Toledo Weather - Apr 3, 2014

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
401 am edt thu apr 3 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-040815-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
401 am edt thu apr 3 2014

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

locally heavy rainfall today through friday may eventually lead to
possible flooding...especially on friday.

.days two through seven...friday through wednesday.

there is a threat for severe thunderstorms friday with large hail
and damaging winds.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may become necessary.

---

Toledo Express Airport:
Apr 3, 2014 8:52 am
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 36 F
Humidity : 62%
Wind Speed : E 20 mph - Gust 25 mph
Barometer : 30.07 in
Dewpoint: 24 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 25 F

Toledo Executive Airport
(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Apr 3, 2014 8:53 am
Weather : Unknown Precip
Temperature : 36 F
Humidity : 64%
Wind Speed : ENE 16 mph - Gust 28 mph
Barometer : 30.09 in
Dewpoint: 25 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 26 F

Toledo Suburban Airport
(near Lambertville)
Apr 3, 2014 8:55 am
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 36 F
Humidity : 65%
Wind Speed : E 15 mph - Gust 21 mph
Barometer : 30.09 in
Dewpoint: 25 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 27 F

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Apr 3, 2014 3:40 am

Today: Showers. High near 41. Breezy, with an east wind 17 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3am. Low around 38. East wind 11 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 5pm. High near 60. Breezy, with a southeast wind 8 to 13 mph becoming southwest 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Friday Night: A chance of rain showers before 1am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Windy, with a southwest wind 22 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday: A chance of snow showers before 11am, then a slight chance of rain showers between 11am and 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 29.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Monday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 47.

---

Forecast.io data at 9:25 a.m.

Now: Light Rain 35 F - NE at 14 mph

Next 24 Hours: Breezy starting this afternoon, with rain later this morning.

Next 7 Days: Light rain today through Tuesday, with temperatures rising to 62�F tomorrow.

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fxus61 kcle 031132
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
732 am edt thu apr 3 2014

synopsis...
low pressure over kansas will move northeast through michigan late
friday pulling a cold front across ohio late friday...followed by a
reinforcing cold front early saturday. high pressure will move up
the ohio valley saturday night and off the new jersey coast sunday
then another low will move northeast across ohio late monday with a
trailing cold front crossing the area.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
the first impulse will move out of the southern plains while
weakening as it moves along the stalled front near the ohio river.
mid and lower level moisture collecting near the front will finally
have enough of a ne push to spread ne across the cwa with rain
showers becoming more numerous se to ne. the airmass may become
unstable enough aloft for some thunder to occur. unless training of
heavier rains occurs...don't think there will be enough rain for
flooding to develop thru this eve.
since the cwa is on the north side of the front...ne winds and
thickening clouds will keep temps below normal...especially for the
lakeshore areas just downwind of lake erie.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through sunday night/...
there will probably be a lull in the shra for a while tonight as the
energy with the first impulse moves off to the ene. then the
increasing llvl jet bringing warmer and more moist air into the
area...increased dynamics and the approach of a cold front should
lead to shra and tsra becoming more numerous west to east during the
latter part of the night into fri morning.
the cold front trailing the low moving thru mi will sweep across the
cwa from late fri morning thru fri eve. there appears to be enough
instability and wind shear for some strong to possibly severe storms
to occur with the passage of the cold front. fri into fri night
looks to be a windy period with winds gusting to 40 mph at times.
much of the rain looks to end with the passage of the cold front but
a secondary cold front early sat along with some wrap moisture will
probably produce some rain and snow showers as temps cool well below
normal again. the most likely area for the showers will be in the
snowbelt.
due to the expected lull in precip tonight...not sure if flooding
will develop fri into fri night so would prefer to hold off on a
flood watch.
high pressure builds in sat night so the shrasn should end sat eve.
the influence of the high should produce dry conditions until late
sun night when another low will quickly move out of the lwr ms
valley and head toward the area. using an average of the models
indicates rain possibly spreading ne across at least the ssw half of
the area by daybreak mon.
&&

long term /monday through wednesday/...
low pressure will be moving into the central great lakes on monday
with a period of rain anticipated. continued the likely pops for
monday with them lingering into monday night across the east. high
pressure will ridge into the region tuesday night but do not want to
completely yank the pops into wednesday with the upper level trough
axis still to our west.
the warmest day of the long term will be monday with highs at most
locations into the 50s. cooler tuesday and wednesday with highs
generally in the 40s...maybe some 30s for highs closer to the lake.
&&

aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
stalled frontal boundary near the ohio river valley will continue
to be the track of a couple waves of low pressure today into
tonight. easterly flow will likely make it difficult to move the
rain northeast across northern ohio and may never make it to ne
ohio and nw pa. for now have brought the best chances of rain and
some scattered thunder into nw ohio and maybe the central
highlands. the thunder chances will be best near and south of a
line from ktol to kmfd. believe we will not see mvfr ceilings
until the steadier rain persists for a few hours across nw ohio.
this will slowly spread eastward through the evening but the
easterly downsloping flow will definitely be a factor across ne
ohio and nw pa.
a better shot at some thunder will develop overnight and may move
into nw ohio and over lake erie by sunrise on friday. have hinted
at this possibility in the tafs. as the front moves across the
area friday morning we will need to monitor for some stronger
thunderstorms.
winds will remain ne to east into the afternoon and will begin to
shift to the southeast during the evening. winds could get gusty
off of lake erie...especially west of cleveland. gusts may reach 25
knots around toledo.

outlook...non vfr at times in precipitation thursday night through
saturday.
&&

marine...
low pressure over the southern plains will deepen as it moves into
the western great lakes tonight. this will cause northeast to east
winds on lake erie into early friday morning. winds to 25 knots will
cause significant ice floes to develop as pieces break away from the
ice field across the eastern 2/3rds of the lake. winds will shift
around from southeast to southwest on friday as the low moves into
ontario on friday evening. stronger cold advection in the wake of
the low will cause southwest to west winds to increase to at least
30 knots. the better surge of colder air will arrive friday night
and could boost winds into low end gales. we thought about going
with a gale watch but will let the next shift take a look at it and
issue if needed. high pressure will build across the lake sunday.
the next storm system will move into the central great lakes on
monday.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

---

fzus51 kcle 030725
nshcle
nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
325 am edt thu apr 3 2014
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
lez142>146-031415-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
avon point to willowick oh-
325 am edt thu apr 3 2014

today...east winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots.
rain showers. a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.

tonight...east winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 20 knots.
rain showers. a chance of thunderstorms in the evening...then
thunderstorms overnight.

friday...south winds 10 to 20 knots becoming southwest and
increasing to 30 knots. rain showers and thunderstorms.

friday night...southwest winds to 30 knots. mostly cloudy. a chance
of rain showers in the evening...then a chance of rain and snow
showers overnight.
winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for saturday through monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 34 degrees...off cleveland 35 degrees
and off erie 34 degrees.
$$
lez147>149-031415-
willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-
conneaut oh to ripley ny-
325 am edt thu apr 3 2014

today...northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. a slight chance of snow
showers this morning. cloudy with a chance of rain showers.

tonight...northeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming east 10 to
20 knots. rain showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the
evening...then rain showers and thunderstorms likely overnight.

friday...southeast winds 10 to 20 knots becoming south 15 to
25 knots. rain showers and thunderstorms.

friday night...southwest winds to 30 knots. a chance of rain
showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening...then a chance of
rain and snow showers overnight.
winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.
waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for saturday through monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 34 degrees...off cleveland 35 degrees
and off erie 34 degrees.
$$

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(my ToledoTalk.com comment posted today, Apr 3, 2014, about someone's concern over tomorrow's weather for the Toledo Mud Hens baseball home opener.)

Given the choice between today and tomorrow, Friday's weather is forecast to be much better than today's, so I would say the Mud Hens are lucky to be opening at home tomorrow.

This morning's Toledo temps were about 40 degrees, and now temps have dropped to 34 degrees.

Today: strong northeast winds blowing across frigid Lake Erie will probably keep our temps in the mid 30s all day.

Friday: strong southwest winds will warm Toledo temps to around 60 degrees.

60 degrees vs 35 degrees?

This 10:25 a.m. radar snapshot appears to show that today will be a washout.

Steady rain, strong winds, and temps in 30s. In my opinion, that's about as bad as it gets, weather-wise for being outdoors. It's tough to stay dry and warm in this mess. If I had to be outside for a prolonged period of time, I'll take cold, dry snow over today's weather.

The Mud Hens game is scheduled to start at 4:00 p.m. on Friday. I don't know if a persistent, steady rain is expected like today, but one issue for Friday will be the chance for thunderstorms.

But if you endured Toledo's winter, then Friday's forecast of 55- to 60-degree temps, brisk winds, and a chance for thunderstorms should be a snap to handle.

And people will still be downtown tomorrow regardless.

#toledo - #weather