Toledo Weather - Tue, Feb 18, 2014

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
358 am est tue feb 18 2014

ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>031-036>038-047-190900-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-
crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
358 am est tue feb 18 2014

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

the snow over the area will end by daybreak today.

.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.

a warming trend is expected the second half of the week.
temperatures may top 50 degrees on thursday. rain combined with
snow melt may produce flooding...especially thursday into friday. if
heavy rain were to occur... significant flooding is
possible. ice jam flooding is also possible especially in the
typical spots. this would include the mouths of rivers emptying
into lake erie. ice would likely back up on the rivers due to ice
cover on lake erie.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

Toledo Express Airport
Feb 18, 2014 6:52 am
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 26 F
Humidity : 75%
Wind Speed : W 20 mph - Gust 25 mph
Barometer : 29.92 in
Dewpoint: 19 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 12 F

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Feb 18, 2014 3:42 am

Today: Areas of blowing snow before 11am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 37. West wind 13 to 16 mph becoming south in the afternoon.

Tonight: A slight chance of snow showers after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. South wind 14 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 37. West wind 11 to 14 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: A chance of snow showers between 8am and noon, then rain showers. Some thunder is also possible. High near 45. East wind 9 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Rain showers before 4am, then snow showers likely. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 30. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday: Snow showers likely before 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 24.

Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28.

---

At 7:11 a.m.

Toledo Area Forecast Summaries
(using forecast.io data)

Now: Mostly Cloudy 26 F - W at 12 mph

Next 24 Hours: Mostly cloudy later this morning.

Next 7 Days: Mixed precipitation off-and-on until Friday; temperatures peaking at 46� on Thursday.

---

fxus61 kcle 181136
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
636 am est tue feb 18 2014

synopsis...
a low over the southern tip of lake huron will continue to move
northeast away from the area today. a cold front will cross the
area by early wednesday before high pressure builds in from the
south. a strengthening low will move northeast across michigan
thursday night pulling another cold front across the region. a
reinforcing cold front will cross the area saturday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
have gone ahead and extended the remaining advisory till 10 am.
this will give the snow a chance to exit the area. still seeing
some moderate snow but there has been a distinct decrease in
coverage and intensity the past couple of hours. winds continue to
gust and it will take a few hours for things to get cleaned up.
have had a few reports of close to 6 inches overnight. minor
changes outside of the advisory area.
original...still some moderate snow across the area this morning but drier
air is continuing to move in from the sw. the latest water vapor
imagery is showing the upper support starting to exit the area. expect
the main band of snow to continue to lift slowly ne the next few
hours as the surface low also continues to pull away. will let the
western half of the advisory go at 4 am as scheduled. little in
the way of additional accumulation is expected in that area.
another inch or two of accum is possible across the remainder of
the advisory. also expect that area to dry out later this morning.
right now it looks like we should be able to get rid of the
remaining advisory at 7am. wind gusts peaked around midnight and
continue to slowly diminish. some gusts to 30 mph remain likely
through daybreak and will keep a mention of blowing snow all
areas. the synoptic snow should be out of nw pa by late morning
with just a few snow showers possible this afternoon. temps are
kind of tricky today so have used a blend of guidance numbers.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through friday night/...
the first half of tonight will be quiet. another cold front will
slide across the region early wednesday. models continue to show
differing solutions as far as precip along the front is concerned.
the new ecmwf develops a wiggle along the front as it enters
eastern ohio. this results in some light snow developing. it
appears the se corner of the area will be clipped by this activity
and have bumped precip chances up for a few hours wednesday
morning. the gfs shows similar timing but has a little less snow.
the ecmwf seems to the model of choice today so will follow it's
solution. by midday wednesday most of the area will be dry with
high pressure quickly building in. by late in the day the surface
ridge will be east of the area which will allow warm air advection
to get going. expect 850 mb temps to warm 5 to 6 degrees wednesday
night. the area may see lows in the evening and then slowly
warming temps. all of the new guidance is slower bringing precip
into the area on thursday. this is a good thing as it will allow
temps to warm up which will ensure an all rain event. better
chances for rain will come in the afternoon and evening. this will
be a vigorous system and the area could see some thunderstorms
thursday evening. surface dewpoints will climb into the 40s so
expecting a good snow melt. qpf amounts forecast by the models are
not as high as previous runs. still...between a half and three
quarters of an inch of rainfall is likely. will continue to
monitor the potential for floods. a cold front will push east
across the area by daybreak friday. will likely see a transition
from rain to snow by friday morning. once the transition occurs the
precip will then quickly shut off so not expecting much
accumulation. high pressure will return for the start of the
weekend.
&&

long term /saturday through monday/...
extended periods are shaping up to be much more of the same after a
brief warm up. latest models suggest an upper level trough will
rotate southeast into central canada in which it will become
negatively tilted by thursday morning. at this time...surface low
pressure will wind up and move northeast to northern ontario canada
by friday afternoon and to near hudson bay by friday night. the low
pressure system will tap into some arctic air and force more cold
air south into the forecast area saturday into sunday. high pressure
will build east into the area by the end of the weekend at the
surface. however...a fairly fast moving shortwave trough will race
east into the area with its associated moisture and bring with it a
shot for some more snow to the region. will be keeping temperatures
relatively close to current forecast as i dont see any major changes
compared to previous model runs.
&&

aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
cyclonic flow around the low pressure continues to send waves of
snow into the forecast area. the back edge is about to move into
cleveland and has already moved east of mansfield. still expecting
visibilities down around a mile at akron canton...youngstown...and
erie for the next one to two hours. lightning at youngstown
has since moved east of youngstown and was the result of a little
bit of a convective line that moved through that area. snow will
end at the eastern sites over the next couple hours. then looking
for improving ceilings through the rest of the day. another shot
of moisture with a cold front will head our way tonight and some
light snow possible again then. winds should diminish by this
afternoon to around 10 knots and then increase again this evening
from the south.
outlook...non-vfr possible extreme ne oh/nw pa wednesday. non-vfr
redeveloping thursday and continuing thursday night and probably
into the weekend.
&&

marine...
winds on the lake will be quite brisk with the presence of the
surface low pressure system moving through the area at this time.
the low will move east of the area today as a cold front pushes east
across the lake by tonight followed by high pressure on wednesday.
the close proximity of the weather features will keep winds up
through wednesday and then begin to diminish by wednesday night as
high pressure moves over the lake. winds pick up considerably ahead
of the next storm system that moves through the area on thursday
with strong arctic cold front. cyclonic flow around the back side of
the low pressure system will persist into saturday along with gusty
winds on the lake.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
ohz010>014-020>023-032-033-089.
pa...winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
paz001>003.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...kubina
near term...kubina
short term...kubina
long term...lombardy
aviation...lombardy
marine...lombardy

---

fzus51 kcle 180850
nshcle
nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
350 am est tue feb 18 2014
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
lez142>149-181530-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-
on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny-
350 am est tue feb 18 2014

today...west winds to 30 knots becoming southwest 15 to 25 knots.
areas of blowing snow this morning. cloudy with a chance of snow
this morning...then partly sunny with a slight chance of snow
showers this afternoon.

tonight...south winds 10 to 20 knots becoming southwest 15 to
25 knots. mostly cloudy.

wednesday...southwest winds 10 to 20 knots becoming west. mostly
cloudy. a chance of snow showers in the morning.

wednesday night...southwest winds 10 to 20 knots becoming southeast
and diminishing to 10 knots or less. partly cloudy in the evening...
then becoming mostly cloudy.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for thursday through saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees...off cleveland 33
degrees and off erie 32 degrees.
$$
lombardy

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Forecast.io hi-lo Toledo temps as of 7:15 a.m., Feb 18, 2014:

• today, Tue, Feb 18 : 37 and 25
• Wed, Feb 19 : 38 and 28
• Thu, Feb 20 : 46 and 27
• Fri, Feb 21 : 37 and 30
• Sat, Feb 22 : 38 and 27
• Sun, Feb 23 : 30 and 19
• Mon, Feb 24 : 27 and 16
• Tue, Feb 25 : 26 and 16

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My Tue evening, Feb 18, 2014 TT comment:

Since the meteorological winter period ends on February 28, then I guess the following info counts as "winter" weather.

The Storm Prediction Center's Day 3 Convective Outlook shows much of Ohio, including Toledo, in the 'slight risk' for severe thunderstorms on Thu, Feb 20.

It appears that all of Thursday could be active. We may start the day with some freezing rain early in the morning, then mix in some steady rain and wee bit of flooding during the day, and then finally, cap the day with a threat of thunderstorms that may contain damaging winds.

Excerpts from two different Cleveland National Weather Service products:

there could be freezing rain if it develops early enough [Thursday morning] ...but the south wind will ultimately bring a spring-like surge of warm air into the area...especially by thursday evening.

melting snow and rainfall will likely cause flooding to develop later thursday into the weekend. river flooding...flash flooding...and ice jam flooding are all possible.

the amount of rain will be critical considering that we can pretty much fill up our waterways simply with snow melt alone. combine that with the risk of ice jam flooding and the flood threat may become significant. a flood watch will be needed.

nice divergence aloft and a strong low level jet and a good chance for thunderstorms.

thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible thursday night as a strong cold front crosses the area.

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