Toledo Weather - Feb 20, 2014

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
549 am est thu feb 20 2014

ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047-211100-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-
crawford-richland-ashland-marion-morrow-knox-
549 am est thu feb 20 2014

...flood watch in effect from 3 pm est this afternoon through friday
morning...
...wind advisory in effect from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est
friday...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and
northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

flood watch.
wind advisory.

in addition...thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible
thursday night as a strong cold front crosses the area.

.days two through seven...friday through wednesday.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

flood watch.
wind advisory.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed.

---

flood watch
national weather service cleveland oh
532 am est thu feb 20 2014

...flooding from snowmelt...rain...and ice jams possible thursday
afternoon into friday...

.rain will overspread the area today as a warm front lifts north
of lake erie. a secondary round of rain will accompany a cold front
sweeping east across the region overnight. most areas will receive
between a half inch and an inch of rain...with locally higher
amounts possible where thunderstorms occur. additional run off
will be released from the melting snow pack as temperatures
approach 50 degrees by this evening. with the ground frozen...run
off from melting snow and rainfall will lead to rises on area
rivers. most rivers contain a considerable amount of ice which
could break up and jam as rivers rise and temperatures warm.
ponding of water and flooding of some roads and basements will
also be possible as snow continues to block drainage systems.

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-202200-
/o.con.kcle.fa.a.0001.140220t2000z-140221t1500z/
/00000.0.rs.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.oo/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-
trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-
marion-morrow-holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-
southern erie-crawford pa-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon...
jefferson...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...medina...akron...
ravenna...warren...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...
ashland...wooster...canton...youngstown...marion...mount gilead...
millersburg...mount vernon...ashtabula...erie...edinboro...
meadville
532 am est thu feb 20 2014

...flood watch remains in effect from 3 pm est this afternoon
through friday morning...

the flood watch continues for

• portions of ohio and northwest pennsylvania...including the
  following areas...in ohio...ashland...ashtabula inland...
  ashtabula lakeshore...crawford...cuyahoga...erie oh...geauga...
  hancock...holmes...huron...knox...lake...lorain...lucas...
  mahoning...marion...medina...morrow...ottawa...portage...
  richland...sandusky...seneca...stark...summit...trumbull...
  wayne...wood and wyandot. in northwest pennsylvania...crawford
  pa...northern erie and southern erie.

• from 3 pm est this afternoon through friday morning

• a combination of melting snow and rain will produce a threat
  of flooding from thursday afternoon into friday. ice jams on
  area rivers may also produce flooding.

• new rainfall of a half to one inch is expected. localized
  amounts up to two inches are possible from thunderstorms.

• a significant amount of water will be released by the melting
  snow as warmer temperatures move in on thursday. rain will
  enhance the flood threat and any heavy rain could produce
  significant flooding. some river flooding is likely. ice jam
  flooding can develop quickly and make for a more dangerous flood
  risk. in addition to flooding on streams and rivers... flooding
  of basements and poor drainage areas is also possible.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a flood watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. you should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. stay tuned to weather radio for further details or
updates

---

urgent - weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
411 am est thu feb 20 2014

.a strong cold front will move across the region tonight.
southeast winds will increase ahead of this front today. by late
afternoon wind gusts in excess of 45 mph will be possible near
the lake erie shoreline in northwest pennsylvania. winds
elsewhere will increase tonight as the front moves across the
region. a line of showers with some thunderstorms is also
expected to develop ahead of the front. winds could briefly gust
to 50 mph or more as this line moves through. behind the
front...winds will gust to more than 45 mph into friday evening.

ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047-201715-
/o.con.kcle.wi.y.0001.140221t0300z-140222t0000z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-
crawford-richland-ashland-marion-morrow-knox-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...
upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...ashland...marion...
mount gilead...mount vernon
411 am est thu feb 20 2014

...wind advisory remains in effect from 10 pm this evening to
7 pm est friday...

• winds...southeast to south winds will become southwest late
  this evening and increase to 20 to 35 mph with gusts in excess
  of 45 mph. wind gusts in excess of 45 mph are then expected
  into friday evening.

• timing...late this evening to friday evening.

• impacts...a few limbs...trees and power lines may be blown
  down.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a wind advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be
31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. winds of
these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra
precautions. motorists in high profile vehicles should use
caution until the winds subside. stay tuned to noaa weather radio
for further details or updates.

---

TOL
Feb 20, 2014 5:52 am
Weather : Fog/Mist
Temperature : 29 F
Humidity : 92%
Wind Speed : ESE 6 mph
Barometer : 29.95 in
Dewpoint: 27 F
Visibility : 6.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 23 F

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Feb 20, 2014 3:54 am

Today: Rain or freezing rain likely before 11am, then rain. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of fog after 11am. High near 49. Southeast wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 1am, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. Areas of fog before 11pm. Low around 32. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Windy, with a southwest wind 23 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Breezy, with a southwest wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph.

Saturday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 36. West wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 27.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 24.

Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 18.

---

fxus61 kcle 200932
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
432 am est thu feb 20 2014

synopsis...
low pressure over the southern plains will undergo rapid deepening
as it tracks northeast across the upper midwest today. this system
will lift a warm front north across the area towards midday...followed
by a strong cold front sweeping east tonight. the low will move
north across lake superior on friday...with a ridge building over
the southern great lakes on sunday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
active forecast as a developing area of low pressure over the
southern plains tracks northeast and undergoes rapid
intensification. an area of showers and thunderstorms can be seen
over illinois moving northeast along the elevated front aloft and
this area of precipitation will make rapid progress towards nw ohio
this morning as a 50-60 knot low level jet approaches. the dry
resident airmass in place will quickly be overcome with moisture as
pw values increase from 0.25 to 1.00 by 18z. concerns early this
morning include patchy freezing fog in ne ohio/nw pa where skies
have been clear most of the night. also some concern that easterly
flow off lake erie in nw ohio will slow warming this morning with a
brief window of freezing rain possible before temperatures warm.
upstream observations show temperatures warming into the mid 30s
immediately ahead of the rain...and given that it won't arrive
until around 10 am think rain is the most likely scenario.
however...warm fronts tend to slow as they approach the frozen
lake erie so did include a brief mention of freezing rain. this
will not occur until after the morning commute is over.
thunderstorm activity continues to expand to the west and did
include a chance of thunderstorms all areas today as elevated
instability increases. a flood watch remains in effect as we
continue to melt the snowpack compounded by multiple rounds of rain
expected today. the heaviest rain during the daytime hours will be
focused across nw ohio where 0.50 to 1.00 of rain is likely. the
ground remains frozen so this water and water being released from
the snowpack will channel into area waterways. ponding of water may
be aggravated by drainage systems that are clogged by lingering
snow. thunderstorms during the daytime hours are not expected to
pose a threat of severe weather due to the very stable layer near
the surface. there will be a very strong wind field aloft with winds
near 850mb of 50 knots but these are not expected to mix to the
surface. the exception to this will be erie county pa where
southeasterly downsloping winds will gust to 45 mph by late
afternoon.
temperatures will be a little deceiving for today as forecast highs
in the mid 40s to low 50s will not occur until this evening. the
warming will be slowed by clouds and rain through mid day with
southerly winds ramping up into tonight. areas of fog are expected
mainly across nw ohio as dewpoints increase with additional
moisture from the melting snowpack and cool flow off lake erie.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/...
by 00z...a 982 surface low will be located west of
chicago...continuing to move north with a cold front pushing east out
ahead of it. convection is expected to develop along the cold
front moving eastward with some uncertainty in how far north the
surface based convection will extend. for now the storm prediction
center has kept the slight risk for severe thunderstorms just
south of the forecast area. it is possible that these
thunderstorms could only reach as far north as central ohio...but
think there is a decent chance of them extending into north
central and north east ohio. have issued a wind advisory for the
entire forecast area for tonight as the strong cold front moves
through the area. if convection does reach nrn ohio then severe
thunderstorm watches/warnings may also be needed. thunderstorms
will mostly likely occur between 9 pm and 2 am.
there is some concern that models may be struggling with
temperatures this evening because of the snow pack and that we may
actually make a run at the mid 50s...increasing the severe weather
threat. whether it is from the convection or just strong downward
momentum along the front...think wind gusts to 50 mph are likely and
could exceed 60 mph with convection. winds may also be a little
stronger in nw ohio where the strongest winds and downward momentum
will occur behind the front. qpf will range from 0.50 to 1.00 inch
again but the heaviest rain will likely extend from central ohio to
nw pa which may not receive as much during the first round thursday
afternoon.
winds will remain strong through the day on friday as the low
departs to the north. the atmosphere will be well mixed through
nearly 800mb and a 45-50 knot wind field remains in place at 850mb.
wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible again...likely strongest in
the north.
there will be some warm advection on saturday ahead of the next weak
frontal push. highs will reach the 40s most areas and include a
chance of showers most areas...possibly mixing with snow in nw
ohio.
&&

long term /sunday through wednesday/...
the flow aloft will be fast and zonal at the start of the period.
the models continue to have differing solutions as far as the timing
and movement of the individual impulses is concerned. sunday should
be dry but some lake enhanced snow showers could occur sunday night
into monday. it appears the best chances for precip during the
period will come monday night into tuesday. the ecmwf continues to
show a wave moving across the region at that time. a period of
light snow is probable. this solution is similar to the models
previous couple of runs. the gfs continues to vary a lot from run
to run so will follow the more consistent ecmwf. will need to
continue with a mention of lake effect into wednesday. for those
wanting spring...you will have to wait a while longer. high temps
the entire period will be well below normal and at least 15 degrees
below normal from monday on.
&&

aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
rain shield now into western illinois should reach nw oh toward
daybreak and spread across the entire area by early afternoon.
still possible to see some freezing rain nw oh...roughly in the
13 to 15z time frame...but did not put into taf as still doubts in
my mind. think temps will rise above freezing point at other taf
sites by the time precip arrives.
warm front now across tennessee will lift across the area
tomorrow afternoon. as it does expect to see at least areas of
ifr cig/br until front lifts north.
by 18z the 925mb winds increase to 40-50 knots...may see a little
llws with the warm front itself.
strong cold front will move across the area thursday night. expect
tsra to develop ahead of the front and move across the area thursday
evening. doubts in my mind as to how widespread it will be in our
forecast area. spc keeps slt risk area to our south.
outlook...non-vfr ne oh/nw pa friday and maybe sat in -shsn. some
non-vfr possible again sunday and maybe snowbelt on mon.
&&

marine...
a strong cold front is still on track to cross the lake later
tonight. will see increasing se flow today and s flow tonight ahead
of the front. sw flow behind the front will increase to gale force
on friday. have trimmed the watch start time back several hours.
it still a little far out to hoist the gale. have coordinated with
buffalo and expect the day crew to go with a warning. speeds will
gradually diminish friday night. west to southwest flow will then
continue through the end of the period. a line of convective
showers will likely cross the lake tonight. expect gusts with the
line to be close to gale force.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...flood watch from 3 pm est this afternoon through friday
morning for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089.
wind advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est friday for ohz010>014-
020>023-031>033-038-089.
wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est friday for
ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
pa...flood watch from 3 pm est this afternoon through friday
morning for paz001>003.
wind advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est friday for paz003.
wind advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 pm est friday for
paz001-002.
marine...gale watch from friday morning through friday evening for
lez061-142>149-162>169.
&&
$$
synopsis...kec
near term...kec/kieltyka
short term...kec
long term...kubina
aviation...djb
marine...kubina

---

Toledo Area Forecast Summaries
(using forecast.io data)
Now: Mostly Cloudy 30 F - ESE at 8 mph

Next 24 Hours: Windy starting tonight, with heavy mixed rain and snow (2–4 in) throughout the day.

Next 7 Days: Mixed precipitation today and tomorrow; temperatures falling to 20° on Wednesday.

30 degrees at 8:44 a.m.

---

special weather statement
national weather service cleveland oh
816 am est thu feb 20 2014

ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-201530-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-
crawford-richland-marion-morrow-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...
upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...marion...
mount gilead
816 am est thu feb 20 2014

rain will spread across northwest ohio this morning. temperatures
will rise through the mid 30s. even though the temperatures will
rise above freezing... the ground is cold and ice may form on
untreated roads and sidewalks. use caution this morning and be
alert for black ice.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Feb 20, 2014 3:54 am

Today: Rain or freezing rain likely before 11am, then rain. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of fog after 11am. High near 49. Southeast wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 1am, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. Areas of fog before 11pm. Low around 32. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Windy, with a southwest wind 23 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Breezy, with a southwest wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph.

Saturday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 36. West wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 27.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 24.

Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 18.

---

fxus61 kcle 201231
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
731 am est thu feb 20 2014

synopsis...
low pressure over the southern plains will undergo rapid deepening
as it tracks northeast across the upper midwest today. this system
will lift a warm front north across the area towards midday...followed
by a strong cold front sweeping east tonight. the low will move
north across lake superior on friday...with a ridge building over
the southern great lakes on sunday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
area of rain already into nw ohio with temperatures slowly
creeping up. lima was up to 36 degrees and defiance was up to 33
degrees ahead of the rain although temperatures at tol/fdy remain
at or below freezing. some evaporational cooling may occur as
rain begins with dewpoints still in the upper 20s. left a brief
chance of freezing rain in the forecast for nw ohio this morning
but still expecting it to be short lived with temperatures warming
through the morning. minor adjustments to pops made for this
afternoon with a decent break in precip from late this afternoon
into the evening between rain associated with the warm front and
showers with the cold front overnight.
original discussion...active forecast as a developing area of low
pressure over the southern plains tracks northeast and undergoes
rapid intensification. an area of showers and thunderstorms can be
seen over illinois moving northeast along the elevated front aloft
and this area of precipitation will make rapid progress towards nw
ohio this morning as a 50-60 knot low level jet approaches. the
dry resident airmass in place will quickly be overcome with
moisture as pw values increase from 0.25 to 1.00 by 18z. concerns
early this morning include patchy freezing fog in ne ohio/nw pa
where skies have been clear most of the night. also some concern
that easterly flow off lake erie in nw ohio will slow warming this
morning with a brief window of freezing rain possible before
temperatures warm. upstream observations show temperatures warming
into the mid 30s immediately ahead of the rain...and given that it
won't arrive until around 10 am think rain is the most likely
scenario. however...warm fronts tend to slow as they approach the
frozen lake erie so did include a brief mention of freezing rain.
this will not occur until after the morning commute is over.
thunderstorm activity continues to expand to the west and did
include a chance of thunderstorms all areas today as elevated
instability increases. a flood watch remains in effect as we
continue to melt the snowpack compounded by multiple rounds of rain
expected today. the heaviest rain during the daytime hours will be
focused across nw ohio where 0.50 to 1.00 of rain is likely. the
ground remains frozen so this water and water being released from
the snowpack will channel into area waterways. ponding of water may
be aggravated by drainage systems that are clogged by lingering
snow. thunderstorms during the daytime hours are not expected to
pose a threat of severe weather due to the very stable layer near
the surface. there will be a very strong wind field aloft with winds
near 850mb of 50 knots but these are not expected to mix to the
surface. the exception to this will be erie county pa where
southeasterly downsloping winds will gust to 45 mph by late
afternoon.
temperatures will be a little deceiving for today as forecast highs
in the mid 40s to low 50s will not occur until this evening. the
warming will be slowed by clouds and rain through mid day with
southerly winds ramping up into tonight. areas of fog are expected
mainly across nw ohio as dewpoints increase with additional
moisture from the melting snowpack and cool flow off lake erie.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/...
by 00z...a 982 surface low will be located west of
chicago...continuing to move north with a cold front pushing east out
ahead of it. convection is expected to develop along the cold
front moving eastward with some uncertainty in how far north the
surface based convection will extend. for now the storm prediction
center has kept the slight risk for severe thunderstorms just
south of the forecast area. it is possible that these
thunderstorms could only reach as far north as central ohio...but
think there is a decent chance of them extending into north
central and north east ohio. have issued a wind advisory for the
entire forecast area for tonight as the strong cold front moving
through the area should at least bring wind gusts to 45 mph. if
convection does reach nrn ohio then severe thunderstorm
watches/warnings may also be needed. thunderstorms will mostly
likely occur between 9 pm and 2 am.
there is some concern that models may be struggling with
temperatures this evening because of the snow pack and that we may
actually make a run at the mid 50s...increasing the severe weather
threat. whether it is from the convection or just strong downward
momentum along the front...think wind gusts to 50 mph are likely and
could exceed 60 mph with convection. winds may also be a little
stronger in nw ohio where the strongest winds and pressure falls will
occur behind the front. qpf will range from 0.50 to 1.00 inch
again but the heaviest rain will likely extend from central ohio
to nw pa which may not receive as much during the first round
thursday afternoon.
winds will remain strong through the day on friday as the low
departs to the north. the atmosphere will be well mixed through
nearly 800mb and a 45-50 knot wind field remains in place at 850mb.
wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible...likely strongest in the
north.
there will be some warm advection on saturday ahead of the next weak
frontal push. highs will reach the 40s most areas and include a
chance of showers most areas...possibly mixing with snow in nw
ohio.
&&

long term /sunday through wednesday/...
the flow aloft will be fast and zonal at the start of the period.
the models continue to have differing solutions as far as the timing
and movement of the individual impulses is concerned. sunday should
be dry but some lake enhanced snow showers could occur sunday night
into monday. it appears the best chances for precip during the
period will come monday night into tuesday. the ecmwf continues to
show a wave moving across the region at that time. a period of
light snow is probable. this solution is similar to the models
previous couple of runs. the gfs continues to vary a lot from run
to run so will follow the more consistent ecmwf. will need to
continue with a mention of lake effect into wednesday. for those
wanting spring...you will have to wait a while longer. high temps
the entire period will be well below normal and at least 15 degrees
below normal from monday on.
&&

aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
a warm front over southern ohio will lift north across the area by
18z. precip associated with this front will move into nw oh by mid
morning. temps at ktol and kfdy remain below freezing. think kfdy
may climb above freezing before the rain starts but ktol may see a
brief period of fzra. will try to time the precip east across the
remainder of the area. expect keri to remain dry till late
afternoon. warmer and more humid air will arrive behind the front
and expect widespread ifr cigs and vsbys to develop as the snow
continues to melt. little improvement is expected till a cold
front arrives later tonight. it appears that a line of convection
will develop ahead of the front and move across the local area
beginning later this evening. will not include any thunder in the
tafs for now...but thunder is certainly a possibility...especially
in the south.
the other big concern today is the winds. se flow will gradually
increase today and then become s toward evening. the flow will
become sw behind the cold front. gusts to 30 knots are likely by
late afternoon most areas with gusts to 40 knots or greater with
any convection that forms and also right behind the cold front.
keri will see a good set up for downsloping winds and gusts to 40
knots are possible there by late afternoon.
outlook...non-vfr ne oh/nw pa friday and maybe sat in -shsn. some
non-vfr possible again sunday and maybe snowbelt on mon.
&&

marine...
a strong cold front is still on track to cross the lake later
tonight. will see increasing se flow today and s flow tonight ahead
of the front. sw flow behind the front will increase to gale force
on friday. have trimmed the watch start time back several hours.
it still a little far out to hoist the gale. have coordinated with
buffalo and expect the day crew to go with a warning. speeds will
gradually diminish friday night. west to southwest flow will then
continue through the end of the period. a line of convective
showers will likely cross the lake tonight. expect gusts with the
line to be close to gale force.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...flood watch from 3 pm est this afternoon through friday
morning for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089.
wind advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est friday for ohz010>014-
020>023-031>033-038-089.
wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est friday for
ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
pa...flood watch from 3 pm est this afternoon through friday
morning for paz001>003.
wind advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est friday for paz003.
wind advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 pm est friday for
paz001-002.
marine...gale watch from friday morning through friday evening for
lez061-142>149-162>169.
&&
$$
synopsis...kec
near term...kec/kieltyka
short term...kec
long term...kubina
aviation...kubina
marine...kubina

---

fxus61 kcle 201510
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1010 am est thu feb 20 2014

synopsis...
low pressure over the southern plains will undergo rapid deepening
as it tracks northeast across the upper midwest today. this system
will lift a warm front north across the area towards midday...followed
by a strong cold front sweeping east tonight. the low will move
north across lake superior on friday...with a ridge building over
the southern great lakes on sunday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
the mid morning update is pretty much just an adjustment to time
the advancing rain and thunder. temps in toledo should go above
freezing by late morning. will have to see how much of a break
develops in the rain this afternoon as we get into the warm sector
and will adjust the forecast accordingly. no other changes.
original discussion...active forecast as a developing area of low
pressure over the southern plains tracks northeast and undergoes
rapid intensification. an area of showers and thunderstorms can be
seen over illinois moving northeast along the elevated front aloft
and this area of precipitation will make rapid progress towards nw
ohio this morning as a 50-60 knot low level jet approaches. the
dry resident air mass in place will quickly be overcome with
moisture as pw values increase from 0.25 to 1.00 by 18z. concerns
early this morning include patchy freezing fog in ne ohio/nw pa
where skies have been clear most of the night. also some concern
that easterly flow off lake erie in nw ohio will slow warming this
morning with a brief window of freezing rain possible before
temperatures warm. upstream observations show temperatures warming
into the mid 30s immediately ahead of the rain...and given that it
won't arrive until around 10 am think rain is the most likely
scenario. however...warm fronts tend to slow as they approach the
frozen lake erie so did include a brief mention of freezing rain.
this will not occur until after the morning commute is over.
thunderstorm activity continues to expand to the west and did
include a chance of thunderstorms all areas today as elevated
instability increases. a flood watch remains in effect as we
continue to melt the snow pack compounded by multiple rounds of rain
expected today. the heaviest rain during the daytime hours will be
focused across nw ohio where 0.50 to 1.00 of rain is likely. the
ground remains frozen so this water and water being released from
the snow pack will channel into area waterways. ponding of water may
be aggravated by drainage systems that are clogged by lingering
snow. thunderstorms during the daytime hours are not expected to
pose a threat of severe weather due to the very stable layer near
the surface. there will be a very strong wind field aloft with winds
near 850mb of 50 knots but these are not expected to mix to the
surface. the exception to this will be erie county pa where
southeasterly down sloping winds will gust to 45 mph by late
afternoon.
temperatures will be a little deceiving for today as forecast highs
in the mid 40s to low 50s will not occur until this evening. the
warming will be slowed by clouds and rain through mid day with
southerly winds ramping up into tonight. areas of fog are expected
mainly across nw ohio as dew points increase with additional
moisture from the melting snow pack and cool flow off lake erie.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/...
by 00z...a 982 surface low will be located west of
chicago...continuing to move north with a cold front pushing east out
ahead of it. convection is expected to develop along the cold
front moving eastward with some uncertainty in how far north the
surface based convection will extend. for now the storm prediction
center has kept the slight risk for severe thunderstorms just
south of the forecast area. it is possible that these
thunderstorms could only reach as far north as central ohio...but
think there is a decent chance of them extending into north
central and north east ohio. have issued a wind advisory for the
entire forecast area for tonight as the strong cold front moving
through the area should at least bring wind gusts to 45 mph. if
convection does reach nrn ohio then severe thunderstorm
watches/warnings may also be needed. thunderstorms will mostly
likely occur between 9 pm and 2 am.
there is some concern that models may be struggling with
temperatures this evening because of the snow pack and that we may
actually make a run at the mid 50s...increasing the severe weather
threat. whether it is from the convection or just strong downward
momentum along the front...think wind gusts to 50 mph are likely and
could exceed 60 mph with convection. winds may also be a little
stronger in nw ohio where the strongest winds and pressure falls will
occur behind the front. qpf will range from 0.50 to 1.00 inch
again but the heaviest rain will likely extend from central ohio
to nw pa which may not receive as much during the first round
thursday afternoon.
winds will remain strong through the day on friday as the low
departs to the north. the atmosphere will be well mixed through
nearly 800mb and a 45-50 knot wind field remains in place at 850mb.
wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible...likely strongest in the
north.
there will be some warm advection on saturday ahead of the next weak
frontal push. highs will reach the 40s most areas and include a
chance of showers most areas...possibly mixing with snow in nw
ohio.
&&

long term /sunday through wednesday/...
the flow aloft will be fast and zonal at the start of the period.
the models continue to have differing solutions as far as the timing
and movement of the individual impulses is concerned. sunday should
be dry but some lake enhanced snow showers could occur sunday night
into monday. it appears the best chances for precip during the
period will come monday night into tuesday. the ecmwf continues to
show a wave moving across the region at that time. a period of
light snow is probable. this solution is similar to the models
previous couple of runs. the gfs continues to vary a lot from run
to run so will follow the more consistent ecmwf. will need to
continue with a mention of lake effect into wednesday. for those
wanting spring...you will have to wait a while longer. high temps
the entire period will be well below normal and at least 15 degrees
below normal from monday on.
&&

aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
a warm front over southern ohio will lift north across the area by
18z. precip associated with this front will move into nw oh by mid
morning. temps at ktol and kfdy remain below freezing. think kfdy
may climb above freezing before the rain starts but ktol may see a
brief period of fzra. will try to time the precip east across the
remainder of the area. expect keri to remain dry till late
afternoon. warmer and more humid air will arrive behind the front
and expect widespread ifr cigs and vsbys to develop as the snow
continues to melt. little improvement is expected till a cold
front arrives later tonight. it appears that a line of convection
will develop ahead of the front and move across the local area
beginning later this evening. will not include any thunder in the
tafs for now...but thunder is certainly a possibility...especially
in the south.
the other big concern today is the winds. se flow will gradually
increase today and then become s toward evening. the flow will
become sw behind the cold front. gusts to 30 knots are likely by
late afternoon most areas with gusts to 40 knots or greater with
any convection that forms and also right behind the cold front.
keri will see a good set up for down sloping winds and gusts to 40
knots are possible there by late afternoon.
outlook...non-vfr ne oh/nw pa friday and maybe sat in -shsn. some
non-vfr possible again sunday and maybe snowbelt on mon.
&&

marine...
jet maximum is progged to move northeast across the southern great
lakes and this feature will likely cause winds to increase over
the lake friday morning and continue into friday evening. winds
are expected to reach gale force friday morning. coordinated with
surrounding offices and the canadians on issuing the gale warning
for lake erie. warning will go into effect 7 am friday morning
through 1 am saturday morning.
previous discussion...
a strong cold front is still on track to cross the lake later
tonight. will see increasing se flow today and s flow tonight ahead
of the front. sw flow behind the front will increase to gale force
on friday. have trimmed the watch start time back several hours.
it still a little far out to hoist the gale. have coordinated with
buffalo and expect the day crew to go with a warning. speeds will
gradually diminish friday night. west to southwest flow will then
continue through the end of the period. a line of convective
showers will likely cross the lake tonight. expect gusts with the
line to be close to gale force.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...flood watch from 3 pm est this afternoon through friday
morning for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089.
wind advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est friday for ohz010>014-
020>023-031>033-038-089.
wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est friday for
ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
pa...flood watch from 3 pm est this afternoon through friday
morning for paz001>003.
wind advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est friday for paz003.
wind advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 pm est friday for
paz001-002.
marine...gale warning from 7 am friday to 1 am est saturday for lez061-
142>149-162>169.
&&
$$
synopsis...kec
near term...kosarik
short term...kec
long term...kubina
aviation...kubina
marine...kubina/lombardy

#toledo - #weather