Toledo weather sun aug 23 2015

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fxus61 kcle 231320
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
920 am edt sun aug 23 2015

synopsis...
a cold front will move east across the area today. high pressure
will build east into the region tonight. low pressure will move
southeast into the northern great lakes region and force a trough
of low pressure southeast across the region tuesday. the trough
will remain persistent through thursday morning as high pressure
gradually builds east toward the area thursday into friday.

&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
update...made several changes to clouds and pops through tonight
to attempt improve on timing and collaboration. also tapered pops
after midnight. capes fairly decent through the evening and into
the night but would expect some diurnal decrease in coverage with
best forcing north of the region so lowered thunder chances
(wording) after midnight. also looked out through the remainder of
the short term and chose to increase general cloud cover across
the region after tuesday morning as the upper low drops southeast
across the lakes and encroaches into the area.

previous discussion...

cold front is progged to move east across
the area today. moisture with the front is not all that extensive
and may limit the amount of showers and thunderstorms we get
through the day. qpf amounts should be light but i think we should
measure at all locations. that is why i am leaning in the
direction of likely pops across the entire area. leading edge of
precipitation should not arrive into the western portions of the
forecast area until this afternoon. activity over indiana at this
time is struggling to make eastward progress in the drier air.

latest spc outlook indicates extreme western portions of the
forecast area in a marginal risk area for severe weather. rest of
the forecast area remains in a general area for thunderstorms.

warm air advection and sunshine ahead of the front should help
push temperatures up into the 80s across the forecast area today.

&&

short term /6 pm this evening through wednesday night/...
the beginning of the downward slide will begin late tonight as an
upper level low pressure system moves southeast toward the area.
this overall pattern is indicative of a winter pattern as cold air
aloft and cyclonic flow over the forecast area will persist for a
lengthy period. hopefully...this is not a telltale sign of what is
to come for this winter. i would hate to get stuck in a pattern
like this so soon.

meanwhile...as surface high pressure tries to build east into the
area behind the cold front...surface trough of low pressure will
move southeast toward the area on monday and tuesday. this feature
along with the cyclonic flow will help to get the flow to become
well aligned up the lake to produce some lake effect clouds and
rain showers over the northeast portions of the forecast area.
rest of the forecast area should be primarily dry through this
forecast period. unfortunately...with the cool air advection
taking place...it is going to feel more like a day in late
september rather than late august.

gfs model appears to be on target with timing of the cold front
and clouds so will be leaning in that direction this morning.

temperatures will be on a gradual decline with low temperatures
falling into the 50s over the next several periods and highs in
the 70s and then lower 70s. keep in mind this is still august so
any sun will help boost temperatures fairly rapidly.

&&

long term /thursday through saturday/...
the models are a little slower at lifting out the deep trough aloft
in the middle of the week. some of the guidance shows one last short
wave diving into the trough wednesday night into thursday and will
keep a small chance of showers across extreme northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania on thursday. most of the area should be dry
but cool on thursday.

the surface high should be overhead by friday. after a cool start...
we should see temperatures make progress back toward normal. will
forecast highs mostly in the mid and upper 70s friday.

not as much confidence by the weekend. the ecmwf and gem focus most
of the active weather in the middle of the country where a short
wave is progged to cut off. the gfs is more zonal with several weak
short waves riding over the top of the ridge. moisture will be
limited. heights will likely be relatively high and the atmosphere
should remain relatively stable. unless the wave in the middle of
the country is more progressive than advertised...do not see enough
of a trigger to include showers in the forecast for now.

&&

aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
vfr conditions will continue until a cold front approaches late
this afternoon/evening. a scattered to broken line of showers and
thunderstorms is expected with the frontal passage across
northwest ohio late this afternoon or early this evening and early
tonight for northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. quick
clearing is expected behind the front tonight. vfr conditions will
continue into monday.

outlook...non vfr possible for keri tuesday and the snowbelt of
ne oh/nw pa wednesday.

&&

marine...
winds on lake erie are gradually veering more from the south and
speeds are relatively light and that will continue to be the case
today ahead of a cold front. the gradient should remain weak and
winds will likely not pick up much until the actual frontal passage.
in fact...on onshore flow will likely develop today on the east half
of the lake.

the cold front should cross the western basin this evening and move
east across the lake tonight. showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the front although the showers/storms may remain somewhat
scattered.

the overall weather pattern will become almost winter like this week
as a deep trough develops aloft and brisk southwest flow becomes
more west to northwest on the lake. a small craft advisory will be
needed...perhaps starting as early as monday and likely lasting
through mid week...especially on the east half of the lake.

&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...lombardy
near term...tk/lombardy
short term...lombardy
long term...kosarik
aviation...kosarik
marine...kosarik

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Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Aug 23, 2015 7:04 am

Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 82. South wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 59. West wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 73. West wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 12 to 17 mph in the afternoon.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 73. Southwest wind 6 to 14 mph becoming west in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.

#toledo #weather

Weather for Toledo More at Forecast.io
78°
and rising
Clear
Wind: 8 mph (S)
Today
84°60° Mon
76°57° Tue
73°56° Wed
75°54° Thu
73°52° Fri
77°56° Sat
84°60° Sun
85°61°

---

spc ac 231626

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1126 am cdt sun aug 23 2015

valid 231630z - 241200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over parts of lwr mi...nrn
ind...and nw oh...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms over parts of grt lks and oh
vly...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms over parts of the south...

...summary...
strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will move east across
parts of michigan and the mid-ohio valley today with a risk mainly
for locally damaging wind. a few storms with strong winds also may
occur over parts of the south.

...synoptic setup...
potent nrn mn upr low/trough expected to cross the international
border into srn ont later today...with the system likely to assume
more of a negative tilt as associated speed max now entering srn mn
sweeps ese to srn wi/srn lk mi by eve. the low should reform ese
across ern lk superior early mon as heights rebound in its wake over
the rckys and intermountain west. farther s...at least two weak
disturbances...one now over ar and the other over ern al... should
track generally ese in the weaker srn stream.

sfc low associated with mn system will slowly fill as it continues
across wrn ont today. trailing cold front should accelerate e across
lwr mi and the mid oh vly this aftn as lwr tropospheric flow becomes
more wly over wi/nrn il. across the south...weak front/composite
outflow boundary now extending from the arklatex ese to cntrl ga
expected to settle only slowly s through the period.

...mi/mid oh vly this aftn/eve...
band of strong dcva associated with srn mn speed max will align with
sfc cold front over ern lk mi/wrn lwr mi later day. coupled with max
sfc heating...setup may support intensification of existing lines of
convection/storms along the front...and possibly the development of
additional activity farther e.

ample /30-40 kt/ sw to wswly deep shear will be present for
sustained storms/supercells as 700-500 mb speeds increase to around
40 kts. aftn destabilization will...however...remain somewhat
tempered by relatively narrow/modest axis of pre-frontal moisture
return. although pw should increase to aoa 1.50 inches per latest
obs...mid-lvl lapse rates are expected to remain weak. in fact...500
mb temperatures may slightly rise over the region this aftn based on
the 12z raob data and ecmwf fcst. nevertheless...combination of
strengthening forcing for ascent with modest low-lvl moistening /sfc
dewpoints increasing into low 60s f/ may prove sufficient for a
couple lines of low-topped convection/storms capable of locally dmgg
wind and possibly a tornado or two. this threat should be greatest
late this aftn over the ern half of lwr mi...and perhaps nrn ind/nw
oh.

...arklatex ese into ga this aftn...
sctd aftn storms/storm clusters with a potential for occasional
strong gusts may develop along diffuse front/composite outflow
boundary extending from ne tx ese to the lwr savannah rvr vly. in
addition to sfc heating...development may be augmented by
aforementioned upr impulses over ar and al...with storm organization
fostered by associated belt of slightly enhanced /25 kt/ wnwly
mid-lvl flow. the portion of the outflow boundary in srn ar/nw ms
may continue advancing sewd through early this aftn until related
mesohigh further weakens. the remainder of the
boundary...meanwhile...should remain nearly stnry.

..corfidi/jirak.. 08/23/2015

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 2000z

---

md 1744 concerning severe potential...watch possible for lower mi...nrn ind...nwrn oh

mesoscale discussion 1744
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1212 pm cdt sun aug 23 2015

areas affected...lower mi...nrn ind...nwrn oh

concerning...severe potential...watch possible

valid 231712z - 231845z

probability of watch issuance...40 percent

summary...strong to marginally svr wind gusts will be possible
throughout the afternoon across lower mi into nrn ind and nwrn oh.
trends will be monitored for a possible watch over the next 1-2 hrs.

discussion...a pre-frontal and fairly disorganized line of tstms has
entered wrn lower mi...with trailing synoptic cold front across lake
mi into cntrl il. modest destabilization is occurring ahead of the
line into nrn ind...as temperatures warming into the upper 70s to
lower 80s are yielding mlcape values approaching 500 j/kg. gradual
intensification of the pre-frontal convective line is possible over
the next couple hrs...with the predominant threat being strong to
locally dmgg wind gusts...given 20-40 kt of low-midlevel flow
observed in grr vwp data. a brief/weak tornado is also possible. the
primary limiting factor will be the marginal thermodynamic
environment...which makes watch issuance uncertain...but convective
trends are being monitored.

..rogers/corfidi.. 08/23/2015

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...iln...dtx...apx...iwx...grr...ind...lot...

lat...lon 42618318 41018399 40398563 40608666 40978726 42208628
43218570 44088546 44548528 44538405 43748311 43448303
42618318

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