Toledo Weather - Wed, Feb 19, 2014

fxus61 kcle 191146
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
646 am est wed feb 19 2014

synopsis...
a cold front will move east across the area this morning. high
pressure will build east across the area by this evening. a warm
front will lift north across the region thursday morning a low
pressure moves into the middle mississippi valley. the low will move
north into the western great lakes by friday morning while
deepening. a cold front will sweep east across the region thursday
night into friday morning bringing a return back to the colder air
for the weekend.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
showers that were over southeast ohio continue to lift northeast
and away from the area.
the cold front was still just northwest of toledo and will slide
east during the morning hours. this feature may cause a stray
shower to develop over the east so will leave a slight chance of
showers for this morning.
otherwise...no other major changes.
previous discussion...
upper level trough will move east across the region with resultant
surface low pressure lifting northeast through central ontario
canada. a surface cold front associated with the low pressure system
will move east across the forecast area this morning and usher some
cooler air into the forecast area. upper level positive vorticity
maximum and associated moisture causing showers to move northeast
across the southeastern half of the state of ohio at this time.
expecting the bulk of this activity to remain south of the forecast
area. as cold front moves east...it will collide with some of the
mean moisture and result in at least a chance for some rain shower
activity this morning. as cold front pushes east...drier air and
clearing skies will work there way east into the area this afternoon.
maximum temperatures will likely be nearly steady through the day
even though we see cold air advection behind the front. sun should
help compensate for the cooling air mass.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/...
upper level trough over the region will move east allowing upper
level ridge to build into the region tonight along with surface
ridge. more troughiness digging in the central plains region and
then western great lakes will set in motion the development of a
surface low pressure over the oklahoma panhandle for the classic
panhandle hook. the track of the storm will be closer to the typical
fall track where the center stays west of the local area keeping
this area in the warm sector. a warm front will lift north across
the forecast area thursday morning. temperatures upstream appear to
be quite mild considering the extensive snow pack in place over a
large part of the northern u.s. thinking is that even though we
have an extensive snow pack as well...increased gradient winds will
likely push temperatures well into the 50s over the southwest
portion of the forecast area and around 50 elsewhere.
due to the instability expected with the cold front expected to move
across the area late thursday into thursday night...potential exists
for thunderstorms to develop along or ahead of the frontal boundary.
current upper air soundings indicate quite a bit of shear. if this
hodograph remains present through the passage of the cold
front...potential exists for some strong to severe thunderstorms on
thursday and thursday evening...especially in the western half of
the forecast area. actually...latest day two outlook for severe
thunderstorms has the western half of our forecast area in a slight
risk for severe thunderstorms. as always...will have to monitor this
situation and see how it develops over the next 24 hours. i cant
remember a time when we had an extensive snow pack on the ground and
we had to worry about severe weather. will see how much snow pack as
an effect on reducing severe weather threat.
latest guidance is not in agreement on how much qpf we will receive
with the storm system on thursday. some indications are that we will
get a quick shot of rain and then begin to quickly dry slot with the
cold frontal passage. the gfs and european solutions appear to be
the wettest...while the sref and nam are drier. will take the middle
of the road and go with qpf amounts of around a half an inch across
the area thursday into thursday night. snow pack contains a lot of
dry snow within it and can hold a little bit of rain before runoff
begins. at this time...will hold off on any flood watches due to the
possibility of a quick shot of rain on the snow pack. warmer
temperatures yesterday through tomorrow will cause snow pack to
moisten up a bit. critical ingredients for flood potential will be
the wet bulb temperature and winds. wet bulbs are progged to be
above freezing so we should continue to see snow melt through
friday. south to southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots will act as a
warm blow drier on the snow pack and this could very well cause the
snow pack to melt at a faster than usual rate. runoff from snow melt
and rainfall has the potential to cause some problems on rivers due
to the ice cover. if the dry slot shoots in here fast like the nam
suggests then qpf amounts will be much lighter.
once cold front pushes through thursday night...we will see a return
back to some fair weather and slightly cooler temperatures for highs
and lows. much cooler air really does not arrive until saturday
night so will adjust temperatures accordingly.
&&

long term /sunday through tuesday/...
models continue to have differences in the long term so confidence
is below average today. about the only thing that is certain is
that temps will return to below normal during the period. some of
the guidance is hinting at a weak wave passing just to the south of
the area on sunday. moisture appears to be limited so will keep
things dry for now. a cold front will move through sometime sunday
night or early monday. again it looks fairly dry and will limit
precip chances to far ne oh and nw pa. it appears the best chances
for precip during the period will be monday night into tuesday as
another waves moves through in the fast flow aloft. high temps both
monday and tuesday will be at least 15 degrees below normal.
&&

aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
a cold front is just about to enter the west end of the area.
currently no precip and very little in the way of cloudiness
associated with the front. new guidance continues to show some
mvfr cigs developing later this morning over the se end of the
area as the front arrives. will go with a tempo mention of mvfr
cigs for a few hours at kmfd...kcak and kyng. there could be some
vfr cigs elsewhere through about 18z and then expecting no more
than some high clouds. sw flow will become west behind the front
and then southerly again tonight. just some high cloudiness
expected tonight.
outlook...non-vfr redeveloping thursday and continuing thursday
night...lingering in ne oh/nw pa into friday. some non-vfr
possible sunday.
&&

marine...
a cold front will cross the lake this morning causing the flow to
become westerly. the flow will become east to southeast by daybreak
thursday as low pressure moves over the western lakes. expect
speeds to gradually increase. speeds will become southerly late
thursday as a cold front approaches from the west. the front will
eventually cross the lake thursday night. southwest winds behind
the front will increase to near gale force friday. speeds will
diminish friday night with west to southwest flow then expected
through the weekend.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Feb 19, 2014 6:41 am

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. West wind 9 to 11 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming southeast after midnight.

Thursday: Rain and snow showers likely before 11am, then rain showers. Some thunder is also possible. High near 50. Southeast wind 8 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Thursday Night: Rain before 1am, then a chance of snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 33. Breezy, with a south wind 18 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. Breezy, with a southwest wind 22 to 25 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Breezy.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 36.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 28.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 24.

Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22.

---

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
433 am est wed feb 19 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-200945-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
433 am est wed feb 19 2014

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.

melting snow and rainfall could possibly cause runoff into streams
and creeks late thursday into the weekend. the potential for
flooding is highly dependent on how much rainfall occurs and how
fast the snow melts. at this time...the computer models are
considerably different in the amount of rainfall expected. the
potential exists for flooding from run off and ice jamming if
significant rainfall amounts occur along with rapid snow melt.

in addition...thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible
thursday night as a strong cold front crosses the area.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

Last Update: Feb 19, 2014 3:31 pm

Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 24. West wind 6 to 10 mph becoming southeast after midnight.

Thursday: Rain likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 11am, then rain. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of fog after 11am. High near 49. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a slight chance of rain between 2am and 4am. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. Low around 31. Windy, with a south wind 21 to 28 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. Windy, with a southwest wind 26 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Breezy, with a southwest wind 16 to 22 mph.

Saturday: A slight chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 26.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 24.

Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 18.

---

flood watch
national weather service cleveland oh
353 pm est wed feb 19 2014

...flooding from snowmelt...rain...and ice jams possible thursday
afternoon into friday...

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-200500-
/o.new.kcle.fa.a.0001.140220t2000z-140221t1500z/
/00000.0.ic.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.oo/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-
trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-
marion-morrow-holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-
southern erie-crawford pa-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon...
jefferson...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...medina...akron...
ravenna...warren...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...
ashland...wooster...canton...youngstown...marion...mount gilead...
millersburg...mount vernon...ashtabula...erie...edinboro...
meadville
353 pm est wed feb 19 2014

...flood watch in effect from thursday afternoon through friday
morning...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a

• flood watch for portions of ohio and northwest pennsylvania...
  including the following areas...in ohio...ashland...ashtabula
  inland...ashtabula lakeshore...crawford...cuyahoga...erie oh...
  geauga...hancock...holmes...huron...knox...lake...lorain...
  lucas...mahoning...marion...medina...morrow...ottawa...
  portage...richland...sandusky...seneca...stark...summit...
  trumbull...wayne...wood and wyandot. in northwest
  pennsylvania...crawford pa...northern erie and southern erie.

• from thursday afternoon through friday morning

• a combination of melting snow and rain will produce a threat of
  flooding from thursday afternoon into friday. ice jams on area
  rivers may also produce flooding.

• a significant amount of water will be released by the melting
  snow as warmer temperatures move in on thursday. rain will
  enhance the flood thereat. any heavy rain could produce
  significant flooding. some river flooding is likely. ice jam
  flooding can develop quickly and make for a more dangerous flood
  risk. in addition to flooding on streams and rivers...flooding
  of basements and poor drainage areas is also possible.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a flood watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. you should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. stay tuned to weather radio for further details or
updates

---

fxus61 kcle 192100
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
400 pm est wed feb 19 2014

synopsis...
high pressure will build briefly across the area this evening.
a spring like storm system will track across the great lakes by
thursday night. a warm front will lift north across the region
thursday morning. the low will deepen and move north across the
western great lakes thursday night. the associated cold front will
sweep east across the area thursday night. it will turn colder
friday. a second cold front will come through on saturday.
&&

near term /until 6 am thursday morning/...
the back edge of the clouds are moving east at about 40 knots. the
clouds and a few snow showers should move east of the the entire
forecast area by early evening. the high clouds are coming quickly
but there will be a period early tonight in which the winds become
relatively light and skies are essentially clear. dewpoints are
dropping off slowly but we should see temperatures sneak down into
the mid or upper 20s in most areas tonight.
&&

short term /6 am thursday morning through friday night/...
the models remain relatively consistent with the deepening low on
thursday/thursday night. will see how fast the warm frontal rain
develops across northwest ohio thursday morning as to whether there
can be any freezing rain in the toledo area. temperatures will be
slow to rise there with the thickening clouds and the east wind.
mentioned thunder anytime across the northwest ohio since the low
level jet ramps up quickly there on thursday and the best upward
motion will likely track across illinois/indiana and catch western
ohio. our snow melt algorithms indicate that we will melt all the
snow except for perhaps extreme northwest ohio. the ground will be
slow to thaw as a deep layer more than a foot was frozen. we have
melted some of the snow pack that last two days but essentially all
the melt water will go into area streams and rivers. the upcoming
rain does not appear overly heavy but with convection there is
always a chance for heavier amounts. we will almost certainly have
ice jam issues on the usual rivers. will go ahead and issue the
flood watch which will run from thursday afternoon into friday
morning.
low level winds will increase thursday to at least 60-70 knots.
some of the models have 80 knots. we could have winds exceed
advisory criteria as early as thursday afternoon in the down slope
areas east of cleveland and probably everywhere thursday
evening/night. not sure about the severe storm potential. we could
have damaging winds with the frontal passage thursday night
whether we get thunderstorms or not. we often issue severe
thunderstorm warnings to cover these convective lines whether
there is thunder or not. we could issue a high wind warning if the
potential for damaging winds is not strictly convectively driven.
in any case we will likely need some sort of high wind
advisory/warning etc thursday night.
temperatures by later thursday will rise into the 50s just about
everywhere ahead of the cold front. the models often under
forecast the warming in the strong south winds.
cooler and windy friday behind the front. i am guessing that there
will be enough subsidence that there will not be any wrap around
rain/snow showers.
&&

long term /saturday through wednesday/...
cold air will progressively move back in over the area by mid next
week. upper trough over the northern great lakes sunday shifts over
the eastern lakes for monday. bits of jet energy will move along the
broad trough from the northern plains to the central appalachians.
have continued low precip chances across the northeast monday for
the trough...but uncertain about precip chances for sunday as timing
or even existence of the weaker features more difficult to track
down. tuesday is another case of one of these weaker features but
with ecmwf and gfs relative agreement have continued our low precip
chances. the upper trough digs a little deeper and by wednesday h8
temps are advertised back around -20c again. therefore temperatures
will be back well below normal.
&&

aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
a fairly strong vort max crossing the area at this time should
continue to produce a sct to bkn cu field...especially in the east
with some added mid clouds above. as this piece of energy shifts off
to the east by late afternoon the cu should then dissipate from then
thru sunset. think by 01z the only cu remaining should mainly be
around eri.
winds gusting around 20 knots will also diminish with sunset and
then back to se as the night progresses.
the latest models continue to indicate high clouds will be on the
increase tonight. mid and lower level moisture quickly arrives sw to
ne between 12z and 18z thu along a warm front lifting across the
area. rain showers will also quickly be developing eastward across
the area. it is possible temps may not be able to rise quick enough
at tol and fdy to get above freezing...so there could be a brief
window where initially the rain could be fzra...roughly in the 13 to
15z time frame if the precip occurs quick enough. think the chance
is less than 50% so may not mention in the taf. think temps will
rise above freezing point at other taf sites by the time precip
arrives.
winds above the surface may increase enough so that by 18z...llws
may start to occur.
outlook...non-vfr continues to become more widespread thu aftn
continues thursday night...lingering in ne oh/nw pa friday and maybe
sat. some non-vfr possible sunday and maybe snowbelt on mon.
&&

marine...
the first issue will be how much the se to s winds will increase
over the lake thu into early thu night as the warmer air flows over
the cold lake. the usual funneling near eri will produce higher
winds locally in that nearshore area thursday afternoon and early
thu night which could be near gale force but overall will hold
forecast to 30 knots or less.
a strong cold front will cross the lake thu night. the colder air
behind the front will lead to stronger sw winds that will probably
rise into marginal gale force for fri and may last into early fri
night. have issued the gale watch for this. another issue is whether
the warm up will create enough cracks and breaks in the ice for ice
movement to the ene fri with the stronger winds.
winds look to diminish to about 10 to 20 knots for sat and then
generally stay in this range thru mon as high pressure slowly
spreads se into the oh valley.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...flood watch from thursday afternoon through friday morning for
ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...flood watch from thursday afternoon through friday morning for
paz001>003.
marine...gale watch from thursday evening through friday evening for

---

fzus51 kcle 192043
nshcle
nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
343 pm est wed feb 19 2014
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
lez142>149-200300-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-
on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny-
343 pm est wed feb 19 2014

..gale watch in effect from thursday evening through friday
evening...

tonight...west winds 10 to 20 knots becoming south 5 to 15 knots.
partly cloudy.

thursday...southeast winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 30 knots. a
chance of rain and light freezing rain in the morning...then rain
with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. areas of fog in the
afternoon.

thursday night...south winds to 30 knots becoming southwest and
increasing to gales to 40 knots overnight. rain with a chance of
thunderstorms.

friday...southwest gales to 35 knots. partly sunny.
winds higher in and near thunderstorms.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for saturday through monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees...off cleveland 33
degrees and off erie 32 degrees.

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