weather will be
significant... the word advisory implies that severe winter
weather is not anticipated. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for
further details or updates.

---

fxus61 kcle 172024
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
324 pm est mon feb 17 2014

synopsis...
a low over illinois will move across lake erie tonight then a cold
front will cross the area early wednesday before high pressure
builds in from the south. a strengthening low will move northeast
across michigan thursday night pulling another cold front across the
region. a reinforcing cold front will cross the area saturday.
&&

near term /through 6 am tuesday/...
a small but vigorous system will move ne across the area tonight.
initially temps thru the airmass may be warm enough for mixed wintry
precip although areas around tol may be able to stay all snow.
colder air spreading west to east across the area should change any
mixed precip over to snow by midnight or shortly thereafter. some
ice may glaze surfaces in the se third of the area but don't think
more than a quarter of an inch will occur. there may be some fzdz
lingering late tonight after the main band of precip lifts ne thur
the area.
snow totals thru tue morning of 3 to 5.5 in the north and 1 to 2 in
the south seem likely. snow totals may vary considerably due to the
potential for sleet and fzra mixing in.
winds gusting to 35 mph will produce some blowing and drifting.
winter weather advisory still looks like best headline.
the airmass will be somewhat unstable enough until the cold front
passes so there could be isolated lightning here and there.
&&

short term /6 am tuesday through thursday night/...
the snow will continue to quickly taper off from sw to ne tue
morning and high pressure quickly builds in from the ssw. the high
pushing in with dry air should lead to little or no opportunity for
lake effect to occur late tue or tue eve. warm advection develops by
later in the day so temps should rebound some on tue with highs from
the lower 30s ne to upper 30s in the sw.
a fairly moisture starved cold front is on track to cross the area
early wed and could produce a little light snow or flurries in the
north. the fast moving pattern will again allow high pressure to
build back over the area by wed eve but the high quickly shifts off
to the east by thu morning.
moisture from a developing system in oklahoma rapidly spreads ne
into the area thu. temps should warm enough so that by the time
precip develops it should be in the form of rain...possibly some
tsra too. highs thu are expected to be well into the 40s and maybe
even some lower 50s in the south.
luckily...the fast moving pattern will quickly bring another cold
front across the area late thu night to change the rain to snow.
this may help to keep the rain and melting snow from leading to a
major flooding problem...although some flooding issues are still
likely to occur...especially ice jams. unfortunately...it also means
the warmup will be short-lived as arctic air is poised to dominate
thru at least the beginning of march.
&&

long term /friday through monday/...
models are all over the place this weekend into early next week as
the colder air once again begins to press across the midwest and
lower great lakes. at least we do not see any of the models wind up
any large and spurious low pressure systems as has the been the case
the last couple of days. the cold air will arrive in stages...the
first on friday behind the first cold front. another weak cold front
is possible on saturday but there seems to be a trend that perhaps
later sunday into monday there could be a stronger cold front...with
an arctic front by next tuesday. i suspect that one of those fronts
will produce a more organized batch of snow as the trough aloft
deepens but i cannot tell you what day that might be. that being the
case...have "chance" pops pretty much each day saturday through
monday and hope to try to get more specific with time. saturday
might still be mild but there has been a trend toward a little
colder on each run. will forecast highs near normal saturday...then
back to below normal early next week.
&&

aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
deepening low pressure will cross northwest ohio tonight. a swath
of snow will accompany the low...almost like a squall line...with
gusty winds and bouts of heavier snow and blowing snow and ifr
conditions. some sleet is likely as well...especially at kcak
and kyng. the system will lift northeast quickly early tuesday
morning with clearing from southwest to northeast and gradually
diminishing wind.
outlook...non-vfr possible extreme ne oh/nw pa wednesday. non-vfr
redeveloping thursday and continuing thursday night and probably
into the weekend.
&&

marine...
the wind will increase quickly on lake erie tonight. east winds will
become southwest as a deepening low pressure center crosses lake
erie and the wind shifts. 30 knots likely and 35 knots not out of
the question as the pressure rises move up the lake toward buffalo.
will not issue a gale warning since the air mass over the ice will
actually be somewhat stable and any 35 knot winds would be short
lived. the wind will not have a chance to diminish much ahead of a
weak but fast moving cold front that will cross the lake wednesday
morning. a storm system thursday into friday will likely produce
gale force winds as it lifts out on friday. winds should decrease
this weekend as the pressure gradient finally weakens.
the strong winds and warmer temperatures may allow the ice on lake
erie to shift ...especially thursday into friday.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
tuesday for ohz010>014-020>023-032-033-089.
winter weather advisory until 4 am est tuesday for ohz003-
006>009-017>019-027>031-036>038-047.
pa...winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
tuesday for paz001>003.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...adams
near term...adams
short term...adams
long term...kosarik
aviation...kosarik
marine...kosarik

---

fxus61 kcle 180008
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
708 pm est mon feb 17 2014

synopsis...
a low over illinois will move across lake erie tonight then a cold
front will cross the area early wednesday before high pressure
builds in from the south. a strengthening low will move northeast
across michigan thursday night pulling another cold front across the
region. a reinforcing cold front will cross the area saturday.
&&

near term /until 6 am tuesday morning/...
this storm is on schedule...spreading east quickly. the southern and
eastern portion of the forecast area will get a combination of
snow...sleet and freezing rain at first and then the warmer air
will get pinched off and then it will go back to snow and then a
dry slot will be moving in. the snow accumulations are still in
question at the locations that mix. at the locations that mix we
should keep the amounts in advisory category...any locations that
just get freezing rain or just snow could get close to warning
amounts. at this time the advisory looks good...but will continue
to monitor that especially for the toledo area. some thunder could
also occur there this evening.
previous discussion...
a small but vigorous system will move ne across the
area tonight. initially temps thru the airmass may be warm enough
for mixed wintry precip although areas around tol may be able to
stay all snow. colder air spreading west to east across the area
should change any mixed precip over to snow by midnight or shortly
thereafter. some ice may glaze surfaces in the se third of the
area but don't think more than a quarter of an inch will occur.
there may be some fzdz lingering late tonight after the main band
of precip lifts ne thur the area.
snow totals thru tue morning of 3 to 5.5 in the north and 1 to 2 in
the south seem likely. snow totals may vary considerably due to the
potential for sleet and fzra mixing in.
winds gusting to 35 mph will produce some blowing and drifting.
winter weather advisory still looks like best headline.
the airmass will be somewhat unstable enough until the cold front
passes so there could be isolated lightning here and there.
&&

short term /6 am tuesday morning through thursday night/...
the snow will continue to quickly taper off from sw to ne tue
morning and high pressure quickly builds in from the ssw. the high
pushing in with dry air should lead to little or no opportunity for
lake effect to occur late tue or tue eve. warm advection develops by
later in the day so temps should rebound some on tue with highs from
the lower 30s ne to upper 30s in the sw.
a fairly moisture starved cold front is on track to cross the area
early wed and could produce a little light snow or flurries in the
north. the fast moving pattern will again allow high pressure to
build back over the area by wed eve but the high quickly shifts off
to the east by thu morning.
moisture from a developing system in oklahoma rapidly spreads ne
into the area thu. temps should warm enough so that by the time
precip develops it should be in the form of rain...possibly some
tsra too. highs thu are expected to be well into the 40s and maybe
even some lower 50s in the south.
luckily...the fast moving pattern will quickly bring another cold
front across the area late thu night to change the rain to snow.
this may help to keep the rain and melting snow from leading to a
major flooding problem...although some flooding issues are still
likely to occur...especially ice jams. unfortunately...it also means
the warmup will be short-lived as arctic air is poised to dominate
thru at least the beginning of march.
&&

long term /friday through monday/...
models are all over the place this weekend into early next week as
the colder air once again begins to press across the midwest and
lower great lakes. at least we do not see any of the models wind up
any large and spurious low pressure systems as has the been the case
the last couple of days. the cold air will arrive in stages...the
first on friday behind the first cold front. another weak cold front
is possible on saturday but there seems to be a trend that perhaps
later sunday into monday there could be a stronger cold front...with
an arctic front by next tuesday. i suspect that one of those fronts
will produce a more organized batch of snow as the trough aloft
deepens but i cannot tell you what day that might be. that being the
case...have "chance" pops pretty much each day saturday through
monday and hope to try to get more specific with time. saturday
might still be mild but there has been a trend toward a little
colder on each run. will forecast highs near normal saturday...then
back to below normal early next week.
&&

aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
band of heavy precipitation extends from tol-mfd-cmh as of
00z...pivoting ne at 30 knots. the heaviest precipitation will
only last for 1-2 hours at most locations before decreasing in
intensity as it shifts ne. precipitation will likely remain all
snow towards tol...while warmer air wrapping north into the system
aloft is causing a wintry mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain for most
other sites. brought a mix of snow/sleet as far north as cle
while mfd/cak/yng should expect more of a sleet/freezing rain
mix...transitioning to snow by 05z. expecting the peak in the
snowfall to be from 01-03z at cle with lighter snow lingering through
much of the night. tol could see occasional heavy snow through
04z.
winds will start off easterly at most sites...shifting around to
strong southwest winds between 03-07z as a cold front comes through
overnight. eri will see a strong se downsloping wind ahead of the
front with gusts to 35 knots this evening.
outlook...non-vfr possible extreme ne oh/nw pa wednesday. non-vfr
redeveloping thursday and continuing thursday night and probably
into the weekend.
&&

marine...
the wind will increase quickly on lake erie tonight. east winds will
become southwest as a deepening low pressure center crosses lake
erie and the wind shifts. 30 knots likely and 35 knots not out of
the question as the pressure rises move up the lake toward buffalo.
will not issue a gale warning since the air mass over the ice will
actually be somewhat stable and any 35 knot winds would be short
lived. the wind will not have a chance to diminish much ahead of a
weak but fast moving cold front that will cross the lake wednesday
morning. a storm system thursday into friday will likely produce
gale force winds as it lifts out on friday. winds should decrease
this weekend as the pressure gradient finally weakens.
the strong winds and warmer temperatures may allow the ice on lake
erie to shift ...especially thursday into friday.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 7 am est tuesday for ohz010>014-
020>023-032-033-089.
winter weather advisory until 4 am est tuesday for ohz003-
006>009-017>019-027>031-036>038-047.
pa...winter weather advisory until 7 am est tuesday for paz001>003.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...adams
near term...adams/kieltyka
short term...adams
long term...kosarik
aviation...kec
marine...kosarik

---

Some thunder or lightning was expected with this snowfall.

From the Cleveland NWS:

will continue to monitor that especially for the toledo area. some thunder could also occur there this evening.

From the Detroit/Pontiac NWS:

farther south, a convective component in the forcing will bring high snowfall rates and even some graupel/snow pellets with a rumble of thunder at times

Snow ended in West Toledo around 8:30 p.m. Another inch had accumulated by then, giving a total of 3.0 inches of new snow in just over 2 hours. Light snow started falling again a little before 9:00 p.m. We might get another inch before it ends late tonight or early Tuesday morning.

#weather - #toledo