Toledo weather sat sep 13 2014

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
845 pm edt sat sep 13 2014

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-150045-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
845 pm edt sat sep 13 2014

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...tonight.

low temperatures tonight will be mostly in the 40s but
temperatures could dip into the upper 30s in some of the typical
cool spots. this could lead to isolated areas of frost.

.days two through seven...sunday through friday.

a few locations will dip into the mid and upper 30s on sunday
night...mainly in northeast ohio and inland northwest
pennsylvania. patchy frost may be possible.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Sep 13, 2014 9:36 pm

Overnight: Mostly clear, with a low around 40. Northeast wind 3 to 5 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph.

Monday: A chance of showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 65. Light southwest wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Northwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 52.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 75.

---

link
fxus61 kcle 140208
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1008 pm edt sat sep 13 2014

synopsis...
chilly high pressure from the mississippi valley will cross the area
sunday morning and then move off the new england coast on monday. a
developing cold front will drop across the area late monday and
monday night and reinforce the cool air. an area of high pressure
will move across the plains states and lower great lakes tuesday
into wednesday.
&&

near term /until 6 am sunday morning/...
model soundings and mav guidance indicating the potential for a
little bit of fog late tonight in interior northeast ohio as
temperatures fall to near the dewpoint beneath a very shallow
inversion. added a mention of patchy fog for just a couple hours
prior to sunrise...mainly east of i-71. also added a low chance of
a shower/waterspout over the south half of lake erie...mainly
10-15z. hi-res models showing a land breeze developing late
tonight given the chilly temperatures over the land and building
surface high. otherwise forecast remains in good shape.
previous discussion...a trough at the surface and aloft over
southern ontario will slide off to the east tonight. the surface
high over the mississippi valley will move east...reaching
northwest ohio by daybreak. with the cold air mass and the flow
off lake erie... will keep clouds in the forecast for much of
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania although there will
likely be breaks in the clouds at times given the increasing
subsidence and drying. a few sprinkles are possible...mainly in
the snowbelt. some of the higher resolution models hint at precip
over the western basin of lake erie as convergence will likely
develop as the land breeze develops during the early morning
hours. this may well occur but not enough confidence to include
any precip at this time out over the lake. if it were to occur...a
waterspout would also be possible along the convergence line.
temps will drop as far as they can tonight over northwest ohio
given the dropping dew points...decreasing winds and clearing
skies. lows in the lower 40s and upper 30s. frost cannot be ruled
out in the coldest outlying spots but will not specifically
mention it given the isolated nature. lower/mid 40s elsewhere
except lower/mid 50s at the lake erie shore.
&&

short term /6 am sunday morning through tuesday night/...
the surface high will shift east on sunday and the flow will come
around light from the southwest. a lake breeze is likely near lake
erie given the light gradient. fair weather cumulus will develop
or evolve from the remaining lake clouds but it should still end up
"mostly sunny". some high clouds will begin to advance but will
likely stay thin. given the cool start and light wind will not go
as warm as some of the guidance. highs from around 60 nw pa to the
mid 60s nw and north central ohio.
a fast moving short wave will track across the northern states on
monday. this will push a developing cold front across the
area...probably late in the afternoon across nw ohio and then in
the evening elsewhere. a second short wave is progged to dive
southeast across the great lakes monday night. this will likely
increase the frontogenesis and enhance the rain/showers along the
front. a weak wave may develop on the front monday night. high
temps on monday may not get as warm as it could ahead of the
front since the high/mid clouds will likely start to thicken up
fairly quickly. we should recover to the mid and upper 60s...maybe
70 or so if we get lucky.
the air mass will be cool on tuesday behind the front but not as
cool as the current air mass. not cool enough for significant lake
effect showers but there will likely be lake effect clouds. highs in
the 60s.
&&

long term /wednesday through saturday/...
little change in the extended forecast. models continue in good
agreement with large area of high pressure moving across the great
lakes thursday into friday. the high becomes nearly stationary off
the new england coast on saturday...with strong upper level ridge in
place over the area. warming trend saturday as southerly flow
develops. overall however below normal conditions will continue
into next weekend.
&&

aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
high pressure will be over the area tonight through sunday. the
cloud forecast is a little tough. the onshore flow aloft will
become offshore sunday morning. with the flow decreasing the
threat of broken lake effect clouds between 3000 and 4000 feet will
be mainly at cle and eri. elsewhere some fog is possible. some of
the models are trying to indicate dense fog at cak and yng...at
this time did not go that low of visibility but some patchy dense
fog will occur. the clouds will slowly decrease on sunday.
ceilings could be near 3000 feet especially through mid morning.
outlook...non vfr likely monday night with passage of cold front.
&&

marine...
the winds are decreasing on schedule but the waves are slow to
subside so extended the small craft advisory on the east end of
the lake until 3 am sunday as the waves were still 3 to 6 feet at
around 10 pm.
a land breeze is expected to develop by sunday morning as high
pressure builds over the lake. this will mean a convergent
boundary will be over the lake. isolated showers may develop on
this boundary and with the lake and 850 mb temperature difference
near 18c the air aloft will be cold enough for the potential for a
few cold air waterspouts or funnels to develop. the threat is
marginal as the amount of moisture in the low levels is barely
adequate. a slight chance of waterspouts have been added to the
marine forecast and the hazardous weather outlook.
previous discussion...
the high will be centered over the lake by daybreak sunday. high
will continue to move east and move off the mid atlantic coast
monday. this will allow another cold front to move across the lake
monday night. expect choppy conditions tuesday with nw from of 10
to 15 knots and waves of 2 to 4 feet...but should remain below
small craft advisory conditions.
&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 3 am edt sunday for lez147>149.
&&
$$
synopsis...kosarik
near term...kec/kosarik
short term...kosarik
long term...djb
aviation...kieltyka
marine...djb/kieltyka

#Toledo #weather