Toledo Weather - Wed, May 27, 2015

Storms and/or wind gusts caused some minor damage and power outages in the Toledo area yesterday between 6:00 and 7:00 p.m.

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hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
529 am edt wed may 27 2015

for portions of lake erie...
north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and
northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight
there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the region
this afternoon into the evening. the main threat will be strong
damaging winds but large hail will be possible.

a weakening cold front will move into northwest ohio this
afternoon with thunderstorms developing along it. these
thunderstorms will move eastward through the evening and could
impact all of northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday
severe thunderstorms will be possible saturday afternoon and
evening as another cold front moves across the area.

.spotter information statement...
spotter activation may be required.

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spc ac 271252

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0752 am cdt wed may 27 2015

valid 271300z - 281200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over parts of the oh valley...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from the mid atlantic states
into new england...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over the central and southern
high plains...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms over parts of the central and
eastern us...

...summary...
severe storms are possible today across parts of the northern mid
atlantic coast region into northern new england...as well as parts
of the upper ohio valley and lower great lakes region...and portions
of the central high plains into the southern plains.

...ohio valley...
morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough moving across
ia/mo. a persistent cluster of thunderstorms is associated with
this trough over southeast mo. early visible satellite imagery
shows relatively clear skies downstream of the convection...which
should allow rapid heating and destabilization. present indications
are that this cluster of storms will intensify by late morning over
southern ind/western ky and track northeastward across oh into
western pa. mlcape values over 1500 j/kg and 40-50 knots of mid
level flow support a risk of locally damaging winds and hail in
these areas.

...mid atlantic region into new england...
a band of showers currently extends from western ny southward into
wv. this weak convection is associated with a lead shortwave trough
that will move eastward into parts of the mid atlantic region and
new england later today. strong heating in this region coupled with
dewpoints in the 60s will help yield mlcape values over 1000 j/kg.
most cam solutions show scattered thunderstorm development along
this corridor by mid afternoon. low level and deep layer shear
profiles are favorable for organized/bowing storm structures capable
of locally damaging winds. any storm that can remain discrete in
this region would pose a marginal risk for a tornado as well.

...central/southern high plains...
strong heating will occur once again today over parts of eastern
co/western ky and southwest neb...southward into tx and western ok.
similar to yesterday...moderate cape values and a breakable cap will
result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline.
the highest probability of storms appears to be from southwest neb
into northwest ok. strengthening low level winds this evening and
steep lapse rates will promote a risk of supercells capable of
hail...damaging winds...and isolated tornadoes.

..hart/gleason.. 05/27/2015

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630z

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