Toledo Weather - Wed, Sep 10, 2014

notes: http://jothut.com/cgi-bin/junco.pl/replies/44142

---

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
352 am edt wed sep 10 2014

for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

severe thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight...especially
around and west of interstate 71. the primary severe weather threat
would be damaging winds with a lesser threat for large hail.
atmospheric conditions will also be conducive for a threat of
tornadoes especially over northwest ohio.

.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation will likely be needed.

---

Sep 10, 2014 7:52 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 64 F
Humidity : 78%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 29.90 in
Dewpoint: 57 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

---

Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: Sep 10, 2014 6:11 am

Today: A slight chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 10am. Some storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain. Cloudy, with a high near 81. Breezy, with a south wind 8 to 13 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Some storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain. Low around 60. Breezy, with a southwest wind 18 to 23 mph becoming west 11 to 16 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Thursday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then a slight chance of showers between 7am and 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Northwest wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. North wind 7 to 9 mph.

Friday: A slight chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 64. Northeast wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Night: A chance of showers, mainly after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 61.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 43.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 65.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 46.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.

Monday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.

page created: Sep 10, 2014 - 8:30 a.m. EDT

---

fxus61 kcle 101133
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
733 am edt wed sep 10 2014

synopsis...
low pressure over iowa will move across lake huron pulling a strong
cold front across the area wednesday night. a wave of low pressure
will move up the ohio valley friday night into saturday then high
pressure over the northern plains will move east through the region
sunday and monday.
&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
the question today is how far out ahead of the approaching cold
front will the tsra occur. the latest model runs have qpf rapidly
spreading ese across the cwa between 18z and 00z. will increase pops
more for today. the threat for severe storms still looks good based
on instability and fairly good wind shear. pw's rise back to around
2 inches so locally heavy rain can be expected.
patchy morning fog in the south will dissipate through 10 am.
today will be the last relatively warm day for a while...possibly
the rest of the season based on upper troughing that is going to set
up over the lakes for at least the next 10 days.
&&

short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/...
a final band of tsra with the strong cold front should progress
across the cwa between 06z and 12z so after 12z thu only the se half
of the cwa should still have a threat for rain with the stronger
convection then exiting the cwa.
drier air moves in behind the front along with the leading part of a
much cooler airmass. marginal lake effect conditions start to
develop by the end of thu night so a few shra could break out over
the snowbelt and nearby areas.
a sharp s/w is progged to move east across the lakes fri night into
sat and induce a surface wave that moves up the oh valley. moisture
pools back over the area with widespread shra developing fri night
and continuing into sat before shifting into mainly the east sat
afternoon.
high pressure is shown to be quickly spreading over the area by sat
night but lake effect conditions are possible based on temp
differences. due to wind issues and subsidence from the high will
keep only a slight chance going sat night in the ne.
temps will trend cooler for fri and sat with highs both days mostly
60 to 65 degrees. some spots on sat may not even get to 60 degrees
in the inland east if cloud cover and shra persist. the increasing
clouds fri night should hold up lows in a 45 to 50 range but by sat
night the decreased clouds and light winds will allow for lows in
the low to mid 40s.
&&

long term /sunday through tuesday/...
cool high pressure will be in control of the region on sunday but it
will be shifting off to the east as another upper level trough digs
into the great lakes region. as this trough moves overhead it will
bring an increasing chance of showers. the better chances of the
showers will be monday night into tuesday. the showers may linger
downwind of lake erie into tuesday evening. the next area of high
pressure will then dry things out tuesday night into wednesday.
it will be cool through the long term with temperatures below
seasonal averages. highs at most locations will remain in the 60s.
however by tuesday and wednesday the western county warning area
will be near to slightly above 70.
&&

aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
some patchy mvfr fog across the eastern half of the region will
burn off quickly.
gusty southerly winds will develop by mid to late morning as a
cold front moves toward the region. wind gusts may reach 30 to 35
knots near the lakeshore from cleveland and points west for the
afternoon and evening.
the main concern will be the strength of the thunderstorms that
develop this afternoon/evening. have moved up the timing of
thunderstorms today with current radar trends already showing
showers and thunderstorms into central indiana. the faster timing
could end up being a good thing since thicker cloud cover will
decrease the instability. these showers and thunderstorms will
then slowly track across the region through the overnight.
outlook...non vfr possible wednesday night into thursday in
showers and thunderstorms. lower ceilings may linger over ne ohio
and nw pa into friday and saturday.
&&

marine...
low pressure will move into the central great lakes today with
increasing south to southwest winds expected into this evening.
winds will increase the earliest across the western basin with
southerly winds in the 15 to 25 knot range. winds will be offshore
so waves should not build all that much. since winds are expected to
be in the 15 to 25 knot range we hoisted the small craft advisory
for this afternoon.
winds will eventually shift around to the west and northwest in the
wake of the cold front tonight. the front should be east of the lake
by 12z thursday. the remainder of the lake will need to have a small
craft advisory at some point this evening into the overnight. later
shifts will issue it when it is needed. the cold advection in the
wake of the front will keep larger waves (4-6 feet) going into at
least thursday afternoon/evening. as high pressure ridges over the
region winds will become northeast by friday morning. this will set
up a long fetch into the western half of the lake. if the pressure
gradient can remain tight enough we may need small craft advisories
again friday into saturday. more details to come on this scenario
the next couple days.
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front
and track across much of the lake. a few of these thunderstorms will
become strong enough to warrant the issuance of special marine
warnings for this evening and possibly into the overnight.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 9 am edt
thursday for lez142>145.
&&
$$
synopsis...adams
near term...adams
short term...adams
long term...mullen
aviation...mullen
marine...mullen

---

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1223 am cdt wed sep 10 2014

valid 101200z - 111200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms across parts of the
ozarks...mid ms valley...lower oh valley...and srn great lakes...

...summary...
thunderstorms with some severe are expected to develop along a cold
front from the southern great lakes southwestward into the mid
mississippi valley and ozarks. damaging winds will be the primary
threat wednesday afternoon into the early evening.

...mid ms valley/lower oh valley/srn great lakes...
a shortwave trough embedded in west to southwest flow aloft will
move enewd into the great lakes today. at the sfc...a low will move
newd from the upper ms valley into the cntrl great lakes region as a
trailing cold front advances sewd across the mid ms valley. a large
area of thunderstorm activity may be ongoing this morning ahead of
the front in the mid ms valley. this activity should gradually
spread ewd this afternoon. as sfc temps heat up across the warm
sector during the day...convection should gradually organize into a
linear mcs with storms moving ewd into the lower oh valley and srn
great lakes region.

forecast soundings across the warm sector at 00z/thursday for
indianapolis indiana and st louis mo show mlcape in the 1200 to 2000
j/kg range with sfc dewpoints in the lower 70s f. this combined with
unidirectional winds and ample speed shear in the mid-levels should
be favorable for squall-line development. the stronger cells
embedded in the line should have a wind damage threat. the
combination of thermodynamics and shear appear to be maximized in
scntrl il and wcntrl indiana by late afternoon suggesting that the
wind damage threat could be greatest in that area.

...ozark plateau...
an upper-level trough will move ewd into the srn and cntrl high
plains today. at the sfc...a cold front will advance sewd across wrn
mo...se ks and cntrl ok. a capping inversion should keep convection
from initiating ahead of the front through much of the afternoon. by
late afternoon...the weakening cap and increasing low-level
convergence along the front should allow for thunderstorm
development in parts of the ozarks. forecast soundings at
00z/thursday for springfield mo and fayetteville ar show sfc
dewpoints near 70 f...mlcape of 1000 to 1500 j/kg and enough
deep-layer shear for a marginal wind damage threat. the severe
threat could last for a few hours before a strengthening cap helps
to limit severe potential during the early to mid evening.

..broyles/grams.. 09/10/2014

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z

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http://toledotalk.com/weather/images/mcd1707.gif

md 1707 concerning severe potential...watch possible for ern il..ind...wrn oh

mesoscale discussion 1707
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1034 am cdt wed sep 10 2014

areas affected...ern il..ind...wrn oh

concerning...severe potential...watch possible

valid 101534z - 101730z

probability of watch issuance...40 percent

summary...trends are being monitored for any increase in
thunderstorm activity late this morning through early afternoon for
a conditional tornado threat.

discussion...a leading shortwave trough is currently moving across
nrn il and will continue rapidly newd across indiana...nwrn oh and
lower mi. wind profiles associated with this feature are relatively
strong...with area vwps showing 300-400 m2/s2 0-1 km srh.

around 1430z...a weak thunderstorm showed brief supercell
characteristics over cntrl il...but it appears the primary updraft
has since detached from the boundary layer inflow and has become
elevated...shifting leftward. however...this suggests the
environment is close to being favorable for at least brief
tornadoes...conditional mainly on sufficient boundary layer
destbilization occurring coincident with the leading disturbance.

15z surface analysis shows dewpoints in the 70-71 f range widespread
now across the warm sector and gradually spreading nwd across
indiana and wrn oh. upper 70s to lower 80s temperatures were present
across srn il...and this higher theta-e air should spread nwd later
this morning across indiana. a limiting factor is extensive cloud
cover ahead of the leading band of precipitation...but partial
heating is occurring across swrn indiana.

it is unclear whether destabilization via low-level advection will
be sufficient for further supercell development today before the
aforementioned shortwave trough moves through. once this wave
passes...early potential should be largely over...with any
additional and primarily wind threat focusing swwd along the
trailing cold front.

..jewell/corfidi.. 09/10/2014

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...iln...iwx...ind...lot...ilx...

lat...lon 40448798 41008742 41458634 41618527 41528427 40888379
40178393 39628533 39258655 39148749 39318829 39758843
40448798

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tornado watch outline update for wt 501
nws storm prediction center norman ok
155 pm edt wed sep 10 2014

tornado watch 501 is in effect until 900 pm edt for the
following locations

ohc003-011-017-021-033-037-039-043-051-063-065-069-077-091-095-
101-107-109-113-123-125-135-137-143-147-149-159-161-171-173-175-
110100-
/o.new.kwns.to.a.0501.140910t1755z-140911t0100z/

oh
. ohio counties included are

allen auglaize butler
champaign crawford darke
defiance erie fulton
hancock hardin henry
huron logan lucas
marion mercer miami
montgomery ottawa paulding
preble putnam sandusky
seneca shelby union
van wert williams wood
wyandot
$$

---

flood advisory
national weather service cleveland oh
220 pm edt wed sep 10 2014

ohc095-102215-
/o.new.kcle.fa.y.0062.140910t1820z-140910t2215z/
/00000.0.er.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.oo/
220 pm edt wed sep 10 2014

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a

• flood advisory for heavy rain...
  lucas county in northwest ohio...

• until 615 pm edt

• at 217 pm edt national weather service doppler radar indicated
  heavy rain is falling over the advisory area. the rainfall has been
  heavy enough to produce flooding. low lying and poor drainage areas
  could see ponding water through late afternoon causing problems
  for motorists. additional storms are likely through this evening which
  could extend flooding.

• locations in the advisory include but are not limited to
  holland...oregon...sylvania...toledo...waterville and whitehouse

precautionary/preparedness actions...

do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. the water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely.

&&

lat...lon 4172 8387 4174 8345 4172 8341 4170 8342
4169 8337 4171 8334 4163 8316 4162 8357
4157 8361 4153 8371 4146 8375 4142 8388

$$

---

fxus61 kcle 101929
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
329 pm edt wed sep 10 2014

synopsis...
low pressure over the central great lakes will move northeast
overnight reaching quebec by thursday morning. the low will drag a
strong cold front across the area overnight and early thursday
morning. high pressure will begin to build in thursday and
thursday night however a disturbance aloft will sweep across the
area friday night and saturday.
&&

near term /through tonight/...
tornado watch has been issued for portions of northwest and north
central ohio through 9pm. surface low is over/near nrn lake mi.
the associated cold front extends ssw thru nwrn il and mo. capes
rather low with surface based capes only around 500 j/kg in the
watch area although on the eastern fringe...go up to 1500. shear
on the other hand is significant with 6km shear values 50+kts
moving into the region and 1km shear 35 to 40kts. precip also
efficient with about 1.5 inches in 3 hours. have continued
through the evening with categorical pops west and
central...spreading east through the early evening. will also
continue with the mention of severe and heavy rain west and
central. after 06z or so will drop thunder chances to "chance"
along and se of the front and will just have showers to the west. by
morning the cold front should be close to a keri-kcak-kcvg line
with drying moving in from the northwest. lows overnight upper 50s
northwest to near 60 elsewhere.
&&

short term /thursday through saturday night/...
thursday morning the cold front will be located near a keri-kcak-
kcvg line. will begin with categorical pops far southeastern
counties and will also continue with a chance mention of a
thunderstorm. will have nwrn ohio dry. through the morning will
dry out the southeast and will have no pops for the afternoon as
both the nam and gfs bring in fairly dry air. thursday afternoon
and early thursday night models show high pressure...centered in
montana...building across the lakes and into ohio. the influence
of the high will weaken friday afternoon through saturday morning
however as models develop and move a rather vigorous short upper
trof across the great lakes. associated moisture will spread in
late friday through saturday morning. will bring chance pops back
to nwrn ohio friday evening with most places having chance pops
after midnight. dry will moves in quickly saturday but will need to
hang onto chance pops east in the morning. temps below normal
through the period.
&&

long term /sunday through wednesday/...
models continue to move canadian high pressure across the lower
great lakes sunday...then moving off the east coast on monday. this
will allow trough to swing across the area monday night into
tuesday. ecmwf is a little quicker moving the system through the
area than the gfs. will keep lingering showers in the east for
tuesday morning. after that another large area of high pressure
moves over the lower lakes and remains in place through mid week.
&&

aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
showers with a few embedded tsra moving through this evening
associated with warm front lifting across forecast area. question
remains how strong the tsra will be. spc has most of the area in
slight risk for severe for this evening. with a 50 kt jet at 2k
ft moving into nw oh expect tsra to increase in coverage...however
that said not sure how widespread tsra will become as rain showers
have been stabilizing atmosphere. will leave in a few hours of
tempo tsra for now in the tafs.
expect ifr cigs to develop overnight as a cold front moves across
the forecast area tonight.
outlook...non vfr possible thursday in showers and thunderstorms.
lower ceilings may linger over ne ohio and nw pa into friday and
saturday.
&&

marine...
tornado watch 501 in effect across the western basin this evening.
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front
across mid mississippi valley and track across much of the lake. a
few of these thunderstorms will become strong enough to warrant the
issuance of special marine warnings for this evening and possibly
into the overnight.
small craft advisory in effect across the entire lake through
tomorrow. strong cold front will move across the lake tonight.
ahead of front winds increase to 30 knots...then tonight behind the
front winds will turn to the northwest. winds gradually diminish
thursday night as high pressure gradually nudges into western lakes.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt thursday for lez145>149.
small craft advisory until 10 am edt thursday for lez142>144.
&&
$$
synopsis...tk
near term...tk
short term...tk
long term...djb
aviation...djb
marine...djb

---

md 1709 concerning tornado watch 501... for indiana...wrn oh...far sern lower mi

mesoscale discussion 1709
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0308 pm cdt wed sep 10 2014

areas affected...indiana...wrn oh...far sern lower mi

concerning...tornado watch 501...

valid 102008z - 102215z

the severe weather threat for tornado watch 501 continues.

summary...the threat for an isolated/brief tornado continues across
watch 501...mainly from e-cntrl ind into nwrn oh.

discussion...radar trends indicate a persistent line of low-topped
storms gradually shifting newd across ern ind and into nwrn oh
coincident with the leading shortwave trough. several mesocyclones
have been noted...but have not been particularly strong or
long-lived. however...the air mass continues to slowly warm into wrn
oh with temperatures approaching 80. vwps across the region continue
to indicate strong low level hodograph curvature supportive of
rotation.

..jewell.. 09/10/2014

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...iln...dtx...iwx...grr...ind...

lat...lon 42098192 39128514 39138737 42088431 42098192

---

flood advisory
national weather service cleveland oh
603 pm edt wed sep 10 2014

ohc095-110115-
/o.ext.kcle.fa.y.0062.000000t0000z-140911t0115z/
/00000.0.er.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.oo/
603 pm edt wed sep 10 2014

the national weather service in cleveland has extended the

• flood advisory for minor flooding of poor drainage areas in...
  lucas county in northwest ohio...

• until 915 pm edt

• at 601 pm edt national weather service doppler radar indicated
  heavy rain continues to falling over the advisory area. the
  rainfall has been heavy enough to produce flooding. rainfall
  reports of over two inches of rain near toledo since the rain began.
  more showers and thunderstorms will move into the region
  through this evening.

• locations in the advisory include but are not limited to
  holland...oregon...sylvania...toledo...waterville and whitehouse

precautionary/preparedness actions...

do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. the water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely.

&&

lat...lon 4172 8387 4174 8345 4172 8341 4170 8342
4169 8337 4171 8334 4163 8316 4162 8357
4157 8361 4153 8371 4146 8375 4142 8388

$$

flood warning
flood warning
national weather service cleveland oh
625 pm edt wed sep 10 2014

ohc095-110430-
/o.new.kcle.fa.w.0062.140910t2225z-140911t0430z/
/00000.0.er.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.oo/
lucas oh-
625 pm edt wed sep 10 2014

the national weather service cleveland has issued a

• flood warning for...
  lucas county in northwest ohio...
  this includes the cities of...waterville...toledo...sylvania...

• until 1230 am edt...

• at 624 pm edt the public reported flooding in the toledo area.
  doppler radar estimates over 2 inches of rain has fallen
  over the region today. additional showers and thunderstorms will
  move over lucas county tonight. this will extend flooding through
  midnight. motorists should avoid flood prone areas like
  low lying underpasses and poor drainage areas.

• some locations that may experience flooding include sylvania...
  toledo and waterville.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. most flooding deaths occur in automobiles. turn around dont
drown!

&&

lat...lon 4172 8387 4174 8345 4172 8341 4170 8342
4169 8337 4172 8334 4163 8319 4163 8316
4162 8357 4157 8361 4153 8371 4146 8375
4142 8388

$$

sjamison

tornado watch
watch county notification for watch 501
national weather service cleveland oh
502 pm edt wed sep 10 2014

ohc033-043-063-077-095-101-123-143-147-173-175-110100-
/o.con.kcle.to.a.0501.000000t0000z-140911t0100z/

tornado watch 501 remains valid until 9 pm edt this evening for
the following areas

in ohio this watch includes 11 counties

in north central ohio

crawford erie huron
marion

in northwest ohio

hancock lucas ottawa
sandusky seneca wood
wyandot

this includes the cities of...bowling green...bucyrus...findlay...
fremont...marion...norwalk...port clinton...sandusky...tiffin...
toledo and upper sandusky.

$$
page created: Sep 10, 2014 - 6:30 p.m. EDT

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 501...

VALID 102211Z - 102315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 501 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF DISCRETE CELLS FORMED EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OH...AND THESE STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A COUPLE OF REPORTED TORNADOES. THIS
CONVECTION RESIDES IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MOIST WITH WEAK
SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PER THE CLE VWP.
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY DIURNAL WITH A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY EXPECTED AFTER 00-01Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. AT THIS TIME...THE TORNADO RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD
E OF THE CURRENT WATCH CONFIGURATION THAT EXTENDS EWD TO THE PA
BORDER.

FARTHER SW...CONVECTION IS LOOSELY ORGANIZED ALONG A DIFFUSE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CONFLUENCE AXIS COINCIDENT WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...FROM NW OH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE IS LESS THAN AREAS FARTHER TO THE NE IN OH...BUT STILL
SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. THUS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND A
FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..THOMPSON.. 09/10/2014

#toledo - #weather