Toledo Weather - Thu, Apr 10, 2014

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
438 am edt thu apr 10 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-110845-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
438 am edt thu apr 10 2014

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

wind gusts to 35 to 40 mph can be expected today ahead of a cold
front. the winds should diminish fairly quickly behind the front
later this evening.

.days two through seven...friday through wednesday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Apr 10, 2014 6:39 am

Today: A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 66. Windy, with a southwest wind 14 to 19 mph increasing to 23 to 28 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: Showers likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 39. Northwest wind 12 to 17 mph becoming light after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 59. North wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 41. South wind 5 to 8 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. South wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 69. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 51. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 43.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45.

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At 7:14 a.m.

Toledo Area Forecast Summaries
(using forecast.io data)
Now: Clear 46 F - SSW at 12 mph

Next 24 Hours: Windy until this evening, with light rain this evening.

Next 7 Days: Mixed precipitation throughout the week, with temperatures peaking at 67°F on Saturday.

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fxus61 kcle 100827
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
427 am edt thu apr 10 2014

synopsis...
a ridge of high pressure over the area will move east to the eastern
seaboard today. a cold front will sweep east across the local area
by this evening. a weak ridge of high pressure will build east
across the area friday. a cold front will move east and become
oriented west to east across lake erie as a stationary front
saturday. the stationary front will lift north of lake erie as a
warm front saturday night as low pressure moves northeast into
central ontario canada. low pressure will move northeast through the
central great lakes monday afternoon forcing a cold front east
across the area monday evening.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
a cold front is expected to move into the area today causing winds
to increase ahead of the boundary. 925 mb winds indicate a fairly
potent low level jet across the region today with winds at 45 mph.
expecting winds to increase to around 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 35
to 40 mph at the surface ahead of the cold front.
the nam model appears to be the slowest in bringing the moisture and
resultant precipitation into the forecast area this afternoon. the
european...sref and gfs all appear to be in agreement with timing
for precipitation later this afternoon. the only concern i have
with the front is the moisture is limited to that which is with the
front itself. i dont see a strong influx of moisture from the gulf
of mexico. so i am wondering if our probabilities for rain may be on
the high side for today...considering i dont see much activity
upstream at this time. due to timing and day time heating and warm
air advection taking place...potential exists for an isolated rumble
of thunder this afternoon. will wait to see next round of guidance
for the 630 am update to see whether to include it or not.
as for temperatures today...we see a major surge of 850 mb
temperatures from around 0 to 2 above at this time to around 10
above zero by this afternoon. this should help with the warm air
advection and we should see temperatures surge well into the 60s to
around 70...especially south. the strong gradient and south to
southwest winds should take the warm air right to the lake shore.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through sunday night/...
upper level pattern more favorable for spring type weather as flow
becomes more zonal across the united states and canada. there is
however a broad upper level trough over the eastern half of the
states and canada today and tonight. upper level trough gradually
slides southeast into the central united states and canada by monday
morning causing cyclogenesis to develop at the surface over the
panhandle of oklahoma and eventually track northeast into the great
lakes. in the mean time...high pressure develops over the western
atlantic ocean and this will keep a warm southerly component in the
wind out of the gulf of mexico region into the forecast area through
the weekend.
after the cold front moves through tonight...the air mass actually
may not be much different than the air mass ahead of the front. we
will lose the southerly warm air advection behind the front but the
front is expected to dissipate just east of the forecast area.
so...i will be leaning toward slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow.
one reason being is the moisture behind the front cuts off fairly
quickly tonight and i think this should be a very short period of
rain. expecting skies to improve fairly quickly tonight as well
behind the front.
another cold front will slide east and may wind up laying west to
east across lake erie by saturday and then lift back north of the
lake saturday night. this is a result of low pressure lifting
northeast out of the oklahoma panhandle for the weekend. warm air
advection will take place through sunday. however...moisture
associated with the cold front will begin to spread into the
forecast area late sunday afternoon and will likely see a threat for
showers and thunderstorms as instability develops.
models are hinting at a dry slot developing ahead of the next wave
of low pressure sunday night and this could help to keep the area in
the warm sector into monday. a shift a bit further east of the track
of the low will take the area out of the warm sector by monday.
so...will have to monitor this track as potential exists that area
could remain unstable for thunderstorm threat well into monday.
i bumped up temperatures all periods due to the slower timing of the
cold front into the forecast area.
&&

long term /monday through wednesday/...
the models are coming into agreement in moving the cold front across
the forecast area on monday. at this time no mention of thunder and
will continue the likely pops. after the frontal passage monday
night some rain and snow mix could occur and then the ridge will
build in for tuesday. the temperature forecast is tough on monday
especially over the eastern portion of the forecast area with clouds
around and the threat of showers. used a blend of guidance for the
temperature forecast.
on wednesday high pressure will be north of the area and the gfs
model tries to hint at some showers developing over northern
indiana. not sure about that...so backed down on the pops to 20% and
decreased the area. this will have to be watched.
&&

aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
some mid and high clouds will eventually start to thicken and
lower today ahead of a cold front that will move north to south
through the region this thursday evening. winds will be gusty
ahead of the front especially. the showers associated with the
front will only last 2 to 4 hours and it will be mainly vfr with a
brief period where the visibility could drop to 5 miles and the
ceiling to 3000 feet. behind the front conditions will clear out.
at this time expecting vfr conditions behind the front even with a
northwest flow.

outlook...non vfr developing on sunday and continuing into monday.
&&

marine...
gusty southwest winds in warm advection will be developing today on
lake erie. even with the warm air aloft the winds will mix down. the
waves will not make the small craft advisory
criteria...however...the winds of 15 to 25 knots will. because of
the ice on eastern lake erie will only have the small craft advisory
up to geneva on the lake. the small craft advisory will start at
noon and then end after dark. the winds will decrease quickly after
the frontal passage.
a ridge builds over the lake tonight and then slides south by
saturday morning. another frontal system will be approaching the
lake for sunday into monday. on sunday the winds will be southwest
and it will be close whether they mix down...a small craft advisory
may be needed. the front moves through on monday and a small craft
advisory will likely be needed in the cold advection. a ridge will
build over the lake for mid week.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from noon today to 10 pm edt this evening
for lez142>147.
&&
$$
synopsis...lombardy
near term...lombardy
short term...lombardy
long term...kieltyka
aviation...kieltyka
marine...kieltyka

---

fzus51 kcle 100758
nshcle
nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
358 am edt thu apr 10 2014
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
lez142>147-101415-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-
358 am edt thu apr 10 2014

..small craft advisory in effect from noon edt today through this
evening...

today...south winds 10 to 20 knots becoming southwest 20 to
25 knots. rain showers likely late this afternoon. waves in ice
free areas 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.

tonight...west winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and
diminishing to 10 knots or less overnight. rain showers in the
evening...then a chance of rain showers overnight. waves 3 to 5 feet
subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.

friday...north winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. sunny.
waves 2 feet or less.

friday night...southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south.
mostly clear. waves 2 feet or less.
waves are for ice free areas.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for saturday through monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees...off cleveland 39
degrees and off erie 34 degrees.
$$
lez148-149-101415-
geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny-
358 am edt thu apr 10 2014

today...south winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. rain
showers likely late this afternoon. waves in ice free areas 2
feet or less.

tonight...southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west and
diminishing to 10 knots or less overnight. rain showers in the
evening...then a chance of rain showers overnight. waves 2 feet or
less.

friday...light and variable winds. sunny. waves 2 feet or less.

friday night...southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south.
mostly clear. waves 2 feet or less.
waves are for ice free areas.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for saturday through monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees...off cleveland 39 degrees
and off erie 34 degrees.
$$
kieltyka

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