Toledo Weather - Tue, Apr 29, 2014

My comments in this thread:
http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/176263/29Apr2014/Where_are_my_weather_gurus__Input_needed_please__

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I get my info from JustaSooner and http://toledotalk.com/weather

At Noon time, it's partly cloudy and around 70 degrees, and according to the 7-day forecast, this afternoon will be the warmest weather for the next week.

The chance of precip for this afternoon has dropped from 40% to 20%.

Since it's the first practice, I would assume the kids would be itching to get outside and play ball.

Based upon the info below as of Noon, I would keep an eye on a radar image like you suggested and take my chances with enjoying today's weather. Hopefully, the sunshine and breeze will dry the field after this morning's rainfall.

In a sport like baseball or softball that at times, could cause a lot of standing around, I would prefer to play or practice in 70-degree weather than 50-degree weather.

Check the radar and the Storm Prediction Center between 4:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m., especially for mesoscale discussions and watches.

http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/hazardous-weather-outlook.html

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
533 am edt tue apr 29 2014

a front will move across the region later today and this evening. showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of this front. the storm prediction center has indicated that there is a slight risk for severe weather as this activity moves through. right now it appears the main severe weather threat will be from large hail and damaging straight line winds.

http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecast.html

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Apr 29, 2014 12:02 pm

This Afternoon: A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 4pm. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. South wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after midnight. Some storms could be severe, with large hail and damaging winds. Low around 52. Southeast wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/hourly-forecast.html

Toledo Hourly Forecast

5:00 pm - Apr 29, 2014
temp: 72 F
wind: S 16 mph
precip chance 31%
cloud cover amount 55%

6:00 pm - Apr 29, 2014
temp: 72 F
wind: S 15 mph
precip chance 36%
cloud cover amount 62%

7:00 pm - Apr 29, 2014
temp: 71 F
wind: SSE 13 mph
precip chance 45%
cloud cover amount 77%

http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/area-forecast-discussions.html

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1002 am edt tue apr 29 2014

not sure how fast the showers/storms will redevelop this afternoon as there will be a period of subsidence likely. nice looking short wave rounding the bottom of the trough over the lower ms valley as we speak heading toward the ohio valley this evening so the gun is loaded.

worried that dew points will drop too much (into the 40s) across northwest ohio to readily initiate new showers/storms. the best slot might be across north central or northeast ohio where dewpoints may remain in the 50s. also some concern about the timing...if it takes too long to redevelop it may be toward dark or after dark which may lessen the chance for severe.

(Worried? Some concern? I think the weather person was hoping for severe weather. Lower dew points and later timing for development across northwest would mean a lower chance for severe thunderstorms. That's a positive, I think.)

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1225 pm edt tue apr 29 2014

not sure how fast the cumulus will fill back in across nw ohio but it will as it is cooling aloft.

http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/current-conditions.html

Toledo Express Airport

Apr 29, 2014 10:52 am
Weather : Mostly Cloudy
Temperature : 65 F
Humidity : 84%
Wind Speed : SSW 9 mph
Barometer : 29.56 in
Dewpoint: 60 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Our dew point temp was relatively high around 11:00 a.m., but dew points will drop as the afternoon temps warm.

Current Toledo Express Airport conditions

Apr 29, 2014 11:52 am
Weather : Mostly Cloudy
Temperature : 69 F
Humidity : 68%
Wind Speed : SW 10 mph - Gust 17 mph
Barometer : 29.58 in
Dewpoint: 58 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/convective-outlook.html

These images are not snapshots, so they will change.

Storm Prediction Center's convective outlook for today, shows all of Ohio still in the slight risk for severe thunderstorms.

Tornado chances

Damaging wind chances

Large hail chances

Changing images

SPC mesoscale discussions

http://www.forecast.io/lines

Map of warnings, watches, and advisories

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A few minutes ago, at 12:47 p.m., the SPC issued a mesoscale discussion.

According to radar, the precip is moving to the north-northeast, so this slight severe threat may not reach Toledo.

concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely

probability of watch issuance...20 percent

a marginal severe threat is expected to persist this afternoon across far ne il. the threat should gradually develop nnewd into se wi...lake michigan and sw lower mi. hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats.

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"There's really a lack of instability and moisture in our area ..."

This afternoon, our dew point temps dropped into the 40s as predicted this morning by the Cleveland NWS.

Toledo Express Airport conditions:

Apr 29, 2014 3:52 pm
Weather : A Few Clouds
Temperature : 75 F
Humidity : 36%
Wind Speed : S 12 mph - Gust 26 mph
Dewpoint: 46 F

3:36 p.m. area forecast discussion from the Cle NWS:

will keep thunderstorms in the forecast but there would seem a minimal risk for organized severe storms and will not have it specifically mentioned in the zone forecast.

3:10 p.m. forecast:

Late Afternoon: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. South wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Southeast wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

The Wundermap shows temperatures, reported by the local personal weather stations. At 4:30 p.m., Toledo's temps mostly range from 75 to 77 degrees.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap

You can also configure the map to include radar data.

And they provide it as app for mobile devices.

http://www.wunderground.com/micro/wundermap/

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6:05 p.m. radar snapshot.

Currently, the storms in west central Ohio are not severe, but they are moving north-northeast, so if they hold together, they could bring some rain to the Toledo area this evening, probably a little west of Toledo.

5:50 p.m. special weather statement, regarding the northern most storm in west central Ohio.

...A strong thunderstorm will affect Mercer County through 615 PM EDT...

At 544 PM EDT...radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Fort Recovery... moving north at 40 mph.

Storm hazards include... winds to 40 mph... one half inch diameter hail...

enlarge counties map

#toledo - #weather