Toledo weather Sep 11, 2015

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Sep 11, 2015 9:47 pm

Tonight: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. North wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64. North wind 13 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Northwest wind 8 to 13 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. West wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light southwest.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 73.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 78.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 57.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 81.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 61.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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link
fxus61 kcle 120223
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1023 pm edt fri sep 11 2015

synopsis...
a cold front will move east of the area overnight. a deepening
trough aloft will be slow to move east this weekend and chilly
weather will prevail. high pressure will build east across the
area by monday. the high will become nearly stationary over the
appalachian mountains by mid week and a warmer southwest flow will
develop.

&&

near term /until 6 am saturday morning/...
short wave evident on the water vapor loop rounding the bottom of
the trough and deepening the trough. this has slowed the
advancement of the rain just a bit. slowed the eastward movement
in the forecast overnight by an hour or two. most areas from north
central and northeast oh and northwest pa will see showers much of
the remainder of the night although by morning we should be in
more of a lake enhanced event. with the north flow... the best
showers could linger from norwalk to ashland to cleveland and the
snowbelt.

since the weather has been dry across most of northeast
oh and northwest pa the last 6-8 weeks... we can accommodate a
fair amount of rain. will have to monitor the qpf in the heavier
lake enhanced bands that may develop.

made a few minor adjustments to overnight temps...the air mass is
relatively uniform with the clouds... breeze and showers. lows in
the 50s except at the immediate lakeshore.

&&

short term /6 am saturday morning through monday night/...
another deep digging upper level trough will settle in over the
great lakes region. this feature is not expected to be long lived
as the upper level pattern remains progressive. the upper level
low will keep cold air advection across the forecast area through
the weekend along with low level cyclonic flow around low pressure
that is progged to move north up the appalachian mountains at the
surface. this will keep a flow of low level moisture out of the
north on the back side of the low pressure system. the cyclonic
flow will continue to produce some showers across the eastern half
of the area but most of it will be synoptic in nature. there is a
possibility that some lake enhancement could occur causing
slightly higher qpf amounts in the higher elevations to the east.
the rest of the area should remain on the fringes of the
precipitation threat and therefore will have lighter precipitation
chances.

the other issue that may just be confined to the water of lake
erie is the potential for some thunderstorms. instability will be
the greatest over the water during the weekend. another threat for
the land portions near the lake is the possibility for
waterspouts as showers develop and move inland. all of these
threats will last through the day sunday.

then...as high pressure builds east toward the forecast area and
upper level and surface lows move out to the east...the threat for
precipitation will gradually diminish sunday into monday. a return
to fair weather is expected on monday and monday night with the
approaching high.

temperatures will be on the cool side in the cold air advection
but as high moves east of the region...a return back to warm air
advection is expected late monday into tuesday.

&&

long term /tuesday through friday/...
above normal conditions return by mid week. models in good
agreement with high pressure anchored over the upper ohio
valley/lower lakes to start long term forecast. high drifts slowly
east and moves off the mid atlantic coast by end of work week
allowing next front to move into the area. ecmwf continues to be
faster with the next system than the gfs but both models move next
wave of precip into the area during the day friday...and lingering
into the weekend. but this far out will just go with low chance
pops.

&&

aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
the surface cold front has cleared the area with northerly flow at
all areas. most of the area continues to see showers. most of the
area is vfr but there are pockets of mvfr and even ifr floating
around. think cigs will gradually deteriorate overnight with most
areas settling into mvfr. think the ifr weather will be short
lived where it does develop. northerly flow will continue the
entire period so no clearing is expected even though slightly
drier air will move in tomorrow. eastern areas will see scattered
showers most of saturday with mainly mvfr weather. winds overnight
will mainly be 10 knots or less but some gusts to 20 knots are
expected on saturday...especially closer to lake erie.

outlook...non vfr continuing through the weekend...especially for ne
oh and nw pa in scattered showers/tsra.

&&

marine...
cold front over central lake erie will move east of the lake early
this evening. small craft advisory will likely be needed for the
entire weekend. as the front moves across the lake the winds will
turn to the north and increase to 10 to 20 knots tonight and to 15
to 25 knots saturday. tomorrow 850mb temps plunge to 6-8c and an
upper level short wave will move slowly across the lake. this will
produce lake effect showers and thunderstorms and potential for
water spouts.

&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt sunday for lez142>149.

&&

$$
synopsis...kosarik
near term...kosarik
short term...lombardy
long term...djb
aviation...kubina
marine...djb

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TOL :
Sep 11, 2015 10:52 pm
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 59 F
Humidity : 90%
Wind Speed : NE 8 mph
Barometer : 29.93 in
Dewpoint: 56 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
External Link : 3-day history

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fzus51 kcle 120153
nshcle

nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
953 pm edt fri sep 11 2015

for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie

lez142-143-120815-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
953 pm edt fri sep 11 2015

..small craft advisory in effect through sunday afternoon...

overnight...north winds 10 to 20 knots becoming northeast.
mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers with isolated
thunderstorms. waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.

saturday...north winds 15 to 20 knots. mostly cloudy with a
chance of rain showers. a chance of waterspouts. waves 3 to 5 feet.

saturday night...north winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest
10 to 20 knots. mostly cloudy. a chance of waterspouts. waves
3 to 5 feet.

sunday...northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. mostly cloudy in the
morning...then becoming mostly sunny. a chance of waterspouts.
waves subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.

winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for monday through wednesday.

the water temperature off toledo is 71 degrees...off cleveland 76
degrees and off erie 76 degrees.

$$

lez144>149-120815-
the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh-
avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-
geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny-
953 pm edt fri sep 11 2015

..small craft advisory in effect through sunday afternoon...

overnight...north winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northeast.
rain showers with isolated thunderstorms. waves 3 to 5 feet
building to 4 to 6 feet.

saturday...north winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 15 to
25 knots. cloudy with a chance of rain showers. a chance of
waterspouts. waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.

saturday night...north winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest.
cloudy with a chance of rain showers. a chance of waterspouts.
waves 4 to 6 feet.

sunday...northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. rain showers likely. a
chance of waterspouts. waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to
5 feet.

winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for monday through wednesday.

the water temperature off toledo is 71 degrees...off cleveland 76
degrees and off erie 76 degrees.

$$

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