Toledo Weather - Tue, Oct 13, 2015

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
415 am edt tue oct 13 2015

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-140915-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
crawford pa-
415 am edt tue oct 13 2015

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

no hazardous weather is expected today or tonight.

.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.

below normal temperatures are expected this weekend. widespread
frost and as well as freezing temperatures are probable sunday
morning...as temperatures plunge into the lower 30s.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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TOL reported 58 degrees at 4:52 a.m.

TOL:
Oct 13, 2015 6:52 am
Weather : Mostly Cloudy
Temperature : 53 F
Humidity : 69%
Wind Speed : W 13 mph
Barometer : 29.54 in
Dewpoint: 43 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

(near Lambertville)
Oct 13, 2015 6:55 am
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 55 F
Humidity : 67%
Wind Speed : W 6 mph
Barometer : 29.53 in
Dewpoint: 44 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

TOL reported 52 degrees at 8:52 a.m.

TOL:
Oct 13, 2015 5:52 pm
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 56 F
Humidity : 67%
Wind Speed : W 16 mph
Barometer : 29.71 in
Dewpoint: 45 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

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The best chance for a frost/freeze will occur on Sunday morning.

Toledo forecast as of 6:26 p.m., Tue, Oct 13, 2015:

• Saturday morning, October 17: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35.
• Sunday morning, October 18: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.

From the Cle NWS:

frost will probably not be a problem yet on friday night as winds stay up enough.

looking at frost/freeze conditions for all but the immediate lakeshore region where some winds/clouds/and slightly warmer temperatures are expected.

The Lake Erie water temperature off toledo is 59 degrees.

Some light lake effect snow is possible this weekend in the snowbelt area of northwest Pennsylvania.

Maps showing average dates for the region's first frost and freeze:

• http://www.weather.gov/iwx/Frost_Freeze_Fall
• http://www.weather.gov/dtx/firstFallfreeze

Earlier this month, NOAA and NASA confirmed that a strong El Nino is expected to occur this winter. That should kibosh the snow and cold that we experienced the last two winters. For this winter, we could be warmer and dryer than normal.

Oct 8, 2015 NOAA post

Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.

All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere [through] spring 2016.

Outlooks generally favor below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation over the northern tier of the United States.

NASA post from earlier this month:

The latest analyses from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and from NASA confirm that El Niño is strengthening and it looks a lot like the strong event that occurred in 1997–98.

This winter's El Nino could be the strongest since the 1997-1998 El Nino winter.

When I hear about El Nino, I think of Chris Farley who died in December 1997.

#toledo #weather