Toledo weather sun aug 23 2015

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
920 am edt sun aug 23 2015

synopsis...
a cold front will move east across the area today. high pressure
will build east into the region tonight. low pressure will move
southeast into the northern great lakes region and force a trough
of low pressure southeast across the region tuesday. the trough
will remain persistent through thursday morning as high pressure
gradually builds east toward the area thursday into friday.

&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
update...made several changes to clouds and pops through tonight
to attempt improve on timing and collaboration. also tapered pops
after midnight. capes fairly decent through the evening and into
the night but would expect some diurnal decrease in coverage with
best forcing north of the region so lowered thunder chances
(wording) after midnight. also looked out through the remainder of
the short term and chose to increase general cloud cover across
the region after tuesday morning as the upper low drops southeast
across the lakes and encroaches into the area.

previous discussion...

cold front is progged to move east across
the area today. moisture with the front is not all that extensive
and may limit the amount of showers and thunderstorms we get
through the day. qpf amounts should be light but i think we should
measure at all locations. that is why i am leaning in the
direction of likely pops across the entire area. leading edge of
precipitation should not arrive into the western portions of the
forecast area until this afternoon. activity over indiana at this
time is struggling to make eastward progress in the drier air.

latest spc outlook indicates extreme western portions of the
forecast area in a marginal risk area for severe weather. rest of
the forecast area remains in a general area for thunderstorms.

warm air advection and sunshine ahead of the front should help
push temperatures up into the 80s across the forecast area today.

&&

short term /6 pm this evening through wednesday night/...
the beginning of the downward slide will begin late tonight as an
upper level low pressure system moves southeast toward the area.
this overall pattern is indicative of a winter pattern as cold air
aloft and cyclonic flow over the forecast area will persist for a
lengthy period. hopefully...this is not a telltale sign of what is
to come for this winter. i would hate to get stuck in a pattern
like this so soon.

meanwhile...as surface high pressure tries to build east into the
area behind the cold front...surface trough of low pressure will
move southeast toward the area on monday and tuesday. this feature
along with the cyclonic flow will help to get the flow to become
well aligned up the lake to produce some lake effect clouds and
rain showers over the northeast portions of the forecast area.
rest of the forecast area should be primarily dry through this
forecast period. unfortunately...with the cool air advection
taking place...it is going to feel more like a day in late
september rather than late august.

gfs model appears to be on target with timing of the cold front
and clouds so will be leaning in that direction this morning.

temperatures will be on a gradual decline with low temperatures
falling into the 50s over the next several periods and highs in
the 70s and then lower 70s. keep in mind this is still august so
any sun will help boost temperatures fairly rapidly.

&&

long term /thursday through saturday/...
the models are a little slower at lifting out the deep trough aloft
in the middle of the week. some of the guidance shows one last short
wave diving into the trough wednesday night into thursday and will
keep a small chance of showers across extreme northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania on thursday. most of the area should be dry
but cool on thursday.

the surface high should be overhead by friday. after a cool start...
we should see temperatures make progress back toward normal. will
forecast highs mostly in the mid and upper 70s friday.

not as much confidence by the weekend. the ecmwf and gem focus most
of the active weather in the middle of the country where a short
wave is progged to cut off. the gfs is more zonal with several weak
short waves riding over the top of the ridge. moisture will be
limited. heights will likely be relatively high and the atmosphere
should remain relatively stable. unless the wave in the middle of
the country is more progressive than advertised...do not see enough
of a trigger to include showers in the forecast for now.

&&

aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
vfr conditions will continue until a cold front approaches late
this afternoon/evening. a scattered to broken line of showers and
thunderstorms is expected with the frontal passage across
northwest ohio late this afternoon or early this evening and early
tonight for northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. quick
clearing is expected behind the front tonight. vfr conditions will
continue into monday.

outlook...non vfr possible for keri tuesday and the snowbelt of
ne oh/nw pa wednesday.

&&

marine...
winds on lake erie are gradually veering more from the south and
speeds are relatively light and that will continue to be the case
today ahead of a cold front. the gradient should remain weak and
winds will likely not pick up much until the actual frontal passage.
in fact...on onshore flow will likely develop today on the east half
of the lake.

the cold front should cross the western basin this evening and move
east across the lake tonight. showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the front although the showers/storms may remain somewhat
scattered.

the overall weather pattern will become almost winter like this week
as a deep trough develops aloft and brisk southwest flow becomes
more west to northwest on the lake. a small craft advisory will be
needed...perhaps starting as early as monday and likely lasting
through mid week...especially on the east half of the lake.

&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...lombardy
near term...tk/lombardy
short term...lombardy
long term...kosarik
aviation...kosarik
marine...kosarik

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Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Aug 23, 2015 7:04 am

Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 82. South wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 59. West wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 73. West wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 12 to 17 mph in the afternoon.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 73. Southwest wind 6 to 14 mph becoming west in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.

#toledo #weather

Weather for Toledo More at Forecast.io
78°
and rising
Clear
Wind: 8 mph (S)
Today
84°60° Mon
76°57° Tue
73°56° Wed
75°54° Thu
73°52° Fri
77°56° Sat
84°60° Sun
85°61°

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