Toledo mayoral election thoughts - feb 2015

my feb 23, 2015 tt comment

"Having the survey available on a website kind of wrecks its scientific validity."

Toledo politics and scientific validity???

That's a pairing that I have not considered before.

"Whats the scoop w Mike Bell? Sorry for not knowing, but why isnt he a viable candidate?"

http://nwohiocc.com

Their survey lists the following:

1. Who would you support if Toledo's Mayoral election were held tomorrow?

• Paula Hicks-Hudson
• Pete Gerken
• Joe McNamara
• Lindsay Webb
• Jack Ford
• Wade Kapszukiewicz
• Michael Bell
• Alan Cox
• Anita Lopez
• Adam Martinez
• Opal Covey
• Carty Finkbeiner
• Larry Sykes
• Tom Waniewski
• Michael Konwinski
• Other (please specify)

This survey was started approximately two weeks after Mayor Collins passed away.

Feb 22, 2015 Toledo Blade story

Ten days after the funeral of Toledo Mayor D. Michael Collins, the Northwest Ohio Conservative Coalition launched a robocall and online survey asking people who should run for mayor.

Mr. McNamara, who was defeated in the 2013 primary Toledo mayoral election ultimately won by political independent Mr. Collins, said the group should apologize for the call.

"I am disgusted that the Northwest Ohio Conservative Coalition is conducting a poll less than two weeks after Mayor Collin’s funeral," he said. "This action shows immense disrespect for the mayor’s family and a community that is still grieving. The poll should be withdrawn immediately and the group needs to apologize."

The mayor's widow, Sandy Drabik, received the call today.

John McAvoy, a board member of the conservative group said he didn't see a need for an apology.

"I don't know what the apology is for," Mr. McAvoy said. "We are asking the question... The call said Toledo lost one of its great leaders and who would you support for mayor in November?"

The call went to registered Democrats as well as Republicans, Mr. McAvoy said.

“We are curious who should be the next mayor,” he said. “The election is in November and people are starting to pull petitions.”

I'm with Burris on this topic, except that I'm wondering if these political turdsticks started scheming back on Feb 1 when they heard that Mayor Collins was in the hospital.

McNamara may want his Democrat party to apologize too, according to Burris.

Something ugly is happening at Toledo City Council in the wake of Mayor D. Michael Collins’ death. A power grab.

A fraction of the Lucas County Democratic Party, bolstered by some in the construction trade unions, wants to seize control of council.

And they went to work on this grubby plot before Mayor Collins was even buried.

I understand that the city charter requires city council to fill a vacancy within 30 days of the opening, but the local political machination shenanigans are nauseating.

More proof that Toledo will never have to worry about getting accused of being sophisticated.

Timeline:

• Sun, Feb 1: Mayor Collins admitted to the hospital.
  • Sun, Feb 1: Local political shites may have started planning on how to take the District 4 council seat and how to take the mayor's throne in the fall.
• Fri, Feb 6: Mayor Collins passed away.
• Wed, Feb 11: Funeral service at Savage Hall.
• Thu, Feb 12: Funeral mass at Our Lady, Queen of the Most Holy Rosary Cathedral.
• Tue, Feb 17: Paula Hicks-Hudson sworn in as the official mayor of Toledo.

And today is only Mon, Feb 23.

Since no mayoral primary exists this year, then candidates have two extra months. They don't have to announce as early as in a normal mayoral election year.

In 2005, Keith Wilkowski waited until June to announce his intention to run for mayor. He nearly cracked the top two in the September primary. He may have made it to the November ballot that year if had announced two months earlier.

But again, since no primary exists this year, then I don't think that it's a problem if someone waited until this summer to announce running for mayor.

In 2013, Mayor Collins proved that a candidate does not need a lot of money to finish in the top two in the September primary. But he had name recognition, a loyal following in his district, and a dedicated staff.

At the local level, a candidate can get elected with less money and without the alleged key endorsements.

In May 2013, Collins announced that he would run for mayor. That was only four months ahead of the primary. That would be like announcing in July for this year's election.

I think people assumed much earlier than May of that year that Collins would run. And similar assumptions will occur this spring for some candidates.

In that September 2013 primary, naturally the incumbent Bell wound up finishing in the top two, but the top Democrat candidates, Lopez and McNamara, split the party's vote, which probably allowed Collins to slip in.

I think this November's mayoral election will be similar to a primary, except the general election has a little higher voter turnout than a primary. In my opinion, it will not take a lot of votes to win. The so-called preferred candidates may split votes to allow someone else to finish at the top.

A candidate with less name recognition may need to announce earlier in order to build a team, but I doubt anyone will pay attention to this process until this summer when candidates are hanging out at festivals.

So yeah, it was way too early for some group to run a survey about a Toledo mayoral election that's more than eight months away.

Most of the people mentioned on the above list could wait until July to announce, and it would not hurt them because they are already well-known.

But with all that crap written above, I have to flashback to August 2005. That's Keith Wilkowski on the left in the background. Opal is chatting with Carty. Surely, that scene won't repeat itself in August 2015.

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second comment

quote=188704

WestToledoan didn't leave off Mike Bell. Bell was left off of the phone survey.

The Northwest Ohio Conservative Coalition conducted two surveys: phone and web.

The phone survey contained the following candidates:

Councilman Tom Waniewski, Mayor Paula Hicks-Hudson, Lucas County Commissioner Pete Gerken, Lucas County Democratic Treasurer Wade Kapszukiewicz, Councilman Jack Ford, former councilman Joe McNamara, or Councilman Larry Sykes to run for mayor in November to complete the remainder of Mayor Collins' term.

The web survey contained all of the above candidates plus:

Lucas County Auditor Anita Lopez, former Councilman Adam Martinez, former Toledo mayors Mike Bell and Carty Finkbeiner, Councilman Lindsay Webb, and former mayoral candidates Alan Cox, Michael Konwinski, and Opal Covey.

Contact the Northwest Ohio Conservative Coalition with concerns.

If the person who wins the mayor's race in November 2015 wants to seek re-election, that person will have start campaigning in about 15 to 18 months after taking office to get ready for the September 2017 primary.

Lopez, Bell, and McNamara went through this process only about 15 to 18 months ago.

2013, 2015, and 2017. Toledo will have held three mayoral elections across five Novembers.

#toledo #politics #moronism