Toledo Weather - Wed, Apr 2, 2014

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Apr 2, 2014 3:54 pm

Tonight: Rain likely, mainly after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Northeast wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday: Rain likely, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 10am. High near 40. East wind 13 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Rain likely, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 10pm. Low around 38. Northeast wind 7 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before noon. High near 60. Breezy, with a southeast wind 8 to 13 mph becoming southwest 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday Night: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: A chance of snow showers before 10am, then a chance of rain showers between 10am and 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 29.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.

Sunday Night: A chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 52. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Breezy.

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fxus61 kcle 021949
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
349 pm edt wed apr 2 2014

synopsis...
waves of low pressure will track along a stationary front over
the ohio valley the remainder of the week. the strongest area of
low pressure will pull the front north as a warm front as the low
crosses the central great lakes on friday. the area will likely
get into the warm sector for a while on friday. the associated
cold front will sweep across the area friday afternoon. it will be
windy and cooler friday night and saturday.
&&

near term /until 6 am thursday morning/...
the next wave of showers is rippling east along the stalled front.
initially the showers will stay south of the forecast area tonight
and the evening should be relatively pleasant except along the
immediate lake erie lakeshore where the wind is off the lake. the
majority of the surge of showers should pass off to the south of the
area but there is enough isentropic lift that some showers will
drift into northwest ohio later tonight and along the route 30
corridor across the southern part of the forecast area. cannot rule
out a rumble of thunder from findlay over to marion. lows tonight
near guidance.
&&

short term /6 am thursday morning through friday night/...
the first real spring pattern of the year and back to battling the
convective feedback in the models. waves of showers/storms will ride
east along the warm front as it tries to come north. the source
region for most of the convection would seem to persist somewhere
between southern missouri to the lower ohio valley through thursday
where the gulf inflow and low level jet are the strongest.
eventually the front will move north and a generous area of
showers/storms will likely move across the forecast area at some
point and we may need a flood watch. i am not convinced we will
make great progress north on thursday since the surface flow will
remain east to northeast behind the early morning wave. we will
certainly have showers in the forecast thursday except for perhaps
extreme ne oh/nw pa. will mention thunder mainly across northwest
and north central ohio. it could be quite raw around toledo and
sandusky if the rain develops early in the morning and the east to
northeast flow is strong all day.

it may take until thursday night or friday morning to begin to get
the warm front moving north across the forecast area at which time
there would be the best chance for showers/storms and will play the
forecast that way. we will almost certainly break into the warm
sector on friday...at least for a while. it will be interesting to
see if we can get enough convergence along the cold front to develop
a line of thunderstorms on friday. there will actually be a little
cape. the flow becomes somewhat unidirectional aloft but there is
still enough shear that it could be interesting. with cooling aloft
there could even be hail.
will leave a chance of rain and snow showers in the forecast later
friday night into saturday. the 850 mn temperatures are progged to
cool off quickly friday night although it may take most of the night
for the boundary layer to cool.
&&

long term /saturday through wednesday/...
long term begins on saturday with models showing low pressure
pulling northeast out of the great lakes region as high pressure
builds into the central plains. not the warmest of patterns for the
area of course with gradient winds out of the northwest forcing
decent cold advection across the lakes and into the area. will have
a mix of rain and snow across the area for the morning
saturday...changing to rain in the afternoon as temps both aloft and
surface...increase. while most of the area should be cloudy in the
morning can see sun breaking out from the sw as drier air moves in
with the high. across the northeast however will hang onto clouds
through the day. saturday night through sunday high pressure and dry
conditions should dominate. sunday night moisture will be increasing
across the area from the south as low pressure moves north through
the mississippi and ohio valleys as an upper trough/low moves
through the midwest. monday through tuesday looks wet with likely
pops for rain monday and monday night dropping to chance tuesday
behind the associated cold front.
&&

aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
vfr conditions will continue through the day. moisture will begin
to increase this evening as overrunning increases over an
approaching warm front. expecting rain to move into the area from
the southwest around midnight with mvfr to ifr conditions
developing. further east have less confidence as ene flow will
have some drying effect to the lower levels and perhaps keep
conditions vfr. did end up taking conditions to mvfr at kcle-kcak
and kyng with vfr conditions remaining at keri through the
forecast period.

outlook...non vfr at times in precipitation wednesday night through
saturday.
&&

marine...
high pressure will continue over the lake this evening but will
begin to move northeast overnight as low pressure moves into the
central plains. by friday morning the low will reach southern
wisconsin lifting a warm front north across the lake overnight
thursday night. the associated cold front will move east across lake
erie friday afternoon with cold air wrapping around the low and
across the lake. through the weekend...high pressure will dominate.
winds will be quite changeable on the lake through the period given
the track of the low. this will begin tonight with northeast winds
increasing to 15 knots or so by morning. the northeast flow will
increase further to 20 to 25 knots thursday as the system
strengthens. as the warm front nears thursday night northeast flow
will weaken and begin to veer to the southeast by friday
morning...eventually increasing to 15 to 20 knots from the south
friday afternoon. by evening friday winds will veer to southwest and
increase to 30 knots behind the cold front. this will continue into
saturday before decreasing to 15 knots from the west/northwest
saturday evening as the low pulls to quebec and the high begins
building in from the west. sunday look for light and variable winds
with high pressure over the lake. monday east to northeast flow will
increases to 15 to 20 knots as another low moves up the mississippi
valley.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...kosarik
near term...kosarik
short term...kosarik
long term...tk
aviation...tk
marine...tk

---

fzus51 kcle 021943
nshcle
nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
343 pm edt wed apr 2 2014
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
lez142>146-030215-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
avon point to willowick oh-
343 pm edt wed apr 2 2014

tonight...northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. mostly cloudy. a
chance of rain after midnight.

thursday...northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. rain likely. scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon.

thursday night...northeast winds 10 to 20 knots becoming east 5 to
15 knots. rain and scattered thunderstorms.

friday...southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest and
increasing to 30 knots. thunderstorms and rain in the
morning...then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for saturday through monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 34 degrees...off cleveland 35 degrees
and off erie 33 degrees.
$$
lez147>149-030215-
willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-
conneaut oh to ripley ny-
343 pm edt wed apr 2 2014

tonight...north winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast 5 to
15 knots. partly cloudy this evening...then becoming mostly cloudy.

thursday...northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. cloudy with a chance of
rain.

thursday night...northeast winds 10 to 20 knots becoming east 5 to
15 knots. rain likely in the evening...then rain and scattered
thunderstorms overnight.

friday...east winds 10 to 20 knots becoming south 15 to 25 knots.
thunderstorms. rain in the morning...then showers in the afternoon.
a small craft advisory may be needed.
winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for saturday through monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 34 degrees...off cleveland 35 degrees
and off erie 33 degrees.
$$

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