Toledo weather fri jun 26 2015

#toledo #weather

flood watch
national weather service cleveland oh
501 am edt fri jun 26 2015

...flood threat saturday with low pressure system...

a strong low pressure system will track up the ohio valley on
friday night and deepen over northern ohio on saturday. steady
rainfall is expected through most of friday night and
saturday...with bouts of moderate to heavy rain. the low will be
slow moving...and an excessive amount of rain will fall across the
area within a relatively short time frame.

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-261715-
/o.new.kcle.fa.a.0003.150627t0000z-150628t0800z/
/00000.0.er.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.oo/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-
trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-
marion-morrow-holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-
southern erie-crawford pa-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon...
jefferson...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...medina...akron...
ravenna...warren...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...
ashland...wooster...canton...youngstown...marion...mount gilead...
millersburg...mount vernon...ashtabula...erie...edinboro...
meadville
501 am edt fri jun 26 2015

...flood watch in effect from this evening through late saturday
night...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a

• flood watch for portions of ohio and northwest pennsylvania...
  including the following areas...in ohio...ashland...ashtabula
  inland...ashtabula lakeshore...crawford...cuyahoga...erie oh...
  geauga...hancock...holmes...huron...knox...lake...lorain...
  lucas...mahoning...marion...medina...morrow...ottawa...
  portage...richland...sandusky...seneca...stark...summit...
  trumbull...wayne...wood and wyandot. in northwest
  pennsylvania...crawford pa...northern erie and southern erie.

• from this evening through late saturday night

• a slow moving low pressure will deepen across the area then
  linger through sunday...bringing steady rains. in general a
  widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain will fall by late saturday
  night.

• flooding...especially in urban areas...can occur very
  quickly...primarily at underpasses and poor drainage areas.
  quick rises on area creeks and streams will be likely from the
  heavy rainfall.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a flood watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. you should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. stay tuned to weather radio for further details or
updates

&&

$$

hazardous weather outlook
hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
502 am edt fri jun 26 2015

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-270915-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
502 am edt fri jun 26 2015

...flood watch in effect from this evening through late saturday
night...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

flood watch.

.days two through seven...saturday through thursday.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

flood watch.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

---

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
437 am edt fri jun 26 2015

synopsis...
a wave of low pressure will deepen into a closed low by friday
afternoon across eastern missouri. the low will track up the ohio
valley towards lake erie on saturday and strengthen into a large
frontal system. the low will linger across ohio through sunday. a
surface ridge will briefly build in monday night before another
weaker low dives out the upper midwest across northern ohio on
tuesday.

&&

near term /through tonight/...
a stationary front extending from the southern rockies to the
virginia piedmont will continue to bring periods of unsettled
weather across the midsection of the country today. the trend has
been for nocturnal disturbances to flare along the boundary and
propogate eastward. the nearest cluster of thunderstorms is located
across southern indiana. expect this area to glance the area with
mostly mid and high clouds for the first half of the day. swrn
part of the fa could even see a few light showers this morning.
next disturbance down the line arrives just after 18z in the fdy
and tol areas. this precip will be the precursor to the large low
pressure system that will begin to affect the area fri night.
increased pops out west to account for the earlier timing of the
rain/thunder...then steadily advance pops east through the
afternoon. of course eastern cities have the better chance of
seeing fewer clouds/precip initially during the day. highs were
adjusted down a few degrees in the western two thirds of the area
based on the earlier onset of clouds and rain.

&&

short term /saturday through sunday night/...
a series of disturbances embedded along a frontal boundary will
merge across the heartland and deepen as a 700mb trof drops se
from the upper midwest. ul jet location will be ideal for rapid
deepening of the sfc low which all models show happening. the
latest ec shows the low bottoming out at 995 mb across northern
ohio by saturday afternoon. the other available guidance isn't
too far off that mark. this would be an unseasonably deep low for
this time of year. guidance consistently shows 2 to 4 inches qpf
through late saturday night. given the relatively low capes...this
system should bring mostly non-convective steady rain with periods
of moderate to heavy rain. this will cut back on the flash flood
threat some. however...flooding is still a concern with steady
prolonged rains and saturated soils. a lull in the rain will
likely occur during the late afternoon with a dry slot...but rain
should pick up again with ample wraparound moisture and occlusion
of the low. a flood watch is in effect from 8pm sat to 4am sun.
the low eventually pulls out early sun morning and conditions
improve through the afternoon/evening as a ridge extension wedges
in from the south.

&&

long term /monday through thursday/...
unsettled weather is expected during the long term period as a
long wave trough gets established over the eastern conus. have
again been unable to find a dry period. differences between the
models remain this morning so confidence in timing the waves of
precip is low today. it appears best chances for precip will occur
tuesday and tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. this
front will cross the area sometime wednesday and then stall out.
below normal temperatures can be expected next week with highs
mainly in the middle 70s.

&&

aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
cigs have improved and most areas are now vfr. big question is how
long that will last...given the deep moisture just to the south
expect the southern taf sites to dip to mvfr with vsbys and cigs
overnight. conditions will improve to vfr during the morning
hours. precip will spread back across the area late in the taf
period beginning near kfdy later this afternoon. cigs should again
drop to mvfr soon after the precip starts. light and variable flow
will become e to ne during the day.

outlook...widespread non vfr expected friday night through sunday
in widespread rain.

&&

marine...
it will not be a good weekend for boating on lake erie.
east to northeast flow will develop today as low pressure heads
northeast out of the central plains. speeds will begin to increase
tonight and gales appear likely for saturday. per coordination with
yyz and dtx will go ahead and issue a gale watch. suspect day crew
will go with a warning in a few hours. will also have to worry
about lakeshore flooding especially given the water levels on the
lake. the surface low will pass just to the southeast of the lake
saturday night with the winds become northerly. speeds should
diminish after midnight. westerly flow will develop on sunday. a
ridge will cross the lake on monday briefly changing the flow to
southerly. another low will cross the lake monday night into
tuesday with winds again becoming westerly. will likely need small
craft headlines behind this system.

&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...flood watch from this evening through late saturday night for
ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...flood watch from this evening through late saturday night for
paz001>003.
marine...gale watch from saturday morning through late saturday night
for lez142>149-162>169.

&&

$$
synopsis...mayers
near term...mayers
short term...mayers
long term...kubina
aviation...kubina
marine...kubina