Toledo weather tue jun 23 2015

#toledo #weather

md 1129 concerning severe potential...watch possible for parts of nrn oh

mesoscale discussion 1129
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0143 am cdt tue jun 23 2015

areas affected...parts of nrn oh

concerning...severe potential...watch possible

valid 230643z - 230845z

probability of watch issuance...40 percent

summary...a band of storms...currently located in southeast lower
mi...will continue to move to the ese at 40-45 kt exiting this
portion of ww 338 by 07z...and moving into the northern tier of oh
counties /along the south shore of lake erie/ between 07-08z. there
remains some uncertainty with the potential strength of these storms
after they cross lake erie...but a ww is being considered if
convective trends suggest storm intensities are not diminishing.

discussion...at 0620z...mosaic radar imagery showed a short band of
storms extending from far southwest ontario into far southeast lower
mi with this activity comprised of a recent merger of cold pool
enhanced storms with the activity tracking to the ese at 40-45 kt.
at this speed...damaging winds remain a threat prior to these storms
exiting ww 338 at 07z.

most convective allowing models suggest this current line of storms
moves across lake erie with some weakening trend. the downstream
environment across nrn ohio remains moderately unstable beneath the
ern extent of steep midlevel lapse rates. this combined with some
weak low-level waa and continued height falls as a shortwave trough
progresses ewd across northern ontario and the great lakes should
sustain storms as they move into northern oh. the degree of
near-surface stabilization is more uncertain which affects the
confidence in how intense this activity will be as it moves to the
ese. objective analyses suggest surface-based inhibition is
weak...and could support strong to severe wind gusts reaching the
surface. this potential is further enhanced by a band of strong wly
winds /50 kt/ between 1-3 km per kiwx vad/ spreading ewd and
potentially reaching the surface within any stronger downdrafts.

..peters/mead.. 06/23/2015

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...dtx...iwx...

lat...lon 41418453 41938346 42258257 42128148 41828087 41428099
41108130 40948211 40918269 40938348 41118402 41418453

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Areal Flood Warning
Statement as of 1:55 AM EDT on June 23, 2015

... A Flood Warning remains in effect until 1115 am EDT Tuesday for
southwestern Eaton... southern Barry... northern Kalamazoo... northern
Calhoun... southern Allegan and northern Van Buren counties...

At 146 am EDT... Doppler radar indicated storm total rainfall of 3 to
5 inches across the warned area. The heaviest amounts fell from
Richland to Gull Lake and Bedford... extending east toward Springport
and Rives Junction. Numerous roads are likely water covered with
portions of some roads impassable. Alternate routes may be needed
through the morning commute... so delays are possible on routes such
as M-89... M-78... and M-99 where areas of flooding are likely
occurring. Water should gradually recede later this morning.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Kalamazoo... Battle Creek... Charlotte... Albion... Marshall... Allegan...
South Haven... Plainwell... Eastwood... Westwood... Springfield...
Otsego... Galesburg... Bangor... Bellevue... Richland... Martin... greater
Galesburg... Brownlee Park and Level Park-Oak Park.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding. If flooding is observed act quickly. Move up to
higher ground to escape flood waters. Do not stay in areas subject to
flooding when water begins rising.

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Areal Flood Warning
Statement as of 2:00 AM EDT on June 23, 2015

... A Flood Warning remains in effect until noon EDT Tuesday for
southeastern Eaton... northern Jackson... southern Ingham and eastern
Calhoun counties...

At 155 am EDT... Doppler radar indicated 3 to 5 inches of storm total
rainfall across the warned area. Numerous areas of standing water
are likely occurring on area roadways. Some delays to the morning
commute are possible where flooding makes roadways impassable. The
most likely area for flooding is occurring between Springport and
Munith.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
northern Jackson... Eaton Rapids... Leslie... Stockbridge... Grass
Lake... Sandstone... Aurelius... Onondaga... Bunker Hill... Springport...
Parma... Dansville... Eden... Rives Junction... Fitchburg... topkins and
Munith.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding. If flooding is observed act quickly. Move up to
higher ground to escape flood waters. Do not stay in areas subject to
flooding when water begins rising.