Toledo Weather - Tue, Mar 11, 2014

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
631 am edt tue mar 11 2014

ohz003-006>009-017>019-121045-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-
631 am edt tue mar 11 2014

...winter storm watch in effect from late tonight through wednesday
evening...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and
northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

winter storm watch.

ice jam flooding may be possible today as any remaining snow melts
and flows into area creeks and rivers. as rainfall develops
tonight the threat will increase.

.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

winter storm watch.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
407 am edt tue mar 11 2014

.low pressure will move through the lower ohio valley late tuesday
night into wednesday. rain will move into the area ahead of the
low tuesday night. the rain will change to snow by sunrise across
northwest ohio and spread eastward on wednesday as colder air
moves in behind the low. a period of freezing rain is also
possible before changing to all snow. based on the current track
of the storm...snowfall should be highest across northern ohio
into northwest pennsylvania with decreasing amounts further south.
a glaze of ice however will also be possible.

ohz003-006>009-017>019-111615-
/o.ext.kcle.ws.a.0005.140312t0400z-140313t0000z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk
407 am edt tue mar 11 2014

...winter storm watch now in effect from late tonight through
wednesday evening...

• accumulations...6 to 8 inches of snow along with a glaze of
  ice.

• timing...rain will occur much of tuesday night. the rain will
  change to snow by sunrise on wednesday. as the rain transitions
  to snow there could be a period of freezing rain. the heaviest
  snow should occur from just after sunrise into early afternoon
  then taper off into the evening.

• winds...north 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible.

• impacts...accumulating snow along with a glaze of ice will
  slow travel across the region and make any untreated surfaces
  slick.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter storm watch means that heavy snow is possible. if you
are within the watch area...remain alert to rapidly changing
weather conditions. stay tuned to the national weather service or
the local news media for the latest updates and possible
warnings.

---

Toledo Express Airport
Mar 11, 2014 6:52 am
Weather : Fog/Mist
Temperature : 37 F
Humidity : 96%
Wind Speed : W 6 mph
Barometer : 29.66 in
Dewpoint: 36 F
Visibility : 6.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 32 F

---

fxus61 kcle 111033
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
633 am edt tue mar 11 2014

synopsis...
a weakening cold front will sag across the area today. this front
will stall over central or southern ohio this evening and become
the path for low pressure to move along late tonight into
wednesday. high pressure will build in on thursday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
only minor changes to hourly temperatures have been made.
previous discussion...
a weakening cold front will sag across the area today. this
should provide for a cooler day than yesterday. however the region
is starting rather warm so we have gone slightly higher than
guidance highs. still looks like most of the region will be near
or above 50...warmest across the south. as the flow comes off of
lake erie this afternoon temperatures will likely fall. we will
need to monitor for some fog development as the chilled air from
the ice covered lake moves onshore.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through friday night/...
low pressure will move near the ohio river valley tonight into
wednesday. this will bring rain into the region overnight. since
the models are slightly further north with the low track it
appears the rain may persist into wednesday morning from the
central county warning area into nw pa. this may end up cutting
into the snowfall amounts. we have nudged the heavier snow a bit
further north with this forecast package but have not changed the
watch area at this time. the reason for leaving it a watch is that
there is still uncertainty in the track of the low. there are
still a couple solutions that move the track even further north.
the main concerns for the county warning area are the nw and ne
corners. these two areas have the best shot at seeing the
significant snow...especially with an even further north wobble of
the track. after an area changes over to snow late tonight into
wednesday there will likely be a quick burst with 2 to 4 inches
rapidly accumulating. this may impact the evening commute from
cleveland to mansfield and locations to the east. we will then see
how much lake effect snow can occur in the wake of the low. winds
will be gusty in the wake of the low and could exceed 40 mph at
times.
as the snow tapers off the cold air will continue to filter into
the area with lows dipping into the single digits by thursday
morning. thursday will be a cold day with lake effect snow showers
for ne ohio into nw pa. as high pressure slides east of the area
on friday we will have increasing southwesterly flow. any snowpack
will slow the warming on friday but it still appears many
locations will be into the 40s. however the upper 30s may occur
across nw ohio and nw pa if the heavier snow occurs.
&&

long term /saturday through monday/...
a cold front will push south across the area on saturday with a
chance of lake effect rain/snow showers...mainly in the snowbelt as
the trough shifts through. the airmass will dry out as high pressure
builds over the central great lakes on sunday with north to
northeast flow resulting in below normal temperatures to end the
week.
&&

aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
southwest winds over the area will decrease towards 12z...possibly
becoming light and variable in nw ohio. as this occurs...visibilities
could drop in br towards dawn...mainly at tol/fdy where snowmelt
is contributing moisture to the boundary layer. not expecting fog
but can not entirely rule it out. otherwise winds will eventually
shift around to the north/northeast by early evening on tuesday
ahead of low pressure approaching the mid-mississippi valley.
slowed down the arrival of precipitation with the approaching
system...leaning more towards the nam. eventually will see rain
begin at all sites tuesday night...with aviation conditions
deteriorating as we transition to a wintry mix on wednesday.

outlook...non vfr becoming widespread late tuesday night and
continuing into wednesday night especially in the snow belt. non
vfr friday night into saturday.
&&

marine...
southwest winds of 10 to 20 knots will decrease through midday then
shift to the north by this evening. northerly winds will undergo
rapid strengthening from late tonight into wednesday as low pressure
deepens as it tracks through the ohio valley. the gradient really
tightens up over the southern lakes region between the system to the
south and high pressure strengthening over lake superior. a gale
watch has been issued for the whole lake for wednesday with 35-40
knot gales expected. gusts to 50 knots will be possible and some
movement of the ice sheet is expected.
winds will drop off considerably by thursday as high pressure builds
east across the region. southwesterly winds near 20 knots will
develop on friday ahead of low pressure passing north of the lakes.
the associated cold front will push south across the lake on
saturday.
&&

hydrology...
flow into the rivers will continue again today with some snow
melt flowing into a few of the area rivers. we are continuing to
monitor an ice jam along the chagrin river near willoughby. if it
continues to rise we may need to issue an areal flood warning. if
you live near the chagrin take any precautions needed to protect
your property.
otherwise there will be a period of rain tonight into wednesday
morning that will provide additional flow to all of the rivers.
any ice jams will need to be monitored closely. law enforcement
and emergency management from counties with rivers that flow into
lake erie will be needed to help with warning decisions.
another concern that could develop is the strong winds on the west
side of the low on wednesday. the strong northerly winds may bring
significant amounts of ice on lake erie back into the mouth of the
rivers and could add to the ice jam problems.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm watch from late tonight through late wednesday
night for ohz010>014-089.
winter storm watch from late tonight through wednesday evening
for ohz003-006>009-017>019.
winter storm watch from wednesday morning through late
wednesday night for ohz020>023-029>031.
winter storm watch from wednesday morning through wednesday
evening for ohz027-028-036-037.
pa...winter storm watch from late tonight through late wednesday
night for paz001>003.
marine...gale watch from wednesday morning through wednesday evening
for lez061-142>149-162>169.
&&
$$
synopsis...mullen
near term...mullen
short term...mullen
long term...kec
aviation...kec
marine...kec
hydrology...mullen

---

fzus51 kcle 110818
nshcle
nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
418 am edt tue mar 11 2014
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
lez142>146-111415-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
avon point to willowick oh-
418 am edt tue mar 11 2014

..gale watch in effect from wednesday morning through wednesday
evening...

today...southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. mostly
cloudy.

tonight...northeast winds 10 knots or less increasing to 15 to
25 knots overnight. a chance of rain in the evening...then rain and
snow overnight.

wednesday...northeast winds to 30 knots becoming north gales to
35 knots in the afternoon. rain and freezing rain in the morning.
snow.

wednesday night...north winds to 35 knot gales...decreasing to 15 to
25 knots. snow showers likely in the evening...then a chance of
snow showers overnight.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for thursday through saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 34 degrees...off cleveland 34
degrees and off erie 34 degrees.
$$
lez147>149-111415-
willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-
conneaut oh to ripley ny-
418 am edt tue mar 11 2014

..gale watch in effect from wednesday morning through wednesday
evening...

today...southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest 10 knots
or less. mostly cloudy.

tonight...northeast winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to
20 knots. a chance of rain in the evening...then rain overnight.

wednesday...northeast winds to 30 knots becoming north gales to
35 knots in the afternoon. rain and freezing rain in the morning.
snow.

wednesday night...north winds to 35 knot gales...decreasing to 20 to
25 knots. snow showers in the evening...then a chance of snow
showers overnight.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for thursday through saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 34 degrees...off cleveland 34 degrees
and off erie 34 degrees.
$$

---

Forecast.io Toledo hi-lo temp predictions

• today, Tue, Mar 11 : 44 and 37
• Wed, Mar 12 : 37 and 13
• Thu, Mar 13 : 24 and 0
• Fri, Mar 14 : 46 and 25
• Sat, Mar 15 : 42 and 33
• Sun, Mar 16 : 34 and 23
• Mon, Mar 17 : 30 and 16
• Tue, Mar 18 : 44 and 21

---

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
327 pm edt tue mar 11 2014

.low pressure will move through the lower ohio valley late
tonight into wednesday. rain will move into the area ahead of the
low tonight. the rain will change to snow after midnight across
northwest ohio and spread southeast wednesday as colder air moves
in behind the low. a period of freezing rain is also possible
before changing to all snow. based on the current track of the
storm...snowfall should be highest across northern ohio into
northwest pennsylvania. a glaze of ice however will also be
possible most areas.

ohz003-006>009-017>019-120330-
/o.upg.kcle.ws.a.0005.140312t0400z-140313t0000z/
/o.new.kcle.ws.w.0004.140312t0600z-140313t0000z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk
327 pm edt tue mar 11 2014

...winter storm warning in effect from 2 am to 8 pm edt
wednesday...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter
storm warning for snow...blowing snow...sleet and freezing rain
which is in effect from 2 am to 8 pm edt wednesday. the winter
storm watch is no longer in effect.

• accumulations...snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches...along with
  glaze of ice.

• timing...any evening rain will change to snow after midnight
  tonight. as the rain transitions to snow there could be a period
  of freezing rain and sleet as well. the heaviest snow should
  occur from wednesday morning into the early afternoon and then
  taper off into the evening.

• winds...north 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

• impacts...snow along with a glaze of ice will slow travel across
  the region and make any untreated surfaces slick. in addition
  strong winds will cause blowing and drifting.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter storm warning is issued when severe winter weather is
expected. heavy snow and/or ice will cause hazardous driving
conditions. if you will be traveling in the warning area you
should choose an alternate route if possible, or you should use
extreme caution if travel is unavoidable. stay tuned to noaa
weather radio for further details or updates.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Mar 11, 2014 3:22 pm

Tonight: Rain before 4am, then rain and snow between 4am and 5am, then rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet after 5am. Low around 25. Northeast wind 6 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Wednesday: Snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet, becoming all snow after 7am. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 19 by 5pm. Blustery, with a north wind 18 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: A chance of snow, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -8. Blustery, with a northwest wind 13 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 24. Wind chill values as low as -9. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45.

Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: A slight chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 39.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 18.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 29.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 30.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 17.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 46.

---

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
939 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
LOW TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND THE LOW. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE
STORM...SNOWFALL SHOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO INTO
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. A GLAZE OF ICE HOWEVER WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE MOST AREAS.

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-120945-
/O.CON.KCLE.WS.W.0004.140312T0600Z-140313T0000Z/
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOLEDO...BOWLING GREEN...PORT CLINTON...
FREMONT...SANDUSKY...FINDLAY...TIFFIN...NORWALK
939 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

• ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ALONG
  WITH GLAZE OF ICE.

• TIMING...RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY LATE TONIGHT THEN CHANGE
  TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEING RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN
  CHANGE TO ALL SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
  SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
  THEN TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING.

• WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

• IMPACTS...SNOW ALONG WITH A GLAZE OF ICE WILL SLOW TRAVEL ACROSS
  THE REGION AND MAKE ANY UNTREATED SURFACES SLICK. IN ADDITION
  STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND NEAR ZERO
  VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE... OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

---

fxus61 kcle 120126
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
926 pm edt tue mar 11 2014

synopsis...
low pressure...strengthening in the central plains...will move
across the lower ohio valley early wednesday. arctic high pressure
will fill in for thursday. another low will move through the great
lakes on friday however the warm front ahead of the low will force
the arctic air out of the region.
&&

near term /until 6 am wednesday morning/...
upgraded watch to a warning and added the far southeast into an
advisory. started the warning overnight northwest and near morning
or during the morning elsewhere. clouds will fill in through the
evening with rain spreading in from the west overnight. followed
the sref/nam combination through the short term. noted that the
12z run was just a bit cooler than 06z run. still...through 06z
expect any/all precip will be rain. by 09z the nam has the 0c
850mb temp from near erie to kcle to fdy however bufkit forecast
soundings show a nose of warmer air around 800mb. this ribbon of
warmer air shows up also across the rest of the area as well.
expect precip therefore to transition to sleet and freezing rain
before changing to snow. worded in the zones as a chance...however
believe it will be a decently good chance for at least an hour or
two of the mix. the only snow accum for the overnight will be in
the northwest with 1 to 3 at tol and around 1 at kfdy.
for late eve update...continued to slow temps drop some more with
this update and likewise slowed transition to wintry mix to
correspond to temp adjustment. also adjusted qpf for second half of
the night to lower in the inland east as most precip will stay
further north or west thru 12z.
&&

short term /6 am wednesday morning through friday night/...
continued to follow the nam/sref. by 12z expect precip to be snow
across the northwest third of the area with freezing rain and
sleet occurring near a line from mnn-cle-keri. the band of mixed
precip will shift southeast through the morning exiting the yng
area around 18z. snow will be heavy at times across the northern
tier through the day with dry air moving in from the northwest
mid/late afternoon. winds will increase from the north behind the
low reaching 20 to 30 mpg with gusts into the 40s. could see gusts
to near 50 esp near the lakeshore. will end precip wednesday
evening/early night wednesday night northeast as the dry air moves
in with high pressure. the high will be in place thursday with a
warm front moving through the region.
&&

long term /saturday through tuesday/...
strong warm advection progged for friday as a warm front lifts
north across the great lakes. high clouds are progged to increase.
did not go as high on the temps (40s to near 50 for highs) as might
be expected since we have to melt snow.
looks like a series of cold fronts or troughs will move through on
the weekend. the first weak cold front or prefrontal trough would be
later friday night. might be cold enough for snow but will mention a
chance of rain showers as well since there should be a decent
southwest flow ahead of the front/trough. the front or trough may be
east of the area saturday morning bit i am not convinced the models
have resolved the weak systems very well. with the trough deepening
aloft will keep a chance of rain/snow showers mainly across ne oh/nw
pa on saturday. it appears that the arctic front will slide south
across the area saturday evening or saturday night and kept a small
chance of snow showers for ne oh/nw pa.
the ecmwf still indicates a chance for a wave on the front by sunday
night into monday. the gfs builds in the arctic high. will keep a
small chance of lake effect snow showers/flurries and keep a low pop
elsewhere in case there might be a wave on the front. the latest
ecmwf brings yet another wave on tuesday but am inclined to keep the
forecast dry tuesday with a moderation in temperatures.
&&

aviation /00z thursday through sunday/...
everything looks on track for the surface low to move along the
ohio river on wednesday. all models seem to agree on this. clouds
will thicken and lower tonight with some isolated light showers
early tonight and then rain developing after 07z and spreading
east quickly. the tough question is how long will it take to go
from rain to snow with some freezing rain and sleet in between.
at this time going with 1 to 2 hours. conditions will lower to
mvfr after the rain starts and then as soon as the snow starts
ifr. the heaviest snow will be at tol...fdy...cle and eri.
conditions will begin to improve from the west by mid to late
afternoon.

outlook...mvfr wednesday night...and lingering into thursday for
ne oh/nw pa. non vfr possible friday night into sunday.
&&

marine...
winds will come around from the north and northeast tonight on lake
erie as low pressure develops over the plains states. gale force
winds will develop wednesday morning as the gradient increases
between the surface low over the ohio valley and an arctic high
pressure area in canada. the winds will decrease quickly wednesday
night into thursday as the arctic high settles across the lakes. a
clipper low pressure from central canada will slide down across the
great lakes friday into saturday leading to yet another arctic high
pressure system from canada building south across the great lakes
sunday into monday.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm warning from 6 am wednesday to 2 am edt thursday
for ohz010>014-089.
winter weather advisory from 8 am wednesday to 2 am edt
thursday for ohz032-033-038-047.
winter storm warning from 2 am to 8 pm edt wednesday for
ohz003-006>009-017>019.
winter storm warning from 8 am wednesday to 2 am edt thursday
for ohz020>023-029>031.
winter storm warning from 8 am to 8 pm edt wednesday for
ohz027-028-036-037.
pa...winter storm warning from 6 am wednesday to 2 am edt thursday
for paz001>003.
marine...gale warning from 11 am to 8 pm edt wednesday for lez061-
142>149-162>169.
&&
$$
synopsis...tk
near term...tk/adams
short term...tk
long term...kosarik
aviation...kieltyka
marine...kosarik

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Mar 11, 2014 6:11 pm

Tonight: Rain before 3am, then rain and snow between 3am and 4am, then rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet after 4am. Low around 25. Northeast wind 9 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Wednesday: Snow with areas of blowing snow before 4pm, then snow likely between 4pm and 5pm, then a chance of snow after 5pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 18 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as zero. Blustery, with a north wind 18 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: A chance of snow, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -8. Northwest wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 24. Wind chill values as low as -9. West wind around 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45.

Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 39.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 18.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 29.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 30.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 17.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 46.

---

md 0175 concerning heavy snow for nern mo/sern ia/nrn il/nrn ind/far swrn lower mi

mesoscale discussion 0175
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1152 pm cdt tue mar 11 2014

areas affected...nern mo/sern ia/nrn il/nrn ind/far swrn lower mi

concerning...heavy snow

valid 120452z - 121045z

summary...the precip type will continue to transition from rain to
snow from west to east across the discussion area. snowfall rates
are expected to increase to 1 inch/hr /locally 2 inch/hr possible/
over nern mo and sern ia through 09z...with these snowfall rates
developing over nrn il /including the chicago metro area/ into nwrn
ind and far swrn lower mi between 06-09z. given the ewd transition
of this storm system...the heavy snowfall rates should diminish over
nern mo/sern ia after 09z.

discussion...at 04z...a surface low was located just east of stl
with this low attendant to a progressive shortwave trough...
currently moving ewd across nrn mo. while each of these synoptic
features will track ewd overnight...with the surface low deepening
and reaching swrn ind by 09z...a larger-scale trough will amplify
sewd across the upper ms valley. 90-120 meter 500-mb height falls
are expected into lower mi and the lower oh valley through 12z.
strengthening nly low level winds across the discussion area will
support cold air advection to aid in rain changing to snow from west
to east as the surface low and attendant mid level trough track ewd.
strong forcing for ascent attendant to the two mid-level troughs and
further enhanced by strengthening frontogenetic forcing in the
850-700 mb layer from sern ia/nern mo to swrn lower mi/nrn ind
through 06-09z will support a band of heavy snowfall rates.

..peters.. 03/12/2014

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...iwx...grr...lot...ilx...lsx...dvn...dmx...eax...

lat...lon 42228605 41828586 40968676 40668726 40388794 39988916
39879021 39629150 39539290 39639349 40349329 40809263
41099150 41359060 41558960 41988785 42228605

#toledo - #weather