Toledo Weather - Sat, Mar 29, 2014

fxus61 kcle 291050
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
650 am edt sat mar 29 2014

synopsis...
low pressure will track through the tennessee valley today. colder
air will filter into the area as high pressure builds across eastern
canada. this high pressure will expand across the great lakes on
sunday. low pressure from the plains states will move across the
northern great lakes on tuesday dragging a cold front across the
area.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
no major changes to the early morning update. touched up the
hourly dewpoints and made some of the hourly graphics look a
little smoother otherwise the forecast is pretty much as it was
with the early issuance with the discussion as follows...
difficult forecast as a surface low will track into the central
appalachians placing the forecast area on the cold side of the track
with a fair amount of qpf expected. some of the models have had been
drifting the track of the low a bit farther south but it still seems
as though there will be enough qpf for a significant snow event
across most of north central ohio and parts of northeast ohio and
much of northwest pennsylvania. the deepening trough
aloft...becoming negatively tilted by tonight...is always a red flag
to me that the system can be stronger than what one might expect.
temperatures will be marginal for snow at first but as the
stronger upward motion moves into the area this afternoon the
atmosphere will cool below freezing. the majority of the
precipitation event from morrow/marion county through mansfield
and probably ashland will likely end up being snow. a short period
of sleet or perhaps even freezing rain is possible during the
transition but will not clutter up the forecast since it would
likely be short lived with minimal impact... it will not be an ice
storm. the snow will likely melt on the pavement at first
minimizing the impact which is always a tough call this time of
year...but the snow will stick when it comes down hard enough
especially by late afternoon as the sun angle gets lower.
not very confident of the forecast around bucyrus and findlay up
toward port clinton. it will likely snow decent there for a while
but could be on the edge of the deeper moisture. probably just a
period of lighter snow around toledo but there could still be
upwards of a couple of inches.

rain will likely persist from canton to youngstown as some
warmer air will wrap around the low into these areas. the rain will
take until evening to change to snow there minimizing the threat of
a significant accumulation. akron is on the edge...with a better
chance for decent snow just north of town in the hills.
taking a average of the model qpf...come up with 6-8 inches of snow
in the high ground of morrow...richland and ashland counties. will
issue a warning for those counties with an advisory for the
surrounding counties and up into nw pennsylvania. the heavier snow
may not occur across extreme ne oh/nw pa until late afternoon and
evening and will start the advisory late this afternoon.
temperatures today are tricky. we are starting out with temps mainly
above guidance due to the clouds and breeze. temperatures will drop
with the onset of the precipitation and then fall the remainder of
the day. tried to reflect this situation in the hourly temperature
forecast.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through tuesday night/...
the snow will taper off from west to east tonight. the evening
hours will be perhaps the most challenging as the sun goes down
and untreated roads could ice up quickly. not very cold aloft. so
while there may be some lake enhanced snow this evening...as soon
as the synoptic upward motion and moisture runs out...the snow
will end. no lake effect expected.
sunday should feature a clear/clearing sky and a cold north
breeze. this will keep the lakeshore cold and areas that have snow
on the ground will take a while to warm. highs will range from the
mid 30s right along the lakeshore where there is still ice cover
to the mid 40s nw ohio where it will be sunny all day.
went with the colder guidance temperatures sunday and sunday
night. the surface high will still be overhead sunday night and it
will cool off nicely.
high pressure will begin the day on monday over ohio...shifting
eastward in time. this will result in more of a northerly wind
component off lake erie in our eastern counties and a slower
transition to southwesterly return flow for all areas. adjusted high
temperatures down several degrees for the ne lakeshore counties
given the cool flow off the lake.
a low pressure system will track northeast across the midwest and
upper great lakes on tuesday. southwesterly winds should boost
temperatures into the upper 50s/near 60 ahead of the approaching
cold front. there is some question about how much cold air will
follow with the front given the cold pool remains to our north and
flow generally remains southwesterly to westerly. depending on the
track and strength of this system...tuesday could end up being
pretty breezy. this system is lacking moisture and just held onto a
low chance pop on tuesday.
&&

long term /wednesday through friday/...
models struggling through the duration of the extended forecast as
an active weather pattern continues. we will be watching energy
streaming off the pacific which could bring chances of
precipitation(mostly rain) from later wednesday through the end of
the week. temperatures will be highly dependent on storm track and
wind direction and have generally kept nrn areas near the lake a
little cooler than areas farther south.
&&

aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
mvfr ceilings will persist most areas overnight although a few
breaks may allow for a brief period of improvement. precipitation
will spread in from the southwest after 15z on saturday as low
pressure tracks through the lower ohio valley. temperatures in nw
ohio will be on the fringe for rain vs. snow at the onset but will
quickly transition over to snow. farther east at mfd/cle the
transition timing is a little harder to tell but went with a
19-21z switch to snow...likely taking until almost sunset at
cak/yng where warm air aloft will hang on longer. some
accumulations are possible but will struggle to stick to the
pavement during the daytime hours...likely starting to accumulate
where snow is still ongoing by 23z...mainly eastern sites. ifr
conditions expected all areas as precipitation rates increase.
northeast winds will increase towards sunrise and become gusty by
midday as they back to more northerly. winds will increase to 15-20
knots with gusts to of 25-30 knots...highest near lake erie.

outlook...non vfr will persist across ne oh/nw pa into sunday. non
vfr possible again tue.
&&

marine...
northeast winds will increase today reaching 20-30 knots by late
afternoon...strongest along the central south shore where the best
channeling will occur. this will occur as a strengthening low
pressure system moves through the lower ohio valley. the strong
winds will likely cause some movement of the ice sheet to the south
and west. the ice may block previously clear channels and vessels
should be aware of this threat through saturday and sunday.
winds will back to northwest and decrease to near 15 knots by early
sunday. the decreasing trend will continue through the day on sunday
as high pressure builds over the lake.
active weather this week as a series of low pressure systems move
through the lower great lakes. models in poor agreement with respect
to the track of these systems which will have an effect on both wind
speed and direction. stay tuned to updated forecasts this week.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt
sunday for ohz009>014-019>021-031-038-047-089.
winter weather advisory from noon today to 10 pm edt this
evening for ohz018-027-028-036.
winter storm warning from noon today to 2 am edt sunday for
ohz029-030-037.
pa...winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt
sunday for paz001>003.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...kosarik
near term...kosarik
short term...kec/kosarik
long term...kec
aviation...kec
marine...kec

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Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Mar 29, 2014 6:26 am

Today: A chance of rain and snow before noon, then snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Northeast wind 10 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight: A chance of snow, mainly before 8pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 21. North wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 47. North wind 5 to 8 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 28. Calm wind.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. Light south wind increasing to 6 to 11 mph in the morning.

Monday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 54. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.

Wednesday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

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