Toledo Weather - Wed, Mar 5, 2014

Today Scattered snow showers, mainly before 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -2. East wind 8 to 10 mph.

Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 25. Wind chill values as low as -1. East wind around 8 mph.

Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. East wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable.

Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 39. Southwest wind 6 to 9 mph.

Friday Night A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.

Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.

Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 24.

Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 42.

Monday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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Forecast.io

today : 24 and 13
Thu, Mar 6 : 25 and 9
Fri, Mar 7 : 36 and 21
Sat, Mar 8 : 34 and 29
Sun, Mar 9 : 33 and 18
Mon, Mar 10 : 39 and 32
Tue, Mar 11 : 41 and 34
Wed, Mar 12 : 39 and 33

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fxus61 kcle 051159
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
659 am est wed mar 5 2014

synopsis...
a weak cold front will move south of the area this morning. arctic high
pressure over eastern canada will build south by tonight. the
high will shift east by friday allowing for warming in the south
flow ahead of the next cold front. the front should cross the area
saturday morning.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
made a few small adjustments to the hourly temperatures this
morning. also decided to call the snow showers "scattered" for
northwest ohio today since it seems most areas will have at least
a snow shower or two. no other changes for the early morning
update.
initial discussion...a weak cold front will sag across the area
early this morning. there appears to be enough low level
frontogenesis combined with the short wave coming out of the
plains states for some over running snow that will try to streak
into northern ohio this morning/early afternoon. the snow will be
fighting dry low level air and a lot of upper divergence but there
will likely be a period during the morning or early afternoon
where some snow can reach the ground...most likely starting out
near the turnpike and then shifting south and as far east as about
kcak.
temperatures today are tricky given the shallow arctic air trying
to filter back into the area. will keep the far northern sites
especially toledo and erie at or below guidance...around 20 or lower
20s. the southern counties might end up a degree or two above
guidance...mid 20s...perhaps upper 20s in a few spots.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/...
any lingering light snow should end by this evening. mid or
especially high clouds may linger and the northeast breeze will
likely stay up tonight. this should keep temps from totally
bottoming out but we will likely see temps drop through the single
digits across far ne oh/nw pa. some of the protected areas will
probably see lows near zero again across extreme ne oh/nw pa where
wind chills will be close to advisory criteria (-10f). will let the
day shift take another look at forecast mins and the wind before
issuing any advisories.
any remaining high clouds will thin out on thursday morning and the
day should turn out fairly sunny. temperatures are tricky again
since we are starting out with arctic air but the sunshine will try
to warm things up. highs should range from the mid 20s far nw ohio
to the mid 30s down toward canton.
warmer friday as we get into a southwest flow ahead of the next
front with highs in the 40s except for perhaps mid/upper 30s around
toledo.
the cold front should slide through the area saturday morning. all
of the models indicate another round of light precipitation in the
cold advection following the front but nothing major expected.
should be mostly light snow but it could start as some light rain
especially across the south counties. the gfs is faster than the
other models with the front and moving the precip south across the
area. will keep a chance of snow saturday night until any trends
become more consistent with the models.
&&

long term /sunday through tuesday/...
while the slow trend is toward more pacific origin systems...eastern
canadian upper low still dictates a flow that is more northwest than
zonal. there is general large scale agreement amongst the
models...but this pattern features a number of smaller scale
features which makes timing of sensible weather difficult. one thing
can be said is that there are no major systems on the horizon and
temperatures will not be too wildly extreme either. will continue
with a forecast that favors weak ridging sunday after an upper
trough departs and a trend toward low precip chances as the storm
track dips south across the lower great lakes for tuesday.
&&

aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
ribbon of moisture and light snow centered on the chicago area
will shift east-southeast through the morning and into the early
afternoon. as it does so moisture will get stretched thin.
therefore expecting a few flakes for tol/fdy and maybe mfd/cle.
further east it never gets moist enough. some mvfr conditions
with this feature...improving to vfr by later this afternoon as
high pressure builds in from the north. winds will be light
northeast during the day and begin to veer southeast for overnight.

outlook...non vfr possible saturday and sunday.
&&

marine...
a subtle boundary will sink south across the lake this morning.
light north flow will become more northeast today and pick up around
15 knots this afternoon. high pressure shifts from the northern
lakes today to new england for thursday...thus bringing the winds
around on lake erie to the east-southeast. southwest flow will take
place friday ahead of the next weak cold front set to cross the lake
friday night/early saturday. high pressure follows for sunday.
strongest winds may accompany the friday night/saturday front for a
brief time but it does not look to be any stronger than 25 knots.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...kosarik
near term...kosarik
short term...kosarik
long term...oudeman
aviation...tk
marine...oudeman

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flus41 kcle 051007
hwocle
hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
507 am est wed mar 5 2014

for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

day one...today and tonight.
no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.
no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

spotter information statement...
spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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fzus51 kcle 050828
nshcle
nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
328 am est wed mar 5 2014
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
lez142>149-051500-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-
on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny-
328 am est wed mar 5 2014

today...northeast winds less than 10 knots increasing to 5 to
15 knots. mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers.

tonight...northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. mostly
cloudy.

thursday...east winds 5 to 10 knots. partly sunny.

thursday night...southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south
5 to 15 knots. partly cloudy.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for friday through sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees...off cleveland 33
degrees and off erie 33 degrees.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
950 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-051600-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-
TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-
MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOLEDO...BOWLING GREEN...PORT CLINTON...
FREMONT...SANDUSKY...LORAIN...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...
JEFFERSON...FINDLAY...TIFFIN...NORWALK...MEDINA...AKRON...
RAVENNA...WARREN...UPPER SANDUSKY...CAREY...BUCYRUS...MANSFIELD...
ASHLAND...WOOSTER...CANTON...YOUNGSTOWN...MARION...MOUNT GILEAD...
MILLERSBURG...MOUNT VERNON...ASHTABULA
950 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

...THIS IS A TEST STATEMENT FOR THE STATEWIDE OHIO TORNADO DRILL...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A
...TEST...FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
IN OHIO.

...ASHLAND...ASHTABULA...CRAWFORD...CUYAHOGA...ERIE...
...GEAUGA...HANCOCK....HOLMES...HURON...KNOX...LAKE...
...LORAIN...LUCAS...MAHONING...MARION...MEDINA...MORROW...
...OTTAWA...PORTAGE...RICHLAND...SANDUSKY...SENECA...
...STARK...SUMMIT...TRUMBULL...WAYNE...WOOD AND WYANDOT COUNTIES...

AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF LAKE ERIE.

REPEAT...THIS IS A TEST...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.
REPEAT...THIS IS A TEST. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO EXERCISE YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN...
IF POSSIBLE.

AGAIN...THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE AS A PART OF THE OHIO STATEWIDE
TORNADO DRILL. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE ONLY.

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