Toledo weather thu, jun 11, 2015

md 0974 concerning severe potential...watch possible for nern illinois...srn lower michigan...nrn indiana...nwrn ohio

mesoscale discussion 0974
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0352 pm cdt thu jun 11 2015

areas affected...nern illinois...srn lower michigan...nrn
indiana...nwrn ohio

concerning...severe potential...watch possible

valid 112052z - 112245z

probability of watch issuance...40 percent

summary...it is not yet certain that a severe weather watch will be
needed late this afternoon...but convective trends are being
monitored for the possibility of an increasing severe weather
threat.

discussion...a stalled low-level baroclinic zone across southern
portions of the great lakes region is becoming the focus for
increasing thunderstorm development. at the current time...this
appears mainly where lake breezes are enhancing low-level
convergence...in the presence of moderate boundary layer cape on the
order of 2000 j/kg. large-scale forcing for upward vertical motion
remains weak /unclear...and is generally not expected to increase
until later tonight. however...despite the rather weak to modest
strength of the low-level wind fields...deep layer shear beneath
30-40 kt westerly mid-level flow is sufficient for organized
convective development...and could enhance ongoing activity in the
peak late afternoon heating. stronger activity may become capable
of producing strong wind gusts and some hail...but it may not be out
of the question that surface boundary interactions could contribute
to an isolated tornado or two.

..kerr/hart.. 06/11/2015

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...iln...iwx...grr...lot...dvn...

lat...lon 41978831 41938774 41868638 42238614 41618449 41198332
40778379 40848611 40638788 41268922 41778897 41978831

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TOL:
Jun 11, 2015 4:52 pm
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 75 F
Humidity : 58%
Wind Speed : ENE 13 mph
Barometer : 29.91 in
Dewpoint: 59 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Jun 11, 2015 4:53 pm
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 73 F
Humidity : 59%
Wind Speed : ENE 12 mph - Gust 20 mph
Barometer : 29.93 in
Dewpoint: 58 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

(near Lambertville)
Jun 11, 2015 5:34 pm
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 73 F
Humidity : 57%
Wind Speed : E 8 mph
Barometer : 29.93 in
Dewpoint: 56 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

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Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: Jun 11, 2015 1:05 pm

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. East wind 6 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with a southwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 62. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 9 to 14 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. West wind 7 to 10 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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