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What Americans Think Of The Biden Impeachment Inquiry - 2023-09-14T19:41:00+00:00
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly-ish polling roundup. It’s officially impeachment season again. On Tuesday, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy announced that he’s directing three House committees to start investigating whether President Biden benefited from his son Hunter’s business dealings overseas. McCarthy accused the Biden family of “a culture of corruption,” saying that the Biden administration […]

The Second GOP Debate Could Be Smaller, With Or Without Trump - 2023-09-14T10:00:00+00:00
The second Republican presidential primary debate is less than two weeks away, so time is running out for GOP contenders to meet the Republican National Committee’s qualification criteria. To make the Sept. 27 debate, each candidate must have at least 3 percent support in two qualifying national polls, or at least 3 percent in one […]

The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans - 2023-09-13T22:40:55+00:00
On Wednesday, Utah Sen. Mitt Romney announced he would not run for reelection in 2024. On the surface, the electoral impact of Romney’s decision is minimal — his seat should stay safely in Republican hands. But it’s still notable because it represents the departure of one of the few remaining Republican senators who had a […]

Why ‘Bidenomics’ Isn’t Working For Biden - 2023-09-12T20:07:16+00:00
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst): For a long time, the economy has been seen as a big liability for President Biden in his reelection bid. Inflation soared in 2021 and 2022, culminating at a rate of 9.1 percent last June. The same […]

Why Biden Is Losing Support Among Voters Of Color - 2023-09-11T23:58:15+00:00
Among the most politically tuned-in, last week saw the kind of hand-wringing and accusations of bias surrounding the polls that you’d usually expect from the final two months of a campaign, not the final year and two months of a campaign. The focus was largely on general election polls: Whether a Wall Street Journal poll […]

Politics Podcast: Polling Silly Season Begins - 2023-09-11T22:15:16+00:00
Among the most politically tuned-in, last week saw the kind of hand-wringing and accusations of bias surrounding the polls that you’d usually expect from the final two months of a campaign, not the final year and two months of a campaign. The focus was largely on general election polls: Whether a Wall Street Journal poll showing former President Donald […]

Ron DeSantis Probably Didn’t Turn Florida Red - 2023-09-11T18:34:26+00:00
In his presidential campaign, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has pitched himself as a transformational leader who has reshaped the politics of his home state. His 2022 reelection by 19 percentage points “was not just a big victory,” he has argued. “It was really a fundamental realignment of Florida from being a swing state to being […]

Aging Politicians Are Only Going To Get More Common - 2023-09-07T10:00:00+00:00
Presidents are getting older and older. Former President Donald Trump was the oldest person to assume office when he was sworn in on Jan. 20, 2017, and President Biden broke that record four years later. If either is elected again next year, at ages 78 and 81, respectively, they will be older than the previous […]

Should We Trust Polls Campaigns Leak To The Press? - 2023-09-07T02:20:46+00:00
Now that we are on the other side of Labor Day and summer is subsiding, this is — as tradition goes — when focus on political campaigns really begins to heat up. The off-year elections this November will get some attention, but the main attraction is still the 2024 Republican presidential primary. In this installment […]

Politics Podcast: Is Donald Trump The Inevitable GOP Nominee? - 2023-09-06T22:33:55+00:00
Now that we are on the other side of Labor Day and summer is subsiding, this is — as tradition goes — when focus on political campaigns really begins to heat up. The off-year elections this November will get some attention, but the main attraction is still the 2024 Republican presidential primary. In this installment […]

What Are The Swing States Of The Future? - 2023-09-06T14:45:05+00:00
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. ameliatd (Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, senior reporter): The residents of states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are used to having their airwaves flooded with political ads as presidential elections draw near. But over the years, there’s actually been a lot of variation in which states […]

Everything You Need To Know About Tuesday’s Special Elections In Rhode Island And Utah - 2023-09-05T10:00:00+00:00
Usually, Labor Day is considered the traditional start of campaign season — but here in 2023, it marks the end of the competitive phase of two heated special elections. Neither Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District nor Utah’s 2nd is expected to be very competitive in November’s general elections, so Tuesday’s primaries will likely determine their […]

Vivek Ramaswamy Is Climbing. Where Can He Go? - 2023-09-01T10:00:00+00:00
At last week’s Republican debate, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy arguably made the biggest splash of any candidate. Sharing center stage with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the entrepreneur spoke more than any contender other than former Vice President Mike Pence and even briefly surpassed the absent front-runner, former President Donald Trump, in Google search traffic. Built partly […]

We’re Hiring A Visual Journalist - 2023-08-31T13:59:38+00:00
FiveThirtyEight is looking for a savvy Visual Journalist to cover U.S. politics and elections. The ideal candidate will be eager to contribute in a number of capacities — through daily graphics production, collaboration on reported stories and work on our “big swing” interactives. We’re looking for a web developer and designer who can exercise strong […]

After An Eventful Month, Trump Has Lost Support In The GOP Primary - 2023-08-31T10:00:00+00:00
Once more, with feeling: It has been a couple of weeks since former President Donald Trump’s latest indictment (this time in Georgia, in connection with his efforts to overturn the 2020 election there). Do the charges appear to have affected his chances of returning to the White House? After each of Trump’s three prior indictments, […]

Will Trump Regret Skipping The GOP Debates? - 2023-08-30T10:00:00+00:00
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. maya (Maya Sweedler, senior editor): The first Republican debate last Wednesday featured eight candidates — none of whom was the front-runner. Former President Donald Trump elected to skip the debate, writing on his social media website that “The public knows who I am […]

What Are Trump’s Chances Of Winning The GOP Primary? - 2023-08-29T18:57:45+00:00
Is the 2024 Republican presidential primary already over? If you just look at the polls, you’d be forgiven for thinking so. Consider the state of the states: Several polls published last week showed former President Donald Trump leading in Iowa (with 42 percent to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s 19 percent and South Carolina Sen. Tim […]

Politics Podcast: Good Or Bad Use Of Polling … Extended Cut - 2023-08-28T22:34:52+00:00
This is a special end-of-meteorological-summer installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Galen Druke speaks with pollsters Kristen Soltis Anderson and David Byler in an episode made entirely of “good or bad use of polling” examples. They consider why GOP primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy polls differently depending on survey methodology, what we can learn from post-debate […]

How Restarting Student Loan Payments Could Change Millions of Lives — And The Economy - 2023-08-28T10:00:00+00:00
When Congress voted in May to restart student loan payments this fall — and then the Supreme Court overturned President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan in June — Alexa Goins and her husband realized they had a choice: They could keep their house or they could pay off their student debt. Together, she and her […]

Politics Podcast: Lessons From A Trump-Less Debate - 2023-08-24T13:36:11+00:00
The crew discusses their takeaways from the first Republican presidential primary debate in this late-night edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new […]

Data Lab

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Nate's articles

Nate Silver – FiveThirtyEight -

What To Do About A Problem Like Dianne Feinstein? - 2023-04-25T15:48:30+00:00
Congress returned from recess last week to two ongoing conflicts. One was Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s absence from the Senate, stalling the process by which Democrats can approve their judicial nominees. The other was what to do about the debt ceiling, which has already been breached and could lead to the U.S. government running out of […]

Politics Podcast: Are America’s Favorite Governors Really All Republicans? - 2023-04-24T21:48:35+00:00
Congress returned from recess last week to two ongoing conflicts. One was Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s absence from the Senate, stalling the process by which Democrats can approve their judicial nominees. The other was what to do about the debt ceiling, which has already been breached and could lead to the U.S. government running out of […]

Live From New York: Will AI Replace This Podcast? - 2023-04-21T22:55:26+00:00
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast held a live taping at The Bell House in Brooklyn on Wednesday night, its first return to a live venue in New York City since the pandemic. Nate Silver and Galen Druke dissect a recent poll suggesting 30 percent of New Yorkers want to leave the state, challenge ChatGPT to see […]

Live From New York: It’s The FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast! - 2023-04-21T16:27:59+00:00
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast held a live taping at The Bell House in Brooklyn on Wednesday night, its first return to a live venue in New York City since the pandemic. Nate Silver and Galen Druke dissect a recent poll suggesting 30 percent of New Yorkers want to leave the state, challenge ChatGPT to see […]

How Our Presidential Endorsement Tracker Works - 2023-04-18T10:00:00+00:00
References Why It Matters That Trump Is Leading The 2024 Primary Field In Endorsements / We’re Tracking 2020 Presidential Endorsements. Here’s Why They Probably Still Matter. / The Party Decides The Details We consider an endorsement to be a public display or pronouncement of support that articulates or strongly implies that a candidate is the […]

Do You Buy That … Last Week’s Election In Wisconsin Was The Most Important Election Of 2023? - 2023-04-11T14:33:34+00:00
Nate Silver breaks down the impact of the Wisconsin Supreme Court election on the GOP on ABC News’s “This Week.”

How Concerned Are Americans About The Pitfalls Of AI? - 2023-04-10T23:19:06+00:00
In part 3 of this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, the crew discuss a recent poll on AI and why politicians have been slow to regulate it in the latest GUOP/BUOP.

Republicans Amplified Pro-Gun Control Protesters In Tennessee - 2023-04-10T23:18:19+00:00
In part 2 of this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, the crew turns its attention to the recent expulsion of two Tennessee lawmakers from the state House for their role in recent gun control protests.

What’s Next In The Abortion Drug Case - 2023-04-10T23:16:31+00:00
In part 1 of this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, the crew discuss the recent ruling from a federal judge in Texas that would revoke FDA approval of a drug commonly used in medication abortions.

Politics Podcast: The Politics Of AI - 2023-04-10T22:18:33+00:00
How concerned, if at all, are you about the possibility that AI will cause the end of the human race on Earth? And more importantly for the purposes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, is that a good or bad use of polling? In this installment, the crew discuss how reflective of public opinion a recent […]

Will Trump’s Indictment Matter In 2024? - 2023-03-31T16:32:38+00:00
In this emergency installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to news that former President Donald Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury in a case involving hush money payments to porn actor Stormy Daniels. They discuss the possible political implications and what will come next in the case.

Emergency Politics Podcast: Trump Is Indicted - 2023-03-31T15:41:03+00:00
In this emergency installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to news that former President Donald Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury in a case involving hush money payments to porn actor Stormy Daniels. They discuss the possible political implications and what will come next in the case. You can listen […]

Bank Bailout Politics 2.0 - 2023-03-20T23:03:23+00:00
In part 2 of this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew looks back at the bailout of American banks during the 2007-’08 financial crisis.

20 Years After The Iraq Invasion, Are Americans More Skeptical Of Getting Involved Abroad? - 2023-03-20T23:02:53+00:00
In part 1 of this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew looks back at the 2003 invasion of Iraq as the country marks the 20th anniversary of the Iraq War.

Politics Podcast: The 2000s Called, They Want Their Politics Back - 2023-03-20T21:52:59+00:00
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew looks back at two of the most notable American political decisions of the 21st century: the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the bailout of American banks during the 2007-’08 financial crisis. Both feel relevant today, as the country marks the 20th anniversary of the Iraq […]

Polls Haven’t Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998 - 2023-03-13T22:53:02+00:00
In part 1 of this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, the crew explains why the polls in 2022 had one of its most successful election cycles in U.S. history.

Politics Podcast: This Is The Best Pollster In America - 2023-03-13T20:48:43+00:00
Polling had its most accurate election cycle in at least 25 years in 2022. That may come as a surprise to election watchers who suggested that the polls had a notable pro-Republican bias. But in this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew explains the numbers behind that conclusion. The finding suggests that, despite […]

2023 March Madness Predictions - 2023-03-12T23:14:31+00:00
FiveThirtyEight 2023 March Madness Predictions In-game win probabilities and chances of advancing, updating live.

What Would Happen If Trump Was A Third-Party Candidate In 2024? - 2023-03-09T22:00:54+00:00
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, Galen Druke and Nate Silver open up the mailbag and answer listener questions about politics and polling. They cover American skepticism of artificial intelligence — according to one poll, only 9 percent of Americans say it will do more good than harm to society — and consider […]

Politics Podcast: Few Americans Think AI Will Do More Good Than Harm - 2023-03-09T20:28:22+00:00
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke and Nate Silver open up the mailbag and answer listener questions about politics and polling. They cover American skepticism of artificial intelligence — according to one poll, only 9 percent of Americans say it will do more good than harm to society — and consider […]

Politics

Politics – FiveThirtyEight -

What Went Down In The First GOP Presidential Debate - 2023-08-23T23:54:45+00:00

Economics

Economics – FiveThirtyEight -

Tell Us What the Resumption of Student Loan Payments Means For You - 2023-07-21T12:00:00+00:00
Student loan payments are scheduled to begin again this October after a pause of more than three years. Because of a Supreme Court decision last month, these payments will resume without a forgiveness plan from the Biden administration that would have wiped out up to $20,000 from some borrowers’ balances. We want to know more […]

Congress And Biden Are Playing With Fire In The Debt Ceiling Standoff - 2023-05-10T17:13:07+00:00
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst): Could an economic cataclysm be just a few weeks away? Experts are warning that could indeed happen if the U.S. doesn’t raise the debt ceiling, the statutory limit on how much money the federal government can borrow […]

Why An Aging Population Might Not Doom The American Economy - 2023-04-13T10:00:00+00:00
The American economy is booming and robust. Just look at the chart below, which shows that the overall unemployment rate — the share of people within the labor force who are without work but are looking for it — is lower than it’s been in more than 50 years: But wait! Americans just don’t want […]

The Fed’s Fight Against Inflation Could Cost Black Workers The Most - 2023-03-30T10:00:00+00:00
When the world grinded to a halt back in March 2020, one of the most tried and true rules of the U.S. economy once again reared its ugly head: When the economy goes into crisis, Black workers are disproportionately harmed — and are often the first to be affected. Unemployment spiked for everyone in April […]

What Does the Silicon Valley Bank Collapse Mean For The Economy? - 2023-03-14T10:00:00+00:00
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. amelia.td (Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, senior reporter): On Friday, financial regulators announced that they were taking control of Silicon Valley Bank, signaling the largest bank collapse since the global financial crisis of 2008. California regulators closed the bank and put the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation […]

Why Is 2 Percent The Federal Reserve’s Magic Number For Inflation? - 2023-03-09T11:00:38+00:00
Transcript Santul Nerkar: Inflation in America is high. You’ve probably noticed when you’ve gone to the grocery store or gas station. But ordinary Americans aren’t the only ones unhappy with our current 6 percent inflation rate. The Federal Reserve isn’t thrilled, either. The number that the Fed would like to see — its target inflation […]

The Fed’s Inflation Goal Is Completely Arbitrary - 2023-03-09T11:00:00+00:00
Over the past 18 months, inflation has dominated our understanding of the pandemic economy. Americans have endured the highest yearly price increases in four decades, from soup to nuts — literally. Even now, as experts and forecasters worry that the economy might dip into recession, observers also remain dismayed about the relative stickiness of inflation. […]

The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive - 2023-03-03T11:00:00+00:00
Three years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, remote and hybrid work are as popular as ever. Only 6 percent of employees able to do their jobs remotely want to return to the office full time, according to a Gallup survey published in August. The vast majority of “remote-capable” workers want to spend at […]

Are We Headed For A Recession Or Not? - 2023-02-28T11:00:00+00:00
Inflation isn’t under control, and we’re heading for a recession. Except, wait: The latest jobs report indicates that the labor market is healthier than it’s been in years. So maybe we’re heading for the fabled “soft landing” as the Federal Reserve tries to curb inflation. Except, wait: That jobs report was too good, which means […]

Which Republicans Could Vote For A Debt Ceiling Increase? - 2023-02-22T11:00:00+00:00
Nothing is certain in this life, but the United States will definitely need to raise its debt ceiling later this year to avoid a potentially calamitous debt default. On one side, President Biden and Democrats want a “clean” debt limit increase, while Republicans want future decreases in spending included in any deal. To avoid a […]

Why So Many States Want to Ban China From Owning Farmland - 2023-02-16T11:00:00+00:00
The spy balloon spotted over Montana wasn’t the first recent incident to spark fears about national security and espionage in the U.S. Only a few years ago, a Chinese billionaire named Sun Guangxin planned to build a wind farm on part of 140,000 acres his company had amassed in southwest Texas, near Laughlin Air Force […]

How This Debt Ceiling Debate Could End - 2023-02-14T11:00:00+00:00
Political battles in Washington sometimes feature the hallmarks of a bad sequel that uses the same narrative threads as its predecessor — just with less verve and imagination. In 2023, it’s taking the form of another round of drama over the debt ceiling. Congressional Republicans say they won’t back a debt ceiling hike without spending […]

Who Americans Usually Blame After Showdowns Over Federal Spending - 2023-02-08T11:00:00+00:00
Playing chicken with the national economy is not unusual for Congress and the president. There was the time that former President Donald Trump ground the government to a halt because he wanted money for his border wall. Oh, and the time that tea party Republicans threatened to send the U.S. into debt default if Congress […]

Rents Are Still Higher Than Before The Pandemic — And Assistance Programs Are Drying Up - 2023-01-09T11:00:00+00:00
Cleveland is one of the poorest cities in the country. It’s far from the expensive coastal cities like New York City and San Francisco, where astronomically high rents are common. Cleveland doesn’t fit the stereotype of a city people want to move to; in fact, it has been losing population since the 1950s. But since […]

The Numbers That Defined 2022 - 2022-12-30T11:00:00+00:00
What a year 2022 has been. There was so … much … news. We saw record-high inflation, war in Ukraine, a landmark Supreme Court session, continuing effects of the pandemic, the Winter Olympics, the death of Queen Elizabeth II, the World Cup and, of course, the midterms. In typical FiveThirtyEight fashion, we’ve been reflecting on […]

The U.S. Poverty Rate Hit A Record Low — But Don’t Expect It To Stay That Way - 2022-12-16T11:00:27+00:00
This video is part of our series “The Numbers That Defined 2022.” Transcript One of the most important numbers of the year that you might not have heard of is 7.8 percent. That’s the share of Americans who were living in poverty in 2021, according to the most recent supplemental poverty rate, which was released […]

Americans Generally Support Unions — And Averting A Rail Strike - 2022-12-09T11:00:00+00:00
When President Biden signed a bill to prevent a rail-worker strike this past Friday, it was only the latest in a series of union actions that have gotten national attention in the past few years. Starbucks and Amazon workers are trying to unionize around the country. Nationwide, 78,000 workers went on strike in the first […]

Biden Is Very Unpopular. It May Not Tell Us Much About The Midterms. - 2022-07-15T10:00:00+00:00
This week, a Siena College/New York Times poll showed President Biden with just a 33 percent approval rating, a result so poor that it touched off speculation — including from yours truly — about whether he would even run again in 2024. The Siena/New York Times number is on the low end of the polling […]

FiveThirtyEight Is Hiring A Temporary Full-Time Video Producer - 2022-06-03T10:00:00+00:00
FiveThirtyEight is seeking a temporary Video Producer to join our team full-time from mid-July through mid-November. This person will pitch, storyboard and edit videos about U.S. politics, filling an important role in our coverage of the 2022 midterm elections. The Video Producer will report to and work with the Senior Video Producer to direct and […]

We’re Hiring A Part-Time Research Assistant - 2022-05-13T14:35:38+00:00
FiveThirtyEight is seeking a diligent, well-organized and kind Research Assistant to help track down and input polls and other election data, as well as contribute research to political stories and projects. This part-time position plays a critical role in supporting FiveThirtyEight’s political coverage and interactive projects like our presidential approval tracker and pollster ratings. You’ll […]

Sports

Sports – FiveThirtyEight -

How Consistent Was Every Premier League Lineup This Season? - 2023-05-23T16:30:14+00:00
How Consistent Was Every Premier League Lineup This Season?What our newest metric STABLE can tell us about Arsenal’s surprising title challenge — and Chelsea’s face-plant. By Ryan Best Before the 2022-23 Premier League campaign kicked off, there was a buzz around St. James’ Park that hadn’t been felt in quite some time: optimism. After years […]

Andrew McCutchen Is Hitting It Big Again With The Pirates - 2023-04-26T14:26:39+00:00
A year after Albert Pujols found the fountain of youth and spent his final season setting major league pitching on fire, the old-guy star of the 2023 season hasn’t been a positional contemporary like Joey Votto or Miguel Cabrera. Instead, April’s ultimate veteran revival has belonged to Andrew McCutchen of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Much like […]

Can Fernando Tatis Jr. Still Mash After A Year Away From MLB? - 2023-04-25T10:00:00+00:00
Bob Melvin played 10 years in the big leagues, and has managed for another 20. Yet the San Diego Padres’ skipper freely admitted that he has no idea exactly what to expect from Fernando Tatis Jr., now that the 24-year-old superstar has returned to the field after missing the entire 2022 season. “Based on what […]

Why Is Anthony Richardson Suddenly The NFL Draft’s Hottest Prospect? - 2023-04-24T10:00:00+00:00
Each spring, NFL prospects rocket up mock draft boards for both obvious and inscrutable reasons. Sometimes it’s due to a player’s performance at the NFL combine or pro day where they flash unexpected athleticism (think receiver Denzel Mims’s 4.38 second 40-yard dash at the combine in 2020 or linebacker Jamin Davis and his 4.37 pro-day […]

The Bucks Would Be In Big Trouble Without Brook Lopez - 2023-04-21T10:00:00+00:00
When two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo tumbled to the court in the first quarter of the Milwaukee Bucks’ series-opening loss against the Miami Heat, the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference knew it would need to rally around the rest of its core. “Everyone’s ready,” said center Brook Lopez of the challenge. And as it […]

Busting 4 Major Myths About Referees In The NBA Playoffs - 2023-04-20T10:00:00+00:00
The NBA playoffs come with an intensified microscope on everyone, referees maybe most of all. Typically an afterthought (with some exceptions) during the regular season, NBA officials tend to be thrust into the limelight in the spring. Seemingly every postseason comes with a new incident or think piece on the sad state of NBA officiating. […]

How Mikal Bridges Went From Supporting Player To Star - 2023-04-19T10:00:00+00:00
The Brooklyn Nets dropped both Games 1 and 2 of their series with the Philadelphia 76ers on the road, and they face a tough climb to come back and make this a competitive series — let alone advance to the second round. The Nets were heavy underdogs coming into the matchup, so their 2-0 deficit […]

These 3 Former MLB Prospects Have Gone From Busts To Busting Out - 2023-04-18T14:29:40+00:00
In 2021, Jarred Kelenic was the No. 4 prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline. That placed him one spot ahead of a fellow Seattle Mariners outfield prospect, Julio Rodriguez, at No. 5. But while Rodriguez would soon become one of the most awe-inspiring young mashers in years — and sign a huge, complicated contract […]

The Rays’ Dominance Goes Even Deeper Than Their 13-0 Start - 2023-04-17T14:58:06+00:00
When we talk about the Tampa Bay Rays, it’s usually regarding their plucky ability to surprise the baseball world and win more games than expected despite a meager payroll, sparse attendance and imposing division rivals. But they’re seldom described as a clear-cut powerhouse dominating the league, without any of those small-market qualifiers or paeans to […]

Who Won The 2023 WNBA Draft? - 2023-04-14T10:00:00+00:00
Every WNBA draft has the potential to reshape the league. But Monday’s picks might carry more of that capability than most. Last year’s worst teams just got a lot better. The Indiana Fever added a massive amount of frontcourt help, headlined by No. 1 overall pick Aliyah Boston, plus the best pure point guard and […]

Can Anyone Stop The Big, Bad Bruins? - 2023-04-13T10:00:00+00:00
The puck drops on the 2023 NHL playoffs on Monday, which means the most grueling postseason in all of professional sports will soon commence. In anticipation, let’s run down the list of top Stanley Cup contenders (every team with at least a 5 percent chance, according to our NHL predictions model) and detail why they […]

The Mets Assembled The Most Expensive Baseball Team Ever. Is That Enough To Make Them MLB’s Best Team? - 2023-04-12T10:00:00+00:00
As the 2022 season ended, the New York Mets and owner Steve Cohen were wrapping up a major-league payroll record by shelling out about $430 million in salaries plus luxury tax penalties. Then Cohen doubled down, going on a further spending spree in the run-up to 2023. In free agency, the Mets added future Hall […]

Our New Live In-Game Win Probabilities Are Here For The NBA Playoffs - 2023-04-11T10:00:00+00:00
The NBA playoffs are almost here, with the play-in tournament tipping off later tonight. But while the regular season was careening toward a dramatic finish, we were hard at work creating a live in-game win probability model — and we’re pretty damn excited to share it. We officially added this model to our forecast page […]

No Play-In Team Has Won An NBA Playoff Series. Will That Change This Season? - 2023-04-11T10:00:00+00:00
As the NBA’s annual play-in tournament plays out over the next few days, we’re sure to hear a lot of talk about which of the teams involved is the greatest threat to “make some noise” in the playoffs. The fact that three of those teams have made the NBA Finals in recent years (and one […]

It’s Rough Out There In Dallas. But It’s Not Kyrie Irving’s Fault. - 2023-04-10T14:59:29+00:00
Kyrie Irving’s tenure with the Dallas Mavericks could not have had a brighter beginning. Following a Feb. 6 trade, Irving faced the Los Angeles Clippers without Dallas’s superstar leader Luka Doncic alongside him, and Uncle Drew scored 24 points in the win over a championship contender. So who could have predicted that such a promising […]

Will One Of Golf’s Big 3 Win The Masters? - 2023-04-07T10:00:00+00:00
Before the Masters Tournament comes around every year in early April, it’s common for one golfer to sit head and shoulders above the rest. In most current fans’ minds, that player was Tiger Woods — who had two separate reigns of at least 250 weeks at No. 1 in the Official World Golf Rankings between […]

Your MLB Team Just Started Hot (Or Cold). How Much Does That Matter? - 2023-04-05T13:05:15+00:00
It warms this writer’s baseball-loving heart to see the MLB standings finally beginning to fill in anew this spring. Yes, that’s with an emphasis on “beginning” — we’re only a week into the season, after all. The temptation is always to overanalyze these super-early results, since it’s all we’ve seen of the fun new rules, […]

UConn Left No Doubt About Its Greatness. But Did The Huskies Finally Win Respect? - 2023-04-04T17:15:18+00:00
With apologies to fans of Florida Atlantic, Miami and San Diego State, three-quarters of the 2023 men’s Final Four didn’t look like they belonged there. One year after we got four of the game’s preeminent programs, this year’s event welcomed three programs that entered March Madness with a higher combined seed total (19) than all-time […]

LSU Played The Perfect Game To Take Down Caitlin Clark And Iowa - 2023-04-03T16:19:57+00:00
There were many impressive things about LSU’s victory over Iowa in the women’s NCAA Tournament championship game Sunday — from the Tigers’ first basketball title in school history to Kim Mulkey’s turnaround of the program within two years of arriving in Baton Rouge, and forward Angel Reese’s ascendance to first-team All-America status immediately after transferring […]

What To Watch For In The Men’s Final Four - 2023-03-31T10:00:00+00:00
One year after arguably the most blue-blooded Final Four of all time, the 2023 men’s NCAA Tournament national semifinal slate looks uniquely green. The four-team field includes three first-time participants (Florida Atlantic Owls, San Diego State Aztecs and Miami Hurricanes) and a blue blood-lite program (Connecticut Huskies) that is making its first trip to the […]

Science

Science & Health – FiveThirtyEight -

Earth Day Is The Victim Of Its Own Success - 2023-04-21T10:00:00+00:00
Hey everybody, it’s Earth Day again. Time to kick off your shoes, stretch your toes in the warm grass and inhale the stench of a million PR firms trying desperately to capitalize off your positive impressions of the natural world. Whether it’s computer companies promising to make their products (which are full of plastics and […]

Red States Are Trying To Fight The World On Climate - 2023-04-20T10:00:00+00:00
State Rep. Jeff Hoverson didn’t want anyone getting in the way of using fossil fuels in North Dakota. Not the United Nations. Not international nonprofits. Certainly not the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. So he made a law to stop them. In March, the North Dakota legislature passed a bill that Hoverson co-authored with a […]

Virtual Abortions Surged After Roe Was Overturned — But The Texas Ruling Could Change That - 2023-04-11T17:01:57+00:00
UPDATE (April 14, 4:40 p.m.): As of April 14, the Supreme Court has issued a temporary stay on restrictions of mifepristone while the justices evaluate whether they will issue a formal stay. Two days prior, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals issued a partial stay of Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk’s ruling, affecting only his decision to […]

Over 66,000 People Couldn’t Get An Abortion In Their Home State After Dobbs - 2023-04-11T12:00:00+00:00
A few weeks ago, Jessica Marchbank got a call from a woman whose abortion had just been canceled. The woman had driven more than two hours from Louisville, Kentucky, to Indianapolis, leaving three children at home. “She’s crying, saying, ‘How am I going to make this work?’” said Marchbank, who is the state programs officer […]

A Texas Judge’s Decision Could Reduce Abortion Access … Again - 2023-04-08T00:05:03+00:00
UPDATE (April 14, 4:40 p.m.): As of April 14, the Supreme Court has issued a temporary stay on restrictions of mifepristone while the justices evaluate whether they will issue a formal stay. Two days prior, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals issued a partial stay of Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk’s ruling, affecting only his decision to […]

‘Tis The Season … For Gonorrhea? - 2023-03-22T10:00:00+00:00
We thought we were safe. The flu season was tapering off. Spring was in the air (sort of, some places). As flu cases flatlined through January and February, Americans breathed a sigh of relief, kicked up our collective feet … and immediately realized we’d accidentally ingested norovirus and made a break for the restroom. Welcome […]

Some GOP Legislators Are Trying To Show They’re Pro-Life, Not Just Anti-Abortion - 2023-03-09T16:13:09+00:00
In their first full legislative sessions after the Supreme Court overruled Roe v. Wade, Republican state legislators are being pressed on what “pro-life” really means. There are plenty of bills focusing on abortion restrictions — particularly in the Republican-controlled states where abortion is still largely legal — but GOP lawmakers are also being pushed to […]

Does It Matter Where COVID-19 Came From? - 2023-03-07T11:00:00+00:00
The Department of Energy says COVID-19 was caused by a lab leak. But that doesn’t mean COVID-19 was definitely caused by a lab leak. In fact, the agency’s report, which made headlines last week, states it has “low confidence” in its own conclusion. Scientific evidence, on the other hand, has overwhelmingly pointed toward a natural […]

Why An Abortion Drug Approved 20 Years Ago Might Get Yanked From The Market - 2023-02-23T18:57:36+00:00
UPDATE (April 14, 4:40 p.m.): As of April 14, the Supreme Court has issued a temporary stay on restrictions of the drug while the justices evaluate whether they will issue a formal stay, following an April 7 ruling by Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk that invalidated the FDA’s 2000 approval of the drug. There are two rulings […]

Why Most Gun Laws Aren’t Backed Up By Evidence - 2023-02-06T11:00:00+00:00
In the first month of 2023, 25 people lost their lives in four mass shootings in California over just eight days. It’s a grim statistic, made all the more distressing when you consider the fact that California has one of the lowest gun death rates in the entire country. This is what a safe state […]

Teaching In The Age Of AI Means Getting Creative - 2023-01-23T11:00:00+00:00
Alarm bells seemed to sound in teachers’ lounges across America late last year with the debut of ChatGPT — an AI chatbot that was both easy to use and capable of producing dialogue-like responses, including longer-form writing and essays. Some writers and educators went so far as to even forecast the death of student papers. […]

Can You Make Winter Less Dark? - 2022-12-22T11:00:26+00:00
If you live in the Northern Hemisphere, there’s a decent chance that it’s dark outside as you’re reading this. Bleak midwinter, indeed. The darkest part of the year is preceded by the switch to standard time, which sacrifices the evening sun in favor of earlier dawns. The results can feel dismally dim. That — plus […]

33 Cool Charts We Made In 2022 - 2022-12-20T11:00:00+00:00
In 2022, FiveThirtyEight’s visual journalists covered the midterm elections, the end of Roe v. Wade and sports stories ranging from the World Cup to changes in Major League Baseball’s pitch timing rules. Here are some of the most interesting — and weird and colorful and complicated — charts we made in the last 12 months. […]

The Butterfly Effect - 2022-12-15T11:00:00+00:00
It used to be, if you wanted to see a Poweshiek skipperling butterfly, the thing to do was go out on the prairie and stare into the middle distance, like you were trying to see a sailboat buried in a Magic Eye painting. Just watch, and wait, and they’d appear. Back then, more than 20 […]

Can Focusing On Climate Change Help Win Elections? - 2022-10-17T10:00:00+00:00
“Our generation grew up watching as the climate crisis got worse and worse and politicians did nothing.” That might sound like a quote from teen climate activist Greta Thunberg, but it’s actually the opening line for a new series of political ads appearing in multiple states in the lead-up to the 2022 midterms — ads […]

We’re Looking For A Freelance Audio Editor For Our Politics Podcast - 2022-10-10T18:46:39+00:00
The next few months are going to be exciting — and busy! — for the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast. We’re seeking a freelance audio editor to work two days a week and help make our Politics podcast sound crisp, clear and well-paced. Responsibilities: Edit two hour-long podcasts per week, on Mondays and Thursdays (and some Wednesdays). […]

How Natural Disasters Can Change A Politician - 2022-09-30T18:36:49+00:00
In September 2017, Hurricane Irma swept across the southern tip of Florida, swamping what was then the state’s 26th Congressional District. The following July, that district’s Republican representative, Carlos Curbelo, introduced a bill that would tax greenhouse-gas emissions to help reduce the impact of climate change on his hurricane-prone constituency. Curbelo’s party affiliation raised eyebrows […]

How Waffle House Helps Us Respond To Hurricanes - 2022-09-29T17:36:38+00:00
This 2016 story followed a team of Waffle House operations analysts as they decided whether to close any of the chain’s locations in preparation for Hurricane Matthew, a Category 5 storm that ended up affecting the Florida coast as a Category 2 storm. This week, as at least 21 Waffle House locations in Florida closed […]

Why Monkeypox Wasn’t Another COVID-19 - 2022-09-14T10:00:00+00:00
When you’ve lived through two-plus years of a pandemic, it can feel weird to see “disease” and “good news” in the same sentence. But here we are, watching a disease decline, with cautious optimism. Two weeks ago, the World Health Organization announced that monkeypox cases in Europe had fallen so fast, the outbreak could be […]

Life

Culture – FiveThirtyEight -

So Long, And Thanks For All The Riddles - 2023-06-30T12:00:00+00:00
Welcome to The Riddler. Every week over the past eight years, we have offered up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Usually, two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you […]

The Final Battle For Riddler Nation - 2023-06-23T12:00:00+00:00
Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct […]

Can You Solve Middle-Square Madness? - 2023-06-16T12:00:00+00:00
Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct […]

Can You Defeat A Troll With Your Calculator? - 2023-06-09T12:00:00+00:00
Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct […]

Can You Calculate The Long Shot? - 2023-06-02T12:00:00+00:00
Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct […]

Can You Game The Currency Exchange? - 2023-05-26T12:00:00+00:00
Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct […]

How Much Money Can You Pull Out Of A Hat? - 2023-05-19T12:00:00+00:00
Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct […]

Can You Save The World? - 2023-05-12T12:00:00+00:00
Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct […]

Can You Help The Grasshopper Get Home? - 2023-05-05T12:00:00+00:00
Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct […]

Who’s Excited For The Coronation Of King Charles? - 2023-05-05T10:00:00+00:00
Tomorrow is Coronation Day in the United Kingdom — a special day when people around the world can take a breath and contemplate essential questions like: Which is to say, it’s a spectacle. A spectacle loaded with nostalgia and warm patriotic feelings for some — and for others, a reminder of the monarchy’s expensive and […]

Can You Turn Digits Into Numbers? - 2023-04-21T12:00:00+00:00
Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct […]

Can You ‘Waffle’ Your Way To A Proof? - 2023-04-14T12:00:00+00:00
Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct […]

Ceci N’Est Pas Une Pollapalooza - 2023-04-14T10:00:00+00:00
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. What is art? According to the Russian writer Leo Tolstoy, the activity of art is “to evoke in oneself a feeling one has once experienced, and having evoked it in oneself, then, by means of movements, lines, colors, sounds, or forms expressed in words, so to transmit that […]

Can You Rescue Your Crew? - 2023-04-07T12:00:00+00:00
Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct […]

How Many Squares Can You Squeeze? - 2023-03-31T12:00:00+00:00
Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct […]

The Riddler Meets Jeopardy! - 2023-03-24T12:00:00+00:00
Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct […]

Which Taylor Swift Album Is The Most Popular? - 2023-03-24T10:00:00+00:00
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. The oldest poll I could find on Taylor Swift was from 2010. Even then, it was clear she was on her way to being a pop-culture phenomenon. When CBS News/60 Minutes/Vanity Fair asked American adults which of five musicians they would most like to have dinner with, 22 […]

Can You Stack The Deck With Suits? - 2023-03-17T12:00:00+00:00
Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct […]

There’s A Racial Bias on Police Facebook Pages - 2023-03-13T10:00:00+00:00
There was nothing overtly biased about the way the Wilkes-Barre Township Police Department described a mugging on its Facebook page in February 2019. The first post simply described a Black suspect who was alleged to have threatened a victim with a gun and demanded cash in this small community in northeastern Pennsylvania. Two later Facebook […]

Red States Are Fighting Their Blue Cities - 2023-03-13T10:00:00+00:00
In the second half of 2021, housing prices rose faster in Florida than in any other state. In some cities, rents soared by as much as 30 percent that summer. This put an enormous strain on families living in Florida and already struggling to pay rent, especially those who worked in the tourism industry for […]

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