Toledo weather mon jun 22 2015

#toledo - #weather

spc ac 220558

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1258 am cdt mon jun 22 2015

valid 221200z - 231200z

...there is an enh risk of svr tstms from the mid-upper ms valley
ewd into lower mich...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over a large portion of the
midwest and great lakes...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms from ern ks into the
northeastern u.s....

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms over nrn parts of fl into the
wrn carolinas...

...summary...
scattered severe storms are likely across parts of the upper
mississippi valley and great lakes regions...some of which should be
intense...mainly from midday through the evening on monday. the
threat for large to very large hail and a strong tornado appear to
be greatest over southern wisconsin and northern illinois.

...upper ms valley/great lakes...
considerable uncertainty remains regarding the forecast evolution of
a severe mcs across the nrn plains into the upper ms valley prior to
the start of the period. as a result...confidence for this severe
forecast is tempered owing to several potentially critical variables
1) longevity/severity of early morning mcs from the ms valley into
the great lakes 2) preferred storm mode /supercell and/or bow echo/.
given relatively high uncertainty...will defer substantial changes
to the next outlook.

the primary shortwave trough will move from the nrn plains to lake
superior during the day while a potential convectively-generated mcv
evolves from squall line activity leading into the day 1 period. in
the low levels...a reservoir of rich moisture over the lower to mid
mo valley will advect n/newd into the mid ms valley/wrn great lakes
during the morning owing partially to strong low-level waa. while
it is possible for the early morning storms to continue ewd from the
mid-upper ms valley into the cntrl great lakes...lessening buoyancy
with ewd extent should serve to weaken this activity. a strong
influx of low-level moisture /characterized by 16-18 g per kg lowest
100 mb mean mixing ratios/ will likely move into nrn il/wi vicinity
along and to the s of trailing outflow and ahead of the approaching
cold front.

it is probable storm redevelopment /sctd coverage/ will occur later
in the afternoon near the residual boundary over the wrn great lakes
or along the front located over cntrl wi sw into ern ia. the
strength of the deep layer shear vector /50-70 kt/ and its
orientation to the boundary coupled with a very strong to extremely
buoyant /3000-4500 j per kg mlcape/ boundary layer would promote
explosive updraft development and a supercellular mode early in the
storm lifecycle. all severe hazards would be possible with this
activity...including significant hail/wind/tornado. further storm
development along the front will favor a transition to a mixed mode
and probably yield a wind/hail threat becoming predominate with
time. storms should move downstream and into the srn and lower
great lakes states overnight with the primary risk being isold large
hail/wind.

...parts of the sern u.s...
a flattened mid-level anticyclone will persist off the se u.s. and
diurnally-driven storms will likely develop during the afternoon. a
very weak wind profile will result in slow-moving pulse storms which
will likely propagate on convective outflow. steepened low-level
lapse rates owing to strong diabatic heating coupled with pw
1.75-2.0 inches will promote water loading with the more intense
cores. wet microbursts capable of pockets of wind damage will be
the primary threat and this activity will diminish during the early
evening.

..smith/rogers.. 06/22/2015

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z

---

According to the 1:58 a.m. SPC update, the main threat for severe weather remains to the north and west of Toledo. And it seems that some aspects for severe weather have decreased for Michigan. The main risk for tornadoes and large hail exists over southern WI, northern IL, and eastern IA. But it appears that the NWS won't know for sure until mid-day.

Excerpts from the 1:58 a.m., Mon, Jun 22 Day 1 Convective Outlook:

...upper ms valley/great lakes...

considerable uncertainty remains regarding the forecast evolution of a severe mcs across the nrn plains into the upper ms valley prior to the start of the period.

as a result... confidence for this severe forecast is tempered owing to several potentially critical variables

1) longevity/severity of early morning mcs from the ms valley into the great lakes

2) preferred storm mode /supercell and/or bow echo/.

given relatively high uncertainty... will defer substantial changes to the next outlook.

the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z [9:00 a.m. EDT]

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

---

fxus63 kdtx 220635
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
235 am edt mon jun 22 2015

short term...today and tonight

today (through approximately 02z)

an mcs is maturing over south dakota at press time in response to
the previously discussed strong dynamic response across the northern
united states and subsequent low-level jet response. surface
pressure falls in the lee of the rockies are forecast to consolidate
into a low pressure center over minnesota early this morning with
the attendant instability axis along the arcing warm front providing
a focus for continued mcs propagation.

classic conceptual model suggests the mcs will enter the decaying
stage upon weakening of the nocturnal jet and as it outruns synoptic
scale forcing during the morning. however, the present situation
suggests pause given strong dynamic response accompanying a rapid
synoptic scale evolution. high resolution models place the mcs on
the expected ese trajectory over southern wisconsin by late this
morning. low-level jet will only strengthen through the morning into
this afternoon as the warm front lifts north. extrapolation puts
perhaps the northern fringes of the mcs over south-central lower
michigan by mid-afternoon, where the surface instability axis will
already be firmly in place. any organized severe wind threat would
likely only clip southwestern counties 20-00z.

more likely scenario for this afternoon will be the potential for
lead discrete development along the warm front in advance of
mcs/remnants, possibly along mcs outflow propagating into the warm
sector environment. updrafts along the warm front itself may
initially struggle to organize and root in the boundary layer given
unfavorable position along the periphery of the more favorable warm
sector environment. better chance for a severe threat may come in
response to updraft development along outflow or simply a result of
ongoing theta-e advection within the warm sector. despite being
shrouded in convective debris for the bulk of the day, advective
processes will ensure mlcape ramps up to 2000-3000 j/kg 19-00z,
during which time hodographs will become increasingly large and
formidable with any post-warm front development likely becoming
severe. the initial threat before sundown will be large hail to golf
ball size and winds to 60 mph. lcls upwards of 3kft not particularly
supportive of tornado development during this period. coverage may
be increased toward the saginaw valley where mcv within corridor of
greatest synoptic scale height falls, and immediately downstream of
the surface low will provide stronger forced ascent. defined lull in
activity is a reasonable expectation during mid evening hours
probable given mcs passage and resultant mid-level latent heat
bubble/stabilization and wake subsidence. concern that this stable
period will short circuit cold front convection later in the night
exists, but is minimal at this time given very strong advective
processes and fast evolution of features on the synoptic scale.

tonight (approx 02-12z)

aforementioned potential mcs disruption not withstanding, severe
threat will fully mature during the late evening as 50kt swly llj
and 70kt 500mb wind max become juxtaposed with extremely buoyant
environment immediately in advance of the surface cold front.
incredible 0-6km bulk shear of 60 to 65 knots oriented favorably
to the initiating boundary, combined with lack of strong linear
forcing, and mlcape of 2000 j/kg or higher will favor an initial
mode of supercells over central lower michigan into the saginaw
valley and locations north of m59. 0-1km/0-3km srh of 250/330 m2s2
respectively suggest very strong mesocyclone rotation capable of
producing hail to golf balls or higher, though elevated freezing
levels warrant remaining conservative with regard to hail
potential. in addition, a legitimate tornadic threat would also
exist during the supercell phase as lcls lower with the help of
advection of rich low-level moisture and decreased mixing during
the nocturnal period. incredibly high vgp around 1 is a testament
to the magnitude of shear available for tilting while sufficient
cape in the lowest levels looks to be available to enhance
stretching processes. a few tornados cannot be ruled out mainly
north of m59. magnitude of environmental wind field alone will
also support straight line wind gust potential to 70 mph.

passage of the upper wave will result in rapid veering of the wind
profile over southeast michigan after about 05z leading to
increasingly straight hodographs as convection shifts toward the
southern half of the cwa. as such, an evolution from supercells to a
more downdraft dominated convective mode is expected during this
time. cold pool interaction would favor some consolidation, with the
forecast thermodynamic environment favoring bowing segments with
rear inflow jets over significant upscale growth. thus, the primary
threat south of m59 appears to be largely a wind threat. certainly a
very dynamic and fluid forecast situation with additional
modifications to the official forecast reasoning anticipated during
the next 12 hours.

&&

long term...tuesday through sunday

surface ridging tucked beneath continuous lower amplitude west-
northwest mid level flow will result in a period of drier and more
stable conditions tuesday and tuesday night. a limited period of
weak cold air advection will be offset by the high regree of
insolation within a modestly mixed environment. this will support
highs of upper 70s and lower 80s. gradual boundary layer drying
will provide a noticeable decrease in humidity by the latter half
of the day.

large scale pattern will deviate little heading into wednesday. west
to east elongated strip of greater moisture/instability will remain
anchored to the south through the daylight period...with additional
shortwave energy working through this mean flow providing a focal
point for continued convective development over the midwest/ohio
valley. this positioning will sustain a higher degree of stability
locally under deeper westerly flow. pattern peristence in the
temperature department...highs again arriving within a degree or
two on either side of 80 degrees.

emerging warm air advection across the plains will favor some
northeastward expansion of the main theta-e plume with time
wednesday into thursday. this evolution could be augmented/enhanced
by the passage additional shortwave energy. this will offer the
next possibility for shower and thunderstorm development
locally...centered sometime within the wednesday night and thursday
periods.

&&

marine...

southerly winds will then increase today as strong low pressure
tracks toward the northern great lakes. this system will bring the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms from late afternoon
through tonight. while thunderstorms will be the primary
concern...there will also be a period of stronger west to northwest
winds along and behind a cold front tonight into tuesday. gust
potential will be limited somewhat by stability over the cooler lake
waters. however there will be the potential for some gusts to 30
knots across the open waters of lake huron...with 25 knots down
through saginaw bay. this warrants the issuance of a small craft
advisory for saginaw bay and along the tip of the thumb. the wind
will decrease by late tuesday and tuesday night as high pressure
builds into the region.

&&

prev discussion...issued /

&&

dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

short term...jvc
long term....mr
marine.......mr

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit (all lower case).

---

According to the 1:58 a.m. SPC update, the main threat for severe weather remains to the north and west of Toledo. And it seems that some aspects for severe weather have decreased for Michigan. The main risk for tornadoes and large hail exists over southern WI, northern IL, and eastern IA. But it appears that the NWS won't know for sure until mid-day.

Excerpts from the 1:58 a.m., Mon, Jun 22 Day 1 Convective Outlook:

...upper ms valley/great lakes...

considerable uncertainty remains regarding the forecast evolution of a severe mcs across the nrn plains into the upper ms valley prior to the start of the period.

as a result... confidence for this severe forecast is tempered owing to several potentially critical variables

1) longevity/severity of early morning mcs from the ms valley into the great lakes

2) preferred storm mode /supercell and/or bow echo/.

given relatively high uncertainty... will defer substantial changes to the next outlook.

the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z [9:00 a.m. EDT]

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

The cluster of strong storms located at 3:30 a.m. over the Dakotas and Minnesota may reach the lower Great Lakes later today.

Warnings as of 3:34 a.m. EDT.

Excerpts from the 2:35 a.m., Mon, Jun 22 AFD issued by the Det/Pon NWS, which is generally more informative than information from the Cle NWS, which seems to show little interest in Lucas County's weather.

This AFD suggests that the worse weather for central and southern Michigan will occur after dark. Two rounds of storms may pass through Michigan. Thunderstorm scraps may reach the Toledo area after Midnight.

an mcs is maturing over south dakota at press time in response to the previously discussed strong dynamic response across the northern united states and subsequent low-level jet response.

high resolution models place the mcs on the expected ese trajectory over southern wisconsin by late this morning. low-level jet will only strengthen through the morning into this afternoon as the warm front lifts north. extrapolation puts perhaps the northern fringes of the mcs over south-central lower michigan by mid-afternoon, where the surface instability axis will already be firmly in place. any organized severe wind threat would likely only clip southwestern counties 20-00z.

more likely scenario for this afternoon will be the potential for lead discrete development along the warm front in advance of mcs/remnants, possibly along mcs outflow propagating into the warm sector environment.

the initial threat before sundown will be large hail to golf ball size and winds to 60 mph. lcls upwards of 3kft not particularly supportive of tornado development during this period.

defined lull in activity is a reasonable expectation during mid evening hours probable given mcs passage and resultant mid-level latent heat bubble/stabilization and wake subsidence.

... severe threat will fully mature during the late evening ...

... will favor an initial mode of supercells over central lower michigan into the saginaw valley and locations north of m59.

... suggest very strong mesocyclone rotation capable of producing hail to golf balls or higher ...

... a legitimate tornadic threat would also exist during the supercell phase ...

a few tornados cannot be ruled out mainly north of m59. magnitude of environmental wind field alone will also support straight line wind gust potential to 70 mph.

[after 1:00 a.m. Tue] the primary threat south of m59 appears to be largely a wind threat.

certainly a very dynamic and fluid forecast situation with additional modifications to the official forecast reasoning anticipated during the next 12 hours.

---

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
454 am edt mon jun 22 2015

for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central
great lakes today. these storms will likely move toward lake
erie and eventually into northern ohio and northwestern
pennsylvania. it is tough to tell at this time how long and how
far east the severe storms will persist. the best chance for
severe storms appears to be across northwest ohio this evening.
wind damage and large hail will be the greatest threat although a
tornado is possible.

.days two through seven...tuesday through sunday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
603 am edt mon jun 22 2015

synopsis...
issued at 300 am edt mon jun 22 2015

severe storms are possible this afternoon tonight...especially
from far southern lower michigan into northern indiana and
northwest ohio as a strong upper level system tracks eastward
through the great lakes. highs today will generally be in the
upper 80s. lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

---

loop ending at 8:52 a.m. EDT

---

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHERN AND
EASTERN IA...WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AND SRN WI AND PART OF NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328...329...330...

VALID 221242Z - 221415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
328...329...330...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EAST-CENTRAL MN...NORTHEAST IA AND WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST WI.
STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT FROM
SOUTHEAST MN THROUGH NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI AHEAD OF THE BOW
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG TO SEVERE N/NWLY WIND GUSTS REMAIN A POTENTIAL
THREAT ATTENDANT TO A WAKE LOW WEST OF THE BOW.

A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF THE BOW AS IT SHOULD PROGRESS
E/SEWD THIS MORNING INTO PARTS OF ERN IA...SRN WI AND NRN IL.

DISCUSSION...AT 12Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A COMPLEX
DISPLAY OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN IA
AND DEVELOPING EWD INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI. A BOW
EXTENDED FROM NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO SSWWD INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL IA AND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 50-60
KT. A 50 KT SWLY LLJ AS SAMPLED BY THE DMX/OAX WSR-88D/S WILL
RESULT IN FURTHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND A FEED OF
MODERATELY-STRONG INSTABILITY INTO THE SRN EXTENT OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY MCS.

A VERY STRONG /AROUND 90 KT/ AND DESCENDING REAR-INFLOW JET AS
OBSERVED EARLIER WITH THE FSD WSR-88D INDICATED WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE THE SEVERE AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE BOW.
OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR A WARM FRONT
IN SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO SWRN AND SRN WI THIS MORNING AS
THIS FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE PORTION
OF THE BOW IN NORTH-CENTRAL IA TO SPREAD INTO ERN IA/SRN WI AND NRN
IL AFTER 14Z...A NEW WW MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED THIS MORNING...SOUTH
THROUGH EAST OF WW 330.

---

spc ac 221254

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0754 am cdt mon jun 22 2015

valid 221300z - 231200z

...there is an enh risk of svr tstms over a part of the upper
midwest and upper great lakes region...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms surrounding the enh risk from
the upper ms and lower mo valleys ewd through the great lakes...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms surrounding the slgt risk from
the upper ms and lower mo valleys ewd through the great lakes...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms over a portion of the sern
states...

...summary...
severe storms capable of intense...damaging outflow winds...strong
tornadoes and very large hail are probable over the upper midwest
and great lakes region today through tonight.

...synopsis...

a polar-branch short-wave trough from manitoba into the dakotas will
amplify and gradually assume a slight negative tilt as it translates
through the great lakes and ontario. this system will be attended
by a 70-80 kt mid-level jet streak and corridor of 50-100 m/12-hr
height falls at 500 mb which will overspread the great lakes later
today into tonight.

at the surface...an associated area of low pressure will deepen
while developing from swrn mn into ern ontario/wrn quebec by
12z/tuesday. a warm front which will be modulated by convective
outflow attendant to early-day storms will attempt to move nwd into
the great lakes while a trailing cold front sweeps ewd through the
upper ms valley and upper great lakes. the trailing extension of
this front will move more slowly sewd through the mid/lower mo
valley and cntrl plains.

...upper midwest ewd through the great lakes and nrn oh valley...

a complex-structured mcs ongoing over srn mn/nrn ia will continue
ewd along the synoptic warm front through portions of cntrl/srn wi
and nrn il this morning...and eventually into lower mi by afternoon.
this system has a well-defined mcv with the fsd vad indicating
60-80 kt winds within the descending rear-inflow jet at 1 km agl.
given the very moist and moderately unstable air mass feeding into
this system along a 40-50+ kt swly llj...expect damaging wind
potential to persist...and possibly increase later today as the
boundary layer warms and destabilizes.

due to the expansive cold pool generated by the mcs...considerable
uncertainty remains with regard to the intensity and location of
diurnally enhanced tstm development this afternoon. a number of
convection-allowing models suggest that storms will redevelop by
early afternoon along the cold front from portions of w-cntrl wi
into n-cntrl/nern ia as large-scale forcing for ascent/dcva
overspreads the area. while the character of the thermodynamic
environment remains unclear...both low-level and deep-layer shear
will be quite strong /i.e. effective values of bulk shear and srh of
50-60 kt and 300-400 m2 per s2...respectively/ and supportive of
supercells capable of large hail and tornadoes /some possibly
strong/...namely over cntrl/srn wi into nern ia and nrn il.

other storms may develop later today from the vicinity of the cold
front ewd along the outflow boundary trailing the early-day mcs from
portions of ia into nrn il. and while a favorable overlap of
3000-4000+ j/kg mlcape and strong vertical shear will
exist...pronounced capping /see the 12z oax sounding/ may become
problematic to storm development...especially if the boundary
continues to settle swd. as such...a conditional risk for
supercells capable of very large hail...a few tornadoes and damaging
winds will exist given diurnal storm development and sustenance.

by this evening...ongoing storms along the cold front may
consolidate into a mixed-mode mcs /i.e. embedded supercells and
bows/ with the threat for damaging winds...large hail and possibly a
tornado or two spreading sewd across cntrl/srn lower mi and portions
of il...ind...oh. this mcs may affect parts of the lower great
lakes late tonight into early tuesday.

an upgrade to a moderate risk remains possible in later day one
outlooks...once mesoscale details regarding the destabilization
process in the wake of the mcs become more clear.

...sern states this afternoon/evening...

heating along the high terrain and convergence along residual
outflow boundaries will give rise to scattered afternoon storms
amidst a very moist and moderately unstable air mass. vertical
shear will be weak...but considerable water loading of convective
downdrafts and resultant risk for isolated damaging surface winds.

..mead/mosier.. 06/22/2015

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630z

Wind: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE 44,721 20,825,015 Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Milwaukee, WI...Toledo, OH...Madison, WI...

---

The first batch of severe thunderstorms may move through our region late this afternoon or early this evening.

The second batch of severe thunderstorms may move through our region late tonight or early Tuesday morning. This nighttime event could contain worst weather than the first batch.

The map below concerns the first batch of severe thunderstorms.

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 8:54 a.m. EDT on Mon, Jun 22, 2015 and valid until 8:00 p.m. tonight.

Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. Significant Severe weather: Chicago, IL... Detroit, MI... Milwaukee, WI... Toledo, OH ... Madison, WI...

Warnings as of 10:35 a.m. EDT. This cluster of storms has been severe since last night when the storms were over the Dakotas. The storms were moving east-southeast.

10:14 a.m. Mesoscale Discussion

Excerpts from the 8:54 a.m. Day 1 Convective Outlook.

an upgrade to a moderate risk remains possible in later day one outlooks once mesoscale details regarding the destabilization process in the wake of the [first] mcs become more clear.

the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630z [12:30 p.m. EDT].

Regarding the current batch of storms (MCS) that are approaching Chicago.

a complex-structured mcs ongoing over srn mn/nrn ia will continue ewd along the synoptic warm front through portions of cntrl/srn wi and nrn il this morning... and eventually into lower mi by afternoon.

given the very moist and moderately unstable air mass feeding into this system along a 40-50+ kt swly llj... expect damaging wind potential to persist... and possibly increase later today as the boundary layer warms and destabilizes.

Concerning the second batch of storms that may develop later.

by this evening... ongoing storms along the cold front may consolidate into a mixed-mode mcs /i.e. embedded supercells and bows/ with the threat for damaging winds... large hail and possibly a tornado or two spreading sewd across cntrl/srn lower mi and portions of il... ind... oh. this mcs may affect parts of the lower great lakes late tonight into early tuesday.

---

fxus61 kcle 221446
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1046 am edt mon jun 22 2015

synopsis...
a warm front over northwest ohio will continue to push north this
afternoon. a deepening area of low pressure will cross the
northern great lakes later today and tonight. a cold front from
this low will move southeast across the area late tonight and
early tuesday. high pressure will slide across the great lakes
tuesday into wednesday.

&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
the afternoon forecast is complicated. the weak boundary from
yesterday was drifting north as a warm front...across northwest
ohio. the cu field is already bubbling and there will probably be
at least a few showers/storms develop. dewpoints have already
risen to around 70 across nw ohio. then we have the thunderstorm
complex over wisconsin driving southeast. it should weaken as it
shifts away from the best low/mid level jet...but these systems
get quite a bit of momentum. will have to watch as it intersects
the warm front...it could allow for a continuation of the storms
which could get into northwest ohio.

new thunderstorms will develop over the upper lakes this
afternoon/evening and these have the potential for significant
wind damage due to the strong jet dynamics. the shear is progged
to increase later today...another significant contribution to the
sever potential. the storms from the northern lakes will move
southeast and will arrive tonight.

highs today in the 80s and it will be sticky...especially nw and
north central ohio with dewpoints around 70. no other changes to
the "today" forecast.

&&

short term /6 pm this evening through thursday night/...
mainly zonal flow aloft is expected during the period so no
air mass change will occur this week. lot's of model differences
today concerning timing of precip. all of the guidance appears to
be having trouble with convective feedback. pretty confident that
it will rain tonight...just not sure when. the challenge today is
figuring out if the convection over mn right now will hold
together as it dives se across the lakes today. the guidance
differs on this and will go with the gfs/ecmwf solution of having
it fall apart before it gets here. at the same time these models
develop another line of convection over the western lakes this
afternoon. this precip will hold together and should arrive late
in the evening and overnight and will be just ahead of the surface
cold front. this precip will be helped along by favorable dynamics
aloft including a trough. time of day will work in favor for the
local area as the threat for severe weather will be somewhat diminished
given the time of day. have gone ahead and bumped precip chances
to likely most of the area for tonight. by mid tuesday
morning...the front and most of the precip should be southeast of
the area. then will try for a 36 to 42 hour dry period as weak
high pressure passes to the north. both the gfs and ecmwf have
slowed down the return of the precip to the area and wednesday
should be dry. a warm front will work its way into the area
wednesday night and that should signal the return of thunderstorm
chances. the boundary will stall and keep the precip threat going
through the end of the period. temps will continue to average a
little above normal for the week.

&&

long term /friday through sunday/...
amplification of the ridge in the west will result in
troughing in the east by weeks end. this will send a trend toward
cooler temperatures into the forecast area.

as troughiness develops in the upper levels over the forecast
area...trough slowly becomes neutrally tilted and eventually causes
a wave of low pressure to develop over the ohio valley and move
east. at this time...it appears some moisture and upper level
support could slip north across the area saturday into sunday and
bring a threat for showers and thunderstorms to the area.
although...probabilities will be minimal and so far the trend may be
to gradually taper the shower and thunderstorm threat out of the
forecast as the potential exists for keeping the moisture just south
of the forecast area. but...until there is a better handle on extent
of activity...will keep the minimal chance in the forecast.

temperatures will cool down a bit into the 70s for highs each day as
some weak cold air advection slips into the forecast area. overnight
lows will hover in the lower 60s.

&&

aviation /12z monday through friday/...
big issues to deal with today. winds are expected to increase
along and behind the warm front this afternoon out of the
southwest. a line of showers and thunderstorms could possibly
reach toledo and findlay by late this afternoon and weaken.
a thunderstorm complex is progged to move into our area later
tonight and could bring a round of strong thunderstorms to the
forecast area. timing would put it into the toledo and findlay
area around midnight or so but across the rest of the area during
the rest of the night.

outlook...non vfr likely early tuesday and again thursday in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

marine...
lake is going to get stirred up once again starting this
afternoon into tuesday. warm front is progged to move northeast
across the area this afternoon followed by a cold front later
tonight. as storm system moves through the area...surface isobar
gradient will tighten allowing winds to increase. will likely need
to hoist a small craft advisory lasting into tuesday due to the
winds. wind do diminish later in the day on tuesday becoming light
and variable tuesday night. the light wind flow continues through
much of wednesday with a brief increase wednesday night into
thursday morning as high pressure builds into the lakes area. but
then winds increase again on friday as low pressure passes to the
south of the lake.

&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 am to 2 pm edt tuesday for
lez147>149.

&&

$$
synopsis...kosarik/kubina
near term...kosarik/kubina
short term...kubina
long term...lombardy
aviation...lombardy
marine...lombardy

---

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1050 am edt mon jun 22 2015

update...

exceptionally strong wind fields (70-80 knots at 500 mb/55 knots at
700 mb/50 knots at 850 mb) for late june standards to translate
through lower michigan this evening. impressive (-80 c centroid on
ir) mcs upstream over midwest will dictate our severe weather
chances this afternoon into tonight. max 500 mb height falls will be
advancing east over lake superior later in the day.
unfortunately...radar trends of mcs continue to indicate a southeast
propagation along the instability/moisture gradient lined up. in
addition...impressive elevated warm layer is streaming out from
central plains...northeast through western ohio valley and into
southeast michigan. question is how much of a capping influence this
warm air will provide as warm front lifts north through southeast
michigan...as potentially 12 c at 700 mb advertised to sneak into
the i-94 corridor. on flip side...mid level lap rates will be
ramping up. full sunshine allowing for quick ramp up in temps...with
surface dew pts already 70+ f crossing the border. growing concern
the warm front will become active early this afternoon as it lifts
through southeast michigan...as mature mcs helps veer and increase
the low level flow more toward due southerly...helping provided
little added boost/convergence to bypass any cap before the good 700
mb warm layer arrives. 12z nam already behind with quad cities
activity...and thus not looking to be very useful. once warm frontal
activity rolls by...still potential for additional severe storms
with the cold front/main moisture axis late this evening. relatively
slow progression of the front to the southeast will pose flooding
threat with pw values at or above 2 inches. update will be tweak up
maxes/dew pts...along with putting severe mention in the zones. the
previous forecast of higher pops looks good...will even bump up
north half of the cwa to categorical.

---

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Statement as of 10:16 AM CDT on June 22, 2015

... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 1100 am CDT
for eastern Sauk... Columbia... Jefferson... western Walworth... Dodge...
Dane... rock and green counties...

At 1013 am CDT... severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Montello to near Sun Prairie to 6 miles south of
Edgerton to near Forreston... moving east at 60 mph. Widespread tree
and power line damage was reported in Iowa and Lafayette counties.

Hazard... 70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

Source... radar indicated.

Impact... expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also
likely to Mobile homes... roofs and outbuildings.

These severe storms will be near...
Milton and Edgerton around 1020 am CDT.
Marshall and Waterloo around 1025 am CDT.
Lake Mills around 1030 am CDT.
Whitewater around 1035 am CDT.
Watertown and Palmyra around 1040 am CDT.
Lac La Belle around 1050 am CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include East
Bristol... Mount Vernon... Shopiere... Pine Bluff... Millard... Lake Lac
La Belle... Johnstown Center... Fox Lake... Magnolia and Merrimac.

---

md 1118 concerning severe thunderstorm watch 331...332... for southern wi/northern il to northern indiana/lower mi/far northwest oh

mesoscale discussion 1118
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1100 am cdt mon jun 22 2015

areas affected...southern wi/northern il to northern indiana/lower
mi/far northwest oh

concerning...severe thunderstorm watch 331...332...

valid 221600z - 221800z

the severe weather threat for severe thunderstorm watch
331...332...continues.

summary...a corridor of damaging wind potential will remain a
concern across southeast wi and northern il into midday/early
afternoon. this mcs-related damaging wind potential likely to
develop into parts of northern indiana/lower mi/far northwest oh
this afternoon...where a new watch will likely be needed provided
mcs sustenance.

discussion...a well-organized/fast-moving quasi-linear mcs continues
to steadily progress east-southeastward across southeast wi and
northwest/north-central il as of 1045am cdt/1545z. a strong
descending rear-inflow jet and line-trailing cold pool/bubble high
remains readily evident in regional wsr-88d vwp/surface data across
east-central/northeast ia into southwest wi. ahead of the
quasi-linear mcs...temperatures continue to warm through the 70s f
across northern il into southeast wi...although low-level winds
across northern il have tended to veer over time with some probable
related weakening of line-relative inflow. there has been a recent
trend toward slightly warming cloud tops /albeit still very cold at
around -75c/ with a modest weakening of some of line-embedded
updrafts as of 1530z. even so...the fast-moving nature of the mcs
should continue line-embedded damaging wind potential...especially
across southeast wi and on the southwest-periphery of the convective
line across northwest/north-central il.

meanwhile...a warm front continues to shift northward/become
increasingly established into southern lower mi late this morning
with destabilization steadily occurring across northern
indiana/southern lower mi as of late morning/midday. continued cell
mergers and downstream destabilization may lead to a
persistence/reinvigoration of convection across lake mi...such that
a new watch will likely be needed for lower mi/northern indiana/far
northwest oh pending continued mcs sustenance.

..guyer.. 06/22/2015

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...dtx...iwx...grr...lot...ilx...mkx...dvn...

lat...lon 43298869 43868573 43488379 41668413 40878617 41199026
41679035 42298879 43298869

!https://farm1.staticflickr.com/463/18870488008_8e8c2f768a_o.gif

---

The MCS over northern IL and southern WI has weakened some, which was expected. But as the system moves eastward, it may encounter conditions that could lead to "reinvigoration."

From the 12:00 p.m. mesoscale discussion:

a warm front continues to shift northward/become increasingly established into southern lower mi late this morning with destabilization steadily occurring across northern indiana/southern lower mi as of late morning/midday.

continued cell mergers and downstream destabilization may lead to a persistence/reinvigoration of convection across lake mi ... such that a new watch will likely be needed for lower mi/northern indiana/ far northwest oh pending continued mcs sustenance.

12:40 p.m. radar snapshot

12:30 p.m. tweet by WTOL meteorologist Ryan Wichman:

Rough timeline for the 2 possible rounds of severe weather today: